Will Bitcoin become antiquated and lose its first mover advantage?

[everybet]

It's been just about 10 years since the introduction of Bitcoin, the introduction of blockchain technology, and the introduction of a digital and decentralized currency (thanks Satoshi & his inspirations). Bitcoin has held dominance since its inception. We know this. There are tons of extremely bright and passionate core developers who have been there since the near beginning and continue to develop. Large companies/corporations, successful technology entrepreneurs continue to advocate Bitcoin, so on and so forth.

It seems as though not only the need for a decentralized digital currency is there, but an increasing want for it too. Let's try to put the market aspect of things aside, for the sake of this topic.

How could new companies/projects render Bitcoin obsolete?

The desire is there, for some. Those who think that Bitcoin is a dinosaur, and want it to be an antiquated technology.

Do you think it's possible? Very likely? I'd love to hear opinions and insights.

[mk4]

How could new companies/projects render Bitcoin obsolete?

The projects basically needs to beat bitcoin in the categories it is good at:

Decentralization: Bitcoin is simply far more decentralized compared to most, if not all projects. The fact that bitcoin doesn't even have a CEO and an "official" team, hence there isn't a single point of failure, is a big factor that's often overlooked.

Adoption & Network effect: Bitcoin is simply the most globally adopted cryptocurrency we have right now; probably followed by ETH(which is a coin that's not made for payments in the first place); and also that bitcoin is definitely the project that has actually real innovation taking place. 

..and some other things

Do you think it's possible? Very likely? I'd love to hear opinions and insights.

Of course. It's definitely not impossible for someone to create a better technology that can beat bitcoin in most categories. Though it's definitely quite unlikely in the near future; simply because bitcoin is far ahead over most if not all cryptocurrencies that has the same goal as bitcoin.

[BuyBuyBitcoin]

simply because bitcoin is far ahead over most if not all cryptocurrencies that has the same goal as bitcoin.

That and the massive network effect that doesn't "automatically" move because a better widget was built.

The products and services using bitcoin would all have to move to a new coin

The owners of bitcoin would have to move to this new coin

The wallets everyone uses would have to store this new coin

Making all of the people and businesses that value bitcoin as a decentralized store of wealth, somehow value a new coin on the block, would be almost impossible.

[pooya87]

the advantage of bitcoin has never been the "first mover" thing at all. in fact bitcoin is not even the first of its kind! the advantage has always been that bitcoin is working as it should because it is designed with those purposes (decentralization, being a currency, being permissionless,...) in mind.
meanwhile the competition which you think is competition has mostly been created with money making purposes in mind which is why there has never been any serious competition apart from pumpers that come close and then fall down to oblivion.

[amishmanish]

For bitcoin to become "antiquated", another cryptocurrency needs to come up with better fundamentals. The fundamentals of Bitcoin are:
1. A solid, constantly evolving codebase and team.
2. Proof of Work.

It can be argued that over time, Proof of Work has created mining centralization. The biggest mining equipment manufacturers, miners as well as cheap providers of Hydroelectricity are in China. Even then, the economic incentive for honest mining is too high for miners to go against their self-interest. In a way, any system can be gamed. What is clear from evidence is that PoW is the one which is hardest/ costliest to game, especially when established with a network effect of Bitcoin's scale. Can someone come up with a better consensus mechanism? Or is there a better one? Hard to say for future but looking at how Nano and IOTA have devolved, it can be said safely that PoW is not getting trumped anytime soon.

The other most important thing is the entities behind the codebase. It is often argued that the reference implementation is too guarded and rights are concentrated within an elite circle. But then, every other alternate cryptocurrency will have a team behind it. Can those teams be trusted more than the group behind Bitcoin who have established their reputation through timely interventions and commitments over the past 10 years? In my opinion, any other cryptocurrency will find it hard, nearly impossible to create such a trusted team and open-source codebase. (Something with which individuals and institutions can trust their fiat billions).

As long as these factors remain, there is hardly any chance for another cryptocurrency to take away the crown of being the most dependent and usable digital currency. In terms of alternate blockchain uses, well that is a completely different market. Those areas are still open waiting for their own crown-bearers.

[everybet]

How could new companies/projects render Bitcoin obsolete?

The projects basically needs to beat bitcoin in the categories it is good at:

Decentralization: Bitcoin is simply far more decentralized compared to most, if not all projects. The fact that bitcoin doesn't even have a CEO and an "official" team, hence there isn't a single point of failure, is a big factor that's often overlooked.

I like this ideology the most, out of all. The fact that Satoshi is completely unknown- the fact that there couldn't be a better figure (or lack thereof) to represent a true and decentralized project.. it's enormous. You can see the level of unrelenting heroism that people see, and cult-like respect for certain project leaders (like Vitalik Buterin for Ethereum) and the amount of power they hold in their word regarding the project(s) they've created..

Do you think it's possible? Very likely? I'd love to hear opinions and insights.

Of course. It's definitely not impossible for someone to create a better technology that can beat bitcoin in most categories. Though it's definitely quite unlikely in the near future; simply because bitcoin is far ahead over most if not all cryptocurrencies that has the same goal as bitcoin.

Fair enough. Are there any certain companies that you visualize doing this? Amazon? Facebook? Any particular traditional tech giant? With Bitcoin being open source, do you think that these companies are just waiting for the right moment to utilize the code that developers before them have created in order to build something better, in an easier fashion?

[BuyBuyBitcoin]

Of course. It's definitely not impossible for someone to create a better technology that can beat bitcoin in most categories. Though it's definitely quite unlikely in the near future; simply because bitcoin is far ahead over most if not all cryptocurrencies that has the same goal as bitcoin.

Fair enough. Are there any certain companies that you visualize doing this? Amazon? Facebook? Any particular traditional tech giant? With Bitcoin being open source, do you think that these companies are just waiting for the right moment to utilize the code that developers before them have created in order to build something better, in an easier fashion?

lol

It's not anything like tech companies, that's like assuming a bank will build a better bitcoin....

POW, Decentralization, Security are the VALUABLE things someone else needs to somehow make better. Then create a bigger network effect with all of the infrastructure and adopters already in the space.

Good luck searching for something that isn't coming....

[Kakmakr]

Let's take Nokia as an example here. They came from a small rubber manufacturing plant in the 70's to a global giant in a few years and they are almost non-existent now. Why did this happen? Well, they could not keep up with the competition <introduction of better phones in the form of the iPhone>

Bitcoin on the other hand are constantly being updated and improved and they are staying in front of their competition. If they can sustain the status quo with development and innovation, then Bitcoin will stay in front. 

[elastiman]

I think bitcoin is always going be number 1. It is like coke or Mcdonalds they are the first of their kind forever

[Coyster]

Before any company or Industry can render the bitcoin obsolete it'll have to be in the same line as it,and that's it'll have to be a decentralized/digital cryptocurrency..
For example Samsung definitely cannot render a pizza company obsolete,they both provide different services to their respective customers..

With that being said,is there any cryptocurrency or any digital/decentralized currency that comes close to the bitcoin,be it in price,volume,stability,value etc
You and i know the answer to that and it's a big no..
Thus I doubt the bitcoin/blockchain technology is ever going obsolete...

[franky1]

its actually much simpler then people think

most spending happens via merchant services offered by coinbase and bitpay and other shopping cart offering services
as for exchanges. they are just exchanges

for UTILITY purposes. you just have to make another coin more acceptable by merchants/customers by slowing offering an alternative and then cutting down on bitcoin acceptance

EG if coinbase/bitpay stuck with just bitcoin. it would be hard for othr alts to get a chance. but now. its easier

for TRADING purposes. you just have to make another coins tradable withing exchanges, by slowing offering an alternative coins and then slowly cut down on bitcoin acceptance.

EG if exchanges stuck with just bitcoin<>usd. it would be hard for other alts to get a chance but now its easier

now here is the crux
check out this puppetmaster's controlling hand
www.dcg.co/portfolio

[jseverson]

How could new companies/projects render Bitcoin obsolete?

The desire is there, for some. Those who think that Bitcoin is a dinosaur, and want it to be an antiquated technology.

Do you think it's possible? Very likely? I'd love to hear opinions and insights.

I don't think it's possible unless someone somehow reworks the blockchain in a way that it keeps all of the advantages of the current system, except scalable, energy efficient, immune to 51% attacks, and completely incompatible with the current Bitcoin. There's also development stalling, but I find that unlikely.

But yeah, as antiquated as Bitcoin may seem, there's really nothing out there that's objectively leaps better. Being a work in progress, it can also always bridge gaps with further development.

[mk4]

Fair enough. Are there any certain companies that you visualize doing this? Amazon? Facebook? Any particular traditional tech giant? With Bitcoin being open source, do you think that these companies are just waiting for the right moment to utilize the code that developers before them have created in order to build something better, in an easier fashion?

While I'm not saying it's impossible for some tech giant company to create their own version of bitcoin or some other cryptocurrency, it's probably a bit unlikely. One of the main advantages of bitcoin is it being decentralized. One centralized authority creating their own bitcoin would defeat that purpose.

[randythered]

First mover advantage is something that will diminish over time, bitcoin eventually may be a victim of its own success, because you can be sure many of its competitors wouldn't have been able to continue to exist without the success of bitcoin. In time there seems some inevitability that a coin will usurp bitcoin because like all industries, crypto is constantly evolving, not only from the development side but also from the demand from users.

[dothebeats]

I don't think it will be easy for bitcoin to lose its advantage over any other cryptocurrency. For you to overtake bitcoin in terms of dominance, you need not only improve on technicalities and specifications but also convince people that your coin is far superior and better than bitcoin in all aspects. It's a hard task, considering that this involves a great deal of conditioning the minds of the masses, and we all know that not everyone can easily be swayed by random blabbering by devs and their peers. It is possible to defeat bitcoin in terms of dominance, though in what manner is probably a question that none of us can answer in the mean time.

[everybet]

the advantage of bitcoin has never been the "first mover" thing at all. in fact bitcoin is not even the first of its kind! the advantage has always been that bitcoin is working as it should because it is designed with those purposes (decentralization, being a currency, being permissionless,...) in mind.
meanwhile the competition which you think is competition has mostly been created with money making purposes in mind which is why there has never been any serious competition apart from pumpers that come close and then fall down to oblivion.

Very fair points, and it's definitely what I've/we've seen over the last year alone in massive amounts- companies with clear monetary interests over all else. Bitcoin has held its dominance since inception. I suppose it's easy to market something as, The Next Bitcoin! Thanks for sharing.

For bitcoin to become "antiquated", another cryptocurrency needs to come up with better fundamentals. The fundamentals of Bitcoin are:
1. A solid, constantly evolving codebase and team.
2. Proof of Work.

It can be argued that over time, Proof of Work has created mining centralization. The biggest mining equipment manufacturers, miners as well as cheap providers of Hydroelectricity are in China. Even then, the economic incentive for honest mining is too high for miners to go against their self-interest. In a way, any system can be gamed. What is clear from evidence is that PoW is the one which is hardest/ costliest to game, especially when established with a network effect of Bitcoin's scale. Can someone come up with a better consensus mechanism? Or is there a better one? Hard to say for future but looking at how Nano and IOTA have devolved, it can be said safely that PoW is not getting trumped anytime soon.

The other most important thing is the entities behind the codebase. It is often argued that the reference implementation is too guarded and rights are concentrated within an elite circle. But then, every other alternate cryptocurrency will have a team behind it. Can those teams be trusted more than the group behind Bitcoin who have established their reputation through timely interventions and commitments over the past 10 years? In my opinion, any other cryptocurrency will find it hard, nearly impossible to create such a trusted team and open-source codebase. (Something with which individuals and institutions can trust their fiat billions).

As long as these factors remain, there is hardly any chance for another cryptocurrency to take away the crown of being the most dependent and usable digital currency. In terms of alternate blockchain uses, well that is a completely different market. Those areas are still open waiting for their own crown-bearers.

This is an excellent answer, and explains in convincing detail how the "antiquated" idea in terms of Bitcoin becoming "obsolete" is extremely minimal in probability, with all of the fundamentals it has created and has built upon. I suppose it's extremely unnecessary for any particular person/company to even attempt to compete with Bitcoin, unless it's for monetary incentives. If not, well, why not just contribute to Bitcoin?

I don't think it will be easy for bitcoin to lose its advantage over any other cryptocurrency. For you to overtake bitcoin in terms of dominance, you need not only improve on technicalities and specifications but also convince people that your coin is far superior and better than bitcoin in all aspects. It's a hard task, considering that this involves a great deal of conditioning the minds of the masses, and we all know that not everyone can easily be swayed by random blabbering by devs and their peers. It is possible to defeat bitcoin in terms of dominance, though in what manner is probably a question that none of us can answer in the mean time.

It seems as though that the ONLY plausible reason for separate companies or person(s) to try and convince the masses that a separate technology/cryptocurrency is better is for their own economic/wealth benefit- and will require a mass amount of marketing. Which is another reason why Bitcoin could remain dominant, as there's not a CEO to hype it up- it's all been an effort of communities much like this, with its own true (and continuing) network effect.

[btc-room101]

How could new companies/projects render Bitcoin obsolete?

The projects basically needs to beat bitcoin in the categories it is good at:

Decentralization: Bitcoin is simply far more decentralized compared to most, if not all projects. The fact that bitcoin doesn't even have a CEO and an "official" team, hence there isn't a single point of failure, is a big factor that's often overlooked.

I like this ideology the most, out of all. The fact that Satoshi is completely unknown- the fact that there couldn't be a better figure (or lack thereof) to represent a true and decentralized project.. it's enormous. You can see the level of unrelenting heroism that people see, and cult-like respect for certain project leaders (like Vitalik Buterin for Ethereum) and the amount of power they hold in their word regarding the project(s) they've created..

Do you think it's possible? Very likely? I'd love to hear opinions and insights.

Of course. It's definitely not impossible for someone to create a better technology that can beat bitcoin in most categories. Though it's definitely quite unlikely in the near future; simply because bitcoin is far ahead over most if not all cryptocurrencies that has the same goal as bitcoin.

Fair enough. Are there any certain companies that you visualize doing this? Amazon? Facebook? Any particular traditional tech giant? With Bitcoin being open source, do you think that these companies are just waiting for the right moment to utilize the code that developers before them have created in order to build something better, in an easier fashion?

AMAZON is NSA, GOOGLE is NSA ( putin said so ), Ali-Baba is CP, Jack-Ma who owns baba owns all the mining asic and mining hw companys in china, Bezo's of AMZN is tight with Jack-Ma,

BITCOIN is NSA 100%,

The blue-pill in the matrix is to make you think that bitcoin comes from the people, the red-pill says that BITCOIN is owned and controlled by NSA/CIA/CP, and all under the umbrella of BIS.

Facebooks job is to put 'social credit scores' on everybody on the earth, where if you don't 'think right', then no shopping for you. No travel,  china has already implemented this and its coming to USA and west.

BITMAIN now makes more AI chip camera video scanners than they do miners, these cameras can determine your face and your gait whether your a good or bad person, NSA/CIA has long had cameras cataloging people by the way they walk (gait), in actuality CP ( chinese-party ), and Deep-State (cia/nsa) have the same owners, BIS ( bank of international settlements ) switzerland. People who financed both WW2 hitler to power & Mao (CP).

[BuyBuyBitcoin]

for UTILITY purposes. you just have to make another coin more acceptable by merchants/customers by slowing offering an alternative and then cutting down on bitcoin acceptance

What about the trust and security? 

It's assumed the bitcoin holders are going to not only trust but make the effort to adopt this new coin huh.

Will it be decentralized and more secure somehow?

Will a better development team in cryptography somehow just pop up out of nowhere?

The best developers in that space are in bitcoin. Then it can be argued over the top 20 alts (none that "compete" with bitcoin) who the "best" developers in CRYPTOGRAPHIC development protocols are.

The best developers in this space can't be hired for less than $1mil a year. It is slim pickings for a project to start something new and innovative that will somehow disrupt bitcoin.

[waterman]

It can happen but there it has to be a lot of bad reputation, bad news, scams, hacks... In some countries Pepsi is number 1 now and coke number 2

[BuyBuyBitcoin]

In some countries Pepsi is number 1 now and coke number 2

It's still not number 1 after over 100 years of trying...