BITCOIN: This Bubble is Different

[pixie85]

Today BITCOIN has collapsed down 90% year-2-date, and still dropping like a rock from a hot-air balloon.

You never measure loss over a period of 1 year because it's meaningless. It can be more than 100% yearly loss and many stocks have experienced it! A cycle in traditional markets usually takes much longer than 1 year. Sometimes more than 10 years. Are you trying to intentionally make it look worse than it is?

The problem now is there are 1,000's of lawsuits pending all over the world, because some +$500 BILLION was lost, some speculate over $800 Billion. Gone evaporated, which means millions of people lost their lost savings, they are angry, they are mad, and they will seek restitution.

The money is never lost! It only goes from one asset to the other. It changes form but it isn't lost. If somebody bought Bitcoin high and sold low his money did not disappear. It changed its form from digital decentralized money into fiat money. You can't sue anybody for being an idiot who buys high and sells low.

[xWolfx]

The money is never lost! It only goes from one asset to the other. It changes form but it isn't lost. If somebody bought Bitcoin high and sold low his money did not disappear. It changed its form from digital decentralized money into fiat money. You can't sue anybody for being an idiot who buys high and sells low.

Sounds simple right? Yet i'm surprised about how hard it is to understand for some minds though. I believe however that people will start to notice something about it in the future and slowly but surely get more traction while we go towards mass adoption of the currency itself.

The best part of it is that whether people look for profits or help improve the world a bit, everybody will win.

[allthingsluxury]

I've seen this rise and fall so many times now, the long term holders and investors in the REAL economy of crypto will succeed. Cryptos are here to stay. They are the evolution of money.

[pooya87]

Today BITCOIN has collapsed down 90% year-2-date, and still dropping like a rock from a hot-air balloon.

You never measure loss over a period of 1 year because it's meaningless. It can be more than 100% yearly loss and many stocks have experienced it! A cycle in traditional markets usually takes much longer than 1 year. Sometimes more than 10 years. Are you trying to intentionally make it look worse than it is?

some people can't see the trends on time, they are always late and switch directions way too late. in case of OP he is obviously just realized that he has lost money because he bought in to the "actual" bubble and never changed his direction with the market an now that we are already 85% below the ATH he has realized there was a bubble and now started to change his direction missing the fact that he is once again too late since the downtrend is almost done!

[jessyj48]

Buying high and selling low is your choice to make and no one will get arrested for that ,this bubble is indeed different I bet before we see another bullrun will take years and many who think they are strong now will eventually give up ,this will be the longest bearish market in history of bitcoin

[Kakmakr]

The dot-com bubble was a historic economic bubble and period of excessive speculation mainly in the United States that occurred roughly from 1995 to 2000. Most large IT companies took massive hits during this period, but they managed to bounce back in less than 5 to 7 years and they are giants now.

Bitcoin is the largest Crypto currency out there and it can be compared to the large IT companies back then. Bitcoin will bounce back again and when it does, it will be larger than these IT companies combined. 

[DigitalCyberius]

Very well put. Kind of hard to argue against it. One person recently asked when Bitcoin would return back to "normal", sent them a link to an all-time price chart and asked which side of the spike was "normal"? Lol. Bitcoin is cool, and useful in some applications such as, maybe, international transactions, but probably best not to treat it as a store of value, unless you have a small amount for speculation... and speculation doesn't look too hopeful for BTC right now.

Have a good day,
The Cyberius team

[mayurdere]

Bubbles are quite common in human history, whether they be tulips, south-sea, Mississippi, the 1929 stock-market, the 1978 gold mania, thoughout human history there have been bubbles.

A tell-tale of the bubble, is the parabolic rise, 20X in one year like BTC 2017 is a parabolic rise, one thing with all parabolic rises in human-history, they always come down.

The only mania that came back ( even for a short time ) was south-sea bubble, it was a dead-cat bounce, that even wiped out sir isaac newton, so it shows you have its not just idiot that venture back into a collapsed bubble,

But one clear pattern of bubble collapses, is the time to return, now with tulip, south-sea, Mississippi they never really came back, but the stock market post 1929 did come back, but it took 30 years, and the gold collapse post 1978-1982 bubble did come back, but it took 20 years.

On average it take 1-1/2 generations for people to forget they got wiped out ( 90% loss, or even 100% loss ), this is the nature of bubbles post collapse.

Today BITCOIN has collapsed down 90% year-2-date, and still dropping like a rock from a hot-air balloon.

The pump&dumpers say many things, ... it will come back, this bubble is different, BTC is not the stock-market or gold

Well BTC is just another time-series of data that can be statistically measured just like all others, whether it be rail-roads from the 1800's, or air-transportation from the 1960's bubbles are bubbles, and they always come back to earth. The question is do they return? and when do they return.

BTC is NOT valuable in and of itself, its only as good as its 'brand', thus BTC is much like the south-sea bubble, or Mississippi bubble those bubbles were largely inflated by fake-fiat, ,not unlike BTC today.

The other problem with BTC is that its easily duplicated, say now there are 2100 clones, and it appears another 100 added every month, as any idiot can copy&paste source, and add another clone; Anybody can fork BITCOIN and promote it, just like BITCOIN-GOLD which was sold for $500 before it was even forked in Russian futures.

BITCOIN was/is an INTERNATIONAL bubble, which is quite different than any bubble we have seen before, no bubble in the past has been on the INTERNATIONAL scale. The entire world speculated in BITCOIN in 2017, which is why it was able to rise to such a huge capitilization.

The problem now is there are 1,000's of lawsuits pending all over the world, because some +$500 BILLION was lost, some speculate over $800 Billion. Gone evaporated, which means millions of people lost their lost savings, they are angry, they are mad, and they will seek restitution.

A student of south-sea bubble, or Mississippi should know that post bubble many promoters were murdered and sent to jail. These kinds of bubbles never end well for those who promote them, e.g. pump&dump as seen here on bitcointalk.org

In summary, even if BITCOIN does come back, it will take anywhere between 20-30 years, over a generation for people to forget their loss. Certainly bitcoin will bump along, and have some value, but the speculative bubble we witnessed will not return, as never before in history, has a bubble came back in a short time period, and that's for the good-stuff.

A price of something is only as valuable as people will pay, the RISE of BITCOIN was largely the FED-FIAT post 2008, some $4 trillion USD were dumped on the world, and obviously $1T made its way to BTC, most likely the QE is over, which means that there is no source to re-inflate BITCOIN in the near future.

Most are aware that we're in a depression since 2008, and the future is dire for the USD, typically when the economy's of the world go to shit people invest in real assets, BITCOIN at best is a transactional currency, a holding-tank to transfer money A to B. Holding BITCOIN has 50/50 chance of total loss of capital, thus during a world depression people will not be parking their wealth in BITCOIN, but if millions use it day-2-day to move wealth around, the price will stabilize to some value ( IMHO around $1400 USD )

I read in the article and a video that it is a bubble. Even Warren Buffet consider it as a bubble. Immature people and even kids who don't understand economics enters in the trading of bitcoins. And easy to buy platforms helped it touch high. But once the selling started, the buyers were limited and collapsed rapidly from the peak within few months. Chek out this http://www.cuttingchai.info/reasons-to-not-invest-in-bitcoin/ and watch the video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUPn2rZhD00
<a href="http://www.cuttingchai.info/reasons-to-not-invest-in-bitcoin/">5 REASONS WHY YOU SHOULD NOT TRADE BITCOINS IN 2018</a>

[killat]

Bubble or not, bullish and bearish periods are cyclical, even if sometines some trends (current bearish trend) don't seem to ever finish.

I've been in this since the drop at 233. Watched it go up to 1k, drop, watch it go to 20k, and drop again. Cycle continues, but emotions tell you that it shouldn't.

[coolcoinz]

I read in the article and a video that it is a bubble. Even Warren Buffet consider it as a bubble. Immature people and even kids who don't understand economics enters in the trading of bitcoins. And easy to buy platforms helped it touch high. But once the selling started, the buyers were limited and collapsed rapidly from the peak within few months. Chek out this http://www.cuttingchai.info/reasons-to-not-invest-in-bitcoin/ and watch the video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUPn2rZhD00
<a href="http://www.cuttingchai.info/reasons-to-not-invest-in-bitcoin/">5 REASONS WHY YOU SHOULD NOT TRADE BITCOINS IN 2018</a>

Many well known and smart people were calling the Internet a bubble. Many smart people predicted we would never switch from horse carriages to cars because cars are loud, slow, smelly, expensive, difficult to operate. Most of these people who are now calling bitcoin a bubble were saying the same thing in 2015.

It's just something worth thinking about.

[cryptjh]

I going to keep my Bitcoins and the altcoins I havn't sold already. This Bitcoin charts don't look like it finish its corrections. But I still think people will start buy back into bitcoins when the FIAT debt Bubble bursting for real, if that take a few more months or it will take a few years, are not easy to predict but it will happen and then Bitcoins will be a good thing to have in your profolie.

[killat]

I've lived through a few bubbles in my time. The first was Dot Com, where I didn't know what was happening but I learned what a bubble was.

The Irish property bubble which burst around 2007/08 with the financial crisis was the big one. From having seen the Dot Com bubble burst my spidey sense started tingling round 2005/6, I was thinking "Hmm, this all seems a bit familiar".

I was right in the middle of that one, lots of people round my age got caught up in it.

So when crypto came along it was like history repeating to me. The similarities were stark.

However, there are also opportunities to be had during the crash.

There is the saying that "the time to buy is when there is blood running in the streets."

I'm sure you could have picked up lots of good tech stocks for pennies back in 2001/2002. However there were a lot of shit stocks that were worth nothing then and still worth nothing now.

[coinwizard_]

Dot com boom was a bubble and amazon was just a shite website selling books. Ecommerce didn't disappear, it evolved and so did amazon. Crypto will also evolve, and bitcoin will rise again just like amazon

[AAKODI]

Bitcoin will certainly evolve and also crypto and from any perspective btc cannot considered as a bubble because the current price dip won't last long because we all saw how bitcoin rose in 2017 from Zero price and why it cannot happen again when its price is $3,422 at the moment so possibility is much higher

[soulripper]

the bubble will always come in no time. Just prepared it earlier so we dont miss the train to the successful and i manage to get some it on time. What i can tell that no one will know when it will come but this time it is the time for bull to come.

[Nadziratel]

We've been talking about this balloon thing for years. It is not possible to understand how a similarity occurs between Bitcoin and Tulip. Bitcoin has been adopted by hundreds of thousands of people worldwide. Most of the rest of the world is looking hot. In the near future, I believe that the belief in Bitcoin will increase again.

Innovations have always been accepted. Bitcoin is just trying to bypass this first stage.

[okala]

Bitcoin bubble will continue to blow bigger and will no burst in the next two generation to come, that is what make it different from other bubble in history. Bitcoin is here to stay and I will never refer to it as a bubble because it is not bitcoin is a currency traded on so many market around the globe with decent value against other currencies.

[bitcoin-shark]

i hope that this new bubble leads towards the beginning of a new bull market, however it is different from the other previous ones this time the growth of bitcoin value does not drag up also the altcoin (as value)...

[Adriano2010]

I think this bull now id different and looks like altcoins still suffer from and some of them not grow, maybe the bitcoin will stop somehow to 10000$ this month if people will start sell after see the grow.

[Alpinat]

The statement of OP almost all about his/her speculation there are so many possible things that can happen in the market right now. You are saying it will take 20-30 years well then the value of bitcoin and some other cryptocurrencies are already gain 50% of its loss way back 2018. I assumed you are aware of this. We should just let bitcoin do its work and just believe in it.