BTC is not going UP anytime soon and here is why.

[JMD07]

The market drops because of newbies like they sell in low price their investment,news that like FUD or negative about crypto then manipulation so if this turn well in the future like of course if we unite to grow this or if we unite to sell our investment in high i think it will happen so just hold and wait until we experience that like believe in crypto that we can earn here

i agree with you. Those manipulators had make difficult for crypto to rise as they can influence the market situation while the prices are in lower level. I think those manipulators don't want to bring the price higher if they can't get the right price for them at the bottom.

[mikeywith]

if you look at the chart, you can see the price rose up slow and steady from the low of 2014 to the previews ATH formed on Dec 2013 around ( 1170 $).

The patter of the new rally starting from the point of previous ATH is not going to last for long, because that would mean exponential growth over the years. This cycle can easily be the last of it's kind, and the swings of next cycles can become much lower. I just don't see Bitcoin going to six figures in the coming years - there's no fundamentals for that, people are not going to massively switch from banks to Bitcoin, a global economic crisis won't make people massively buy Bitcoin either.

there is no way that this cycle will be the last of it's kind, look at the stock market over the last 100 years. it always moves in 3 main phases. Bull,Bear and Sideways before the next bull swing.

however you are right in terms of % growth , there is no way that every bull phase will have the same % of growth, but every time a bear market ends, a new ATH has to be made, for all i know the next ATH could be just about 40k, it doesn't have to do the same growth in % of 2015-2017 , it is not very possible, the bigger the market cap the harder the growth, but every end of a bull run has to mark a higher high than the previews ATH. this is the nature of every market on planet earth.

[Bonsaiav]

I am not rushing to buy bitcoin, i am not afraid to miss the rally simply because of the nature of the market cycles.

I am almost certain that the price will fall even further from here, but indeed it will always correct, for all i know price could go back up all the way to 5.5k to re-test it but that will only be the fuel for a further dip and not the begging of a rally. 

It doesn't matter if you feel confident that this rally will continue in a prolonged manner, but the nature of the market cannot be nailed just like that, because we don't know what will happen tomorrow or the coming week at the price of bitcoin, maybe the price will suddenly rise ( deviated from what you said). Sorry, that's the only hope I have at the moment.

unless you are buying for the very long term ( years ) then i rather wait for a better signal to buy. so from now to the accumulation stage, we could see many bull traps, 10-20% up , people start jumping on the MOON boat only to end up sinking.

You are right even though this strategy can be considered old-fashioned but this one strategy the fact's effective and real able to penetrate various bad phases (bear/side).

[figmentofmyass]

The patter of the new rally starting from the point of previous ATH is not going to last for long, because that would mean exponential growth over the years. This cycle can easily be the last of it's kind, and the swings of next cycles can become much lower. I just don't see Bitcoin going to six figures in the coming years - there's no fundamentals for that, people are not going to massively switch from banks to Bitcoin, a global economic crisis won't make people massively buy Bitcoin either.

i never bought into the idea that bitcoin would benefit from an economic crisis. probably just the opposite.

but i don't think bitcoin needs that---or for people to abandon banks---for exponential adoption to continue. i think the store-of-value/investment use case coupled with bitcoin's network liquidity might be all that's required.

think about middle class 401k and pension fund investors, physical gold bugs, institutional trade desks, and so on. even JP morgan believes bitcoin "could join gold as a reliable, long-term way to store wealth" and become "a more traditional asset class". maybe that's a longshot, but if it truly comes to resemble a gold-like asset, we could even see governments hold reserves.

if you consider the extreme scarcity of bitcoins (most of the supply has already been mined and much of it probably lost), i'd be really surprised if this past bubble was the last.

[el kaka22]

Even if it drops a lot more to a point like $1.4k which was the previous all time high before last years rally it still doesn't mean bitcoin is dead, we are talking about a coin that has been less than all these prices except for the past 2 summers, instead we are focusing on how bitcoin is going to die and is over with.

We have nasdaq working on a new ETF, we have SEC working on deciding on the ETF and we have Bakkt hoping to provide another, we have bank of america doing patents like crazy and we have wall street banks investing into crypto companies as well and we have been at a higher price than any price in crypto history except last 1.5 year.

Regardless of all that here we are talking about how bitcoin is not going up any time soon. I am sorry to say this but I do not agree with you at all.

[Adriano2010]

You are right but in my opinion the price of bitcoin will grow next year, maybe not so much as most expect but right now i think whales are filling their bags with a lot of coins not only bitcoin and they know what to do. I expect for a 15,000$ price next year or a bit more.

[mikeywith]

It doesn't matter if you feel confident that this rally will continue in a prolonged manner, but the nature of the market cannot be nailed just like that, because we don't know what will happen tomorrow or the coming week at the price of bitcoin, maybe the price will suddenly rise ( deviated from what you said). Sorry, that's the only hope I have at the moment.

well if the price rises and the trend turns fully bullish then sure as hell i will buy, I do not like catching falling knives, everything now points to lower prices, even if we shot to 6k the next hour this does not change the overall sentiment of this extra-bearish market. I think the biggest mistake one can make is blindly catching a falling knife simply because they are afraid to miss the bottom.

[1Referee]

We have nasdaq working on a new ETF, we have SEC working on deciding on the ETF and we have Bakkt hoping to provide another, we have bank of america doing patents like crazy and we have wall street banks investing into crypto companies as well and we have been at a higher price than any price in crypto history except last 1.5 year.

Nasdaq is planning to launch their own futures market, haven't heard anything about an ETF. More importantly, both Nasdaq and Bakkt won't be able to launch any sort of product without regulatory approval (which they don't have yet), and while I initially believed it would be an easy okay, I'm somewhat more bearish towards these platforms right now.

As for the patents of BAC, it's not much to be excited about. Hundreds of entities are securing crypto related patents on a daily basis, which is more like domain hoarding; it's great to have in your portfolio, but only time will tell which ones will be the money makers. Most of these patents will expire unused anyway.

Don't focus on external elements. Focus on what Bitcoin has to offer going forward (i.e. LN, Schnorr, side chains, etc). Fundamentals we can build on.

[gorodi]

Bitcoin is too unpredictable and probably it will not grow for a long time. Despite this I will still hold my coins and wait time when it will go to the moon.

[virasog]

I'm staying in until 2022 at the latest; if it hasn't done something spectacular by then, I think I'll withdraw about 90% of what I have invested.

2022 is very far away and by that time, bitcoin will make its all time high again. So if you can hold it by that time, you should be sure that you will be millionaire by that time. Not many people has such holding powers and that's the reason they want bitcoin to rise fastly.

[aris av]

Of course to recover bitcoin can not be in the near term, bitcoin will take a long time to recover, and from that we must have patience and keep holding to get better results than bitcoin.

[qualitywork]

Nothing is permanent in cryptocurrency, yes a lot of them made profit last year and similarly a lot of them lose this year. which seems to be market is unpredictable and anything can happen it still looks reddish currently and I believe BTC will recover very soon.

[bintangkejoraku]

I agree with what you say if bitcoin will not recover in a short time, I think bitcoin takes 2-3 years to return to the pump path. I say so because now Bitcoin has lost a lot of trust from its investors.

[khaled0111]

I never believe in those predictions and charts analysis.
Simply, you can't predict Bitcoin price by reading and analysing a chart.
The market is manipulated by whales and news spread on Medias and you can't see them both in these charts.

[mikeywith]

I never believe in those predictions and charts analysis.
Simply, you can't predict Bitcoin price by reading and analysing a chart.
The market is manipulated by whales and news spread on Medias and you can't see them both in these charts.

so how do you place your entries/exists ? magic ball? or just hodl from 20k to 3k? i would like to know of a WORKING way other than TA. thanks.

[hatshepsut93]

if you consider the extreme scarcity of bitcoins (most of the supply has already been mined and much of it probably lost), i'd be really surprised if this past bubble was the last.

It's definitely not the last bubble, but there's some chance that the last rally was the last great bubble with that crazy x40 growth. Maybe the next ATH will be only $40,000, and after that we'll have a slower growth up to 6 figures. If we'll see institutional and mass adoption and maturity, they can translate into lower volatility and calmer markets in long term.

[ophyrim]

You may be right. I have seen much technical analysis who thinks like you. But In my opinion, the cycle in which we are in is acting faster than 2014. This means it is also possible that we are at the end of the depression phase and the reversal is near.

[nl247]

Been thinking the same thing for days now, but of course, it is a market and nothing is certain and it all depends on the angle you want to be looking at the chart anyway to be able to call if we have even hit the level of capitulation or not. For now, we just let the market play its thing out, one thing is certain though, which is the fact that we are still in a bear trend and how ever the bears want to push it down the more, it just makes a lot of sense to buy more at the end of it all, once the market starts showing signs of recovery. Let's see!

[eaglewhite80]

The market drops because of newbies like they sell in low price their investment,news that like FUD or negative about crypto then manipulation so if this turn well in the future like of course if we unite to grow this or if we unite to sell our investment in high i think it will happen so just hold and wait until we experience that like believe in crypto that we can earn here

There are lots of factors that affects the value of such coins, I presume that it's not those newbies triggered about the fall of prices but rather some big whales who somehow controlling the supply of BTC. This is how business works, in order to have a cycle and we should try to accept that kind of fact.

Whales are always going to have the best part of the market, but there is nothing whales will do if the market itself is not bearish and there is absolutely no condition to be pulling it up. I said that because, if there is some news or some real life usage right now that would be bringing in some high level of demand no matter what, the market will most definitely be reacting to that, so in a way, asides whales in this matter, the market itself simply have less demand than supply.

[magneto]

I am not rushing to buy bitcoin, i am not afraid to miss the rally simply because of the nature of the market cycles.






It is quite impossible to predict the bottom or the top of any trend, but one thing for sure that these cycles apply to every single market.

 



looking at BTC chart  from the drop in late 2013-2014 the market lost volatility and remained in a sort of "stand-by" mode for roughly a whole year (300 days). before breaking out of the massive triangle.

there is a very good chance the period of accumulation and anger-depression for this bear trend to be shorter or longer than the previews one, but one thing for sure is that it has too take some good amount of time which in my opinion a few months at least.  according to the historical data the rally should start around OCT 2019.

there is no way the rally will start over night and recover all these dips instantly, no market does this. that is why I do not try to catch the falling knife, and FOMOing over every single green candle like many others do.

I see a lot of people start jumping in and calling for " moon is here, buy now before it's too late".

I understand that people are afraid to miss the train, thinking the price can move up real fast similar to last year crazy bull run, what they don't know is that the real rally only starts after breaking out of the current ATH.

if you look at the chart, you can see the price rose up slow and steady from the low of 2014 to the previews ATH formed on Dec 2013 around ( 1170 $).
the moment it broke out of the ATH , it starting going in almost an angle of 90 degree with nearly no correction all the way to almost 20k.

of course it much better to enter some where close to the bottom, but the bottom can be any where, and as long as the market is taking massive dips like this, then it's unlikely to be the bottom.

I am almost certain that the price will fall even further from here, but indeed it will always correct, for all i know price could go back up all the way to 5.5k to re-test it but that will only be the fuel for a further dip and not the begging of a rally. 


unless you are buying for the very long term ( years ) then i rather wait for a better signal to buy. so from now to the accumulation stage, we could see many bull traps, 10-20% up , people start jumping on the MOON boat only to end up sinking.

and of course, this is not a financial advice, I am only sharing my thoughts. feel free you share yours.

First of all, you are absolutely correct in terms of stating that bitcoin prices tend to move in cycles. Each cycle to date seems like it is somewhere between 3-4 years.

I also expect prices to potentially dip by a bit more, and move sideways due to the fact that I think that we're close to the capitulation phase of the market cycle. There is virtually no chance for recovery to happen this year or even first half of next year in my opinion, if you look back towards the 2014-15 bear market which was quite similar (not going to be 100% accurate, of course).

Honestly, I wouldn't bother trying to find the exact bottom if you are a long term investor. Not only is this very improbable to do, you could miss out on a buying opportunity when you keep waiting on lower prices. In my opinion, trying to minimise your average cost per BTC is key, and right now, prices are low enough for investors to start doing so.