Which services do you expect to die during crypto winter?

[gentlemand]

Hopefully at some point relatively soon we'll have scraped the bottom price wise. For exchanges and so on that's good news as a moving price makes money even if it's on its way down.

What's likely to happen afterwards will be month after month of nothingness. Most people will be gone. Price will have a barely detectable pulse. Many fewer will want to spend or trade. Anybody whose income comes from fees will find they ain't getting any.

Which services do you think will weather this and which will croak?

[milewilda]

Which services do you think will weather this and which will croak?

With this current market condition there's no doubt that most of businesses had been affected when it comes to profitability but it wont really comes to a point
where it would really die. Gambling businesses would be still there yet most gamblers will just always depend on usd value, trading platforms do still continue to its business  and talking with mining it might
not be already profitable but there are still who do retain themselves into the industry.

[leowonderful]

One thing that comes to mind for me is likely signature campaigns. The number of signature campaigns that were going during the peak of the cryptocurrency craze last year was exceptionally high, and things have mostly settled down to the point that only well-established services are still keeping their signature campaigns open, as I expect revenue for most crypto-based services has gone down quite a bit since then and it's not worth still paying people to post with decreased revenue.

I think gambling will continue to do okay through the upcoming nuclear winter. Many people still do value their privacy, and cryptocurrency allows people to quickly gamble anonymously and relatively rapidly. I don't see many casinos going under in the near future as I recall many casinos like Fortunejack were still operating in the period of price stagnation from 2014 to about 2016, but I can't see the revenue for a cryptocurrency casino going up anytime soon with the markets where they are currently.

Cloudmining services will likely begin to go belly up very quickly with mining revenue dropping massively, even though the difficulty on coins like BTC is dropping pretty heavily as of lately. We've already seen several services cancel contracts due to negative profitability recently, and if prices don't recover, I don't forsee many cloudmining services surviving. Not a bad thing IMO, as I personally oppose cloudmining services as a whole.

[mk4]

My guess: those small to mid sized services in general that uses bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies. I personally think price has somewhat some correlation to usage. People tend to spend and use their bitcoin if the prices are higher. At some point, those small-mid sized services would be at a point that they're either at a loss, or the small profit they're earning isn't worth it anymore.

[1Referee]

Cloudmining services will likely begin to go belly up very quickly with mining revenue dropping massively, even though the difficulty on coins like BTC is dropping pretty heavily as of lately. We've already seen several services cancel contracts due to negative profitability recently, and if prices don't recover, I don't forsee many cloudmining services surviving. Not a bad thing IMO, as I personally oppose cloudmining services as a whole.

I can't wait for cloud mining to be eradicated as much as realistically is possible. Instead of people buying garbage with next to no sight on ROI months later, they should have bought their crypto currencies directly. If you look back, buying crypto has always greatly outperformed any sort of mining adventure.

I honestly believe that the worst for the cloud mining industry isn't going to present itself during the current bear market, but when the block halving kicks in, which instantly will translate into servives shutting down because it's no longer viable to pay out. In this case even if it concerns scam services, they have a legit and provable reason to pay people 50% less.

[figmentofmyass]

Hopefully at some point relatively soon we'll have scraped the bottom price wise. For exchanges and so on that's good news as a moving price makes money even if it's on its way down.

What's likely to happen afterwards will be month after month of nothingness. Most people will be gone. Price will have a barely detectable pulse. Many fewer will want to spend or trade. Anybody whose income comes from fees will find they ain't getting any.

Which services do you think will weather this and which will croak?

there's been a plethora of small, new exchanges launched over the past year---both centralized and hybrid decentralized. i imagine a long term low volume lull will shake a lot of them out of the market. some will be tempted to exit scam, no doubt.

One thing that comes to mind for me is likely signature campaigns. The number of signature campaigns that were going during the peak of the cryptocurrency craze last year was exceptionally high, and things have mostly settled down to the point that only well-established services are still keeping their signature campaigns open, as I expect revenue for most crypto-based services has gone down quite a bit since then and it's not worth still paying people to post with decreased revenue.

i think we've already seen the bulk of these campaigns (at least the BTC-paid ones) fade away, so i don't expect much to change from here on out. i'm sure when a bull market eventually emerges, they'll ramp back up again.

[gentlemand]

there's been a plethora of small, new exchanges launched over the past year---both centralized and hybrid decentralized. i imagine a long term low volume lull will shake a lot of them out of the market. some will be tempted to exit scam, no doubt.

That's a good call. At times like these there's no way I'd be dabbling in anywhere new or marginal. Even the glossiest places might go to the wall, let alone all the shitpits that have sprung up. I hope noobs have enough sense of the utterly wretched history of crypto services. Doubt it though.

[ralle14]

Let's not forget the bounty and campaign managing services. In addition to what leo said above, with less sig campaigns to manage a lot of managers might go inactive and eventually close their service. The same goes for bounty campaigns ICOs are becoming less of a trend this year because most of them fail and once they're listed in an exchange they become worthless after a year or maybe less.

[buwaytress]

So we've talked about a slowdown in signature and bounty campaigns, or at least those paying in hard, liquid currencies like Bitcoin. But that's been an observable trend for about a year now, and that to me is just a reflection of the ICO industry flailing with the tide going out.

It's the formal PR and marketing industry too that's really suffering I think. Before, with prices so high, just getting your share of limited space on publications was a bidding war. 0.1 BTC would get you plenty. Today? 0.1 gets you maybe 1 PR published and the traffic returns aren't great either.

Ads platforms probably will suffer just as bad.

[BitHodler]

Considering that everything has pretty much been mentioned already, I would like to highlight how derivative platforms have a near perfect formula to remain relevant and thriving even during the worst times.

BitMEX has been doing extremely well and keeps gaining popularity, because they offer you all the features you need to make money on any direction of the market.

That directly makes me wonder how the market would look without these derivative platforms, because they incentivize traders to remain active, which then motivates other aspects of this industry to remain active.

Things are connected to each other one way or another.

[gentlemand]

Considering that everything has pretty much been mentioned already, I would like to highlight how derivative platforms have a near perfect formula to remain relevant and thriving even during the worst times.

The worst times for them are when absolutely nothing happens. There was a bit of that in the $6000-6500 phase but nothing like as hopeless as the $250 phase.

We're not there yet, but once the ultra dump is done it may sit at a price for what seems like forever. I guess that's when they have to introduce 1,000,000x leverage.

[Willitivity]

This slow decay woll really year fien so many things as it continues to go down.
Let's take for instance, in bounties, most ICOs this year are nothing to write home about, tokens are already worthless, if such continues, then every bounty related services will sure to go down

[eternalgloom]

Not really a service, but it's somewhat related.

I think a lot of paid dev teams will start running out of funds, you're already seeing it happen.

Steemit Inc. laid off 70% of their employees.

https://techcrunch.com/2018/11/28/steemit-a-decentralized-sharing-system-lays-of-70-of-staff/

ETCDEV went completely bankrupt and just quit their operations.

https://cryptobriefing.com/etcdev-ethereum-classic/

I'm sure that there will be many more to follow and I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing.

[mk4]

Not really a service, but it's somewhat related.

I think a lot of paid dev teams will start running out of funds, you're already seeing it happen.

Steemit Inc. laid off 70% of their employees.

https://techcrunch.com/2018/11/28/steemit-a-decentralized-sharing-system-lays-of-70-of-staff/

ETCDEV went completely bankrupt and just quit their operations.

https://cryptobriefing.com/etcdev-ethereum-classic/

I'm sure that there will be many more to follow and I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing.

Indeed. Even though I knew that a lot of projects will definitely close, I really wasn't expecting Steemit and ETC to be one of them, as both are definitely more sort of "better"(for a lack of a better word) cryptocurrencies, compared to the others at least. Still looking forward to EOS closing down, though it really looks very unlikely right now. The EOS community is definitely still quite big despite the obvious red flags.

[squatter]

ETCDEV went completely bankrupt and just quit their operations.

https://cryptobriefing.com/etcdev-ethereum-classic/

I'm sure that there will be many more to follow and I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing.

I would expect to see this from ICOs because it was understood that they were paying themselves from ICO funds. But regular POW coins? There was no ICO for Ethereum Classic. Who was funding ETCDEV and why did they have the expectation of salaries?

Open source development sure ain't what it used to be.

[AdolfinWolf]

ETCDEV went completely bankrupt and just quit their operations.

https://cryptobriefing.com/etcdev-ethereum-classic/

I'm sure that there will be many more to follow and I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing.

I would expect to see this from ICOs because it was understood that they were paying themselves from ICO funds. But regular POW coins? There was no ICO for Ethereum Classic. Who was funding ETCDEV and why did they have the expectation of salaries?

Open source development sure ain't what it used to be.

I have a feeling that most people/opensource developers moved on to the better "version" of Ethereum.

The only people that were willing to work on ETC were probably those that got paid for it/had a significant share left
(although since it was forked, everyone who had ETH also has ETC.., so that argument is kind of flawed.). Those that were interested in the tech will just use the more "developed" version. -- Ethereum.

It's funny how all these forks, -- ETC/BCH/BCHSV have such high marketcaps, but almost nothing to show for it..

ETC is still worth 400 million$, but for what? They're technologically inferior to ETH in every aspect?
^^(EDIT: I haven't really looked into the technical aspect of ETC compared to ETH, so i might be wrong here, as i am looking at the comment below.)
The only thing that they really have going for them is the coinbase listing? But is that really worth that much?

[eternalgloom]

@ AdolfinWolf

I wouldn't count them out just yet though, I think that ETCDEV quitting could have a profoundly positive effect on the development of ETC
I've been part of a group of software developers who've been ready to take over development of ETC, completely overhauling the foundation of ETC development from the ground up.

I've briefly talked about this in another thread of mine, it's an interesting read:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5084397 (ETC - Time to stand up against hostile centralized actors (Hostile Takeover) )

[timerland]

Hopefully at some point relatively soon we'll have scraped the bottom price wise. For exchanges and so on that's good news as a moving price makes money even if it's on its way down.

What's likely to happen afterwards will be month after month of nothingness. Most people will be gone. Price will have a barely detectable pulse. Many fewer will want to spend or trade. Anybody whose income comes from fees will find they ain't getting any.

Which services do you think will weather this and which will croak?

I think that a lot of investment services that denominate their investment packages in bitcoin or other cryptos will struggle during the winter. I wouldn't necessarily say that all of them will die, but there will be a general lack of demand for them due to falling prices and people's sentiments.

An example of this would be Magnr, which apparently already has closed down. Other 'savings' or 'bitcoin banks' could be next, but these were already risky services to use in the first place.

Also, a lot of smaller hosted wallets could die as well. There is generally more caution in bear markets, and I believe that people will move to wallets which they do not need to trust, and can hold their own private keys with (like Electrum), and not use hosted wallets that potentially could go down any second.

[gentlemand]

Also, a lot of smaller hosted wallets could die as well. There is generally more caution in bear markets, and I believe that people will move to wallets which they do not need to trust, and can hold their own private keys with (like Electrum), and not use hosted wallets that potentially could go down any second.

How many hosted wallets are left other than Freewallet? The same deffo applies to exchanges.

The only thing that they really have going for them is the coinbase listing? But is that really worth that much?

A Coinbase listing will soon be common as muck. Loads of shit is getting listed there. It's possible they'll have a second tier listing of some sort rather than an in Coinbase option. I guess Coinbase Pro is that.


It looks like the SEC is circling ever tighter. Many ICOs are going to get a large bill and absolutely no way of paying it back. Once all this is done and dusted I expect less than 0.5% of ICOs to still be going, let alone have achieved anything.

[Pab]

Last time many mining services suspended his operation
Now only big one are able to afford mining with that bitcoin price and rising energy costs
Cloud mining it was always hype scam nothing else
Signature campaigns will stay
I guess we will have more and more scams related to gambling mining financial
All of that to steal some btc and keep  until next pump
It is like it was before previous btc halving