Bitcoin looking very weak at mid $600

[BittBurger]

No  no no.

These guys bitcoins aren't worth 10x as much

Because they are buying and selling them every week, in a desperate attempt to make a few dollars.

Now they can't arbitrage and Bitcoin isn't going haywire up and down.  too bad so sad.  #daytraderproblemz

Buy and hold.

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[arepo]

The problem with using the word 'manipulation' is that idiots get this confused with actual problems like 'insider trading'.

The word 'manipulation' is most frequently used on these forums to reference ordinary traders that simply have lots of money, i.e. 'whales'.  These people are the exact same as everyone else in that they're just trading and trying to make a profit.  Calling this 'manipulation' is stupid because this makes everyone a manipulator.  But, erecting huge buy/sell walls or pumping and dumping isn't manipulation -- it's called being wealthy.

Save the term 'manipulation' for devious practice like insider trading and otherwise.

+1

i have outlined in the past the basic idea here, but in more rigorous terms using concepts from game theory applied to the concept of market efficiency. the reasoning behind why even individuals with large amounts of capital in proportion to the average market participant would find it difficult to manipulate the market in any profitable way goes as follows:

Market efficiency
the market moves to minimize traders' profits -- this is a consequence of efficiency. in a market that is perfectly efficient, there would be zero excess profits. by my own experience and the collective experience of this subforum, i think we can safely assume that the bitcoin price function does not exhibit this kind of perfect efficiency (and i would argue that no market does, but that's another topic).

Profit-minimization in (mostly) efficient markets
each time profit is extracted from the market, it causes the price to converge on its "true" price. that is, the process of correctly anticipating market behavior and extracting profits makes the market more efficient. for instance, speculators who can guess where a natural price support is (which is determined by the emergent behavior of the sum total market participants) will exert buying pressure below this support, thereby strengthening it. a mostly efficient market quickly recovers from flash crashes like the one on 24 Feb by this exact process. if the bitcoin price remains undervalued for too long, excess profits can be made by buying low and selling high (and vice versa), so speculators enforce efficiency by buying sudden dips that have a disproportionately large effect on price due to slippage. this is also the mechanism for "corrections" due to profit-taking during periods of rapid price gains.

The cost of market manipulation
now, in this way, the market rewards successful speculators with the few spare profits available from lapses in efficiency like in the examples above. following from this relationship between the theoretical "true" value and the actual stochastic price function which approximates this value, the most profitable move is always the one which enforces efficiency, that is, the move which converges the ticker price to this underlying "true" value. in other words, generally speaking, the most profitable move is one which anticipates trends, not contradicts them. in fact, it also follows from the above relationship that direct price manipulation would be costly, not profitable, because any true manipulation would move the price further away from the "true" price, which is equivalent to creating more inefficiency. this correlates to more excess profits, and the game is zero-sum! it follows that the profits created come from the pocket of the manipulator.

The trading metagame
i do feel i must address the idea that certain clever manipulators may be able to beat a metagame of inducing signals in indicators upon which other traders rely (e.g. creating a "false" crossover). in this situation, the manipulator tricks other market participants into inducing inefficiency through their actions, and then scoops up the excess profits thereby created for themselves! this is a nuanced kind of manipulation that relies on the metagame revolving around anticipating the strategies of other traders. however, this meta-strategy is subject to the same pressures it exploits, as any other market participant may be able to consistently anticipate it and scoop up the profits before the original manipulator does. in this way, the manipulator is still bound by the rules of the "game", and cannot use this meta-strategy to consistently extract excess profits. once the manipulator's own behavior becomes predictable, it is no longer profitable.

in closing: the market incentivizes all participants to enforce trends (by means of profits), and deters them from violating them (by means of costs),

and the corollary: any manipulative meta-strategy that can consistently extract profits can and will be exploited by other participants and thereby neutralized by the same principle.

i hope this issue can now be solidly put to rest. however, i have a sinking feeling i'll be making the same post in another six months or so

--arepo

[Sindelar1938]

Still think we will see higher prices in April

Buyer if we go back to the low 500's

[smoothie]

Looks can be deceiving. OP get ready to buy back in before we rocket up again.

[Bit_Happy]

It's all a complete mess now, the manipulation that drives the market has become so painfully obvious that even the most perma of perma-bulls can't deny it. The "noveau riche" as you call them are just lining their pockets further at the expense of practically everyone else. This only ends when it becomes nearly impossible (or not worth their effort) to manipulate because all the suckers have been scared off and they have no one left to shake down, but that could take a long, long time as noobs continue to pile in. People who think multi-billion investment is just around the corner are utterly deluded, who in their right mind is going to enter this market with vast sums of money?

I genuinely believed we were entering final capitulation, blood on the streets, blah blah blah, christ I'm even writing those posts myself now. What a great time to buy!!! Yeah right... bitcoin is completely fubar at this moment in time.

When enough people believe your post THAT is the time to buy.
Don't follow the lemmings.

[hdbuck]

i agree with OP, it seems since gox scandal that no new money is coming in. Not saying the price wont reach up at some point but i dont expect it to be soon. maybe by september or so. Until then, i think it could easily drop back to $300.

[Dalmar]

TA king DanV who predicted a retest of the 400s when prices were in the 800-900 range in January still thinks bitcoin is headed south:

https://www.tradingview.com/v/GTvxyQ0T/

[podyx]

TA king DanV who predicted a retest of the 400s when prices were in the 800-900 range in January still thinks bitcoin is headed south:

https://www.tradingview.com/v/GTvxyQ0T/

where have he claimed this?

[Dalmar]

where have he claimed this?

Read the description, he is still mid-term bearish based on his EW method.

[igorr]

Seems like the little surge earlier today was from the noveau riche TA 101A society.

It occurred as 4Hr MACD and PSAR were switching to long signal. Bitcoin rose on low volume, with huge dumps up near the top consisting of much of the big green 15 minute bar that appears to drive the price up. Since then nothing. Any volume has been downwards volume.

I had lower 600's, higher 500's as consolidation/accumulation zone but seeing the complete lack of interest at the mid $600's has me thinking my money would be better placed in lower 500's.

trend does not look good

[chesthing]

Igor, if you don't like btc why fuck are you here? is your life THAT empty?

[aminorex]

Igor, if you don't like btc why fuck are you here? is your life THAT empty?

Clearly he is either insane, or driven by a coherent motive.  The usual motive is profit.  Either he actually believes he can talk the price down, or he's paid to to it in a more direct manner.

[aminorex]

i agree with OP, it seems since gox scandal that no new money is coming in.

maybe that's why the number of unique addresses used daily has only increased 22% since gox stopped trading.

[Cassius]

Looks can be deceiving. OP get ready to buy back in before we rocket up again.

Based on? Not saying you're wrong and would certainly agree in the medium term, but it looks like we're headed a little further south first.

[Cassius]

i agree with OP, it seems since gox scandal that no new money is coming in.

maybe that's why the number of unique addresses used daily has only increased 22% since gox stopped trading.

Curious that isn't reflected in the price. My guess: a bunch of people created addresses as they realise exchanges aren't good places to keep money. Plus, possibly, speculatory money leaving the system from the exchanges faster than new money going into new addresses?
Will be very interesting to see if it continues, anyway.

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

i agree with OP, it seems since gox scandal that no new money is coming in.

maybe that's why the number of unique addresses used daily has only increased 22% since gox stopped trading.

Curious that isn't reflected in the price. My guess: a bunch of people created addresses as they realise exchanges aren't good places to keep money. Plus, possibly, speculatory money leaving the system from the exchanges faster than new money going into new addresses?
Will be very interesting to see if it continues, anyway.

Yeah, in bitcoin world new_address != new_money. And we are now seeing some very old money, being dormant for years, moving through the blockchain.

I do not know what to think^* - other than that for me price is still too high to buy. But I am OK with never buying any more BTC, worst things can happen

^*On one hand, bitocoin has been very resistant to bad news, jumping back almost immediately from flash crash. On teh other hand, we see this slow falling down ...

[TERA]

Seems like the little surge earlier today was from the noveau riche TA 101A society.

It occurred as 4Hr MACD and PSAR were switching to long signal. Bitcoin rose on low volume, with huge dumps up near the top consisting of much of the big green 15 minute bar that appears to drive the price up. Since then nothing. Any volume has been downwards volume.

I had lower 600's, higher 500's as consolidation/accumulation zone but seeing the complete lack of interest at the mid $600's has me thinking my money would be better placed in lower 500's.

trend does not look good

How do people draw these types of charts? What calculations do you use for the placement of each line, and to get the slope?

[Zule]

How do people draw these types of charts? What calculations do you use for the placement of each line, and to get the slope?

The first line goes from the bear's ass, thats obvious.

[Cassius]

Seems like the little surge earlier today was from the noveau riche TA 101A society.

It occurred as 4Hr MACD and PSAR were switching to long signal. Bitcoin rose on low volume, with huge dumps up near the top consisting of much of the big green 15 minute bar that appears to drive the price up. Since then nothing. Any volume has been downwards volume.

I had lower 600's, higher 500's as consolidation/accumulation zone but seeing the complete lack of interest at the mid $600's has me thinking my money would be better placed in lower 500's.

trend does not look good

How do people draw these types of charts? What calculations do you use for the placement of each line, and to get the slope?

1) Close eyes.
2) Remove finger from backside. Stab at chart.
3) Repeat with other hand. Join lines.
4) Repeat process for new lines. Doesn't matter how many as they won't mean anything anyway.
5) Select colour. Shade in between lines to denote Something Bad.
6) Repeat with second colour, which will also denote Something Bad.
7) Post to as many threads as you can with vague apocalyptic warnings.

[semaforo]

     Honestly, I agree with the intuitive approach. I am thinking we may see weaker btc buying power for a while as the dust settles from all the bad press.
 
   Ultimately, however, there is no such thing as bad press- now more and more people know about bitcoin- and for every ten people who think it's unsafe, there is one who is going to really read about it and understand the implications and get on board. Trend indicates that interest is spiking in Nigeria and Kenya, the hubs of the  African economy. Many money transfer services already offer locked in exchange rates, so volatility isn't really an issue as far as enhancing the efficiency of the remissions market. There are definitely a lot of people waiting for prices to go down to buy who might panic buy at any signs of a major rally. There is no reason that the spread of bitcoin would be any different than the spread of the internet- rather, faster, especially as smartphone wallet software becomes more widespread.

     It still seems highly unlikely that the past year will look like anything other than the flat part at the beginning of the bitcoin adoption chart in 10 years.