Bitcoin looking very weak at mid $600

[MatTheCat]

Seems like the little surge earlier today was from the noveau riche TA 101A society.

It occurred as 4Hr MACD and PSAR were switching to long signal. Bitcoin rose on low volume, with huge dumps up near the top consisting of much of the big green 15 minute bar that appears to drive the price up. Since then nothing. Any volume has been downwards volume.

I had lower 600's, higher 500's as consolidation/accumulation zone but seeing the complete lack of interest at the mid $600's has me thinking my money would be better placed in lower 500's.

[merkin51]

It's all a complete mess now, the manipulation that drives the market has become so painfully obvious that even the most perma of perma-bulls can't deny it. The "noveau riche" as you call them are just lining their pockets further at the expense of practically everyone else. This only ends when it becomes nearly impossible (or not worth their effort) to manipulate because all the suckers have been scared off and they have no one left to shake down, but that could take a long, long time as noobs continue to pile in. People who think multi-billion investment is just around the corner are utterly deluded, who in their right mind is going to enter this market with vast sums of money?

I genuinely believed we were entering final capitulation, blood on the streets, blah blah blah, christ I'm even writing those posts myself now. What a great time to buy!!! Yeah right... bitcoin is completely fubar at this moment in time.

[podyx]

It's all a complete mess now, the manipulation that drives the market has become so painfully obvious that even the most perma of perma-bulls can't deny it. The "noveau riche" as you call them are just lining their pockets further at the expense of practically everyone else. This only ends when it becomes nearly impossible (or not worth their effort) to manipulate because all the suckers have been scared off and they have no one left to shake down, but that could take a long, long time as noobs continue to pile in. People who think multi-billion investment is just around the corner are utterly deluded, who in their right mind is going to enter this market with vast sums of money?

I genuinely believed we were entering final capitulation, blood on the streets, blah blah blah, christ I'm even writing those posts myself now. What a great time to buy!!! Yeah right... bitcoin is completely fubar at this moment in time.

[chesthing]

I don't understand what you guys are complaining about. I was holding some btc and some usd on bitfinex, I sold my btc when it rose this morning and am waiting to buy back in. Apparently you were just holding usd and that's why you guys think this spike was evil manipulation? just because the market doesn't go your way does not mean it's manipulation by a few evil people on the masses. What it means is you were at the wrong end of the swing, end of story.
Btw, I'm all usd right now and if it rises I won't think conspiracy, I will just think I should have hedged my bet by leaving some btc. My mistake, not the market's. Trying to understand the mindset you guys seem to have just gives me a headache.

[Ibian]

Knew you would make another manhipuhlacion post. Do yourself a favor and take a few weeks off.

[MatTheCat]

It's all a complete mess now, the manipulation that drives the market has become so painfully obvious that even the most perma of perma-bulls can't deny it. The "noveau riche" as you call them are just lining their pockets further at the expense of practically everyone else. This only ends when it becomes nearly impossible (or not worth their effort) to manipulate because all the suckers have been scared off and they have no one left to shake down, but that could take a long, long time as noobs continue to pile in. People who think multi-billion investment is just around the corner are utterly deluded, who in their right mind is going to enter this market with vast sums of money?

I genuinely believed we were entering final capitulation, blood on the streets, blah blah blah, christ I'm even writing those posts myself now. What a great time to buy!!! Yeah right... bitcoin is completely fubar at this moment in time.

I would suggest that Joe Public is not chomping at the bit for Bitcoin right now. To the untrained eye, a quick glance at the Bitcoin chart makes for scary viewing indeed, perhaps because it actually is a very scary chart. The popular image of Bitcoin right now is a world of shoddy exchanges that have a habit of disappearing with everyone's money. Meanwhile, there is a large amount of potential selling pressure going around due to all the stolen coins which seem to be getting ground down into smaller and smaller amounts in order no doubt that a large proportion of them be turned into cash over the course of time.

I suspect that their are still a lot of dreams of avarice in the market anticipating $5K Bitcoin by Dec 2014, but the reality is that failing another X-Factor (collapsing Ukraine economy without a bail-out could have done it), Bitcoin needs to lose a lot of the hot air that has inflated it up and find some kind of genuine equilibrium price range, where long term investors are happy to absorb any selling pressure in the market until:

A) A real Bitcoin economy establishes itself and starts to take Bitcoin forward

B) Another crazed pile into Bitcoin occurs, possibly due to some fucked up situation in the world.

The avaricious dreamers may be happy to pile into Bitcoin as the 4Hr MACD crosses down in the 500-600 range, but who is gonna pile in and take Bitcoin higher? Doesn't seem to be very much interest to me.

I don't understand what you guys are complaining about. I was holding some btc and some usd on bitfinex, I sold my btc when it rose this morning and am waiting to buy back in. Apparently you were just holding usd and that's why you guys think this spike was evil manipulation? just because the market doesn't go your way does not mean it's manipulation by a few evil people on the masses. What it means is you were at the wrong end of the swing, end of story.
Btw, I'm all usd right now and if it rises I won't think conspiracy, I will just think I should have hedged my bet by leaving some btc. My mistake, not the market's. Trying to understand the mindset you guys seem to have just gives me a headache.

Who said anything about manipulation? Not me. Just looked like moned TA101A noobs trying to beat momentum as important 4hr indicators signaled switch to positive trend. Speculator driven, but not driven by enough speculators and certainly not any fresh capital which is what Bitcoin needs.

We will see how things pan out. But someone contributing to this thread has a good track record with these types of things whilst others here have a woeful history of calling Bitcoin.

[the joint]

The problem with using the word 'manipulation' is that idiots get this confused with actual problems like 'insider trading'.

The word 'manipulation' is most frequently used on these forums to reference ordinary traders that simply have lots of money, i.e. 'whales'.  These people are the exact same as everyone else in that they're just trading and trying to make a profit.  Calling this 'manipulation' is stupid because this makes everyone a manipulator.  But, erecting huge buy/sell walls or pumping and dumping isn't manipulation -- it's called being wealthy.

Save the term 'manipulation' for devious practice like insider trading and otherwise.

[chesthing]

Well I admit I have sucked up to this point, but I was using Coinbase with it's 4 day wait. I think I can do some good now that I'm on a real exchange, but if I lose I will blame noone but myself.

[MatTheCat]

Well I admit I have sucked up to this point, but I was using Coinbase with it's 4 day wait. I think I can do some good now that I'm on a real exchange, but if I lose I will blame noone but myself.

I wasn't actually aiming that comment at yourself. But at a couple of the other fannies who were calling bottom at $800 and 'predicting' Bitcoin to take off to 10K from there.

[bassclef]

Mat you think way too much. Dumb it down. Price action reflects everything that is happening in the market and doesn't mix well with theories based on incomplete information. As much as TA is an art form, keep it simple. I tell my music students this all the time: Dumb it down, keep it simple and don't overthink technically or you'll walk onstage and be screwed.

[MatTheCat]

Mat you think way too much. Dumb it down. Price action reflects everything that is happening in the market and doesn't mix well with theories based on incomplete information. As much as TA is an art form, keep it simple. I tell my music students this all the time: Dumb it down, keep it simple and don't overthink technically or you'll walk onstage and be screwed.

Believe me, I keep it dumb.

#1 determinant of my Bitcoin outlook is intuition, perhaps with a pinch of distorted emotional bias if I get too involved arguing with Nutters on this place.

The arms and legs of the TA (which I have only the most rudimentary grasp off) come afterwards.

[bassclef]

Mat you think way too much. Dumb it down. Price action reflects everything that is happening in the market and doesn't mix well with theories based on incomplete information. As much as TA is an art form, keep it simple. I tell my music students this all the time: Dumb it down, keep it simple and don't overthink technically or you'll walk onstage and be screwed.

Believe me, I keep it dumb.

#1 determinant of my Bitcoin outlook is intuition, perhaps with a pinch of distorted emotional bias if I get too involved arguing with Nutters on this place.

The arms and legs of the TA (which I have only the most rudimentary grasp off) come afterwards.

Good deal. Conspiracies are fun but don't let 'em cloud your judgement. Compare the April rally/crash/uncertainty/certainty/just kidding/doldrums/fear/doubt/whew with November's rally and there are some surprising finds.

[Ibian]

The problem with using the word 'manipulation' is that idiots get this confused with actual problems like 'insider trading'.

The problem is that he has abused that word to the point that it no longer means anything coming from him.

[threecats]

Actually i bought in at the bottom of this mornings rally after watching it simmer and get ready for a few hours. It seemed pretty organic to me, like runners chafing for postion at the start of the race.  Not at all like the beginning of the week. And the people jumping on were with pretty medium amounts.

I think you are discounting the large numbers in the middle, who are neither burned out nor starry eyed, but believe in BTC and are cagily trying to just stay with the market, in both directions.

just my 2 satoshi.

[MatTheCat]

The problem with using the word 'manipulation' is that idiots get this confused with actual problems like 'insider trading'.

The problem is that he has abused that word to the point that it no longer means anything coming from him.

The flip side of that is that if you think that there aren't whales in this market using their buying and selling power to initiate moves at key TA 101 A points, in order to cash in on any stampede that they happen to cause in either direction......

.......then you just haven't been paying attention.

[Ibian]

The problem with using the word 'manipulation' is that idiots get this confused with actual problems like 'insider trading'.

The problem is that he has abused that word to the point that it no longer means anything coming from him.

The flip side of that is that if you think that there aren't whales in this market using their buying and selling power to initiate moves at key TA 101 A points, in order to cash in on any stampede that they happen to cause in either direction......

.......then you just haven't been paying attention.

Of course there are. My statement stands.

[the joint]

The problem with using the word 'manipulation' is that idiots get this confused with actual problems like 'insider trading'.

The problem is that he has abused that word to the point that it no longer means anything coming from him.

The flip side of that is that if you think that there aren't whales in this market using their buying and selling power to initiate moves at key TA 101 A points, in order to cash in on any stampede that they happen to cause in either direction......

.......then you just haven't been paying attention.

But there are tons of other people making moves at key lines of resistance, and the only reason that they aren't called "manipulators" is because they trade a few BTC's rather than hundreds or thousands.  That's really about the only difference.  Imagine being at an auction house and claiming that the only millionaire in the room who keeps winning item after item is manipulating the auction.

[oda.krell]

The problem with using the word 'manipulation' is that idiots get this confused with actual problems like 'insider trading'.

The word 'manipulation' is most frequently used on these forums to reference ordinary traders that simply have lots of money, i.e. 'whales'.  These people are the exact same as everyone else in that they're just trading and trying to make a profit.  Calling this 'manipulation' is stupid because this makes everyone a manipulator.  But, erecting huge buy/sell walls or pumping and dumping isn't manipulation -- it's called being wealthy.

Save the term 'manipulation' for devious practice like insider trading and otherwise.

I'd love to print this, frame it, and hang it in the speculation forum lobby.

[alexeft]

Seems like the little surge earlier today was from the noveau riche TA 101A society.

It occurred as 4Hr MACD and PSAR were switching to long signal. Bitcoin rose on low volume, with huge dumps up near the top consisting of much of the big green 15 minute bar that appears to drive the price up. Since then nothing. Any volume has been downwards volume.

I had lower 600's, higher 500's as consolidation/accumulation zone but seeing the complete lack of interest at the mid $600's has me thinking my money would be better placed in lower 500's.

[MatTheCat]

Some of mine are worth little more than half of what I bought them for...

Fortunately for me I sold all of the vaporous little units of nothingness long before they got into such a state.