[2018-12-11] Bitcoin Nothing More Than a ‘Lottery Ticket’: Harvard Economist

[Lmaooo]

Former IMF Chief Economist and current Harvard University Professor of Economics and Public Policy Kenneth Rogoff believe that bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies currently amount to little more than “lottery tickets” at this moment in time. Writing in the Guardian on Monday, Rogoff stated that while some believe that cryptocurrencies have had their day and are on an irreversible downward slide, it is actually difficult to say with certainty that their value will actually fall to zero.

In his view, several questions exist about the ability of large economies to successfully embrace cryptocurrency, which means that outside of joint regulatory action, national level adoption of cryptocurrencies will likely be pushed only by weak pariah states like Iran, Somalia, Venezuela, and North Korea. This he says, makes it difficult to predict the eventual fate of this asset class.

CCN | https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-nothing-more-than-a-lottery-ticket-harvard-economist/

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[buwaytress]

Why didn't someone ask him about the deep problems IMF directly and indirectly help cause to entire economies throughout his tenure? I'm not a Bitcoin evangelist, I don't think it'll solve the world's problems with money or bring world peace, but I equally think labels on the extreme other side of the coin are just as ridiculous, much more so coming from the lips of old school economists who haven't caught up with the times and clinging on to rational theories.

We won't live to see it, but some day even the mighty US dollar will become a pariah currency.

[Buttermellow]

Because bitcoin has no use for now and it has came to a point where we can see that the demand for bitcoin is just so low that it could not bounce back its market price. What I mean is that bitcoin should be used as a payment option. This is one good thing to create a demand for bitcoin to which others will going to buy and just hold because they know its worth when it comes to payment and as many people demanded bitcoin then for sure its market price will increase and fold many times.

[Lucius]

Why didn't someone ask him about the deep problems IMF directly and indirectly help cause to entire economies throughout his tenure?

When this comes from one of the former IMF soldiers then it must certainly be true. He is also from the country which main goal is to make others week, which is one of the main purposes of IMF. They do that by loans ( to countries) which are always requiring collateral, and many fail to pay back and literally become hostages of IMF policy.

Do not worry when such people give statements related to cryptocurrency, it is essentially the opposite of what they claim.

[squatter]

Former IMF Chief Economist and current Harvard University Professor of Economics and Public Policy Kenneth Rogoff believe that bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies currently amount to little more than “lottery tickets” at this moment in time. Writing in the Guardian on Monday, Rogoff stated that while some believe that cryptocurrencies have had their day and are on an irreversible downward slide, it is actually difficult to say with certainty that their value will actually fall to zero.

In his view, several questions exist about the ability of large economies to successfully embrace cryptocurrency, which means that outside of joint regulatory action, national level adoption of cryptocurrencies will likely be pushed only by weak pariah states like Iran, Somalia, Venezuela, and North Korea. This he says, makes it difficult to predict the eventual fate of this asset class.

At least he's more reasonable than Roubini or Professor Bitcorn. To be fair, nobody knows for sure that mass adoption will occur. In that sense, holding Bitcoin is still a speculative gamble, like he suggests. I still cater to this perspective from Satoshi:

I'm sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.

Imagine five years ago seeing famous economists predict the adoption of cryptocurrencies by nation-states. You'd have been laughed out of the room.

[1Referee]

Discarding the motives for his statement, there is an extent of truth here. If we look at the market last year, people fomo'ed in like there was no tomorrow. It wasn't because they love crypto so much for that what it represents, they just love the price that went up like most of the people who entered last year have never seen before.

ICO's were able to raise millions with just a simple website, and an idea with a white paper you can have someone set up for like $50-$100. IIRC, there were a few ICO's that admitted to be a ponzi scam, and people still invested in it, lol. The sentiment last year was literally; shut up and take my money!

[bkbirge]

The article contents are a lot more reasonable than the headline suggests. Basically he is saying for reasons he doesn't outline that BTC could flatline or could go to $100k USD and he doesn't know which way. He correctly points out some serious negatives with the current adoption and use, but as we all know this space moves fast and the inputs to his model could change everything next week. Basically he's speculating and because of his experience in traditional markets he gets press instead of having to post in the speculation category on bitcointalk, but it's worth about as much as the typical post in that section.

[Slow death]

" Bitcoin Nothing More Than a ‘Lottery Ticket’ "



That's really funny

He's going to say that because he needs to stay on the side of the IMF and many bank, because with that he earns credibility in the middle of the banking community, even if he likes bitcoin, I doubt he would say he likes bitcoin. Bitcoin has litle years since its creation and even so has already achieved very good results, imagine in 30 years what bitcoin can achieve ... he when it speaks, it seems that the world will end tomorrow and this is not true, there are still many years ahead and many achievements that bitcoin will achieve.

compare bitcoin with lottery is a Big absurd because people have the option of doing day trade and get high profits and lottery depends on luck. I wonder why this news channel post such news?

[BitHodler]

compare bitcoin with lottery is a Big absurd because people have the option of doing day trade and get high profits and lottery depends on luck. I wonder why this news channel post such news?

Day trading is quite similar to gambling, especially in the current situation. Some traders even apply a martingale method by increasing the position after each losing trade hoping that the next one will be profitable.

The far majority of the people are gamblers. Their investment strategy is to buy at x price and unload when it did a 10x. These people are responsible for what we went through last year and what we're going through this year.

Being realistic is important, because being overly bullish blinds people and makes them ignore 'flaws' crypto definitely has to deal with, and will probably continue to deal with in the coming years.

[Theb]

His opinion about Bitcoin are just like what other economists are saying to the cryptocurrency, Bitcoin is purely an speculative asset but I don't think you can clearly compare it to holding a lottery ticket. Clearly you have a lesser chance of multiplying your money when it comes to purchasing lottery tickets compared to buying cryptocurrencies, at least in the market you can control what you will lose or gain. He also have mentioned Bitcoin being an economic bubble:

Economists (including me) who have worked on this kind of problem for five decades have found that price bubbles surrounding intrinsically worthless assets must eventually burst.

This is still acceptable in terms of the state of what a bubble should look like. But once we breakout of this bear market his views of Bitcoin being a bubble would be invalid this will prove him that Bitcoin is not a bubble and never will be.

[egyptian magician]

A lottery ticket is something a person buys on a whim on the fanciful hope that he or she can overcome astronomical odds to receive a sudden windfall of treasure and wealth. The fact that Rogoff would even make a casual association between a lottery ticket and bitcoin reveals what a dunderheaded simpleton he is. What a joke!

With each passing year, the crypto market is expanding and the utility of bitcoin and blockchain technology are becoming more and more self-evident. And this is really just the beginning still. By Rogoff's logic, we might as well say that investing in publicly traded stocks is a "lottery ticket" because, you know, a company can go bankrupt and leave the investors high and dry. It could happen, but if you've educated yourself, then you'll known whether it's a reasonable risk/reward or not.

[DooMAD]

I can see how someone uneducated could arrive at the analogy of a lottery ticket, because there are significant of people out there who buy Bitcoin purely in the hope of becoming wealthy.  There's no denying some people are clearly using Bitcoin for that intent.  But, as others have pointed out, it's downright disheartening that an educator, of all people, could arrive at such a simplistic and banal conclusion, particularly when even a hint of understanding would lead you to recognise that's not what Bitcoin is.  

It's like when people say the internet is just people sharing cat videos.  Congratulations on your pedestrian surface observations, which technically aren't incorrect.  Lots of people are using the internet to do that.  Oddly enough, though, there's a little more to it than that.  See the bigger picture, perhaps?

[Hamphser]

I can see how someone uneducated could arrive at the analogy of a lottery ticket, because there are significant of people out there who buy Bitcoin purely in the hope of becoming wealthy.  There's no denying some people are clearly using Bitcoin for that intent.  But, as others have pointed out, it's downright disheartening that an educator, of all people, could arrive at such a simplistic and banal conclusion, particularly when even a hint of understanding would lead you to recognise that's not what Bitcoin is.  

It's like when people say the internet is just people sharing cat videos.  Congratulations on your pedestrian surface observations, which technically aren't incorrect.  Lots of people are using the internet to do that.  Oddly enough, though, there's a little more to it than that.  See the bigger picture, perhaps?

I would rather say that Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme is much better than Bitcoin is just like a Lottery ticket. I don't know why he do get those analysis yet same as you said
those are just like f*ckin pedestrian surface observations and didn't even tend to go deeper and to know more on how Bitcoin works and its true usage and I do even believe
that he do made such line by just having a single glimpse on BTC and didn't tend to looked once again.