[2018-12-11] A Recession Is Looming – Will Bitcoin Capitalize or Collapse Too?

[nulltx]

"We continue to think the US will not fall into recession the minute the new year clock strikes one, but the sentiment is growing by leaps and bounds that 2019 is going to be awful for the US–economy unless something comes along to reverse the trend–and recession is well-night certain for 2020"

These are the words of Barbara Rockefeller, the renowned economist, forex trading expert and best-selling financial author. In her op-ed on FX-Street, Rockefeller looked at the many factors that point to a weakening of the global economy to the point of a financial crisis. They include the ensuing U.S-China trade war, the instability facing Britain over Brexit, political instability in France and Italy and more.

Read More: https://nulltx.com/with-recession-looming-will-bitcoin-capitalize/

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[hatshepsut93]

Bitcoin's own market cycles are far more important than some indirect outside factors. If a global economic crisis had started today, it would still not be enough to start a bull run, providing that the market actually views it as a bullish event. I personally think that the effects of recession will be smaller than most people think, because Bitcoin's market is very decoupled from stocks.

[bbc.reporter]

@hatshepsut93. Is bitcoin really decoupled from the United States economy? I reckon it is not as decoupled as you make it to be. Picture our world suffering in another world financial crisis, what would the common people need, cryptocoins or food and water?

[squatter]

@hatshepsut93. Is bitcoin really decoupled from the United States economy? I reckon it is not as decoupled as you make it to be. Picture our world suffering in another world financial crisis, what would the common people need, cryptocoins or food and water?

If you think about it, both stocks and Bitcoin have been in a strong bull market for the last 10 years. Just as they rise together, they might fall together in a real financial crisis. Investors don't usually seek haven in risky assets during times like that, so I don't see why it would be a boon for cryptocurrencies like some people think.

[microedge]

Bitcoin is strong and the king of Cryptocurrency.

Look at it this way "..,

On December 30, 2008, the Case–Shiller home price index reported its largest price drop in its history. ... Increased foreclosure rates in 2006–2007 among U.S. homeowners led to a crisis in August 2008 for the subprime, Alt-A, collateralized debt obligation (CDO), mortgage, credit, hedge fund, and foreign bank markets.

January 2009 along came Bitcoin ...

[Kakmakr]

A lot of people seem to think that a economic collapse of the Fiat system will push people to Crypto currencies like Bitcoin, but early signs point to the contrary. The latest stock market instability did not push a lot of investments into Bitcoin, which is widely regarded as a good store of value. 

Investors tend to run to safe havens like precious metals in troubled times, but the Gold market is also not showing any signs that people are panicking yet. <I think they are over confident that the Stock markets would recover> 

I hope I am wrong and people will flock to Bitcoin, when things turns bad in 2019. 

[Kemarit]

@hatshepsut93. Is bitcoin really decoupled from the United States economy? I reckon it is not as decoupled as you make it to be. Picture our world suffering in another world financial crisis, what would the common people need, cryptocoins or food and water?

When your back is against the wall, I think people will just dump their crypto's just to put food in the table, its the rational decision so I don't think that crypto can capitalized if there's a looming financial collapse next year.

I would rather wanted to think that we can really benefited from it, but I can't rationalized anything, again I have been in the last recession and its ugly and I will do what's best for me and my family during that crisis and that includes selling off my stash. So it will be a complete opposite picture, but yeah, let's see how it goes.

[Carlton Banks]

If you think about it, both stocks and Bitcoin have been in a strong bull market for the last 10 years. Just as they rise together, they might fall together in a real financial crisis. Investors don't usually seek haven in risky assets during times like that, so I don't see why it would be a boon for cryptocurrencies like some people think.

There's only really one form of financial crises to which Bitcoin could respond positively: a worldwide currency crisis, especially one that includes USD RMB and EUR. The conditions for that kind of crisis do actually exist, at least potentially, which is why "the financial crisis" gets invoked as a byword for the rise of alternative currencies.

A worldwide currency crisis can and will be mitigated though, the IMF exist in at least part of their capacity to do that job. Depending on the medicine they administer, cryptocurrencies can capitalise during the fallout period. Any IMF remediation in such an event that curtails the ability of individuals to use their own money will aid cryptocurrencies, but even without that there would still be a crypto-positive effect, as the old-world financial system would be forced into alot of changes. The sheer fact that Bitcoin wouldn't need to change to survive would work in it's favor. Confidence perception would change; against fiat and the incumbent financial system, and the cypto-asset sector would pick up the balance.

However much crypto gains, we don't want such a crisis to happen. It's unlikely that cryptocurrency makes massive progress in days or weeks, and while the necessary time passes, life would be painful.

[hatshepsut93]

@hatshepsut93. Is bitcoin really decoupled from the United States economy? I reckon it is not as decoupled as you make it to be. Picture our world suffering in another world financial crisis, what would the common people need, cryptocoins or food and water?

Are you saying that Bitcoin will fall because people will be selling it to survive? I doubt that most hodlers will be that desperate, an average Bitcoin owner has a good amount of fiat and other assets, and whales will also be unlikely to sell. So, the selling pressure from people who would risk poverty will be quite small.

[1Referee]

Are you saying that Bitcoin will fall because people will be selling it to survive? I doubt that most hodlers will be that desperate, an average Bitcoin owner has a good amount of fiat and other assets, and whales will also be unlikely to sell. So, the selling pressure from people who would risk poverty will be quite small.

I have been reading through stories and articles (for years now) where a massive crisis was expected to hit the world, but thus far it hasn't happened yet. I'm actually pretty content with that, because the longer it takes for a crisis to show its face, the more time Bitcoin will have to expand and gain the safe haven status that Gold currently enjoys.

In the end, you can better have Bitcoin in your portfolio and not need it in the far future than to not have it and then realize that you should have bought it because you badly need it right now.

[bbc.reporter]

@hatshepsut93. Is bitcoin really decoupled from the United States economy? I reckon it is not as decoupled as you make it to be. Picture our world suffering in another world financial crisis, what would the common people need, cryptocoins or food and water?

If you think about it, both stocks and Bitcoin have been in a strong bull market for the last 10 years. Just as they rise together, they might fall together in a real financial crisis. Investors don't usually seek haven in risky assets during times like that, so I don't see why it would be a boon for cryptocurrencies like some people think.

Agreed. I reckon investors always go back to safer assets like bonds, gold and real estate.

Those some people who say that bitcoin will be a good investment in a financial crisis are not economists. They might only be holders or bagholders similar to they have in altcoins hehehe.

[CryptoBry]

There are many people who are assuming that if the economy of USA will be slowing down to the point of recession that people will instead be investing to Bitcoin. I am not really sure of this because the idea here is that people can feel the uncertainty so they are looking for something more stable and valuable...and the question is: can that be supplied by Bitcoin when it is known to be very volatile? One factor for the recent slide or dip of Bitcoin is that people are not anymore feeling enthusiastic as to its future and that is the same sentiment that people may have when the whole economy can be slowing down. I am hoping to be wrong though.

[leea-1334]

Bitcoin may also fall from recession. People lose money in all the stocks and real estate and see savings going down, so they may not buy Bitcoin at all. On the other hand if Bitcoin somehow recovers or gains ground in 2019, it will appear even more attractive than all the stock markets. So you never know. If pensioners buy Bitcoin plus millennials buying Bitcoin, all that demand could push prices up even more so than so called whale investors.

[DooMAD]

A worldwide currency crisis can and will be mitigated though, the IMF exist in at least part of their capacity to do that job. Depending on the medicine they administer, cryptocurrencies can capitalise during the fallout period. Any IMF remediation in such an event that curtails the ability of individuals to use their own money will aid cryptocurrencies, but even without that there would still be a crypto-positive effect, as the old-world financial system would be forced into alot of changes.

The IMF have already been approving multi-million dollar stimulus packages all over the world throughout November and December so far.  They're warning that they're underfunded to deal with any serious global instability.  Their role appears to be more of a "damage limitation" rather than a fully fledged bailout now.

[Carlton Banks]

The IMF have already been approving multi-million dollar stimulus packages all over the world throughout November and December so far.  They're warning that they're underfunded to deal with any serious global instability.  Their role appears to be more of a "damage limitation" rather than a fully fledged bailout now.

Hmmm. Isn't that a little manipulative though? The IMF have a printing press recognised by their subordinate central banks. Maybe they're trying to give the impression that although they can print SDRs, they can only do so as a part of responsible monetary policy!

Investment banks and hedge funds would love that policy to exist during another financial crisis, as the lack of liquidity in the first wave of such a situation would allow them to acquire some incredibly cheap assets. Then the same investment banks and hedge funds just need to remain solvent until IMF breaks their own policy in order to save the system, and they'll be first in line to receive trillions of freshly minted SDRs at negative interest rates.

[don_ricci]

Why many people don't understand that this is the norm when there are ups and downs. This is an integral part of the market. The fact that bitcoin fell so low is only an indication that the hype has passed and it is time to rise slowly. Why do I think Bitcoin will go up? Because this is a logical movement of the market - a reaction to the rapid decline. We can talk about this for a very long time.

[jeromix]

This question is really hard to answer but there is a high chance that bitcoin will going to collapse because legally it has a problem in some other countries that might influence other country as well to put bitcoin into its end. But, if bitcoin will be regulated or put into legal terms then definitely just like stock market exchange it will going to be established.

[nizamcc]

I don't see any reasons why the global economic crisis should not affect the crypto market.
If people start losing their money, why they should start investing in cryptocurrency?
And I'm not talking about professional investors.

[Slow death]

"We continue to think the US will not fall into recession the minute the new year clock strikes one, but the sentiment is growing by leaps and bounds that 2019 is going to be awful for the US–economy unless something comes along to reverse the trend–and recession is well-night certain for 2020"

These are the words of Barbara Rockefeller, the renowned economist, forex trading expert and best-selling financial author. In her op-ed on FX-Street, Rockefeller looked at the many factors that point to a weakening of the global economy to the point of a financial crisis. They include the ensuing U.S-China trade war, the instability facing Britain over Brexit, political instability in France and Italy and more.

Read More: https://nulltx.com/with-recession-looming-will-bitcoin-capitalize/

whenever the price drops a lot we see many threads like this, I see many people post to saying that the price would drop to $1000 and today the price has risen to $3800 and there are people talking about that the price will reach the ATH next year, that is we again hear exaggerated price forecasts:

Quinone CEO Backs Bitcoin to Reach New All-Time High by 2019

Next year we will see the same fairy tale and I hope this time people are not mistaken and do not create high expectations