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Author Topic: Bitcointalk posts statistics over the last year  (Read 289 times)
stompix
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December 12, 2018, 04:19:31 PM
Merited by TMAN (20), yahoo62278 (10), suchmoon (4), dbshck (4), Welsh (3), DdmrDdmr (3), LoyceV (2), ibminer (2), Toxic2040 (1), bitmover (1), jonemil24 (1)
 #1

This is my first try at doing some sort of statistics work and probably the first time this year I've worked that much with charts and tables so bear with me if this looks like an amateur job cause it totally is  Grin

I've always argued that most of the posts here are going to the altcoin sections, that new people have almost lost interest in bitcoin discussions and projects, but I always lacked the numbers. So rather than asking the usual data providers here I went and did it alone. the horror...the horror

All the data comes from the archived first page of bitcointalk and shows were new posts in the selected period go.
And you're not going to like it   Roll Eyes



There are a few - values in there and those are not errors, just some mods doing their jobs or sections moved from the board.


Some pie charts:
The first period is from August till December last year




From December and the peak of the bull run till the merit system introduction.




From January till June (a period of declining prices and the effects of the merit system)




June till November (continuous bear market, the hype is dying for ICO and a new merit requirement)




And the last month:




Most of the sections have insignificant percentages so this a full period graph:




Now, unless I've f*** up some numbers, 56.89% of the new posts go in the Altcoin section.
And...of course, there is an and, even the local sections have Altcoin subboards so I assume the number might be close to 60%.

What is pretty interesting is that even in this bear market and with the introduction of the merit system the "#Proof of authentication" bounty section is thriving, and might even hit 50% of the total posts.

Another interesting thing is the Russian section if those are genuine users....Holy ***!


The only thing I'm still curious about it is how many erros I have made in this Tongue

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DdmrDdmr
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December 12, 2018, 07:12:07 PM
Merited by Welsh (3), stompix (1)
 #2

<…>
Looks fairly decent to me. I’ve contrasted some of your data to some of mine published yesterday with included post counts (in the "merit per post per section/subsection" post) and it is pretty aligned for the most recent period (we have chosen different specific date intervals).
 
The interesting think that we can see here is that there is an evolution in the "share of wallet" of each subsection over time. For example, Bitcoin Discussion had a share of 6,1% (01/08/2017..02/12/2017), 6,3% (02/12/2017..23/01/2018), but it goes down to 2,5% (23/01/2018 .. 01/06/2018) , 3,4% (01/06/2018..02/11/2018) and 2,6% as of late (02/11/2018 .. 02/12/2018). This decrease in share was caused by all the spur in the ann/bounty sections, and not because of a decrease in posts in the Bitcoin Discussion board.

A couple of months ago I started a follow-up on the monthly evolution of the Altcoin sections (including the local board child board for Alt coins), but left it unfinished and did not publish it. Looking over it now, on the 23/10/2018 I made it 3,6M posts in the aggregate altcoin childboards for the aggregate of all local boards, being the Russian local board in lead with 2,1M posts in their altcoin childboard (which was a mere 0,5M a year before ..).

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December 12, 2018, 07:22:02 PM
 #3

Another interesting thing is the Russian section if those are genuine users....Holy ***!
That's the first thing I noticed, and I'm surprised by that.  I'm thinking Russia is where most of the shittiest ICOs originate from, but that's just kind of a guess.  I'm pretty certain that a lot of the scammers we see are Russian, or maybe I've been watching too many movies or still have some sort of cold war resentment.  Either way, the proportion of posts being made in that section is relatively enormous.

Good analysis.  What isn't surprising is how popular the altcoin sections are on a bitcoin forum where you can make money promoting shitcoins.  I can't even imagine how bitcointalk would look if Theymos suddenly nuked the entire altcoin buffet of sections--not that I think he'd do such a thing.

The only thing I'm still curious about it is how many erros I have made in this Tongue
Ahh, you're a smart guy.  Even if you made some errors in your analysis, you're probably at least in the ballpark with the data.  If I was able to produce work like this, my statistics professor from 1997 would be proud.

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December 12, 2018, 07:23:27 PM
Last edit: December 12, 2018, 07:34:25 PM by stompix
Merited by Welsh (2)
 #4

Looks fairly decent to me. I’ve contrasted some of your data to some of mine published yesterday with included post counts (in the "merit per post per section/subsection" post) and it is pretty aligned for the most recent period (we have chosen different specific date intervals).

Phew! So it's not that messed up.
Honestly, first I thought about doing it monthly but when the data pilled up, especially the constant movement between sections and I realized I had to deal with each manually I put it on hold. As a side note, the data ends on December the 2 because...that's when I started this  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


The interesting think that we can see here is that there is an evolution in the "share of wallet" of each subsection over time. For example, Bitcoin Discussion had a share of 6,1% (01/08/2017..02/12/2017), 6,3% (02/12/2017..23/01/2018), but it goes down to 2,5% (23/01/2018 .. 01/06/2018) , 3,4% (01/06/2018..02/11/2018) and 2,6% as of late (02/11/2018 .. 02/12/2018). This decrease in share was caused by all the spur in the ann/bounty sections, and not because of a decrease in posts in the Bitcoin Discussion board.

The thing I was going to examine after this was the evolution in the number of posts/day in some boards especially in the days before and after the two changes in the merit system
But...probably at this pace, I will do it next year so if you have the data and time it would be nice to find out.
I'm especially curious about this because Loycev keeps showing red candles after red candles in the number of posts and I wonder where the bulk of the reduction is happening.

Certainly, it's not happening in the alt related sections.

That's the first thing I noticed, and I'm surprised by that.  I'm thinking Russia is where most of the shittiest ICOs originate from, but that's just kind of a guess.  I'm pretty certain that a lot of the scammers we see are Russian, or maybe I've been watching too many movies or still have some sort of cold war resentment.  Either way, the proportion of posts being made in that section is relatively enormous.

I triple checked that data and I was sure I made something wrong, I still can't imagine how much activity that board has.

I can't even imagine how bitcointalk would look if Theymos suddenly nuked the entire altcoin buffet of sections--not that I think he'd do such a thing.

He won't probably but the meta would be flooded with people blaming him they have to commit seppuku now that they can't do bounty.

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December 12, 2018, 08:21:27 PM
 #5

The thing I was going to examine after this was the evolution in the number of posts/day in some boards especially in the days before and after the two changes in the merit system
But...probably at this pace, I will do it next year so if you have the data and time it would be nice to find out.
I'm especially curious about this because Loycev keeps showing red candles after red candles in the number of posts and I wonder where the bulk of the reduction is happening.
I can get you >99% of all posts from the past 3 months (since September 12) if you're interested. I've stored the original unedited post, excluding quotes. Your post for example looks like this:
Code:
stompix
164749
48628591
<a href="https://bitcointalk.org/index.php#4">Other</a> / <a href="https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=24.0">Meta</a> / <b><a href="https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5083902.msg48628591#msg48628591">Re: Bitcointalk posts statistics over the last year</a></b>

<br />Phew! So it&#039;s not that messed up.<br />Honestly, first I thought about doing it monthly but when the data pilled up, especially the constant movement between sectioned and I realized I had to deal with each manually I put it on hold. As a side note, the data ends on December the 2 because...that&#039;s when I started this &nbsp;<img src="https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif" alt="Cheesy" border="0" /> <img src="https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif" alt="Cheesy" border="0" /> <img src="https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif" alt="Cheesy" border="0" /><br /><br /><br /><br />The thing I was going to examine after this was the evolution in the number of posts/day in some boards especially in the days before and after the two changes in the merit system<br />But...probably at this pace, I will do it next year so if you have the data and time it would be nice to find out.<br />I&#039;m especially curious about this because <a class="ul" href="https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5032314">Loycev keeps showing</a> red candles after red candles in the number of posts and I wonder where the bulk of the reduction is happening.<br /><br />Certainly, it&#039;s not happening in the alt related sections.<br /><br /><br /><br />
The fourth line shows the board, the file date equals the post date and time. This should be enough to find out where the post reduction happens.

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December 12, 2018, 10:28:31 PM
Last edit: December 12, 2018, 10:40:00 PM by stompix
 #6

@LoyceV, well, couch comes first and Christmas is knocking at the door for the second place.  Cheesy Cheesy

I'll take your offer only if you have it already and it doesn't mean you wasting time on it as probably I won't have either enough to play with it and extract some proper data from it these weeks.

----------

And some funny things the table shows:







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December 12, 2018, 11:38:15 PM
 #7

Seeing bounty section as the most liveliest place on this forum is no longer a surprise for me. I wonder if those posters are "one man, one account".

Although I'm an active bounty hunter for almost a year now, I can say that posting my social media link is not really rewarding, and these bounty cheaters, aside from scam or failed ICOs, are to blame.

Normally, if given a choice to do something and nothing, I choose to do nothing.
But I will do something if it helps someone else to do nothing.
I'd work all night if it meant nothing got done.
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LoyceV
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December 13, 2018, 10:03:32 AM
 #8

I'll take your offer only if you have it already and it doesn't mean you wasting time on it as probably I won't have either enough to play with it and extract some proper data from it these weeks.
I have it, but I'd like to know what format you prefer. As a suggestion: I can give you the date/time of each post on each board, and leave out the rest. It's a lot of data currently to send.
If you have time to work on more statistics, let me know when you're ready. I'm just collecting more data until then.

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December 13, 2018, 12:54:22 PM
 #9

!.
I have it, but I'd like to know what format you prefer. As a suggestion: I can give you the date/time of each post on each board, and leave out the rest. It's a lot of data currently to send.
If you have time to work on more statistics, let me know when you're ready. I'm just collecting more data until then.

The format doesn't really matter unless is some weird stuff that works only in some ancient databases.
If you can trim it to that it would be excellent, and I see on DdmrDdmr topic that he's interested too so just make a dump there when you feel like it or have the time, no need for us to crossposting.

If you can keep on collecting data it would be great especially if Theymos will implement the bumping limit one of these days.
Probably we will see a decrease of over 25-30%  in the altcoins section and at least percentage wise a revival in bitcoin sections.
This is one of the reasons I started this, to show the deniers that the colossal numbers in posts and users are here not because of bitcoin.




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December 13, 2018, 01:26:30 PM
 #10

The format doesn't really matter unless is some weird stuff that works only in some ancient databases.
Like I said: it's just (compressed) text-files. But about 2.5 million of them Tongue If you can handle that I can upload 600 MB somewhere, but it's probably easier for you if I only give you what you really need Smiley

Quote
If you can trim it to that it would be excellent, and I see on DdmrDdmr topic that he's interested too so just make a dump there when you feel like it or have the time, no need for us to crossposting.
I noticed my couch-comment moved topics indeed Cheesy

Quote
If you can keep on collecting data it would be great especially if Theymos will implement the bumping limit one of these days.
Probably we will see a decrease of over 25-30%  in the altcoins section and at least percentage wise a revival in bitcoin sections.
Sure Smiley

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