Bitcoin bottom could be around the corner ! interesting chart !

[figmentofmyass]

the media doesn't care about bitcoin anymore except to occasionally make fun of us or declare bitcoin's death.

in a bull market, all good news is fuel for the rocket.

Cant state both as true really, in 2017 the news didnt especially impede progress either.  In September 2017 China the source of most BTC use blocked most of crypto from being used.    A large part of BTC sucess was the fact China uses capital controls against its citizens which means they do not have access to dollars or many services the majority of the world takes for granted.   Venezuela would be another example where people cannot act freely.
So banning BTC in September was a big deal but the price then was only about 3000 and it went onto much greater heights.   

you're making my point for me. the premise is that "bad news doesn't matter in a bull market and good news doesn't matter in a bear market".

2017 was the epitome of a bull market. so obviously bad news didn't matter. think about the first winklevoss ETF rejection (which triggered the altcoin bubble) or the btc-e seizure or the china exchange bans. the market kept making new highs.

then look at the 2018 bear market. all the interest from asset management firms and investment banks in bitcoin trading instruments, the announcement of imminent regulated physically settled futures (bakkt), all sorts of progress with LN development. the market didn't care: sell everything.

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[Bitcoinwaist]

ive been thinking about bakkt, and I really like the way this is setting up. unlike the cboe and cme futures launch there isn't much hype about bakkt which I think is very positive.

i think that's because we're in a bear market. no amount of good news or services/infrastructure coming online can turn around a bear market. the media doesn't care about bitcoin anymore except to occasionally make fun of us or declare bitcoin's death.

in a bull market, all good news is fuel for the rocket.

personally i think its going to be a game changer. A slew of new whales with the deepest pockets bitcoin has ever seen are going to be able to finally get in. their trades will be public information. And at this point right now they are all going to take a position, goldman, citi, boa all of them. why wouldnt they?

why can't they get in now? there are institutional custody services and supposedly deep OTC markets. there are regulated futures markets. there are regulated swap execution facilities.

Geroge soros taking a position bill gates or a drunkenmiller or anyone of that stature can turn this bear market around on a dime. Everyone is forgetting this is going to be legit by institutional standards. All the other companies means nothing gemini coinbase custodial is 2nd rate. That is like comparing a company listed on the nasdaq with the pink sheets.Also up until now what is the largest amount of money anyone has ever heard of buying bitcoin? Probably tim drapers buys of the us marshall auction. Well there are going to be multiple buys like this every day. Everyone is fooling themselves that this isnt going to be a very big deal. This is actual delivery of said bitcoin no cash settlements and it will also be all public. No behind the scenes otc transactions which was all hearsay.
Go on yahoo finance and find a garbage stock and look up institutional holders of it. Pretty much every garbage stock has some holders like goldman, city, mutual funds etc no matter how much of a garbage company institutions/funds take positions. Bitcoin is way better everyone will take a position.

[Bitcoinwaist]

I think the next logical step for bitcoin going to the moon is the scarcity play. I think bakkt ans institutions will take a shit ton of coins off the open market for a long time. Then when fidelity launches that opens a slew of self directed iras. Rhat money has been inaccessible til now. I imagine there will be thousands of people buying just one coin in their ira fir future retirement. I know once i can use those funds i am going to be buying some coins in it. Just my 2c.

[figmentofmyass]

personally i think its going to be a game changer. A slew of new whales with the deepest pockets bitcoin has ever seen are going to be able to finally get in. their trades will be public information. And at this point right now they are all going to take a position, goldman, citi, boa all of them. why wouldnt they?

why can't they get in now? there are institutional custody services and supposedly deep OTC markets. there are regulated futures markets. there are regulated swap execution facilities.

Geroge soros taking a position bill gates or a drunkenmiller or anyone of that stature can turn this bear market around on a dime. Everyone is forgetting this is going to be legit by institutional standards. All the other companies means nothing gemini coinbase custodial is 2nd rate. That is like comparing a company listed on the nasdaq with the pink sheets.

bitcoiners seem to have a twisted sense of how wall street works. trading institutions front run markets---they don't wait until "the perfect derivative" comes along so they can buy the top after the rest of the market. they also spin off subsidiary companies to avoid disclosing investments.

again, there are CFTC-regulated futures markets. there are CFTC-regulated swap execution facilities. go home with the bullshit about pink sheets. even if you think institutions haven't devised custody solutions (which is another baseless assumption bitcoiners make), they don't actually need them to get massive exposure to this market.

but you think everyone's waiting for bakkt to launch.....right. wall street is just patiently waiting to pump bitcoin for us too.

[Febo]

Can't say I'm not liking the chart, but I'm now quite careful when we talk about lines that are never crossed yet or thresholds never broken. Bitcoin's been doing new things in the past 2 years, bucking RSI trends, breaking 30, 60 and then whatever-day average lines, so if we see BTC fall below 2.5k (certainly not implausible now) then yeah, we're pretty much in yet further new territory.

I'm "liking" 300 days of sideways movement though. It's what I'd been expecting for a long time, but if I've learnt any lessons, 2019's going to surprise in some fashion.

300 days sideways seems to long to me.  I believe bull run will start closer to halving this time as it did in 2015. Simply because everyone will try to be ahead of the rest.

[mikeywith]

we broke first resistance, should now act as our support , watching for the next Resistance levels. a break out below the current support will be bad for btc.

[davinchi]

Apparently this chart could be quite true. Right now price started to get back up a bit, of course it doesn't mean the price will go up from here and there is still a chance that we can see even lower bottom since we are not clear out of the water like we are suddenly 10 thousand dollars but honestly seeing bitcoin increasing and breaking some points is great to know, we didn't think we could break 3800 today when the day started but we have seen above that price already.

So all in all, even tough the chart could still be wrong, there is a potential that it could be right as well. I doubt we will see 2800 levels anytime soon and I hope we can move beyond 4 thousand dollars and more in the upcoming future but we should still be a bit careful about our investments since anything could happen anytime.

[magneto]

1- The 50 Moving Average has only been tested twice and price never closed under it.
2-The last bear market of 2014-2015 we had almost exactly 85% drop from ATH which meets the target of the current value of the 50MA
3-This support area is very crucial and important for the bears as there is almost no major support until 1100$

I think that 1 and 2 are all very good points. Not sure about 3 though.

It's very likely that we're very close to the bottom right now. I don't think that we have hit bottom yet, even though prices seem to be rebounding at the moment. All I'm saying is that prices probably will not collapse down too much at this point, but rather move sideways with occasional dips.

With the percentage loss from the all time high, I seriously can't see prices going down to $1k or below like others predict simply because historic bear market bottoms have been around 15% of ATH value, and that there will be a ton of demand for BTC if it ever did drop below $3k in my opinion. The fundamentals of bitcoin has not changed, and there's still a lot of people investing for the long term. In my opinion, right now, in this zone between $3-4k is the perfect time to buy in cheap coins if you are able to hold it for the long run.