Bitcoin bottom could be around the corner ! interesting chart !

[mikeywith]

Why are we close to bottom? what fundamentally has changed? bitcoin still can't scale for shit, ethereum scam icos have been halted, China is totally out unlike back in 2014, the altcoin market is deader than a doornail thanks to kyc gov intervention and crackdown on scammers. Why would people buy crypto right now? Nobody's falling for a fomo pump, so all I can see is down.

Fundamentals now are better than last Dec , how is that relevant to price? BTC now has more adoption,more projects and in general it is technically and fundamentally stronger than it was during last year end, yet we are almost 85% down from ATH. i can tell you one thing and one thing for sure. nobody gives a fuck about fundamentals, investors will buy something that they can sell for a higher price and that's all about it. look at all the shit coins in the market, billions of $ are put in when nobody believes in any of those projects, but they buy them to sell them later for a higher price. so regardless of how bad fundamentals are, btc is going up so that it could be dumped again. rinse and repeat.

[1Referee]

it is scary in my opinion too but not because the two drops are similar (since they have absolutely no similarity) but only because the chart of these two times looks the same!
which makes wonder about the reason why we ended up seeing the same chart when the situation today has nothing in common with the situation back in 2013.

It's purely speculation of course, but it could very well be institutions messing up the market behind the scenes. I really expected the situation to be different this time, because the fundamentals have improved significantly, but the users (i.e. get rich quick noobs) here are exactly the same as how they were back in 2013/2014/2015. It's almost like a routine market shake-out.

I didn't expect it to be this similar, but at least I managed to pick up the valuable inputs from the current bear market which I can have work in my advantage after the next bull run. It's all about learning from our mistakes and to not underestimate the market. I got a bit too comfortable with the $6000 level, and I'm sure many more people have.

[exstasie]

It's purely speculation of course, but it could very well be institutions messing up the market behind the scenes. I really expected the situation to be different this time, because the fundamentals have improved significantly, but the users (i.e. get rich quick noobs) here are exactly the same as how they were back in 2013/2014/2015. It's almost like a routine market shake-out.

I didn't expect it to be this similar, but at least I managed to pick up the valuable inputs from the current bear market which I can have work in my advantage after the next bull run. It's all about learning from our mistakes and to not underestimate the market. I got a bit too comfortable with the $6000 level, and I'm sure many more people have.

Definitely, most people in fact. I was always open to another leg down, but as a long term believer I'm always trying to hedge against the possibility that the next bubble starts developing. In 2015, it took me a long time to break out of the bearish mindset and stop shorting the market, and that's unfortunately kept me sort of biased to the upside during this bear market. I'm always afraid to get too bearish on Bitcoin.

[mikeywith]

it is scary in my opinion too but not because the two drops are similar (since they have absolutely no similarity) but only because the chart of these two times looks the same!
which makes wonder about the reason why we ended up seeing the same chart when the situation today has nothing in common with the situation back in 2013.

It's purely speculation of course, but it could very well be institutions messing up the market behind the scenes. I really expected the situation to be different this time, because the fundamentals have improved significantly, but the users (i.e. get rich quick noobs) here are exactly the same as how they were back in 2013/2014/2015. It's almost like a routine market shake-out.

I didn't expect it to be this similar, but at least I managed to pick up the valuable inputs from the current bear market which I can have work in my advantage after the next bull run. It's all about learning from our mistakes and to not underestimate the market. I got a bit too comfortable with the $6000 level, and I'm sure many more people have.

this is very true , most traders were so comfortable with the 5.8k to 6k  level, i was one of them, i had bunch of buy orders on that levels, and it paid out throughout the whole of 2018 , except for the last test, where i did lose quite a good amount, but the best part about TA is that the chart sometimes gives you a clear sign saying SELL the shit and get out.

i made this warning topic here after the break of the support > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5071613.msg48030883#msg48030883

many people mock my TA's or in fact TA in general, and keep living under the illusion of "whales control the market" while that could be true, but small fish like us can make use of charts. i sold everything including ALTs when btc broke that support which was about 5600$. if i was to re-buy now, i will have almost doubled my BTC holding.

as we can not be sure of where exactly the bottom may be, i personally started loading BTC with more buying orders all the way down to 2.5k but should that level break i will short and wait for the next support at 1800$, if it fails, short and wait for 1100$. if you are not protecting your investments with a SL behind major supports then you are simply taking a one way ticket to rekt city.

I suggest to everybody to start learning TA, i see many people now calling for 1k and selling at this level which is very stupid, noobs always sell at the very wrong time, even if the price is going to 1k it is very wrong to sell now while we are just above this major support.

[exstasie]

Considering that during a bear market every bit of bad news will more likely impact the price, it will be interesting to see whether or not Bakkt will be given permission to launch their Bitcoin backed futures.

If not, we might be up for even more blood on the streets. The CFTC might very well consider the current market to not be a healthy environment to launch these products in, all to "protect" investors.

What makes you think anyone cares about Bakkt? Hardly anyone talks about it. The few people that do are just BTC bagholders clinging to hope that good news will save the market. The market may not react much at all, just like it stopped reacting to ETF speculation. If it happens after a major bottom or capitulation, I think the effect will be minimal.

[WinslowIII]

Why are we close to bottom? what fundamentally has changed? bitcoin still can't scale for shit, ethereum scam icos have been halted, China is totally out unlike back in 2014, the altcoin market is deader than a doornail thanks to kyc gov intervention and crackdown on scammers. Why would people buy crypto right now? Nobody's falling for a fomo pump, so all I can see is down.

Fundamentals now are better than last Dec , how is that relevant to price? BTC now has more adoption,more projects and in general it is technically and fundamentally stronger than it was during last year end, yet we are almost 85% down from ATH. i can tell you one thing and one thing for sure. nobody gives a fuck about fundamentals, investors will buy something that they can sell for a higher price and that's all about it. look at all the shit coins in the market, billions of $ are put in when nobody believes in any of those projects, but they buy them to sell them later for a higher price. so regardless of how bad fundamentals are, btc is going up so that it could be dumped again. rinse and repeat.

What do you mean by more adoption? people are fleeing in droves, have been for months. How is that more adoption than last Dec when people were coming aboard in droves?
And wtf do you mean nobody cares about fundamentals? for one, that isn't true. And for another, anyone looking to make money sure as fuck isn't going to stick it in the sinking rat ship of cryptocurrencies.
Wise ass.

[figmentofmyass]

What do you mean by more adoption? people are fleeing in droves, have been for months. How is that more adoption than last Dec when people were coming aboard in droves?

coins are being distributed---that doesn't mean users are disappearing. on the contrary: according to a recent study, cryptocurrency users doubled this year in spite of the crash.

And wtf do you mean nobody cares about fundamentals? for one, that isn't true. And for another, anyone looking to make money sure as fuck isn't going to stick it in the sinking rat ship of cryptocurrencies.
Wise ass.

its true that fundamentals aren't particularly important for price---price can go irrationally far in either direction regardless of fundamentals. that's just markets for ya. bitcoin in particular is hyper speculative because of its extremely scarce supply and lack of liquidity vs growing adoption. what matters most for price is sentiment, hype, and speculation about the future. scaling limitations are way down on the list---the typical investor doesn't know or care about them.

people were talking down the fundamentals and scaling weaknesses like you since before the 2013 bubble too. then bears employed the same arguments in 2016 and 2017 because fees were rising so much, but we bubbled again anyway. nobody cares about slow confirmation times and high fees when they think they can 10x or 100x their investments.

[mikeywith]

What do you mean by more adoption? people are fleeing in droves, have been for months. How is that more adoption than last Dec when people were coming aboard in droves?

coins are being distributed---that doesn't mean users are disappearing. on the contrary: according to a recent study, cryptocurrency users doubled this year in spite of the crash.

And wtf do you mean nobody cares about fundamentals? for one, that isn't true. And for another, anyone looking to make money sure as fuck isn't going to stick it in the sinking rat ship of cryptocurrencies.
Wise ass.

its true that fundamentals aren't particularly important for price---price can go irrationally far in either direction regardless of fundamentals. that's just markets for ya. bitcoin in particular is hyper speculative because of its extremely scarce supply and lack of liquidity vs growing adoption. what matters most for price is sentiment, hype, and speculation about the future. scaling limitations are way down on the list---the typical investor doesn't know or care about them.

people were talking down the fundamentals and scaling weaknesses like you since before the 2013 bubble too. then bears employed the same arguments in 2016 and 2017 because fees were rising so much, but we bubbled again anyway. nobody cares about slow confirmation times and high fees when they think they can 10x or 100x their investments.

thanks for explaining to him , i think people do not understand that adoption and price are not entirety related or attached to one another. what WinslowIII is also misunderstanding that just because price is going down it means adoption is decreasing. I am not very fluent in English but i do think his understanding of "adoption" is not right.

plus, I do not understand why is he mad at me  ? he could be losing money , might have bought btc for 15k and still hodling ! but this is not my mistake ! i am here trying to help for absolutely FREE of charge, if it is so hard for you to say THANK YOU then at least do not be rude.

Good luck

[boty]

bitcoin prices will probably fall back and going to the cheapest price again because it is no confidence in the bitcoin again even it could be proved from its buyers and demand declined.

[BitHodler]

What makes you think anyone cares about Bakkt? Hardly anyone talks about it. The few people that do are just BTC bagholders clinging to hope that good news will save the market. The market may not react much at all, just like it stopped reacting to ETF speculation. If it happens after a major bottom or capitulation, I think the effect will be minimal.

You might not see it as an important element, but it will very likely be when they yet again delay their launch, especially with the bearish sentiment in mind. It's more fuel to the fire....

It might even be an event leading to actual capitulation, because Bakkt not going live means no institutional money entering the market. Don't think VC's and large crypto funds consider that to be a good thing.

Don't underestimate how bad news, regardless of how irrelevant you think it is, can push this market further down. Institutions entering is what the aforementioned entities are waiting for.

[exstasie]

What makes you think anyone cares about Bakkt? Hardly anyone talks about it. The few people that do are just BTC bagholders clinging to hope that good news will save the market. The market may not react much at all, just like it stopped reacting to ETF speculation. If it happens after a major bottom or capitulation, I think the effect will be minimal.

You might not see it as an important element, but it will very likely be when they yet again delay their launch, especially with the bearish sentiment in mind. It's more fuel to the fire....

It might even be an event leading to actual capitulation, because Bakkt not going live means no institutional money entering the market. Don't think VC's and large crypto funds consider that to be a good thing.

That's what everyone said about ETFs, but the market stopped caring about them too. The market hardly reacted to the last couple announcements. We actually bounced for a couple days after the last SolidX delay this month.

Bakkt not going live doesn't mean that either. The only people depending on institutional money entering the market because of Bakkt are silly retail bagholders. The launch of Bakkt never guaranteed institutional interest to begin with. To hear asset management companies tell it, institutions aren't really interested in Bitcoin, period. The launch of Bakkt isn't going to create demand out of nowhere.

This is a bear market, so if the market is about to dump anyway, then sure, the Bakkt news will look important. People put way too much emphasis on news though. Bad news isn't the reason the price dumped 50% over the past month.

[mikeywith]

What makes you think anyone cares about Bakkt? Hardly anyone talks about it. The few people that do are just BTC bagholders clinging to hope that good news will save the market. The market may not react much at all, just like it stopped reacting to ETF speculation. If it happens after a major bottom or capitulation, I think the effect will be minimal.

You might not see it as an important element, but it will very likely be when they yet again delay their launch, especially with the bearish sentiment in mind. It's more fuel to the fire....

It might even be an event leading to actual capitulation, because Bakkt not going live means no institutional money entering the market. Don't think VC's and large crypto funds consider that to be a good thing.

That's what everyone said about ETFs, but the market stopped caring about them too. The market hardly reacted to the last couple announcements. We actually bounced for a couple days after the last SolidX delay this month.

Bakkt not going live doesn't mean that either. The only people depending on institutional money entering the market because of Bakkt are silly retail bagholders. The launch of Bakkt never guaranteed institutional interest to begin with. To hear asset management companies tell it, institutions aren't really interested in Bitcoin, period. The launch of Bakkt isn't going to create demand out of nowhere.

This is a bear market, so if the market is about to dump anyway, then sure, the Bakkt news will look important. People put way too much emphasis on news though. Bad news isn't the reason the price dumped 50% over the past month.

I do not understand why people give so much value to ETFs, people are starting to think that ETFs are the only way for crypto to survive which is very wrong.
i think this concept comes from people who live in the united states, as many think the whole world revolves around the US which is very wrong, i am not saying Bakkt will have 0 effect on price, but it will not be as big as most people think it will, if there is a bullish sentiment in the trend it will help increase it and that's all about it, there is no way on earth the Bakkt will change a whole bear market to a bull market. when btc surged from 3 digits to 20k it did not give a fuck about no ETFs what so ever. investors all over the globe who probably don't even know what ETF or SEC is will jump in when the time comes and price will go up despite Bakkt launching next year or not.

[Idrisu]

Nice chart revealed the position of the market after putting the historical data into consideration.  The bottom is really near and any pull back from the current level may lead to the bottom.  However,  the market is highly unpredictable and what we may think as the bottom may not be the bottom.

[dodgrad]

Everyone would be happy if that happened, but unfortunately the support prices can change over time, and in such a volatile market as cryptocurrency, it's very easy.

[mikeywith]

in this thread > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5071613.msg48030883#msg48030883 

i keep track on smaller time frames , i pointed out an important breakout of the falling wedge, and we did successfully break out and followed up with a nice mini rally.

we are not at a very important resistance level, i closed my long position , waiting for the current 4h to close, if we close above the 3600, we could see another nice rally to 4 to 4.4k.

waiting for a break out.

nicely done, approaching resistance so getting ready to close my long position , i might open short positions should i see a reversal candle.

[kateycoin]

Well I think if bitcoin will touch a bottom it will be alright although its hurt see like that all are suffering because of losing their investment.  I'm still believe that bottom is not forever it move up again and we will that bitcoin go higher price again. That's life we need to experience the ups and downs but dont forget to be positive and believe that everything will be alright again.

[STT]

1- The 50 Moving Average has only been tested twice and price never closed under it.

Thats been said by a few now and its entirely simple.    The clearest notes wins the attention of the most ears.   Its very probable as a bounce area and then we have to speculate on the fight that ensues between bears and bulls around this area.


Short term no doubt its bullish but on daily its buried by an avalanche till it can melt that weight overhead.

[Bitcoinwaist]

ive been thinking about bakkt, and I really like the way this is setting up. unlike the cboe and cme futures launch there isn't much hype about bakkt which I think is very positive. personally i think its going to be a game changer. A slew of new whales with the deepest pockets bitcoin has ever seen are going to be able to finally get in. their trades will be public information. And at this point right now they are all going to take a position, goldman, citi, boa all of them. why wouldnt they?  even if they are small positions its all going to add up as scarce as the float of bitcoin is. Many hedge funds/institutions dont get out of bed for deals less than $20 million. Even if they only allocate 1/2 of 1 % of some other miniscule amount of $$,  at the least to bitcoin or some kind of position. I can see $20 million dollar bitcoin buys. I would be in before bakkt goes live.

[figmentofmyass]

ive been thinking about bakkt, and I really like the way this is setting up. unlike the cboe and cme futures launch there isn't much hype about bakkt which I think is very positive.

i think that's because we're in a bear market. no amount of good news or services/infrastructure coming online can turn around a bear market. the media doesn't care about bitcoin anymore except to occasionally make fun of us or declare bitcoin's death.

in a bull market, all good news is fuel for the rocket.

personally i think its going to be a game changer. A slew of new whales with the deepest pockets bitcoin has ever seen are going to be able to finally get in. their trades will be public information. And at this point right now they are all going to take a position, goldman, citi, boa all of them. why wouldnt they?

why can't they get in now? there are institutional custody services and supposedly deep OTC markets. there are regulated futures markets. there are regulated swap execution facilities.

[STT]

the media doesn't care about bitcoin anymore except to occasionally make fun of us or declare bitcoin's death.

in a bull market, all good news is fuel for the rocket.

Cant state both as true really, in 2017 the news didnt especially impede progress either.  In September 2017 China the source of most BTC use blocked most of crypto from being used.    A large part of BTC sucess was the fact China uses capital controls against its citizens which means they do not have access to dollars or many services the majority of the world takes for granted.   Venezuela would be another example where people cannot act freely.
So banning BTC in September was a big deal but the price then was only about 3000 and it went onto much greater heights.   

If you want to compare it to now and state it as reverse, nothing matters then fair enough.

I'd rather recall that area as an important area with its support and resistance to compare now.    But news and price now will vary from the past.    I'm interested to hear if BTC is still growing especially in its population not so much the various banks really, only if people are finding it useful.  Bakkt could be part of that