Tom Lee's final analysis of the year

[bbc.reporter]

In any case, he also said that the market is wrong. He reasons that the price of bitcoin is below its fair value of $13k - $14k. However, I reckon the real price should be the price that the buyer wants to pay for, not what an analyst wants hehehe.


Bullish Tom Lee

“We are tired of people asking us about target prices,” he said, declining to update his year-end forecast.

Read the full article https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-13/unabashed-bitcoin-bull-thomas-lee-says-the-market-is-wrong

[davis196]

"fair price"?WTF?There's no such thing as a fair price.
My assumption of a fair bitcoin price would be 50K USD,but it won't happen(probably in the next 3 years).
I guess that Tom Lee just wants to spread some optimism amongst the small traders/newbies.He doesn't want to make a proper analysis.

[Pursuer]

In any case, he also said that the market is wrong. He reasons that the price of bitcoin is below its fair value of $13k - $14k. However, I reckon the real price should be the price that the buyer wants to pay for, not what an analyst wants hehehe.

this is an interesting discussion if you think about it. the question that whether the current price is the result of what the buyers were willing to pay or is it the result of market manipulation.
the answer to the above question will give you the answer to whether bitcoin is below its fair value or not. then you can come up with your own analysis of what this fair value truly is.

in my opinion the current price is not a natural price that occurred due to demand but it is at this level because of market manipulation. which makes bitcoin under its true value. however I don't consider $13k-$14k bitcoin's current true value although it could have been possible if the dump never occurred. somewhere around $9k to $10k is my opinion for the value.

[butka]

This "fair price" he is mentioning is a really weird term. From the article, however, it seems that he has a working model for determining the price, correlating the number of current bitcoin wallets with the bitcoin price. He says that the current price doesn't reflect the number of wallets currently installed:

“In fact, working backwards, to solve for the current price of Bitcoin, this implies crypto wallets should fall to 17 million from 50 million currently.”

He goes on and makes an even bolder statement:

If Bitcoin wallets approach just 7 percent of Visa’s 4.5 billion account holders, fair value would be $150,000 per Bitcoin

I don't think you can use this correlation just like that, but at least it is a new approach for making predictions, at least to me. It makes some sense, because the number of wallets (in a way) reflects the demand side of the market.

[Bitcoinwaist]

In any case, he also said that the market is wrong. He reasons that the price of bitcoin is below its fair value of $13k - $14k. However, I reckon the real price should be the price that the buyer wants to pay for, not what an analyst wants hehehe.

this is an interesting discussion if you think about it. the question that whether the current price is the result of what the buyers were willing to pay or is it the result of market manipulation.
the answer to the above question will give you the answer to whether bitcoin is below its fair value or not. then you can come up with your own analysis of what this fair value truly is.

in my opinion the current price is not a natural price that occurred due to demand but it is at this level because of market manipulation. which makes bitcoin under its true value. however I don't consider $13k-$14k bitcoin's current true value although it could have been possible if the dump never occurred. somewhere around $9k to $10k is my opinion for the value.

agree. would have been nice to sit at $10k and everyone in the crypto world would have understood a 40% correction. people would have still been plowing money into bitcoin. now a whole generation of investors are lost due to whale greed. its actually very sad because so many more people, unlike the rise in 2013, got ass raped that they will be turned off to crypto for life.

[Juggy777]

In any case, he also said that the market is wrong. He reasons that the price of bitcoin is below its fair value of $13k - $14k. However, I reckon the real price should be the price that the buyer wants to pay for, not what an analyst wants hehehe.


Bullish Tom Lee

“We are tired of people asking us about target prices,” he said, declining to update his year-end forecast.

Read the full article https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-13/unabashed-bitcoin-bull-thomas-lee-says-the-market-is-wrong

The fair value of bitcoins is a tricky question, as it'll depend from person to person perspective and it's difficult to quantify it. In my personal opinion the fair value could have between 6 - 8k, had we not seen the crash. Tom Lee has spoken from an analysts point of view, and I feel he's accounted the manipulation and other factors which we laymen we have ignored, or it could be a ploy to calm the investors we need to wait and watch.

[khufuking]

And who set the fair price!! The fair price is the price determined by people, we can't say that while Bitcoin was $19,000 and then say things versus what we said previously, I am not talking about him alone I am talking in general because that is not the first time I hear the word fair price in Crypto market, the fair for any Cryptocurrency is the price listed on the exchange, whether we think it should be valued more by people or not is totally a different thing.

[Deeyoh]

Fair market for some of my coins was 17k, next is 50k, and 100k, then some are priced at 1 million each.   Hey, I determine what I sell my coins for.    Good luck, I'll never completely sell all for inflated fiat though.

[BrewMaster]

although i agree with parts of what he has been saying so far but i think at this point he is mostly just trying to explain his predictions that never came true. in other words digging himself out of the ditch the dug before!
the ATH prediction he made out of pure hype was unrealistic to begin with but apart from that he also has a point that this current price is wrong. i have said this before that bitcoin is underpriced right now even though it will have a very hard time keeping the current price or even rising. and that is all because of manipulation not because people weren't willing to pay!!!

[xuv500]

These analysis are longer exist in my opinion as we are seeing the reality of crypto this year, The market is unpredictable at the moment also I hope you people's remember what macafee said. Speculations gave lot of happiness to the investors but in reality it is different.

[Pab]

If Warren Buffet will say that fair bitcoin price is realistic 25k $ than btc price will be 25k
I guess no
Invisible hand of market does Tomy Lee ever heard about it
bitcoin trading is pure capitalism like Wall Street was very long time ago
We even didn't have our crypto  Black Friday
For me it is similar how it was before previous halving
Price went down from 1200$ to even 180$ and couldn't pass 300$ for very long time
It looks like cycle Tomy Lee is any real analyst

[clrpod]

In any case, he also said that the market is wrong. He reasons that the price of bitcoin is below its fair value of $13k - $14k. However, I reckon the real price should be the price that the buyer wants to pay for, not what an analyst wants hehehe.

Market price is always the fair price, as you said. If enough people really believed it should be higher then it would be higher, vice versa lower. How does one even determine a fair value that is not the market price? What makes it fair?

[exstasie]

Poor Tom Lee. He sure doesn't look too happy in that picture.

This "fair price" he is mentioning is a really weird term. From the article, however, it seems that he has a working model for determining the price, correlating the number of current bitcoin wallets with the bitcoin price. He says that the current price doesn't reflect the number of wallets currently installed:

“In fact, working backwards, to solve for the current price of Bitcoin, this implies crypto wallets should fall to 17 million from 50 million currently.”

He goes on and makes an even bolder statement:

If Bitcoin wallets approach just 7 percent of Visa’s 4.5 billion account holders, fair value would be $150,000 per Bitcoin

What a bizarre analysis! No wonder he's always wrong.

I'm not sure where he's getting his numbers from, but Blockchain.com puts their total wallet users at 31.5 million. That number can be gamed pretty easily, and it doesn't fall when people stop using their wallets! It's also not clear how many wallet users actually bought or used Bitcoin, or if those buyers are offsetting all the OTC and exchange sellers.

Get a new system, Tom!

[1Referee]

Tom Lee's final analysis should be; I messed up. I'm sorry. I'm out. Adios!

He's really the kind of person to keep making predictions till he's right, because if he goes on long enough, eventually he will be right. I'm sure mainstream media channels such as CNBC bring him in just to make fun of him and his predictions. It's sad to see that he's letting them make money over his 'confidence' in metrics that don't apply to this market at all, or at least, not right now.

This once again shows that it doesn't matter what your background in economics and markets in general is, crypto predictions regardless of their level of analysis remain a wild guess.

[gentlemand]

I hope his family is keeping a close eye on him. There's a chance he may self immolate on NYE as this year has been nothing more than a repeated stomping on his willy as he's dug himself deeper and deeper. I like this new 'it's the MARKET that's wrong' approach. It might just pull him back from the edge.

[figmentofmyass]

I hope his family is keeping a close eye on him. There's a chance he may self immolate on NYE as this year has been nothing more than a repeated stomping on his willy as he's dug himself deeper and deeper. I like this new 'it's the MARKET that's wrong' approach. It might just pull him back from the edge.

haha, that was a nice touch indeed. he's had a rough year with the bitcoin calls. maybe he's lashing out a bit.

i wouldn't worry about him too much though. his company deals mainly with the equity markets, and he's had a long, respectable career on wall street as an equities analyst. i think he just just gets invited on fast money because he's willing to talk about crypto.

[cellard]

"fair price"?WTF?There's no such thing as a fair price.
My assumption of a fair bitcoin price would be 50K USD,but it won't happen(probably in the next 3 years).
I guess that Tom Lee just wants to spread some optimism amongst the small traders/newbies.He doesn't want to make a proper analysis.

Please, don't be deluded enough to think Bitcoin's price isn't heavily manipulated. As long as Bitcoin is measured in a currency whose supply is controlled by some obscure private banking group, why would anyone trust that the price is a clean supply and (real) demand of the asset?

Let's see, what did they say when they were going to launch the futures and why did they even agree to launch them on the first place?

“That’s a very important step for bitcoin’s history... We will regulate, make bitcoin not wild, nor wilder. We’ll tame it into a regular type instrument of trade with rules,”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cme-group-bitcoin/cmes-melamed-sees-bitcoin-becoming-new-asset-class-idUSKBN1D712M?


Sems pretty clear to me. The good news is, hard money always wins long term, so buy the dip and hodl.

[LeGaulois]

He was trying to avoid the "I admit I have been wrong all the year" His problem is he's living in 2018 with his BTC 2013 lifestyle He's still smart, even if I don't always agree with him.
If a fair value is something that buyers agree to pay then a buyer will say $1 is a fair price and the seller will say $50k is mine...
when BTC was at 10k people agreed, $15k-$20k too. So the fair price should be at least $20k, no? in reality, the fair price depends on the supply/demand...

BTW just to add that "Fair price" is a term often used in finance

... used in two different contexts. One is as a synonym for fair value, a theoretically unbiased valuation of an asset which may differ from its current market price. A second meaning of fair price is that at which demand and supply for a futures contract are equal.

The fair price, or fair value, of an asset is an economic concept. It aims to give an objective valuation of the asset rather than simply going by the current market price. Whereas the market price is determined solely by supply and demand, the fair price takes into account the costs of the individual components of the asset. In the case of a business this could include land, machinery, stock and staff levels.

The fair price may also take into account the value of whatever is produced by an asset, whether that be production from a physical asset, or financial return from a financial asset. There may also be more subjective elements in assessing fair value, such as how useful an asset is to a particular potential buyer. For example, a fishmonger would place a higher value on a store with easy access to a port than a baker would place on the same store.

https://www.wisegeek.com/in-finance-what-is-a-fair-price.htm

[vit05]

I prefer the analyzes where the trader puts that up to a certain price he is buying, selling or maintaining position. To say that the price is unfair is extremely irrational. You do not have all the information to say exactly why others are selling at a certain price.

I am buying with the value below the 4k. And I will only review my position when the price is above 6k

[exstasie]

I prefer the analyzes where the trader puts that up to a certain price he is buying, selling or maintaining position. To say that the price is unfair is extremely irrational. You do not have all the information to say exactly why others are selling at a certain price.

I think Tom is just on tilt due to the recent crash and he's acting emotional. He's not in top form right now. For his sake, I sure hope he hasn't actually been holding big positions based on his perma-bullish outlook.

His outlook is based on this crazy idea about correlation to number of wallets:

“In fact, working backwards, to solve for the current price of Bitcoin, this implies crypto wallets should fall to 17 million from 50 million currently.”

Not only does the number of wallets never fall, but it doesn't say anything about who's buying or selling and in what amounts.