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Author Topic: The bear period (December 17, 2017 - December 17, 2018)  (Read 402 times)
figmentofmyass
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December 23, 2018, 09:20:30 PM
 #21

Sorry, but that's just garbage TA. It's being rehashed everywhere and it seems that it has even reached people here.

Seriously, this whole space is infested with TA "gurus" that no one even knew about before 2017 and now they think can predict the market? When they are wrong with their 'analysis' they just play it off as the market isn't always following TA, and when they are right they boast about their solid prediction and how much profit you could have made if you followed what they said.

Tossing a coin has been equally rewarding as trading based on TA.

i really think that's unfair. if TA is completely worthless, then there's no reason to engage in trading at all since fundamentals can't be quantified into price---price is subject to speculation and market psychology. that means the only acceptable methods are "buy and hold" or "short to the ground". and since the second choice can screw you on even the scammiest of altcoins, it's a dumb move.

you're conflating "bad TA practitioners" with the idea of TA. a lot of people badmouth TA because they either applied it incorrectly and used bad risk management, or because they see other people making worthless predictions. using TA isn't about predictions---it's about recognizing the trend direction and when market conditions are changing so you can react.

there's a big difference between people who ride trends/use backtested strategies and......the tom lees of the world. people make a living trading commodities, equities, and even crypto. if you think that's done based on fundamental analysis alone you'd be very wrong.

kotwica666
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December 23, 2018, 09:36:38 PM
 #22

Does anybody noticed this? The bitcoin lost regular 85% of its value as a result of the market correction from $19,800 to $2,900 within the period of 12 months. Just like 2014 - where bitcoin went from $1,200 to $150, losing 85%. This happened to bitcoin before, does anyone here recalls 2013/2014 bitcoin correction?


It would be very nice if we could prove the repeatability of the cycles on other examples. The price history of Bitcoin looks like a growing wave, but unfortunately it is not known how long the next waves (cycles) can be and whether they will continue to grow, or if the next one will be much smaller. Many people try to look for such similarities in the hope that they will find a holy grail and will be able to predict the price. This, however, cannot be done.

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WatchMaker
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December 23, 2018, 10:21:39 PM
 #23

It's no doubt that the market is showing some signs of recovery as it adds over $30 billion in the last seven days. But, the bear market is unpredictable thus no one knows exactly when things are going to okay only time will tell.

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Baofeng
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December 23, 2018, 11:37:14 PM
 #24

Does anybody noticed this? The bitcoin lost regular 85% of its value as a result of the market correction from $19,800 to $2,900 within the period of 12 months. Just like 2014 - where bitcoin went from $1,200 to $150, losing 85%. This happened to bitcoin before, does anyone here recalls 2013/2014 bitcoin correction?


It would be very nice if we could prove the repeatability of the cycles on other examples. The price history of Bitcoin looks like a growing wave, but unfortunately it is not known how long the next waves (cycles) can be and whether they will continue to grow, or if the next one will be much smaller. Many people try to look for such similarities in the hope that they will find a holy grail and will be able to predict the price. This, however, cannot be done.

And the fact that the market is still fairly young and the data sample who have right now is so small that's why its really hard to prove and get something out of its previous past. What we only know is that the market works on cycles, but we really don't know when will the bull/bear cycle ends and starts. So its really just a coincidence that the last cycle was similar because its really hard to predict the market price.
 
I just hope so that the bear cycle has ended so that we can finally see the price moving to a direction which everyone is comfortable.

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