Predicting a bull/bear run

[Lionel]

IMO it is possible to "predict" an incoming bear or bull run with very high accuracy, in that when a whale/bull/bear is entering into play at a given moment, he does it on just one or two exchanges, not many of them, right?

Suppose he is playing on Bitstamp one day.
Then big price changes happen on Bitstamp, and in very short time those changes propagate to other exchanges, right?

But i am sure they propagate with some delay, maybe 30 seconds, so that if you trade on a minor exchange, you have all the time to take measures before the big change propagates to the exchange you are using.

I still haven't looked into it making precise graph comparisons, as it takes time to do this research.
Have you already investigated about this?
Have you found any kind of "patterns" that support what i'm saying?

 For example, have you observed whether or not the big whales always operate on those few major exchanges (say Coinbase, Bitfinex, Binance and Bitstamp), and then the price variation propagates to minor exchanges ( say Yobit, Cryptopia etc. ) with an useful delay ? (at least 10 seconds)

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[milewilda]

Have you already investigated about this?
Have you found any kind of "patterns" that support what i'm saying?

 For example, have you observed whether or not the big whales always operate on those few major exchanges (say Coinbase, Bitfinex, Binance and Bitstamp), and then the price variation propagates to minor exchanges ( say Yobit, Cryptopia etc. ) with an useful delay ? (at least 10 seconds)

The question is? Do you able to spot out easily with those movements? I doubt that only a few would really have the time to spot out such movement since we know that no one can able to detect if theres a certain whale is moving.
A simple pump up doesnt signify a bull run so predicting price reversals wont really be that just easy.We would able to find out when its already too late.

[exstasie]

IMO it is possible to "predict" an incoming bear or bull run with very high accuracy, in that when a whale/bull/bear is entering into play at a given moment, he does it on just one or two exchanges, not many of them, right?

Suppose he is playing on Bitstamp one day.
Then big price changes happen on Bitstamp, and in very short time those changes propagate to other exchanges, right?

But i am sure they propagate with some delay, maybe 30 seconds, so that if you trade on a minor exchange, you have all the time to take measures before the big change propagates to the exchange you are using.

You're doing it wrong. There's no point trying to mimic the leading exchanges. Bots will beat you to the punch every time. Humans are no match for trading algorithms when it comes to reaction time.

I would focus instead on learning TA so you can recognize when trend reversals are happening and start riding trends. That's how to make good money. Here's a couple short tutorials to get you started:

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/09/trade-with-the-trend.asp
https://forums.babypips.com/t/trend-trading-tutorial-for-beginners/110246

[Coyster]

There is no chance in a million years,you'll be able to keep track with all this manipulations carried out mostly by bots.
If it was so easy to speculate and be close to being correct,we'll all be rich through such means as we'll be able to see the bull coming.
To me it's highly improbable to foresee the market movements.

[Ronaldcoin2017]

Predicting is just an speculation there is no assurance or maybe direct basis regarding bull/ bear market. We really didn't even know when crypto coin rise or fall, I believe that all of us has a different sights about crypto, we need to be more temperate about crypto because we don't really even know when price go rise or fall due to the unstable volume of investors that invest on the crypto market. I believe crypto has a great future but we cannot really know how crypto works in the next few days we really need to hold our asset today for good.

[aervin11]

For example, have you observed whether or not the big whales always operate on those few major exchanges (say Coinbase, Bitfinex, Binance and Bitstamp), and then the price variation propagates to minor exchanges ( say Yobit, Cryptopia etc. ) with an useful delay ? (at least 10 seconds)

Let's assume that this one is true and already proven, given that you only have 10 seconds to cope with the price delay on lower exchanges, I am asking you if you have that much time to look in the market? into a specific coin a whale is trading? I bet not. Though you have your point, it's still very hard to do so, the gap is too tight.

IMO it is possible to "predict" an incoming bear or bull run with very high accuracy, in that when a whale/bull/bear is entering into play at a given moment, he does it on just one or two exchanges, not many of them, right?

Suppose he is playing on Bitstamp one day.
Then big price changes happen on Bitstamp, and in very short time those changes propagate to other exchanges, right?

But i am sure they propagate with some delay, maybe 30 seconds, so that if you trade on a minor exchange, you have all the time to take measures before the big change propagates to the exchange you are using.

You're doing it wrong. There's no point trying to mimic the leading exchanges. Bots will beat you to the punch every time. Humans are no match for trading algorithms when it comes to reaction time.

I would focus instead on learning TA so you can recognize when trend reversals are happening and start riding trends. That's how to make good money. Here's a couple short tutorials to get you started:

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/09/trade-with-the-trend.asp
https://forums.babypips.com/t/trend-trading-tutorial-for-beginners/110246

I think this idea is better. No need to create new "Analysis", just using the written trends by itself, bet this is also profitable.

[herurist]

IMO it is possible to "predict" an incoming bear or bull run with very high accuracy, in that when a whale/bull/bear is entering into play at a given moment, he does it on just one or two exchanges, not many of them, right?

Suppose he is playing on Bitstamp one day.
Then big price changes happen on Bitstamp, and in very short time those changes propagate to other exchanges, right?

But i am sure they propagate with some delay, maybe 30 seconds, so that if you trade on a minor exchange, you have all the time to take measures before the big change propagates to the exchange you are using.

I still haven't looked into it making precise graph comparisons, as it takes time to do this research.
Have you already investigated about this?
Have you found any kind of "patterns" that support what i'm saying?

 For example, have you observed whether or not the big whales always operate on those few major exchanges (say Coinbase, Bitfinex, Binance and Bitstamp), and then the price variation propagates to minor exchanges ( say Yobit, Cryptopia etc. ) with an useful delay ? (at least 10 seconds)

I only see prediction, you're not whales. People have different strategy to face market risk and of course they have enough preparation about that. Bull and bear is about moment and moment can end any time they want. I interesting about graph comparisons, this is new and maybe can useful for my swing strategy.

[d1ceplayer]

It is really difficulty to predicting a "run" , that is usually means it will take a long time.

For example, when bitcoin moved from 3500 to 4200 that wasn't really a "run", it was a good time of course and I hope many more like that happens in the following weeks but when you think about a "run" its usually a bigger change. Like when bitcoin went from 3k to 20k or when it went from 20k to 7k or when it moved from 6k to 3k, those are all "runs" but from 3500 to 4200 doesn't seem like a run.

However, if you are looking for those type of small stuff than check out the support and resistance and when bitcoin breaks one of them it usually goes all the way to the next one, if it breaks the support line it will definitely go to the next support line and if it breaks the resistance than it will go to the next resistance, those small number changes are almost always tied together.

[arpon11]

I could remember having this type of ideas some time last year when I was trading arbitrage.  It is fundamental for us to know that the big whales trade most on the big exchange with high volume and in any way they have decided to push the market to we only see the infect about some few minutes late except we decided to be visiting the other books every time on those big exchange.

[bravehearth0319]

In predicting a bull / bear run was no difference if we do trade in the market exchange. Majority of the community in the forum  they've predicted that before end of this year bull run will happen in the market. But we only have 1 week left to go before end of this year and yet bull run is not done yet also. Which means it is proven that the market was too unpredictable.

[NeuroticFish]

Have you already investigated about this?

No, but it may not help at all. Arbitrage bots are "trained" to handle the spikes quicker than you could. The ones doing arbitrage for real already have money in all the exchanges, so even if you see the delayed bull run, you already compete with those bots.
Also if you don't know what you do you may mistake the bigger buys for bull runs.
I think that what you want to do is prone to big errors and it may not help you much (is more like a gamble, really).

[gembirdprivate]

I didn't investigate it either, but I really want to do it. But your assumptions are correct, keep analyzing.

[maydna]

I don't investigate that because I don't have more information or knowledge to find out. I think if your mean is about arbitrage trading, then I don't believe that it will always work because each exchange have a short delay plus we have a transaction that needs to confirm and sometimes, it needs longer than we can expect.

It was still difficult to predict when the bear and the bull run happen, but perhaps, we can get a clue if the volume increase higher suddenly and something might happen in the next hours. I think the whales gather in the big exchanges which have a big list of coins although I am sure that they have another account in the small exchange too to following the moving of the price.

[Oasisman]

A bull run is being initiated by the market manipulators, and manipulation is designed to be unnoticed in any possible way. So, prediction remains the level of how you knew the risks from the very beginning you learned to trade. I dont know, but what you have suggested is very difficult to invistigate. I'd rather depend on the TA's as it helps me alot on following todays up and down trends

[el kaka22]

A bull run is being initiated by the market manipulators, and manipulation is designed to be unnoticed in any possible way. So, prediction remains the level of how you knew the risks from the very beginning you learned to trade. I dont know, but what you have suggested is very difficult to invistigate. I'd rather depend on the TA's as it helps me alot on following todays up and down trends

Why a bull run cannot happen by its own without those market manipulators doing so ? I mean when there are positive news, then everyone will start buying then that must be a start of a bull run. Here we do not need any market manipulators to be working unnoticed. I guess you have misunderstood how the market is working and how a bull trend and beer trend are not happening   time to time.

Bull/bear run just indications of news and events happening around that systems. We do not need any whales for those bull or bear run to be happening. But, manipulators are just part of every market and we cannot do anything about them. Still, they will lose their power over the time when more people will be participating in to that market. It means we do not need to worry about manipulators as they will be having limited power over the course of time.

[rhomzkie26]

In the first place dude, it is very hard for the individuals here in the forum to predict what will could be the price in the future.
Actually, there are lots of community this year who predicted that bull run will be done before end of this year 2018, but honestly their prediction was totally failed now. It is absolutely, that this year was a bearish season.

[Oasisman]

A bull run is being initiated by the market manipulators, and manipulation is designed to be unnoticed in any possible way. So, prediction remains the level of how you knew the risks from the very beginning you learned to trade. I dont know, but what you have suggested is very difficult to invistigate. I'd rather depend on the TA's as it helps me alot on following todays up and down trends

Why a bull run cannot happen by its own without those market manipulators doing so ? I mean when there are positive news, then everyone will start buying then that must be a start of a bull run. Here we do not need any market manipulators to be working unnoticed. I guess you have misunderstood how the market is working and how a bull trend and beer trend are not happening   time to time.

Bull/bear run just indications of news and events happening around that systems. We do not need any whales for those bull or bear run to be happening. But, manipulators are just part of every market and we cannot do anything about them. Still, they will lose their power over the time when more people will be participating in to that market. It means we do not need to worry about manipulators as they will be having limited power over the course of time.

Youre right I dont have anything against your statement. I was just pointing out on the manipulators  point of view. I knew the good news or positive speculations alone may help make a bull run in the market, but in every market, manipulators or whales presence are always there and  thats inevitable. I was just being one sided due to the fact that some people starts buying when they see an upward trend thats basically initiated by whales ( Just like what usually happens everytime the price of a specific coin pump and eventually drops) and thats how the people help the price grow in no time.

[fiomcorka]

IMO it is possible to "predict" an incoming bear or bull run with very high accuracy, in that when a whale/bull/bear is entering into play at a given moment, he does it on just one or two exchanges, not many of them, right?

Suppose he is playing on Bitstamp one day.
Then big price changes happen on Bitstamp, and in very short time those changes propagate to other exchanges, right?

But i am sure they propagate with some delay, maybe 30 seconds, so that if you trade on a minor exchange, you have all the time to take measures before the big change propagates to the exchange you are using.

I still haven't looked into it making precise graph comparisons, as it takes time to do this research.
Have you already investigated about this?
Have you found any kind of "patterns" that support what i'm saying?

 For example, have you observed whether or not the big whales always operate on those few major exchanges (say Coinbase, Bitfinex, Binance and Bitstamp), and then the price variation propagates to minor exchanges ( say Yobit, Cryptopia etc. ) with an useful delay ? (at least 10 seconds)

I do think that is possible. You can predict a Bull or bear market with high accuracy, but what I think is not possible is people trying to predict what would be the accurate price of any cryptocurrency in a given time. Just like those that predicted that the price of Bitcoin will be $25,000 before the end of this year. We have few days before this year ends but the price is still very far from that.

[Matthewmorris4]

in my opinion the predictions of the bear / bull run only have a success percentage of 55%, because 45% is another factor that influences the big news, whether good or bad, it still affects, and is added with whales if they start playing their role

[Kemarit]

~ snip ~

I still haven't looked into it making precise graph comparisons, as it takes time to do this research.
Have you already investigated about this?
Have you found any kind of "patterns" that support what i'm saying?

 ~ snip ~

Nah. It will just make things more complicated in your end. Remember that most traders are using bot so I'm pretty sure that they can analyze and execute order faster before you can even move your mouse. I would suggest you look for other approach because you might got burn trying to do all the research that move be as effective as you think, IMHO.

[deandree]

Few months ago I built a tool to see if there is any correlation and/or time delay between pump starting on one exchange and price change in others. My conclusion was that there is almost 0 difference and 0 chance to use this for profit, unless you are looking at  milliseconds and have a very fast bot close to exchanges. You have to keep in mind there are thousands of bots looking at each exchange in any point in time, so you can't take advantage of this if you are trading manually. Even if you have a good bot, you have to be a top top player in this.

[Capt.Morris]

tool and bots are a fair in real time judgement, I see a bear market but tools may say a bull for a short period of time.

[Harlot]

It doesn't guarantee that the price change in one exchange will also happen in direct proportion to other exchanges. I have observed it in the past some exchanges' prices always jumps wilder than other smaller exchanges so it is really hard to based your decision on such price movements. I even also see sometimes that even when the price jumps on another exchange the other prices of some exchange don't even move at all even after 20-30 seconds.

[Ewinsane]

Suppose he is playing on Bitstamp one day.
Then big price changes happen on Bitstamp, and in very short time those changes propagate to other exchanges, right?

But i am sure they propagate with some delay, maybe 30 seconds, so that if you trade on a minor exchange, you have all the time to take measures before the big change propagates to the exchange you are using.

It is always good to look into negative side before trying anything which will be involving with your hard earned money.
I'm giving you two scenarios where you may get failed with your observation :

1. There are multiple major exchanges, hence you cannot be sure a tide of new trend will always be happening where you are watching. It may or may not happen where you are watching. I guess, incorporating a bot for watching a sudden change may help in this regard.

2. Some buy or sell may not sustain within an exchange also. It means, if bitcoin is pumped in bitstamp and you are buying in a some small exchange and then you are waiting for others to rush-in. But, there will be a chances in bitstamp itself prices are getting dumped. It means a sudden wave may get neutralized within an exchange also.

[cryptocrusher]

The price levels out across most smaller exchanges within minutes or seconds to major movements because of arbitrage, there's little to learn from it and that's the only real way to profit from it, it is now largely dominated by bots however.

[Baby Dragon]

Actually, no one can predict if next year there will be another bull run or bear market. However, we most expect in bull run which we can gain and regain income and losses. I expecting for another bull for this coming 2019 and many experts say that it will happen again so do not lose our hope for this bull run.

[btcdevil]

As much i know predicting a bull / bear run can not be done , who ever is predicting is just a guess work and if it goes correct it is good , if you always trade in practical way then ithink even in 2019 we will bear trend for some months.

[naidray]

As much i know predicting a bull / bear run can not be done , who ever is predicting is just a guess work and if it goes correct it is good , if you always trade in practical way then ithink even in 2019 we will bear trend for some months.

I guess you are forgetting completely about technical analysis which involves lot of trading tools and strategies. Yes, you can predict the direction of market using technical tools even if you are unable to predict the exact price levels. But, OP here is stating about predicting an upcoming movement in small exchanges based on bitstamp and other major exchanges. It may be possible in some occasions and cannot be sure it will work for all 100% of times. Just like any other strategies.

Predicting the direction of a market is involved lots of criteria and factors. When everything will be meeting and satisfied then there will be chances for accurate predictions. But we cannot be sure that each and every parameter will be met all the times so that we can be sure about accurate prediction.

[Ucy]

Interesting question.
I don't know if the time difference is very noticeable. Change in Price seems to be simultaneous across exchange  maybe with slight difference.   
Perhaps you are looking for arbitrage trading opportunity?

You could monitor the price of Bitcoin on multiple exchanges at thesame time (with TabTrader) to see things for yourself.
 

Orderbook should kind of help keep the price from moving ahead of others.

[leowonderful]

It's pretty hard to predict patterns in crypto trading, and as a general rule, I usually only trade confirmed/complete patterns as trading without them is essentially just gambling. You're never going to be quickest to predict a bear or bull run, but what you can do is ride patterns that are already happening and make your profits there. It's worked for me so far in in these volatile markets, and it's generally not difficult to find such patterns.

[nydiacaskey01]

A bull run is being initiated by the market manipulators, and manipulation is designed to be unnoticed in any possible way. So, prediction remains the level of how you knew the risks from the very beginning you learned to trade. I dont know, but what you have suggested is very difficult to invistigate. I'd rather depend on the TA's as it helps me alot on following todays up and down trends

Nope its not initiated by manipulators. Like what happened last year, its not initiated by manipulators. There's always a reason why there's a bull run, there is something that will trigger a bull run. It's the market that will make the bull run again and complete the momentum to consider it as a bull run. Few days ago, price of BTC jumped 32% in 72 hours if the momentum continued and reached another ATH, that could have been a bull run.

[therhslv]

in my opinion the predictions of the bear / bull run only have a success percentage of 55%, because 45% is another factor that influences the big news, whether good or bad, it still affects, and is added with whales if they start playing their role

Actually i think its way less than that . Reading graph is just a guessing based on past actions , i would say by reading graph you can make odds on your favor by less than 10% , no more Maybe if we had marketcap of trillions on crypto then by reading graphs you had a chance of 55% , because currently its so hard to read / guess because of big volatility

[richminded]

Actually, no one can predict if next year there will be another bull run or bear market. However, we most expect in bull run which we can gain and regain income and losses. I expecting for another bull for this coming 2019 and many experts say that it will happen again so do not lose our hope for this bull run.

Despite of the dump market this year many investors are still believe that 2019 will deliver a good run to us and hoping that the bull will appear again. Predictions is not accurate, we can say whatever price we wanted to say but there is no assurance for that one, so its better to predict without any expectations.