Bitcoin Price Closing in on Resistance at $4,000 — Will The Rally Hold?

[cybersofts]

The bitcoin price on Wednesday showed minor upside movements as it maintained the gains made during yesterday’s session.


Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis
The BTC/USD exchange rate posted as much as 1.5 percent in gains during the first half of the trading session. The pair notably eyed a rally towards $4,000 but corrected ahead of establishing the said upside target, eventually falling to $3,843, its value at the time of writing.


BITCOIN 1D CHART | SOURCE: COINBASE, TRADINGVIEW.COM

The price action also confirmed a firm price action similar to what market had encountered during the November 24-December 3 trading session. The higher low of November 27 at $3,567 is now serving as support to the interim consolidation range, while $4,000 continues to be a psychological resistance. There are notably enough opportunities for day traders provide by a decent gap between the two parameters. However, in the long-term, the bitcoin market is still inside a giant descending channel, now nearing the channel line for a potential breakdown/pullback scenario.

The bitcoin price is also noticing a strong resistance sentiment near its 50-period moving average depicted in sky blue. During the consolidation period above $6,000, the same moving average had capped every upside attempt. As of now, the market has seen the 50-period rejecting one rally attempt, and bitcoin is again closing in towards it to pursue a potential interim breakout action towards the main trendline above.

The RSI on daily charts continues to face resistance inside 55-58 area, indicating the presence of strong bearish sentiment near these levels. The momentum indicator hasn’t entered its overbought zone since July 24, 2018.

The early US session reports are indicating a stronger dollar for the rest of the day on weak Chinese manufacturing data. The greenback is posing itself as a safe haven, and a high yield would likely boost its demand in the market. Bitcoin has a little opportunity in the macroeconomic circle as long as fiats like the dollar and yen are fulfilling the demand.

Intraday Targets

BITCOIN 1H CHART | SOURCE: COINBASE, TRADINGVIEW.COM

For the rest of the US trading session, we are hoping that bitcoin will continue to consolidate between the trading range defined by $3,885 as resistance and $3,567 as support. The decent gap between the said parameters initially allows us to apply our intrarange strategy, i.e., entering a long towards resistance on a bounce from support and a short towards support on a pullback from resistance. A risk management strategy, meanwhile, should have us maintain a stop loss order just 1-pip in the opposite direction of our order.

In case the bitcoin price breaks the resistance level, we will switch to our breakout strategy and enter a long position towards $4,000. A stop loss order maintained just 1-pip below the entry point will minimize our losses should the upside bias get rejected once again. Similarly, a break below support would have us open a short position towards $3,437, our downside target, while maintaining a stop loss order just 1-pip above the entry point.


Reference: https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-price-closing-in-on-resistance-at-4000-will-the-rally-hold/

[el kaka22]

Its incredibly close, funny thing is it really never stops here, never did before. Normally I am used to seeing bitcoin at 3800 in the past 1.5-2 months, I am used to seeing it at 4200 as well both of those numbers were hit quite frequently in the past 2 months, however prices went up to 4200 and went down to 3800 repeatedly, it never really "stopped" at midway at around 4000 which has been this new thing.

If it gets to 4500 and than goes back to 4000 and make that the new duo than I would be incredibly happy but if it goes down and makes the 3500-3600 to 4000 the new duo that would be really sad because that is even lower duo than the previous one. Hence we need to really be careful about the next trends, if the trends are higher and back its great but ifs lower and back than its scary.

[WinslowIII]

Its incredibly close, funny thing is it really never stops here, never did before. Normally I am used to seeing bitcoin at 3800 in the past 1.5-2 months, I am used to seeing it at 4200 as well both of those numbers were hit quite frequently in the past 2 months, however prices went up to 4200 and went down to 3800 repeatedly, it never really "stopped" at midway at around 4000 which has been this new thing.

If it gets to 4500 and than goes back to 4000 and make that the new duo than I would be incredibly happy but if it goes down and makes the 3500-3600 to 4000 the new duo that would be really sad because that is even lower duo than the previous one. Hence we need to really be careful about the next trends, if the trends are higher and back its great but ifs lower and back than its scary.

Why is it scary if a dump to new lows happens? why don't you legendary hodlers who hold a bunch of cheap or free bitcoins stop being so fucking greedy and let newbs into the market.
I say let it crash to sub $1k, let everyone have a chance at cheap coins again and let the bull market start in a couple years. No fear here, why are you scared of that?

[harizen]

Why is it scary if a dump to new lows happens? why don't you legendary hodlers who hold a bunch of cheap or free bitcoins stop being so fucking greedy and let newbs into the market.

More dumps at "new lows" will lead into another bottom. On the other hand, might result too on another way around. Who knows.

Want to play with the market? You can do it anytime at any trend. Why the hell blame the oldies. It's on your own hands how to deal with the market. We have different approaches here so make yours.


Will the rally hold?

I don't called or consider a price rally if the price just went active in a certain"price ranges within a small period. As of typing, price is still swinging on a certain ranges. For now, will not bother for any surprised price movement that will happened. Will just watch what will happened next.

[WinslowIII]

Why is it scary if a dump to new lows happens? why don't you legendary hodlers who hold a bunch of cheap or free bitcoins stop being so fucking greedy and let newbs into the market.

More dumps at "new lows" will lead into another bottom. On the other hand, might result too on another way around. Who knows.

Want to play with the market? You can do it anytime at any trend. Why the hell blame the oldies. It's on your own hands how to deal with the market. We have different approaches here so make yours.


Will the rally hold?

I don't called or consider a price rally if the price just went active in a certain"price ranges within a small period. As of typing, price is still swinging on a certain ranges. For now, will not bother for any surprised price movement that will happened. Will just watch what will happened next.

There's no reason to expect the price to stop falling, so I'd like to just see a freefall vs these new half price floors that last a couple months. What this is creating are new holders who suddently find themselves underwater with coins they thought were cheap. The way this is descending is very bad for those trying to enter the market - what we need is the real floor to appear and stick around for a good 6 months to a year, like the $200s of 2015. If it's going into the teens just let it fucking get there already and let people accumulate without getting fucked in the ass when a new lower price floor appears.

[1Referee]

If it's going into the teens just let it fucking get there already and let people accumulate without getting fucked in the ass when a new lower price floor appears.

That's what dollar cost averaging is for. Even if it falls down more, you'll hedge most of that by buying the dips every now and then. I would say that buying every 10%ish dip from where we are right now is a great way to enter the market.

The market isn't going to bottom out or consolidate at levels people want it to bottom out or consolidate at. In the long run, buying at $3800 or $3000 won't even make a difference. If you aren't comfortable with the market while accumulating, you can always have a short open as insurance, just make sure you utilize the stop loss function accordingly.

Bitmex pays out in BTC so price down means more BTC for you.

[samson]

Personally I think we're going down...maybe not just yet, there's a long way to fall before coins are 'cheap'....

[figmentofmyass]

There's no reason to expect the price to stop falling, so I'd like to just see a freefall vs these new half price floors that last a couple months. What this is creating are new holders who suddently find themselves underwater with coins they thought were cheap. The way this is descending is very bad for those trying to enter the market - what we need is the real floor to appear and stick around for a good 6 months to a year, like the $200s of 2015.

you're right, there's no reason to expect the price to stop falling. that's why you have to wait for bulls to show strength---strongly buying up the capitulation lows like they did in 2015---before assuming any buy-ins are safe.

i was around in 2015. what you have to keep in mind is that entire year (up until november anyway) felt like the bottom was going to fall out at any moment. it didn't feel bullish or like a floor at all. it felt like part of the bear market. that's something to keep in mind during times like these.

If it's going into the teens just let it fucking get there already and let people accumulate without getting fucked in the ass when a new lower price floor appears.

That's what dollar cost averaging is for. Even if it falls down more, you'll hedge most of that by buying the dips every now and then. I would say that buying every 10%ish dip from where we are right now is a great way to enter the market.

dollar cost averaging isn't the worst strategy, but it's probably difficult psychologically for newer investors who have bought into a constantly bleeding market. i'm sure some of the people averaging down and buying dips in 2018 will (or have) capitulate(d) at lower prices. that's one of the reasons why most experienced traders will advise against averaging down in bear markets. you'll never know when the bottom is in.

[exstasie]

Why is it scary if a dump to new lows happens? why don't you legendary hodlers who hold a bunch of cheap or free bitcoins stop being so fucking greedy and let newbs into the market.
I say let it crash to sub $1k, let everyone have a chance at cheap coins again and let the bull market start in a couple years. No fear here, why are you scared of that?

I suppose nobody likes to see their portfolio in the red.

For the most part, it won't be newbs and retail investors who are buying at sub-$1K. They're more likely to be selling down there, near the bottom. Retail capitulation is often a prerequisite for bull markets. The newbs will buy in during the next bubble.

[davis196]

The new year is a time to "declare" and pay some cryptocurrency taxes.
Last January,many people were pointing crypto taxes as a reason for the btc price going down from it's ATH(including a few other factors).
Now,nobody is talking about this.I wonder why?

[omonuyak]

There was a withdrawing back as at yesterday and that means there is not enough momentum for price to go on further.  I think bitcoin may not break that resistance level ($4000) this week and we should expect this to happen by next week as the market is giving the sign of bullish.

[Jating]

There was a withdrawing back as at yesterday and that means there is not enough momentum for price to go on further.  I think bitcoin may not break that resistance level ($4000) this week and we should expect this to happen by next week as the market is giving the sign of bullish.

There is no bullish sign for bitcoin as far as I'm concern. What we are seeing is that Ethereum has carried the rest of crypto so at least make a rally. I say this because Ethereum will have a fork in the coming days that's why it's been slowly increasing day by day.

If Ethereum will continue to be pump leading up to the fork date then we might see bitcoin touches $4K again, but the questions remains, will it sustain it or will another dump happen after Ethereum's fork?

[exstasie]

There was a withdrawing back as at yesterday and that means there is not enough momentum for price to go on further.  I think bitcoin may not break that resistance level ($4000) this week and we should expect this to happen by next week as the market is giving the sign of bullish.

We're running into typical resistance at the 50-day MA:



I'm still leaning bullish as well though. It still looks like a bullish consolidation, coiling below resistance. Shorter term, a few hundred dollar dip is possible, but on the 1-day chart I'm expecting another leg up, possibly into the $5,000s.

[Whosdaddy]

If the price goes up to 5 thousands I think it would be really difficult to go back down anymore. Not on the chart sense because I am sure if people looked and searched carefully they can find charts that show us going to 50 thousand dollars and showing we are going to 100 dollars, each are possible with which type of charts they prepare to be honest with you.

But, if we manage to get to 5 thousand dollars and above that would mean we break a "psychological" barrier and that would be on the rise for a new potential bull. Even if bull doesn't come from outside we would probably so happy about the 5 thousand dollars that we will hype ourselves and increase it without any outside help.

Of course without any real new investment put into crypto it would be hard to sustain it but in the end it would be hard to drop back to under 4 thousand after that.

[Thirdspace]

the first chart shows downtrend price since early 2018 and doesn't seem to show any reversal point yet
imo, even if the rally hold, it needs to break ~$6,500 before we can say we are in bullish market
what I'm seeing from the chart is we may see another low, close to or below $3,000 anytime soon
but I'm hoping the "halving reward" event will trigger the market to enter bullish phase

[BitHodler]

But, if we manage to get to 5 thousand dollars and above that would mean we break a "psychological" barrier and that would be on the rise for a new potential bull. Even if bull doesn't come from outside we would probably so happy about the 5 thousand dollars that we will hype ourselves and increase it without any outside help.

Don't think the $5000 mark holds much importance other than it being a round number. The previous support just above $5700 is what's most likely going to form a make or break level this year.

And what exactly do you mean with 'we will hype ourselves'? That we'll believe in a bull run just as much as people did before the main support in November of last year was broken? That's going to hurt real bad.

I prefer people to remain bearish for a couple of more months. Being overly bullish has never yielded anything other than people losing their mind and most of what they held in fiat and crypto....