Bitcoin Price: Analyst Willy Woo Says Bears Still Have the Upper Hand

[cybersofts]

The Bitcoin price dropped almost 80% over the year, dragging the crypto market with it. Short-term bulls believe the market could be ripe for a bullish run. They cite the steady increase in Bitcoin’s trade volumes and transaction rate.

Researcher and cryptocurrency analyst Willy Woo believes this might not be the case. In a set of tweets, Woo argues that the on-chain volumes are just too little for a sustained run. He cites volatility as a reason for the increased on-chain volume seen in recent weeks.

    “The initial volume spike false signaled a faster detox and an earlier end to the bear market, but in fact, it was a volatility side effect. That move from $6k to $3k created immense trade volume, but it was in no way a signal that accumulation volume had begun.”

    The initial volume spike false signaled a faster detox and an earlier end to the bear market, but in fact, it was a volatility side effect. That move from $6k to $3k created immense trade volume, but it was in no way a signal that accumulation volume had begun.

    — Willy Woo (@woonomic) January 5, 2019

Network Value to Transactions Ratio

Volumes have reduced to normal amounts. The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) chart being on the high side means the value being transmitted on the network is lower than the valuation of the network.

The NVT ratio is an insightful metric created by Woo. It estimates the intrinsic values of digital assets, allowing investors to know when the Bitcoin price is too high or too low.

    That volume has since subsided. Leaving the NVT chart on the high side of its oscillation around the main move downwards. The key thing here, in my interpretation, is it's on the high side of its band, so I think an up move is limited, bears will win the longer term trade. pic.twitter.com/j5ZYZVJFU8

    — Willy Woo (@woonomic) January 5, 2019

Woo had predicted a bearish outlook for bitcoin in November 2018. He argued that the downward pressure on the world’s most popular cryptocurrency could persist till the second half of 2019. He cited data from NVTS, which he said had broken below its support levels. Woo concluded it was unlikely for Bitcoin to break above its 200-Day Moving Average (DMA).

At the time, he had said:

    If price (in the short term) bounces upwards here, which is certainly possible, I think the 200 day moving average is the upper band of the move. This is ~$7k right now. Remember if the price goes above the 200 DMA, in the history of BTCUSD’s 8-year trade history, it’s been a reliable indicator of a bear to bull transitions. It’s too early to transition out of the bear.

At press time, Bitcoin trades at $3,845 on Coinbase, up from an intraday high of $3,972. The overall market capitalization stands at $132 billion. It has a lot of support around these levels. As Joseph Young recently wrote:

    Currently, despite the relatively stable past few weeks demonstrated by the majority of crypto assets, the market still remains down by around 43 percent from November levels.

The extreme volatility in the Bitcoin price is both what attracts and repels investors. Willy Woo is often right. However, the market has a way of surprising people. Meanwhile, Chinese analysts predict an extended bear market into 2019.


Reference: https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-price-analyst-willy-woo-says-bears-still-have-the-upper-hand/

[wuvdoll]

It is kind of acceptable that bears might be in favor. To understand it clearly in layman terms the real problem is there are people with a whole lot of bitcoins, that is why even if the price looks great and everything is going amazing at the end we can definitely see someone selling a lot of coins and we can still drop. In order for us to get away from that danger we need to have such a big volume that even if someone sells 10 thousand bitcoins all at once it shouldn't be a problem and for that to happen we need to have probably at least x10 more volume.

Bears do not really have the "upper hand" maybe because not many people want bitcoin to fall further right now but the situation is just too available for anyone to sell and get out of the market, not for purposes of selling to drop the price but just getting out and finally profit after months of loss.

[HODL2090]

A pretty plausible analysis using verifiable fact and evidences. There has beeb lots of predictions leaning towards a bullish trend, but as it is there is still possibility of the value dropping further down.
Progress has been made, and also developments on the network, hopefully this reflects on the value in the near future.

[hatshepsut93]

Well, the market is clearly not bullish, so it must still be bearish. Maybe we've passed the bottom, or a still very close to it, but a crazy bull rally is still far ahead, because the recovery will be slow and full of bull traps. But this only means that now is a great time to slowly accumulate, instead of trying to catch the bottom it's better to buy over a longer period of time.

[exstasie]

If price (in the short term) bounces upwards here, which is certainly possible, I think the 200 day moving average is the upper band of the move.

I'm also looking at the 200-day MA, but we sometimes thrust above it temporarily in bull traps. That happened multiple times in 2018. So I'm also looking at the 20-week MA as a potential topping area for any rally. It acted as strong resistance in July and Sept-Nov 2018. It also formed the ceiling of the 2015 trading range.

Right now, it stands slightly above $5,500 (Bitstamp) and dropping. That lines up well with the 70.5% (OTE) retrace of the crash and long term candle resistance from the November 18th-19th failure. If we get there, it looks like a great area to sell!

[randythered]

Anyone claiming that bitcoin is bullish at this point is severely jumping the gun. The market has been bearish for nearly 1 whole year now and nothing short of a big bullish movement spanning 1 - 2 months is going to convince a large portion of people otherwise. So many people called the bottom at 6k and they were wrong, it could be true for 3k as well.

[pixie85]

Anyone claiming that bitcoin is bullish at this point is severely jumping the gun. The market has been bearish for nearly 1 whole year now and nothing short of a big bullish movement spanning 1 - 2 months is going to convince a large portion of people otherwise. So many people called the bottom at 6k and they were wrong, it could be true for 3k as well.

I'm not saying it's bullish but it's also no longer bearish. The way I see it we are in a pause between markets and will go bullish in the end of it. Many people who post their predictions on youtube are too bullish but Willy Woo along with his friend Tone Vays are both so bearish that I doubt they will scream bull market even when it kicks them in their asses.

[BitHodler]

Anyone claiming that bitcoin is bullish at this point is severely jumping the gun. The market has been bearish for nearly 1 whole year now and nothing short of a big bullish movement spanning 1 - 2 months is going to convince a large portion of people otherwise. So many people called the bottom at 6k and they were wrong, it could be true for 3k as well.

People are easily convinced that the price will either go up a lot or down a lot. It all depends on what the price is doing right now. The flow of the market is the main driver when it comes to the sentiment in the market.

If we tank to $3500 people will dig up articles stating that $1500 is near. If we reach $4000 people speculate about the next bull run and the potential high that comes with it. It has always been like this.

As for the $6000 mark, yeah, I was expecting the worst due to how bullish people were at that point, and the market did the opposite. People have only themselves to blame for this. You don't go against the market, period.

[exstasie]

Anyone claiming that bitcoin is bullish at this point is severely jumping the gun. The market has been bearish for nearly 1 whole year now and nothing short of a big bullish movement spanning 1 - 2 months is going to convince a large portion of people otherwise. So many people called the bottom at 6k and they were wrong, it could be true for 3k as well.

There's an ancient Chinese proverb for this: "He who picks bottom has smelly finger."

Bottom pickers and knife catchers always get punished by the market. The bottom will only be clear in hindsight, long after it happens. There's no point predicting a bull market as long as we're below the 200-day and 20-week MAs, for starters.

[pooya87]

it is that particular time at the end of any trend where all those people who are stuck in the old trend and refuse to accept the reversal, are trying so hard to convince others that their trend is still the ongoing one. we saw this mostly with Tom Lee's bullish predictions of the whole last year where he talked about new ATH and now we are seeing those who are stuck in the bearish trend and want a new ATL after the ATH!

[adaseb]

Bitcoin is basically both bullish and bearish at the exact time.

Looking at the monthly charts we are definitely Bullish
The weekly and daily are bearish but the H4 and lower time frames are bullish.

This is why I don't trust anything these analyst ever say because they are more or less guessing and will usually lead to loss of funds if you follow them blindly.

Currently I am waiting for the $4200 area to break with volume and we should retest our old strong support at $6000 which is resistance now.

[exstasie]

Currently I am waiting for the $4200 area to break with volume and we should retest our old strong support at $6000 which is resistance now.

That's what I'm looking for. I'm not sure we'll make it all the way to $6K, but I'm aiming somewhere north of $5K and will play it by ear.

There's an inverse head-and-shoulder pattern that's nearly completed. The neckline is ~ $4,150 and a break of the $4,236 high will confirm. That might give us the fuel we need to test the 20-week MA and maybe the $6K level.

[Yeahpro]

The market has shown more of organic and sustainable growth over the last days, although slow, it's more preferred to sudden jumps followed by sharp falls.
There are supposed levels that have to be broken through inorder to truly launch a price surge.
$4300 would be a good break out level.

Anyone has any suggestions on the ethereum fork and if indeed it affects other currencies?

[Wind_FURY]

Bitcoin has always been a marathon. For the people who bought and expected a "quick sprint" back to ATH, be prepared to be disappointed. Or sell.

[I Am Hero]

we will soon see him and all those like him who are either crying because they missed the chance or shorted at a bad time or we see them laughing their asses off because they misled others

[Febo]

Bitcoin Price: Analyst Willy Woo Says Bears Still Have the Upper Hand

Even if bottom was reach last Month it is still normal that bears have upper hand. We are still many many moths away from bull market and just a month after bear market finished.  Of course no one said that bottom was reached. If it was not we will see some more bear trends ahead.

[Juggy777]

we will soon see him and all those like him who are either crying because they missed the chance or shorted at a bad time or we see them laughing their asses off because they misled others

I don't believe completely in his words, or for that matter any big personality who comes out and gives his predictions as bitcoins is to volatile to predict it. Also bear traders will never speak of bullish trends, they'll always try to put the market under the impression that bears are ruling the market. I feel if bitcoins can sustain 4500$ for the next few days we may see 5000$ levels soon, which I believe shall be the new resistance but we need more adoption and stability for the next few days.

[normanz]

The bear market still survives, but this year I don't think the market will fully remain a bear market, and I still believe there will be a bullish market coming this year.

[Kemarit]

Bitcoin has always been a marathon. For the people who bought and expected a "quick sprint" back to ATH, be prepared to be disappointed. Or sell.

Or we can call it a journey.

Currently I am waiting for the $4200 area to break with volume and we should retest our old strong support at $6000 which is resistance now.

We really need to break the $4200 levels otherwise we are still in the danger zone and might see another drop in the $3800'ish. So retesting $6000 might take longer, but we all know that once this market turns into a bullish trend there's no stopping it.

[Pursuer]

the only thing that is dominant and has the "upper hand" is the current lack of confidence in short term performance of bitcoin. in other words since a large portion of the investors have not yet seen the rise (positive performance) so they are still unsure about whether they should start investing back their money at this point or wait for a "better greedier" opportunity.

otherwise the bear market has been over for a very long time now and the last sharp drop still doesn't make it a "bear movement".
at this point the market is ready for a sharp rise. all it needs is a catalyst that can put a spark in the market and bring back a little bit of that confidence and removes some greediness and then we will be on our way upwards again.