Bitcoin price and January

[reactorjuno]

Hi folks,

It will probably not be a very popular thread but I'll go for it.

We noticed several times now that Bitcoin has a strange tendancy to go down in January, pretty much every year. It was definitely the case in 2018 (happy new year by the way).

Context is very different in 2019, but we had similar cases, for example a crash in January 2015 > https://www.cnbc.com/2015/01/14/bitcoin-falls-below-200-making-some-investors-worry-about-downward-spiral.html

I know many don't want to hear that but just curious, it could very well happen again. Some say this is due to Chinese new year (people cashing out to buy again in March or April). I am not sure but I am curious if it happens again this year, we could go back to a price near $3000 per coin.

Just some thoughts, perhaps some of you are anticipating such trend again.

Any constructive opinion welcome.

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[exstasie]

Hi folks,

It will probably not be a very popular thread but I'll go for it.

We noticed several times now that Bitcoin has a strange tendancy to go down in January, pretty much every year. It was definitely the case in 2018 (happy new year by the way).

Not necessarily. When I look at the monthly candle chart, I see that January was a green candle in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014. The last several years have been red candles, but it might just be a coincidence.

I know many don't want to hear that but just curious, it could very well happen again. Some say this is due to Chinese new year (people cashing out to buy again in March or April). I am not sure but I am curious if it happens again this year, we could go back to a price near $3000 per coin.

Just some thoughts, perhaps some of you are anticipating such trend again.

This is obviously a bear market, so regardless of any fundamental reasons we should be prepared for another test of $3K and maybe lower. In the mid term, I'm looking for this bull trap to end higher ($5K-$5,500 is my guess) but I have a feeling we'll get a taste of the $2,000s before the bottom is in.

[NeuroticFish]

This is obviously a bear market, so regardless of any fundamental reasons we should be prepared for another test of $3K and maybe lower. In the mid term, I'm looking for this bull trap to end higher ($5K-$5,500 is my guess) but I have a feeling we'll get a taste of the $2,000s before the bottom is in.

There's something else to take into consideration. Something that may have an impact or not (I expect at least a short-term impact) : it's the launch of Bakkt in 24 January.
So this January may look way different from last year's, at least until Bakkt is launched. And yes, this could bring $5K+; and this could even make the $2k prediction not happen (although I wouldn't bet too much on that).

[BestSSS]

In the bitcoin chart since 2009, there is undoubtedly a downward trend in the price at the beginning of the year and what this is due to is difficult to say. The main reason I see a gradual growth of bitcoin during the year and fixing the profit of players at the end of the year.
Last year did not show us the profit and logically January 2019 should not be similar to previous years when the price was falling. I expect the price of bitcoin to rise to the level of $ 5,000 before the key event-the decision on the Bakkt platform.

[Kevin77]

The thing about bitcoin is that price doesn't always do the same thing.

For example there is no reason to believe that bitcoin will go down like 2015 did when the price didn't actually went up in December like it did last year. Why would you think that bitcoin price will go down due to Chinese new year like some years ago it did while you do not think the price should have gone up during December ? That is just one example, it just shows you that bitcoin could do anything at any month but previously happened stuff doesn't reflect on what will happen in the future.

Could bitcoin go as low as 3000? It could go even lower, who knows. However it is just not certain, it could very well go above 5000 as well, both are as possible as it gets equally so we just need to focus on ahead and see what waits for us instead of looking back and seeing what could happen.

[Kemarit]

Hi folks,

It will probably not be a very popular thread but I'll go for it.

We noticed several times now that Bitcoin has a strange tendancy to go down in January, pretty much every year. It was definitely the case in 2018 (happy new year by the way).

Context is very different in 2019, but we had similar cases, for example a crash in January 2015 > https://www.cnbc.com/2015/01/14/bitcoin-falls-below-200-making-some-investors-worry-about-downward-spiral.html

We can also say the same that every Christmas or December, Bitcoin will rally and push for a good price at the end of the year, but it didn't happened in 2018 right?

I know many don't want to hear that but just curious, it could very well happen again. Some say this is due to Chinese new year (people cashing out to buy again in March or April). I am not sure but I am curious if it happens again this year, we could go back to a price near $3000 per coin.

Just some thoughts, perhaps some of you are anticipating such trend again.

Any constructive opinion welcome.

Again, we can say that it well be the same case this January, it might or might not happen as well. The thing is that investors are really getting smarter as time passes by, If the price goes near $3000 then let it be. Let's just look at the price side and take the opportunity to buy when "there's blood in the street".

[millensharon8]

That would be a hard thing to tell for now, if you want to start comparing last year with this year, you have to realize these are basically two different scenarios entirely. However, it is the market, anything can still happen, but I usually prefer to use the trend for direction and not stick my mindset to what happened in the past. Sure, there is a likelihood we might go down lower, or consolidate for a while, but time will surely tell, and how we are able to use the trend to our advantage is what matters anyway, but if you want to consider all the Januaries from the beginning of time when bitcoin gets trade-able in the market, you will realize even your past assumption is wrong.

[ololajulo]

The trend is changing and it is getting difficult to predict price of bitcoin lately. I am also of the opinion of bitcoin dump by January but the price had been having a stable course. I dont know for how long the price float because it is still early part of the year, there are also no important news in the space for now.

[arpon11]

Hi folks,

It will probably not be a very popular thread but I'll go for it.

We noticed several times now that Bitcoin has a strange tendancy to go down in January, pretty much every year. It was definitely the case in 2018 (happy new year by the way).

Context is very different in 2019, but we had similar cases, for example a crash in January 2015 > https://www.cnbc.com/2015/01/14/bitcoin-falls-below-200-making-some-investors-worry-about-downward-spiral.html

I know many don't want to hear that but just curious, it could very well happen again. Some say this is due to Chinese new year (people cashing out to buy again in March or April). I am not sure but I am curious if it happens again this year, we could go back to a price near $3000 per coin.

Just some thoughts, perhaps some of you are anticipating such trend again.

Any constructive opinion welcome.

This year will be different mark my words.  Bitcoin is going to makes a significant move this year and I believe that those that buy bitcoin this January should expect significant profits by the end of the year or second quarter of next year.  Cryptocurrencies market look so bullish this year as many investors are trying to come into the market.  I seriously believe that those that think they have lose last year are going to smile this year if they can be holding.

[leowonderful]

Interesting observations. Patterns aren't the best indicator for future pricing as they can change at any moment without warning, but it is very well possible that prices may fall back down towards the middle or lower $3000s in January as it appears to me we've been pushing up against some pretty solid resistance for the past few days with not much more upwards movement, but anything can happen in the end.

[wavug]

Some people say this is the year when the bad projects going to die and people will start to invest only in good projects, the developers of which really intend to promote and support their product. In the end, the number of projects will decrease, but the total capitalization will increase due to a confidence in the development team and their work on the final product.

[Reid]

If we are using celebrations and holidays as reasoning for the price dump and pump then there could be a lot of it.

But there is Christmas where people also spends money and yet it grew to 20k at that time before going back down which they say is a correction.

You say Chinese New Year as if they are the one controlling the bitcoin currency. If that is so then investors will not risk it anymore. Why? Who wants to invest in a controlled system? Hell, I dont want to.

I still believe there is not much explanation to this kind of movements but just people buying and selling at the same time.

[eaglewhite80]

This is obviously a bear market, so regardless of any fundamental reasons we should be prepared for another test of $3K and maybe lower. In the mid term, I'm looking for this bull trap to end higher ($5K-$5,500 is my guess) but I have a feeling we'll get a taste of the $2,000s before the bottom is in.

There's something else to take into consideration. Something that may have an impact or not (I expect at least a short-term impact) : it's the launch of Bakkt in 24 January.
So this January may look way different from last year's, at least until Bakkt is launched. And yes, this could bring $5K+; and this could even make the $2k prediction not happen (although I wouldn't bet too much on that).

In fact, what the OP is not putting into consideration right now that the market has been pretty bearish since the beginning of the year and the likelihood of a consolidation or a slight rally is there than a more bearish condition, but not like the latter can still not happen. The past he used to judge was a January that started from the previous bull run and has hit an overbought stage waiting for a huge correction, using that sort of January to judge this one where we were in a downtrend throughout 2018, I really wonder how illogical his comparisons are. Moreover, we have had several Januaries with green in the past, so what are we saying?

[babarian]

Bitcoin prices in January, were not in line with the expectations of some people in 2018, at that time they predicted that the price of bitcoin would increase. but in reality? very much different from the current reality.

[farosa]

I can related it to the volatile price of crypto, although it is not about new year. We can always see a big change in price. On the other hand, technical analysis does not help us and we should focus on the coming SEC decision.

[Shiversnow]

This month of January there is no any changes in the price of bitcoin and I think even the month of January will end I guess there will still no changes in the price of bitcoin. In the first and second quarter of this year the price of bitcoin may maintain the price of $3000-$4000 but in the last quarter of this year we may see big changes on its price.

[oriontab]

I am of the opinion that we will not see much changes int the price of bitcoin this early in January,much of the price spike of deep will more likely be dependent on whether we get Bakkt approved/rejected/delayed. A lot of hype is already build around this

[el kaka22]

Patterns aren't the best indicator for future pricing as they can change at any moment without warning, but it is very well possible that prices may fall back down towards the middle or lower $3000s in January as it appears to me we've been pushing up against some pretty solid resistance for the past few days with not much more upwards movement, but anything can happen in the end.

OP sounds like he is worrying due to what happened in January 2015 (due to mtgox hacking news) but I am too looking for marking this year's low by mid dates of this January. Right now, bitcoin prices are trading below $3800 whereas 24hrs high was above $4000. I speculate next 5 to 10 days will be crucial as I am expecting bitcoin may hit the bottom of this year. Please note this is based on pattern observation based on dates and not an usual technical one.

Moreover, I believe bitcoin may not break last year's low of $3200 levels this time as we are witnessing continuous increase in trade volumes. We may expect prices to test $3500 levels but this should be a once-in-year buying opportunity. Before end of first quarter of this year, we may reach $6800 levels most probably.

[1Referee]

I am of the opinion that we will not see much changes int the price of bitcoin this early in January,much of the price spike of deep will more likely be dependent on whether we get Bakkt approved/rejected/delayed. A lot of hype is already build around this

I'm not sure if there is much left in the price that will move based on what happens with Bakkt in the forthcoming months. I'm more inclined to think that we're in for a longer term sideways movement, basically like what happened back in 2015 where we were hovering under $300 for months straight.

In the end, the price jumping under/above $4000 isn't all that bad if you take into consideration that we came from below $1000 back in 2017. It makes you have more respect for the current prices, because this looks more like healthy growth than anything above $10,000 which isn't possible to maintain at current stage. It's time for Bitcoin's fundamentals to improve, and that's happening as we speak.

Also keep in mind that the first quarter is usually a poor time frame for Bitcoin, so don't expect anything of significance.

[iqlimasyadiqa]

Interesting observations. Patterns aren't the best indicator for future pricing as they can change at any moment without warning, but it is very well possible that prices may fall back down towards the middle or lower $3000s in January as it appears to me we've been pushing up against some pretty solid resistance for the past few days with not much more upwards movement, but anything can happen in the end.

prices cannot be ascertained, even though there are clear patterns and benchmarks every year, but changes can happen so quickly. decreases and increases cannot be easily predicted, we can only follow the flow and try to get the best results. Bitcoin prices are an uncertain thing and therefore bitcoin is strongly influenced by clear demand factors.

[michellee]

Well, finally the price reaches $3597-$3599 according to bittrex and poloniex, the trend still going down and we don't know where the price wants to go. It could get down for more, or it will bounce up in anytime but we need to see what will happen in the next days and if it was necessary, we could purchase the bitcoin again because the price now is not too high to buy. I hope that the price will not go down too deep because this will affect the altcoin which we want to see the price increase again, but this time, many altcoins are going down too.

[coingecko]

The recent Bitcoin price (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin) erasure from $4000 down to $3600 came unexpectedly when the market was primarily positive and green.
This shows that we continue to be in the bear market, and we guess that most people are planning to exit quickly when they can as they forsee the bear market will mean price could continue to decline.

[gabmen]

Well, finally the price reaches $3597-$3599 according to bittrex and poloniex, the trend still going down and we don't know where the price wants to go. It could get down for more, or it will bounce up in anytime but we need to see what will happen in the next days and if it was necessary, we could purchase the bitcoin again because the price now is not too high to buy. I hope that the price will not go down too deep because this will affect the altcoin which we want to see the price increase again, but this time, many altcoins are going down too.

Well i think january's done for. There won't be any major movements to end this first month i think so i don't expect any reversals or any drastic drops. Just a continuation of a tiring bear season.

[rhomzkie26]

Hi folks,

It will probably not be a very popular thread but I'll go for it.

We noticed several times now that Bitcoin has a strange tendancy to go down in January, pretty much every year. It was definitely the case in 2018 (happy new year by the way).

Context is very different in 2019, but we had similar cases, for example a crash in January 2015 > https://www.cnbc.com/2015/01/14/bitcoin-falls-below-200-making-some-investors-worry-about-downward-spiral.html

I know many don't want to hear that but just curious, it could very well happen again. Some say this is due to Chinese new year (people cashing out to buy again in March or April). I am not sure but I am curious if it happens again this year, we could go back to a price near $3000 per coin.

Just some thoughts, perhaps some of you are anticipating such trend again.

Any constructive opinion welcome.

It will be difficult or its too early to tell what's gonna happen to its bitcoin price value. I remembered that last 2018 it was tackled about what's the price could be reach by bitcoin, and many guessed it mostly of course in good price but it never happen until 2018 ended up even up to the present still the same. So the better things we should do for now while waiting is be a bullish for a moment.

[davinchi]

Hi folks,

It will probably not be a very popular thread but I'll go for it.

We noticed several times now that Bitcoin has a strange tendancy to go down in January, pretty much every year. It was definitely the case in 2018 (happy new year by the way).

Context is very different in 2019, but we had similar cases, for example a crash in January 2015 > https://www.cnbc.com/2015/01/14/bitcoin-falls-below-200-making-some-investors-worry-about-downward-spiral.html

I know many don't want to hear that but just curious, it could very well happen again. Some say this is due to Chinese new year (people cashing out to buy again in March or April). I am not sure but I am curious if it happens again this year, we could go back to a price near $3000 per coin.

Just some thoughts, perhaps some of you are anticipating such trend again.

Any constructive opinion welcome.

Lol, but like seriously why do some people here tag everything to events? Just like you have said – that anything happening might be due to Chinese new year,. That’s how they also said that the price in December is due to Christmas.

Okay, would you say the same for stock markets that were performing badly in 2018? And why would anyone choose to invest with targets to sell during events like this? It’s not making any sense. Prices are down, yes, but that’s one thing we can’t really explain, but there are still some good reasons that has been stated out, and not things like this.