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Author Topic: Future BTC's price  (Read 613 times)
mitsos2017 (OP)
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January 09, 2019, 10:16:00 AM
 #1

In the year 2136, after the penultimate BTC halving, the block reward will be 0,00000002 BTC (2 Satoshi).
If BTC mining is still profitable, how much could be 1 BTC cost?
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January 09, 2019, 11:40:47 AM
Merited by mirakal (1), Pffrt (1)
 #2

In the year 2136, after the penultimate BTC halving, the block reward will be 0,00000002 BTC (2 Satoshi).
If BTC mining is still profitable, how much could be 1 BTC cost?

The miners don't receive only the block reward. They also receive the tx fee from all the transactions they've included into the block.
For example the block just mined had also 0.03988594BTC in fees. See: https://chain.so/block/BTC/557759

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bitmover
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January 09, 2019, 12:21:54 PM
 #3

In future miners will be rewarded almost exclusively with transaction fees.

The idea is that bitcoin is widely used with millions of transactions on each block, so those fees will be enough.

So theoretically, if Bitcoin really become adopted as we expect, the prices are very low now as the reward is 12.5 BTC for each block plus fees (every 10minutes). The next halving will reduce to 6.25, which will probably lead to a great price increase

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elda34b
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January 09, 2019, 01:02:45 PM
 #4

If BTC mining is still profitable, how much could be 1 BTC cost?

Nobody knows, and this question should not be in this board. Why is it important to know anyway? I'd say probably around $1 million or so. Don't believe me? That's fine, it does not matter anyway.
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January 09, 2019, 02:08:59 PM
 #5

Since the supply is limited and we are losing a lot BTC most often, I assume that it will at least $500k but, the matter is whether cryptocurrency is going to survive for this long time or not?
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January 09, 2019, 07:49:16 PM
 #6

The idea is that bitcoin is widely used with millions of transactions on each block, so those fees will be enough.

I don't see that happening. It's close to impossible to happen actually, especially if you look back at how we're working on ways to scale off-chain rather than on-chain.

In the long run, miners will also be scooping up the fees generated through Bitcoin's side chains that they merge mine, so if the activity on these side chains explodes due to all the garbage that runs on top of them, miners will automatically benefit from that. In other words, there is no real need to worry about miners or the security of the network.

And who knows, miners might want to provide liquidity to the Lightning Network as well to generate more fee income.
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January 09, 2019, 08:22:00 PM
 #7

In future miners will be rewarded almost exclusively with transaction fees.

The idea is that bitcoin is widely used with millions of transactions on each block, so those fees will be enough.

For that to happen, there would have to be a solution to the scalability issue for the network to accommodate that much transactions and keep it running at a productive pace.

It would be an audacious attempt, to make a prediction for over a hundred years from now. And would simply be just choosing figures.

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January 09, 2019, 09:46:53 PM
 #8

The idea is that bitcoin is widely used with millions of transactions on each block, so those fees will be enough.

I don't see that happening. It's close to impossible to happen actually, especially if you look back at how we're working on ways to scale off-chain rather than on-chain.

In the long run, miners will also be scooping up the fees generated through Bitcoin's side chains that they merge mine, so if the activity on these side chains explodes due to all the garbage that runs on top of them, miners will automatically benefit from that. In other words, there is no real need to worry about miners or the security of the network.

And who knows, miners might want to provide liquidity to the Lightning Network as well to generate more fee income.

For that to happen, there would have to be a solution to the scalability issue for the network to accommodate that much transactions and keep it running at a productive pace.


Scalability is not an issue now.

Scalability problem is just a marketing strategy, to make fools invest in shitcoins such as nano and bch. There is no issue with scalability now.

Quote

It would be an audacious attempt, to make a prediction for over a hundred years from now. And would simply be just choosing figures.


There is really no audacity . It's planned to happen, that is how bitcoin was designed.

From bitcoin white paper, by Satoshi


Quote from: Satoshi nakamoto
The incentive can also be funded with transaction fees. If the output value of a transaction is
less than its input value, the difference is a transaction fee that is added to the incentive value of
the block containing the transaction. Once a predetermined number of coins have entered
circulation, the incentive can transition entirely to transaction fees and be completely inflation
free

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crzy
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January 09, 2019, 11:07:17 PM
 #9

In the year 2136, after the penultimate BTC halving, the block reward will be 0,00000002 BTC (2 Satoshi).
If BTC mining is still profitable, how much could be 1 BTC cost?

The miners don't receive only the block reward. They also receive the tx fee from all the transactions they've included into the block.
For example the block just mined had also 0.03988594BTC in fees. See: https://chain.so/block/BTC/557759
It is still profitable of course but it will just depend on the cost you have. Yeah, the fees are also included and sometimes its high that why its still profitable. I think if the market recover and the demand increases, expect that miners will be in a good position also, its just a matter of time.
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January 09, 2019, 11:12:40 PM
 #10

In the year 2136, after the penultimate BTC halving, the block reward will be 0,00000002 BTC (2 Satoshi).
If BTC mining is still profitable, how much could be 1 BTC cost?
Depends on the demand, even if there’s a lot of miners if there is no demand then the price will not change or go even lower so its too risky for the miners to keep on mining, because cost might get high. The future price can only determine by the market, let’s see if we are going to a bull run this year or not.
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January 12, 2019, 02:26:01 PM
 #11

The future price of bitcoin is quite hard to determined because we are not sure if bitcoin will exist forever. But, there will be a time in the future that the price of bitcoin will become totally expensive and maybe all the people will use cryptocurrencies which may lead to increases of demand.
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January 12, 2019, 11:44:28 PM
 #12

The idea is that bitcoin is widely used with millions of transactions on each block, so those fees will be enough.

I don't see that happening. It's close to impossible to happen actually, especially if you look back at how we're working on ways to scale off-chain rather than on-chain.

Interacting with sidechains or Lightning requires on-chain transactions though. So we can't have exponential growth of throughput off-chain without it heavily affecting on-chain fee dynamics. Either the block size will be increased or fees will significantly rise. I think it'll be some from Column A and some from Column B.

In the long run, miners will also be scooping up the fees generated through Bitcoin's side chains that they merge mine, so if the activity on these side chains explodes due to all the garbage that runs on top of them, miners will automatically benefit from that. In other words, there is no real need to worry about miners or the security of the network.

Is that the consensus opinion? I don't really keep up with this stuff, but I thought there were a lot of security issues with merge mined sidechains.

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January 13, 2019, 12:26:48 AM
 #13

At that time i think at least 1mil.$ or possible more for bitcoin. And maybe at that time there will be less miners possible and they will get more from fees than from mining. Anyway i don't we can live so much, so maybe only child of your grandchildren will see what happen then.
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January 13, 2019, 12:41:12 PM
 #14

At that time i think at least 1mil.$ or possible more for bitcoin. And maybe at that time there will be less miners possible and they will get more from fees than from mining. Anyway i don't we can live so much, so maybe only child of your grandchildren will see what happen then.

We will see it in our lifetime....

I don't believe we will have to wait to 2140 to see the impact of zero block rewards.

The Reward per Block becomes irrelevant after 6th or 7th halving or in the Year 2032 or 2036 (Approx) and more irrelevant thereafter. In fact, the fees generated will be more than the block rewards.
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January 13, 2019, 01:58:06 PM
 #15

There are a lot of prediction on the future as experts say it will reach $100k within few years as it is dominating the market. I strongly believe we have a bright future ahead, Patience is the thing which is desperately needed here those who earned huge amounts were waiting for nearly 7-8 years and they deserved it on 2017 where BTC went over the moon.
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January 13, 2019, 06:08:46 PM
 #16

In future miners will be rewarded almost exclusively with transaction fees.

The idea is that bitcoin is widely used with millions of transactions on each block, so those fees will be enough.

So theoretically, if Bitcoin really become adopted as we expect, the prices are very low now as the reward is 12.5 BTC for each block plus fees (every 10minutes). The next halving will reduce to 6.25, which will probably lead to a great price increase

The price will definitely increase if, for example, the price for the next halving will double - say, from $ 4000 to $ 8000, how many times will this price double to the last halving? And what will the price of Bitcoin be then (of course theoretically). Do anyone want to count it?  Grin
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January 13, 2019, 06:37:19 PM
 #17

In the year 2136, after the penultimate BTC halving, the block reward will be 0,00000002 BTC (2 Satoshi).
If BTC mining is still profitable, how much could be 1 BTC cost?

Bitcoin will have to solve this problem way before 2136. I believe before 2140. Many coins solved it so bitcoin will be able to see solutions in practice by then.
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January 16, 2019, 03:27:03 PM
 #18

A pretty theoretical and trivial question at best. If our experts fail to get a read on the price for the next couple of months or so, how would one be able to distinguish the price a hundred years from now? Assuming that the world hasn't gone to shit due to political pettiness and the hunger for power and money, it should be big, just totally big since by then, the world must have accepted bitcoin and is being widely used anywhere in the world. I can't quite give an estimated figure, but should the global economy that we have right now is the same as 2136, my guess is it's somewhere in the $100k-$1M range.

You see, it's easy to pull of numbers out of thin air if you really don't know or have no clue of what's to happen a century away from you. Wink

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January 16, 2019, 03:56:14 PM
 #19

The future price of bitcoin is quite hard to determined because we are not sure if bitcoin will exist forever. But, there will be a time in the future that the price of bitcoin will become totally expensive and maybe all the people will use cryptocurrencies which may lead to increases of demand.

Exactly, it's very hard to predict the future of Bitcoin as every day there is a surprise as well as shock. Yes like you said it will become very expensive in few years also crypto will rule the entire world, crypto currency is spreading like social media for sure there might be a high demand.

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January 16, 2019, 05:24:49 PM
 #20

In future miners will be rewarded almost exclusively with transaction fees.

The idea is that bitcoin is widely used with millions of transactions on each block, so those fees will be enough.

So theoretically, if Bitcoin really become adopted as we expect, the prices are very low now as the reward is 12.5 BTC for each block plus fees (every 10minutes). The next halving will reduce to 6.25, which will probably lead to a great price increase


I don't know what exactly will happen when the mining reward gets so small that the vast majority of money is made from tx fees, but I can tell you for certain there will not be millions of transactions per block. Currently with segwit I think it can realistically handle around 4000 tx/block. Hopefully they will scale on-chain in the years to come but it's unlikely to ever be more than tens of thousands of transactions per block. Though if on-chain fees are like a dollar or something per transaction (in today's dollars) that should be plenty to incentivize miners to secure the chain.
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January 16, 2019, 06:56:44 PM
 #21

Since the supply is limited and we are losing a lot BTC most often, I assume that it will at least $500k but, the matter is whether cryptocurrency is going to survive for this long time or not?
why wouldn't it survive? Other form of money like fiat has survived this long.  I think cryptocurrencies and bitcoin is here to stay and I strongly believe that bitcoin will be  above the amount you have speculated. 
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January 18, 2019, 03:32:07 AM
 #22

Since the supply is limited and we are losing a lot BTC most often, I assume that it will at least $500k but, the matter is whether cryptocurrency is going to survive for this long time or not?
why wouldn't it survive? Other form of money like fiat has survived this long.  I think cryptocurrencies and bitcoin is here to stay and I strongly believe that bitcoin will be  above the amount you have speculated.  
It will survive, you should believe it's coming from me, kidding..
Everyone should invest based on what they believe, of course for bitcoin enthusiast, we believe that it will survive and it's the reason why
until now we are still holding it. Not only bitcoin as this market would be boring with altcoins pumping, it's a bigger market now and I want them all to survive.

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January 18, 2019, 03:05:13 PM
 #23

Since the supply is limited and we are losing a lot BTC most often, I assume that it will at least $500k but, the matter is whether cryptocurrency is going to survive for this long time or not?
why wouldn't it survive? Other form of money like fiat has survived this long.  I think cryptocurrencies and bitcoin is here to stay and I strongly believe that bitcoin will be  above the amount you have speculated. 

Because of some fatal flaw. If you believe that Bitcoin will succeed 100% you might get deeply disappointed. Million things can go wrong. If succeed of Bitcoin would be sure thing then everyone would just loan money and buy as much as they can. But in reality doing that could be just a suicide.
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January 18, 2019, 04:38:31 PM
 #24

In the year 2136, after the penultimate BTC halving, the block reward will be 0,00000002 BTC (2 Satoshi).
If BTC mining is still profitable, how much could be 1 BTC cost?
Survivin depends on one thing, will there be a better way in the future ? I mean we all think bitcoin is the new fiat and people will use it in the next generation and in 50 years there will be more places that accept bitcoin than dollar (dollar is accepted in USA and some certain places in other countries whereas bitcoin will be global everywhere) but if you think about it Bitcoin is seen like that because its a better version of the money we have right now.

Much better version. What if one day something better comes out, not a new cryptocurrency, not some new ICO was great coin, no. I am talking about a much better thing all together, something that is not cryptocurrency but much better ? In that case do you think dollar will go away ?

No, dollar will continue existing but bitcoin will go away and this new thing will be the new norm. That is the only possibility of bitcoin not surviving. Unlikely but possible.
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January 18, 2019, 09:15:50 PM
 #25

In future miners will be rewarded almost exclusively with transaction fees

Did anyone say that?

If not, then I will say. I think in the future there will be no more miners as we know this concept today, provided Bitcoin will still be sticking around, of course. Miners are a dead-end and if Bitcoin continues to develop as it does today, we will most certainly switch over to something else. I don't know what it will be but it will be better than POW and POS while still preserving the decentralized nature of Bitcoin, i.e. something which we all value and honor. And no, POW is not something which makes Bitcoin, it is its decentralized nature

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January 18, 2019, 09:16:08 PM
 #26

Everyone should invest based on what they believe, of course for bitcoin enthusiast, we believe that it will survive and it's the reason why
until now we are still holding it. Not only bitcoin as this market would be boring with altcoins pumping, it's a bigger market now and I want them all to survive.
Everyone should invest based on research and understanding of the fundamentals, and not based on what you believe Bitcoin is or will be. The believe you refer to is what made people lose tons of money with shitcoins and ICOs.

The very reason you consider having only Bitcoin in the market to be boring, and that you want altcoins to pump, proves that you haven't done any research, nor have basic understanding of why crypto exists in the first place.

Get rich quick mentality is what it comes down to, what else do you need here, right?  Roll Eyes

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January 19, 2019, 08:40:48 AM
 #27

Though bitcoin has not be performed the way we wish in 2018 and this year so far I strongly believe that recovery is under way. Many traders lose money because of give up too early and the market is going to give favorable prices to those that are patient with it. Remember that investments into cryptocurrencies is like investing into your future and in future bitcoin is going to give us more good price than any form of investment.
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January 19, 2019, 10:56:28 AM
 #28

In the year 2136, after the penultimate BTC halving, the block reward will be 0,00000002 BTC (2 Satoshi).
If BTC mining is still profitable, how much could be 1 BTC cost?
You are too futuristic. That time is still very long, you should predict only the next few years because you cannot ensure the movement of a Bitcoin price. Just one minute is unpredictable, especially having to predict the price of hundreds of years ahead. Let's think much more rationally and let's increase the use of Bitcoin to give a positive trend towards Bitcoin.
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January 19, 2019, 03:40:55 PM
 #29

The miners going away is just a myth and will not happen because it is by far the fastest way to get the transactions accepted, we would eventually have to find a way to both pay the miners a lot of money but also make sure we are not really paying to much to them individually on each transaction we make, closest we can get is slow transactions that gets bundled together and sent in one block.

Yeah, staking is possible but not for bitcoin, if something is as little volume as ethereum it is possible that you can use staking and even tough it can take less stress on the blockchain since there is not transactions as much as bitcoins blockchain they can do it, bitcoin can't afford to go to staking option since it will make it impossible to send money from place to another with that much volume in bitcoin.
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January 19, 2019, 04:43:28 PM
 #30

The miners going away is just a myth and will not happen because it is by far the fastest way to get the transactions accepted, we would eventually have to find a way to both pay the miners a lot of money but also make sure we are not really paying to much to them individually on each transaction we make, closest we can get is slow transactions that gets bundled together and sent in one block.

Yeah, staking is possible but not for bitcoin, if something is as little volume as ethereum it is possible that you can use staking and even tough it can take less stress on the blockchain since there is not transactions as much as bitcoins blockchain they can do it, bitcoin can't afford to go to staking option since it will make it impossible to send money from place to another with that much volume in bitcoin.

It is not about transaction costs at all

Though they certainly matter a lot, especially when you are forced to pay something like 50 dollars to have your transaction confirmed in a reasonable amount of time. That's an outrage if you ask me. So it is not as much about transaction costs as it is about keeping Bitcoin properly decentralized. If it actually aims to become anything other than a purely speculative asset with a rather narrow range of application, the current model of reaching network consensus should be replaced with something more scalable, reliable and accountable. I don't know what it could be but it should definitely be

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January 19, 2019, 05:30:57 PM
 #31

I think that currently people are too focused on Bitcoin price. Yes, price natters and at the moment it's not ideal but we have to accept it and get out of it the most. O think that in next period of time the price will more or less stay in current range and will not change much in either way. These are current conditions on the market and we can't influence it. I say don't expect too much from this year.

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January 19, 2019, 07:48:53 PM
 #32

Because of some fatal flaw. If you believe that Bitcoin will succeed 100% you might get deeply disappointed. Million things can go wrong. If succeed of Bitcoin would be sure thing then everyone would just loan money and buy as much as they can. But in reality doing that could be just a suicide.

Fatal flaw? I think it's safe to say that the more time goes by, the less risk of a 'fatal flaw' there is, especially with how the developers are pretty damn good in what they do. On top of that, Bitcoin's simplicity makes sure you don't have various levels of code to audit as is the case with Ethereum, which we have seen has yet again gone through severe difficulties that resulted in more delays.

By the time Bitcoin has succeeded as you put it, it has very likely been priced to reflect that. You buy that what offers the best possible potential, and the best time to enter is now.

The technology hasn't ever disappointed anyone, people's price predictions did and will continue to do.
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January 19, 2019, 11:16:50 PM
 #33

Because of some fatal flaw. If you believe that Bitcoin will succeed 100% you might get deeply disappointed. Million things can go wrong. If succeed of Bitcoin would be sure thing then everyone would just loan money and buy as much as they can. But in reality doing that could be just a suicide.

Fatal flaw? I think it's safe to say that the more time goes by, the less risk of a 'fatal flaw' there is, especially with how the developers are pretty damn good in what they do.

The risk is decreasing with time, but the risk is also non-zero and is pretty significant. The entire design is experimental and the protocol is a mere decade old. We're still finding really serious bugs in the reference implementation as of a few months ago. There's a reason Core is still in beta.

I have a lot of faith in Bitcoin and its developers, but people are right to be skeptical.

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January 21, 2019, 01:46:59 PM
 #34

Because of some fatal flaw. If you believe that Bitcoin will succeed 100% you might get deeply disappointed. Million things can go wrong. If succeed of Bitcoin would be sure thing then everyone would just loan money and buy as much as they can. But in reality doing that could be just a suicide.

Fatal flaw? I think it's safe to say that the more time goes by, the less risk of a 'fatal flaw' there is, especially with how the developers are pretty damn good in what they do.

The risk is decreasing with time, but the risk is also non-zero and is pretty significant. The entire design is experimental and the protocol is a mere decade old. We're still finding really serious bugs in the reference implementation as of a few months ago. There's a reason Core is still in beta.

I have a lot of faith in Bitcoin and its developers, but people are right to be skeptical.

Of course they have the right to. It their money anyways. And we all know there's not a hundred percent chance of success yet many of still believe because we're all aware of the risk that we take. I mean, if you expected success to be certain then it's your fault if you get rekt.

 
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January 21, 2019, 03:48:54 PM
 #35

Because of some fatal flaw. If you believe that Bitcoin will succeed 100% you might get deeply disappointed. Million things can go wrong. If succeed of Bitcoin would be sure thing then everyone would just loan money and buy as much as they can. But in reality doing that could be just a suicide.

Fatal flaw? I think it's safe to say that the more time goes by, the less risk of a 'fatal flaw' there is, especially with how the developers are pretty damn good in what they do.

The risk is decreasing with time, but the risk is also non-zero and is pretty significant. The entire design is experimental and the protocol is a mere decade old. We're still finding really serious bugs in the reference implementation as of a few months ago. There's a reason Core is still in beta

The real headache is that the risk is not actually decreasing with time

If you had carefully read theymos' report, you would have noticed that the bug was introduced in Bitcoin Core 0.14.0, i.e. not so long ago. But how long ago is actually irrelevant here as this irrefutably proves that there can be new bugs not just to be found but introduced as well (the point on which theymos also focuses our attention). As you can easily guess, the possibility of these bugs doesn't decrease over time. In fact, it can actually rise as Bitcoin becomes more complex and harder to understand (read, efficiently and effectively test it)

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January 21, 2019, 05:05:06 PM
 #36

In future miners will be rewarded almost exclusively with transaction fees.

The idea is that bitcoin is widely used with millions of transactions on each block, so those fees will be enough.

So theoretically, if Bitcoin really become adopted as we expect, the prices are very low now as the reward is 12.5 BTC for each block plus fees (every 10minutes). The next halving will reduce to 6.25, which will probably lead to a great price increase

I consider it a issue that security through mining relies on TX fees in the future. There should be some sort of on-going emission to fund miners in the future.
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January 21, 2019, 11:10:35 PM
 #37

I consider it a issue that security through mining relies on TX fees in the future. There should be some sort of on-going emission to fund miners in the future.

I think this is a fair point. It makes the future much less predictable. There's no guarantee that the long term economic design (a hard limit on supply) pans out as expected.

This is one of the reasons altcoins should exist: to test out different economic models. I think a predictably low but permanent inflation rate might be a better model in terms of security incentives. The main issue is predictable scarcity, not having a hard cap on supply.

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January 22, 2019, 12:16:51 AM
 #38

Since the supply is limited and we are losing a lot BTC most often, I assume that it will at least $500k but, the matter is whether cryptocurrency is going to survive for this long time or not?
why wouldn't it survive? Other form of money like fiat has survived this long.  I think cryptocurrencies and bitcoin is here to stay and I strongly believe that bitcoin will be  above the amount you have speculated. 
anything can happen in the future, nowadays many ico scams and exchanges are hacked. both of these if it continues to occur can kill bitcoin at any time, bitcoin can live and grow if there is no negative news.

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January 22, 2019, 01:25:44 AM
 #39

within 2 years under $500 and then the death spiral begins.
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January 22, 2019, 08:39:41 AM
 #40

within 2 years under $500 and then the death spiral begins.

You are very "optimistic", do you believe that the altcoins have more chances than Bitcoin? Or you believe in fiat money and the banking system?
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January 22, 2019, 11:59:07 AM
 #41

The future price of bitcoin is quite hard to determined because we are not sure if bitcoin will exist forever. But, there will be a time in the future that the price of bitcoin will become totally expensive and maybe all the people will use cryptocurrencies which may lead to increases of demand.

Exactly, it's very hard to predict the future of Bitcoin as every day there is a surprise as well as shock. Yes like you said it will become very expensive in few years also crypto will rule the entire world, crypto currency is spreading like social media for sure there might be a high demand.
Crypto is a future, we all recognize that crypto is something that must be utilized to the maximum extent possible.
The benefits that we get are certainly extraordinary, we can get a media to conduct financial transactions quickly, easily and also safely.
Crypto offers us access in the financial system in the future, by digitizing the financial system so that all financial systems in the world will be centralized.
But remember that this has the risk, we must be able to avoid negative impacts and maximize their positive impact.
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January 22, 2019, 12:58:05 PM
 #42

In 2136 there will be no dollar  Wink

Bitcoin is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're gonna get !!
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January 22, 2019, 01:55:23 PM
 #43

I consider it a issue that security through mining relies on TX fees in the future. There should be some sort of on-going emission to fund miners in the future.

I think this is a fair point. It makes the future much less predictable. There's no guarantee that the long term economic design (a hard limit on supply) pans out as expected

This question has been discussed before and with no definitive solution in sight

For example, I maintain that the concept of "sound money" is not a very good one, especially if we talk about a currency aspect of money (as opposed to its store of value one). But that's kinda obvious, provided you have a half-functioning brain and do not obsess with the idea of fiat being inherently evil. But I don't know how you are going to replicate in a cryptocurrency the capacity of fiat money to adjust its supply according to the needs of the economy (see the concept of endogenous money to better understand what I'm talking about)

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January 22, 2019, 02:42:34 PM
 #44

In 2136 there will be no dollar  Wink

we cannot predict the price of bitcoin and especially the price of coins in crypto market. But there are more research and usage of technology working towards identifying the value and predicting based on previous growth etc took place. But I don't have any value to predict the future of BTC will see by going forward.

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January 22, 2019, 02:54:49 PM
 #45

In the year 2136, after the penultimate BTC halving, the block reward will be 0,00000002 BTC (2 Satoshi).
If BTC mining is still profitable, how much could be 1 BTC cost?

I think that until the year 2136, the Bitcoin that we're using right now will no longer exist. There will be a better technology that will replace the payments we know today. Collectors will probably keep their Bitcoins, but they will have little value.

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January 22, 2019, 07:36:46 PM
 #46

I maintain that the concept of "sound money" is not a very good one, especially if we talk about a currency aspect of money (as opposed to its store of value one). But that's kinda obvious, provided you have a half-functioning brain and do not obsess with the idea of fiat being inherently evil.

"sound money" usually means either "not prone to sudden appreciation or depreciation" or "commodity-based money". why is that a bad concept? what prevents sound money from being useful as a currency?

paper money backed by gold or silver was used as currency ever since the 13th century, and quite effectively at that.

But I don't know how you are going to replicate in a cryptocurrency the capacity of fiat money to adjust its supply according to the needs of the economy (see the concept of endogenous money to better understand what I'm talking about)

why does the money supply need to be adjusted at all? you seem to assume keynesian economics is the optimal model but you don't explain why. satoshi designed bitcoin with a hard cap on supply because he obviously believed keynesian economics were the wrong approach to money.

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January 22, 2019, 08:01:22 PM
 #47

I maintain that the concept of "sound money" is not a very good one, especially if we talk about a currency aspect of money (as opposed to its store of value one). But that's kinda obvious, provided you have a half-functioning brain and do not obsess with the idea of fiat being inherently evil.

"sound money" usually means either "not prone to sudden appreciation or depreciation" or "commodity-based money". why is that a bad concept? what prevents sound money from being useful as a currency?

paper money backed by gold or silver was used as currency ever since the 13th century, and quite effectively at that

It is not a bad concept on its own

It is just the forms of money you mention (gold, silver, paper money backed by precious metals) are not suitable for a quickly expanding economy (or just quickly changing economy, for that matter). In such economy commodity-based money constantly changes its value which may give an undeserved advantage to holders (aka rentiers) while discouraging producers, i.e. those who actually create new wealth and make our lives better (and a whole host of other issues which a good textbook explains in great detail). It worked for a few millinea simply because the economies back then were not growing so fast to make it a real problem. Most of the time they were not growing at all, so it was not a problem either

But I don't know how you are going to replicate in a cryptocurrency the capacity of fiat money to adjust its supply according to the needs of the economy (see the concept of endogenous money to better understand what I'm talking about)

why does the money supply need to be adjusted at all?

Because there is an optimum amount of money given the size of an economy (after bootstrapping the money). When the economy contracts or expands, money supply should reflect these changes proportionately, otherwise it will create imbalances. The supply of fiat money mostly adjusts on its own via credit, i.e. it has a built-in mechanism for such an adjustment

No known cryptocurrency can replicate that

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January 23, 2019, 07:36:48 PM
 #48

I think that if Bitcoin will conyinue until 2136, then its cost will probably exceed several tens of millions of dollars, although of course such assumptions are pure fantasy, because we cannot know exactly what will happen even after 3-4 years, let alone already about what will happen in more than 100 years.
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January 24, 2019, 08:19:47 PM
 #49

In the year 2136, after the penultimate BTC halving, the block reward will be 0,00000002 BTC (2 Satoshi).
If BTC mining is still profitable, how much could be 1 BTC cost?
It is impossible to know the answer to that since you are talking about a period in which no one that is here today will be able to see, but it seems you have the mistaken idea that miners only get the block reward and that is not true, the miners also get the fees from each transaction they include in the blocks they mine and while that is not enough to sustain them now this could change once bitcoin gets adopted around the world.

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January 24, 2019, 11:39:32 PM
 #50

I think that if Bitcoin will conyinue until 2136, then its cost will probably exceed several tens of millions of dollars, although of course such assumptions are pure fantasy, because we cannot know exactly what will happen even after 3-4 years, let alone already about what will happen in more than 100 years.
It's going to be an amazing thing to know but no one knows exactly what the future holds for bitcoin. Problems will be solved unless it hasn't given attention to be solved.

In 2136 we assume bitcoin's still alive but we aren't anymore.



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January 25, 2019, 06:08:49 PM
 #51

In 2136, if Bitcoin is a universal payment for the whole world, it can be of high value. No one knows when we're there, we can be very surprised.
Maybe 1 btc will have the value of all the assets, but that's just my guess. Well, we will not live, so i will not deal with it.

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January 25, 2019, 08:35:52 PM
 #52

In the year 2136, after the penultimate BTC halving, the block reward will be 0,00000002 BTC (2 Satoshi).
If BTC mining is still profitable, how much could be 1 BTC cost?
I don't know what the price is going to be. But if people are still mining bitcoin in 2136, there is a reason why they would be doing that. The price might be extremely high that even a satoshi is a lot for the people. And thats year 2139, high chances are people have adopted this currency which will bring more value to the coins.

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January 26, 2019, 08:22:50 PM
 #53

As years pass the user community is getting widened. As the userbase increase to the decrease in supply, surely the price of bitcoin will peak high. Few users have mentioned about the lack of mining leading to the drop in value of bitcoin. Once the price moves forward more users will start mining. Also more and more adoption of bitcoin can be expected to happen in the future supporting the growth of bitcoin.
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