Brexit we're going to know the end of the story.

[LeGaulois]

 Next week (Tuesday?) we're going to finally know the end of the story.
In any case, if UK and EU do not reach an agreement before the end of the month, the UK will be forced to leave the European Union because of the Treaty(ies) of the European Union. (hard brexit).

What I wonder is

- Is The UK ready: not only economically (what will be the cost and most important who will pay!) but I feel like there is nothing prepared for. For example, what about the people living in Europe, would they become immigrants since they won't have any legal paper to reside in the country? What about the companies, several banks are moving their offices outside The UK. It looks like a mess already, even 2 ministers resigned

- What about Ireland/North and Scotland?, they should take this opportunity to ask for their independence

- GBP could lose its value easily with 15%-20% (ok I may exaggerating a bit with the % but it's the scenario I am betting for)

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[kolesozw]

I think they will prolong the vote for another day, another time.

Still, shorting GBP is a best option in all scenarios. I shorted a small amount just from FOMO.

About the Scotland Independence, I think they will not ask for, because they are getting way too much money as yearly support from England.

[exstasie]

Be careful with the GBP shorts. I know it's logical and there are big potential gains, but my experience is that these situations are really dangerous for retail traders. If an eleventh hour agreement is reached (achieving a soft Brexit) or some other breakthrough is made (even if just a postponement) then retail traders like us will be the last to know. Your shorts would be annihilated by short term volatility as bears run for the exits.

[aoluain]

There are a lot of unknowns because this has never been done before.
The two countries who will be most affected economically are the
Republic of Ireland (which is an independent country and not part of the U.K)
and the U.K (England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland).

Culturally they are very alike and share a lot of history, some of it good, some
of it bad. Economically they are strong trading partners.

Brexit asks more questions than solves perceived problems which led
to its acceptance. Questions like migration of citizens from europe to the
U.K and citizens from the U.K to europe. Transport is another important
issue to and from France to the U.K. Imports and exports in general
will be affected which could cause price increases and delays.

I also fear for the standard of food imports to the U.K because they
will not have to adhere to european standards.

All in all i think economically it will be a disaster.

[coinplus]

Companies always find a solution, they have insane amount of options to continue, they could just create one big head company and than smaller companies belonging to that, just like google did with alphabet. They can have one huge X company and have A England bank, B France bank, C Germany bank all reporting to big X company. That is the simplest, they could do many different ways.

People I am sure will have hard time at first but not like any British citizen ever had trouble living in Europe ever, they might have troubles for a while I am sure but in the next couple of years system will be back on track and people will continue applying for living in any country they want and not many countries will deny brits from living there.

Scotland already tried independence and they didn't want it, maybe this brexit will change that but I doubt it will have that much of a major change in the result, maybe closer but still same result. I don't see why GBP would lose value, eventually they were already using GBP anyway so I doubt it will have any affect like that but even if it does that means amazing for investors and I would get as much GBP as I can afford in that case.

[clrpod]

Next week (Tuesday?) we're going to finally know the end of the story.
In any case, if UK and EU do not reach an agreement before the end of the month, the UK will be forced to leave the European Union because of the Treaty(ies) of the European Union. (hard brexit).

What I wonder is

- Is The UK ready: not only economically (what will be the cost and most important who will pay!) but I feel like there is nothing prepared for. For example, what about the people living in Europe, would they become immigrants since they won't have any legal paper to reside in the country? What about the companies, several banks are moving their offices outside The UK. It looks like a mess already, even 2 ministers resigned

- What about Ireland/North and Scotland?, they should take this opportunity to ask for their independence

- GBP could lose its value easily with 15%-20% (ok I may exaggerating a bit with the % but it's the scenario I am betting for)

I suspect that the brexit deal will not pass and shortly after there will be a motion of no confidence followed by a new election. In that election we'll see parties split with many wanting to offer a new referendum and many not. While all this is going on there is no way that brexit will happen on the scheduled timeline. Brexit will likely be delayed for 1 or 2 years. There is no way the EU can force a hard brexit, the UK has the legal right to delay or cancel its decision at any point.

[drumamat]

- GBP could lose its value easily with 15%-20% (ok I may exaggerating a bit with the % but it's the scenario I am betting for)

It is difficult to predict the fall,but whatever it is, it will be.In the economy, in any case, there will be problems.For me, it remains a mystery and at the same time a question - is it true that Britain lives so badly?What are the citizens of this country dissatisfied with?Or is it a matter purely of politicians?

[Betwrong]

Brexit is a big mistake, and the UK will suffer from it economically and in other ways too. And it's not like "Brits don't get it", they do. Almost all more-educated people voted against Brexit, but the less-educated, the majority, being deceived by politicians who pursue their own interests, voted for leaving the EU. I wholeheartedly support the liberal democracy system overall, but this is one of those cases when it doesn't work the way it should.

[aoluain]

Brexit is a big mistake, and the UK will suffer from it economically and in other ways too. And it's not like "Brits don't get it", they do. Almost all more-educated people voted against Brexit, but the less-educated, the majority, being deceived by politicians who pursue their own interests, voted for leaving the EU. I wholeheartedly support the liberal democracy system overall, but this is one of those cases when it doesn't work the way it should.

Exactly, peoples fears were played upon. A lot of people were afraid of
too much immegration and the brexit vote happened around the same
time as the ISIS terrorism in France.

I think the less educated voted for brexit for the wrong reasons.

[Juggy777]

Next week (Tuesday?) we're going to finally know the end of the story.
In any case, if UK and EU do not reach an agreement before the end of the month, the UK will be forced to leave the European Union because of the Treaty(ies) of the European Union. (hard brexit).

What I wonder is

- Is The UK ready: not only economically (what will be the cost and most important who will pay!) but I feel like there is nothing prepared for. For example, what about the people living in Europe, would they become immigrants since they won't have any legal paper to reside in the country? What about the companies, several banks are moving their offices outside The UK. It looks like a mess already, even 2 ministers resigned

- What about Ireland/North and Scotland?, they should take this opportunity to ask for their independence

- GBP could lose its value easily with 15%-20% (ok I may exaggerating a bit with the % but it's the scenario I am betting for)

Hey this is a really sad scenario for the UK people, and all who’re currently residing there as students, workers. I believe UK shall suffer badly in terms of monetary losses, and there’re chances it shall lead to chaos out there. There’re also talks of an elections, and it seems UK Pm Deal is going to be rejected, things don’t look good for the UK Pm. I don’t think this is a good time for them to ask for independence, also I feel GBP would drop 5 - 10% not more but a good opportunity to short it.

Link: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46853689

[Febo]

  For example, what about the people living in Europe, would they become immigrants since they won't have any legal paper to reside in the country? What about the companies, several banks are moving their offices outside The UK.

EU will treat all UK residents with respect. It is not their fault UK us leaving EU.

London was banking center of EU. There was also European agency for banking that was moved I believe to Paris.  Many banks and other offices was in London simply because of this fact. Now that was moved is normal that they were also moved out.

[LeGaulois]

@coinplus

...I don't see why GBP would lose value...

The GBP/USD has lost 10% already and a lot of people are speculating on a decrease...

The problem is, it's easy to set up a subdivision and a bank account in another country, especially in Europe, but what matter (I think) are the regulations. The commercial agreements, or whatever is called, banks, and so on. I don't remember or wasn't old enough but in the old time before the EU creation countries weren't doing exchanges/trades as easily as today.

@exstasie
yeah correct.

@aoluain
Thanks for telling me because up to today, I thought Ireland was part of The UK and Northern Ireland an independent country  

@drumamat
Most if not all countries in the EU were better before. It was funny at the beginning but no more! A lot of people across the EU would be happy to get back their country because we're not governed by a country, we are governed by Europe.

[eminemcookie]

  For example, what about the people living in Europe, would they become immigrants since they won't have any legal paper to reside in the country? What about the companies, several banks are moving their offices outside The UK.

EU will treat all UK residents with respect. It is not their fault UK us leaving EU.

London was banking center of EU. There was also European agency for banking that was moved I believe to Paris.  Many banks and other offices was in London simply because of this fact. Now that was moved is normal that they were also moved out.

They may wish to treat all UK residents with respect but they have to be mindful of their own residents and their rights. Spain is one of the most interesting countries. There are something like 1 million expats from the UK living in Spain (that's the official number, I suspect it's much more). Are they going to send them all back to the UK and flatten their own economy in the process?

[stoat]

It will be a no-deal Brexit I hope. Fuck the pound and fuck the EU.

[Febo]

  For example, what about the people living in Europe, would they become immigrants since they won't have any legal paper to reside in the country? What about the companies, several banks are moving their offices outside The UK.

EU will treat all UK residents with respect. It is not their fault UK us leaving EU.

London was banking center of EU. There was also European agency for banking that was moved I believe to Paris.  Many banks and other offices was in London simply because of this fact. Now that was moved is normal that they were also moved out.

They may wish to treat all UK residents with respect but they have to be mindful of their own residents and their rights. Spain is one of the most interesting countries. There are something like 1 million expats from the UK living in Spain (that's the official number, I suspect it's much more). Are they going to send them all back to the UK and flatten their own economy in the process?

LOL trust me none UK citizen's will be sent nowhere. all of them will stay and live in EU as they did so far.

[Halmater]

Although EU is pushing hard, EU commisioners know that an economical or political crise won't smash only UK and they are going to be in a bad situation. I think, another referendum for Brexit is not so far away and British people may step back. In any situation, they have to bear the full consequences of what they have done.

[stompix]

So, it's Tuesday and the comedy is in full swing
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/jan/15/brexit-vote-parliament-latest-news-may-corbyn-gove-tells-tories-they-can-improve-outcome-if-mays-deal-passed-politics-live

Betfair:
UK - Brexit - UK to leave the EU by the 29/03/2019?
https://www.betfair.ro/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.153320849
Just 700k$ not impressive but the rates are no good either

But ...really...wtf?


My opinion is that this is a mess nobody deserves and the ones that started it have long abandoned the ship.
Somebody is desperate at breaking the EU, a united Europe is a nightmare for some it seems.

[BitHodler]

In any situation, they have to bear the full consequences of what they have done.

Too bad it's always someone else that ends up suffering while those responsible for this madness have very likely done everything to hedge any potential negative consequences to protect their wealth.

Bitcoin offers anyone to do the same in order to protect their wealth, or at least a part of it. If Bitcoin wasn't an option I would buy myself into gold, because that was the best option we had before Bitcoin was a thing.

Overall, it was doomed to fail anyway. I strongly believe that we haven't even seen the worst. All we have seen so far is only a glimpse of what people will be going through in the coming years.

[wahyu wida]

In any situation, they have to bear the full consequences of what they have done.

Too bad it's always someone else that ends up suffering while those responsible for this madness have very likely done everything to hedge any potential negative consequences to protect their wealth.

Bitcoin offers anyone to do the same in order to protect their wealth, or at least a part of it. If Bitcoin wasn't an option I would buy myself into gold, because that was the best option we had before Bitcoin was a thing.

Overall, it was doomed to fail anyway. I strongly believe that we haven't even seen the worst. All we have seen so far is only a glimpse of what people will be going through in the coming years.

indeed gold is a good choice to divert wealth, but I think for Brexit we have now been given the option of digital gold, namely bitcoin. if they know clearly about BTC and dare to take risks, surely the investment here will be better

[Commitments]

Brexit have big effect for economic situation at Europe, many country still do not agree with England and brexit system, it will have effect for economic global situation in the world where only some person could be working at england right now.

[exstasie]

My opinion is that this is a mess nobody deserves and the ones that started it have long abandoned the ship.
Somebody is desperate at breaking the EU, a united Europe is a nightmare for some it seems.

I have to admit I'm a tad ignorant on this subject. I've often heard the claim that economically strong countries like Germany are carrying the EU (paying more in than they're benefitting). Does that apply to the UK at all, given that it's one of the largest economies in the world? Could the EU breaking up be a good thing?

Although EU is pushing hard, EU commisioners know that an economical or political crise won't smash only UK and they are going to be in a bad situation.

Yeah, a hard Brexit won't be good for anyone in the short term.

[Lexurdania]

Brexit will leads economic crisis on british economy. As financial center in the world, from what i am read, many financial institution start to moving their office to others country and i think its bad for british economy.

[Crypdon]

I doubt it will happen. The brexit plan did get get the approval of the government so they need a new plan. Most likely an extension followed by a cancellation as it was a bad idea anyway

[LeGaulois]

My opinion is that this is a mess nobody deserves and the ones that started it have long abandoned the ship.
Somebody is desperate at breaking the EU, a united Europe is a nightmare for some it seems.

I have to admit I'm a tad ignorant on this subject. I've often heard the claim that economically strong countries like Germany are carrying the EU (paying more in than they're benefitting). Does that apply to the UK at all, given that it's one of the largest economies in the world? Could the EU breaking up be a good thing?

Although EU is pushing hard, EU commisioners know that an economical or political crise won't smash only UK and they are going to be in a bad situation.

Yeah, a hard Brexit won't be good for anyone in the short term.

Generally speaking, old countries don't benefit anymore, it's the opposite. The countries that benefit to be in Europe are the ones with a weak economy (or the poor to be more direct) since they get help from EU (not only financially)
Prices increased a lot since, with $5 you can not even buy a piece of fish, of course, the wages didn't follow. Companies started to move to other places. Some of them were offered free money to stay in a country, they accepted to stay but after receiving the money they're gone. I can give a lot of examples like this.
No country is singing the same song and the European laws are now more important than the local laws. Otherwise, the country pays a fine to Europe. Most countries are afraid of the EU laws so they obey like a puppy.

[stompix]

Generally speaking, old countries don't benefit anymore, it's the opposite. The countries that benefit to be in Europe are the ones with a weak economy (or the poor to be more direct) since they get help from EU (not only financially)
Prices increased a lot since, with $5 you can not even buy a piece of fish, of course, the wages didn't follow. Companies started to move to other places.

I somewhat disagree with a bit of it

Countries benefit from it, as they indeed receive more money from ...obviously the richer.

But for the individual, things in the poorest countries are not that bright. Prices have already gone up really bad, and I was amazed to experience the almost same prices in Bulgaria as in Slovakia or Poland, this for basic food while wages are seriously lagging behind.

And the things about companies...they are also moving between those as well with no rule whatsoever as I've seen companies relocating from Romania to Hungary or the Czech Republic or even stranger going back from Poland to the Netherlands.

The euro was probably the best thing that happened, I still have a lot of coins from the '90 and I remember the pain in the ass of changing currency every time, no more calculating each time how much that is in what currency and comparing prices.

No country is singing the same song and the European laws are now more important than the local laws. Otherwise, the country pays a fine to Europe. Most countries are afraid of the EU laws so they obey like a puppy.

This is good in my opinion, as it's damn weird to have some punishment in some country and just over the border that thing to be perfectly legal, I really dislike the US approach on this.

[Naida_BR]

The situation in Great Britain is extremely interesting and dangerous at the same time. A wrong decision may bring an economic crisis that may have a negative impact on the global economy. I think that the end of the story will be very bad and harsh for the UK citizens as I cannot predict a safe and friendly breakup with the European Union.

[LeGaulois]

...

Yeah me too I still have some old coins and banknotes. I have even bought some with BTC from a member here

Take a look at this picture http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GNFRWTtPVNA/TrbvBA4jpCI/AAAAAAAAAZo/AGDBtqikPvw/s1600/euros_produit_courant.jpg
I couldn't find one similar in English but the last column with the percentage is enough. That's the difference we are paying since we moved to EUR. (i.e. 1 salad +200%, milk+50%) I don't see what is good with it. I could be ok to pay a milk bottle even €10 (x10) IF they increase the wages/salaries x10 too

Another example I can give is about a farmer. He is forced to sell his milk let's say €0.30/L while it costs him €0.40/L Isn't it crazy?

The thing about companies moving back to the supposed rich EU countries is because they got an advantage regarding their taxes. Some countries are trying to attract companies to get them back by offering, for example, a 20% discount during 2 years on their taxes, or another type of incentive. Then what happened, once they raped the discount they again move from the country...

It was looking good at the beginning, no borders, same currency, etc but most, if not all, old countries aren't better economically, politically...
When Greece was in crisis, Europe helped the country with millions, but who's paying? The whole of Europe and its citizens. Do they have enough finance to help a country? No. Well the debt increase so.

[vixcious]

 it is currently a very tense situation among European Union countries. I think alliance countries will help and will rethink the UK will leave the European Union and certainly the UK will have more concessions.
We are in an economic downturn, so leaving the European Union will be a very wrong step for the United Kingdom. I think they will have other solutions instead of leaving the European Union. Let's wait and see!

[1Referee]

When Greece was in crisis, Europe helped the country with millions, but who's paying? The whole of Europe and its citizens. Do they have enough finance to help a country? No. Well the debt increase so.

The worst part is that politicians keep promising that every bit of debt will be paid back, but every well thinking being knows that it is never going to happen. It wouldn't even surprise me if they pull off a Cyprus haircut type of cheat, but in a more stressing way. It's the easiest way to pay for something without having to use their own money, nor have to print more and devalue the Euro even further.

If people thought they have seen the worst when Greece was on the edge of imploding, wait for what will happen when Italy does the same, there just isn't a way to compare both countries. Italy will drag the EU as a whole down with it, and the EU from there will drag the rest down with it. Chaos guaranteed.

[stompix]

...

Yeah me too I still have some old coins and banknotes. I have even bought some with BTC from a member here

Take a look at this picture http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GNFRWTtPVNA/TrbvBA4jpCI/AAAAAAAAAZo/AGDBtqikPvw/s1600/euros_produit_courant.jpg
I couldn't find one similar in English but the last column with the percentage is enough. That's the difference we are paying since we moved to EUR. (i.e. 1 salad +200%, milk+50%) I don't see what is good with it. I could be ok to pay a milk bottle even €10 (x10) IF they increase the wages/salaries x10 too

Prices of food have gone up everywhere, be it the EU or Norway or the US.
But let's look at the wages also:



It's not a 50% increase but it's still a 30%.
And not everything has gone up the same as food, and even if the prices of houses has gone up so has the average home ownership.

If you think a 200% increase is bad, I can still remember back in 2000 when you could buy a cola bottle with what is now 0.20 euros, and good luck buying anything else than 200ml right now with it.
Eastern Europe has been hit far harder by inflation when it comes to food and if we do the math with price/wage I don't even want to know how it looks for a romanian or bulgarian.

Lols...
Milk (regular), (1 liter)   1.10 €  vs (5.17 lei) 0.99 €

Yeah, it's not all good and blue and shiny but I still think we would be far worse without it.

[LeGaulois]

@1Referee

I know that the problem in Italy is like a scheduled bomb. They try over and over again to delay the inevitable. But when it will explode the problem will be much bigger and will not only impact Europe, it also has the potential to disrupt the global economy. Simply because Europe does not have enough money to help Italy like Greece. It was easy for Greece but for Italy, it is a completely different story.

I know that this day will come, I hope people here will then call me expert since they call everyone expert once you did a right prediction 

@stompix
Any website listing real estate for sale? I just wanna see the prices to buy an apartment or house.

[stompix]

@stompix
Any website listing real estate for sale? I just wanna see the prices to buy an apartment or house.

Do you mean from Romania? Here, no English unfortunately

Auch at the prices...

[LeGaulois]

Thanks

OMG at the prices
How the citizens can buy something with such prices. Near the same as in my country. I was expecting prices similar to Estonia

[yunzau]

yes it is a difficult decision for Brexit because of its influence on the per-capita economy. a decline in the number of consumers and the pound sterling.