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Author Topic: Brexit we're going to know the end of the story.  (Read 269 times)
LeGaulois
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January 11, 2019, 07:52:45 PM
 #1

 Next week (Tuesday?) we're going to finally know the end of the story.
In any case, if UK and EU do not reach an agreement before the end of the month, the UK will be forced to leave the European Union because of the Treaty(ies) of the European Union. (hard brexit).

What I wonder is

- Is The UK ready: not only economically (what will be the cost and most important who will pay!) but I feel like there is nothing prepared for. For example, what about the people living in Europe, would they become immigrants since they won't have any legal paper to reside in the country? What about the companies, several banks are moving their offices outside The UK. It looks like a mess already, even 2 ministers resigned

- What about Ireland/North and Scotland?, they should take this opportunity to ask for their independence

- GBP could lose its value easily with 15%-20% (ok I may exaggerating a bit with the % but it's the scenario I am betting for)



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January 11, 2019, 09:30:20 PM
 #2

I think they will prolong the vote for another day, another time.

Still, shorting GBP is a best option in all scenarios. I shorted a small amount just from FOMO.

About the Scotland Independence, I think they will not ask for, because they are getting way too much money as yearly support from England.

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exstasie
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January 11, 2019, 09:55:36 PM
 #3

Be careful with the GBP shorts. I know it's logical and there are big potential gains, but my experience is that these situations are really dangerous for retail traders. If an eleventh hour agreement is reached (achieving a soft Brexit) or some other breakthrough is made (even if just a postponement) then retail traders like us will be the last to know. Your shorts would be annihilated by short term volatility as bears run for the exits.

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January 11, 2019, 09:59:38 PM
 #4

There are a lot of unknowns because this has never been done before.
The two countries who will be most affected economically are the
Republic of Ireland (which is an independent country and not part of the U.K)
and the U.K (England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland).

Culturally they are very alike and share a lot of history, some of it good, some
of it bad. Economically they are strong trading partners.

Brexit asks more questions than solves perceived problems which led
to its acceptance. Questions like migration of citizens from europe to the
U.K and citizens from the U.K to europe. Transport is another important
issue to and from France to the U.K. Imports and exports in general
will be affected which could cause price increases and delays.

I also fear for the standard of food imports to the U.K because they
will not have to adhere to european standards.

All in all i think economically it will be a disaster.
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January 13, 2019, 03:59:20 AM
 #5

Companies always find a solution, they have insane amount of options to continue, they could just create one big head company and than smaller companies belonging to that, just like google did with alphabet. They can have one huge X company and have A England bank, B France bank, C Germany bank all reporting to big X company. That is the simplest, they could do many different ways.

People I am sure will have hard time at first but not like any British citizen ever had trouble living in Europe ever, they might have troubles for a while I am sure but in the next couple of years system will be back on track and people will continue applying for living in any country they want and not many countries will deny brits from living there.

Scotland already tried independence and they didn't want it, maybe this brexit will change that but I doubt it will have that much of a major change in the result, maybe closer but still same result. I don't see why GBP would lose value, eventually they were already using GBP anyway so I doubt it will have any affect like that but even if it does that means amazing for investors and I would get as much GBP as I can afford in that case.
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January 13, 2019, 11:27:58 AM
 #6

Next week (Tuesday?) we're going to finally know the end of the story.
In any case, if UK and EU do not reach an agreement before the end of the month, the UK will be forced to leave the European Union because of the Treaty(ies) of the European Union. (hard brexit).

What I wonder is

- Is The UK ready: not only economically (what will be the cost and most important who will pay!) but I feel like there is nothing prepared for. For example, what about the people living in Europe, would they become immigrants since they won't have any legal paper to reside in the country? What about the companies, several banks are moving their offices outside The UK. It looks like a mess already, even 2 ministers resigned

- What about Ireland/North and Scotland?, they should take this opportunity to ask for their independence

- GBP could lose its value easily with 15%-20% (ok I may exaggerating a bit with the % but it's the scenario I am betting for)




I suspect that the brexit deal will not pass and shortly after there will be a motion of no confidence followed by a new election. In that election we'll see parties split with many wanting to offer a new referendum and many not. While all this is going on there is no way that brexit will happen on the scheduled timeline. Brexit will likely be delayed for 1 or 2 years. There is no way the EU can force a hard brexit, the UK has the legal right to delay or cancel its decision at any point.

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January 13, 2019, 12:20:28 PM
 #7

- GBP could lose its value easily with 15%-20% (ok I may exaggerating a bit with the % but it's the scenario I am betting for)
It is difficult to predict the fall,but whatever it is, it will be.In the economy, in any case, there will be problems.For me, it remains a mystery and at the same time a question - is it true that Britain lives so badly?What are the citizens of this country dissatisfied with?Or is it a matter purely of politicians?

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January 13, 2019, 01:48:43 PM
 #8

Brexit is a big mistake, and the UK will suffer from it economically and in other ways too. And it's not like "Brits don't get it", they do. Almost all more-educated people voted against Brexit, but the less-educated, the majority, being deceived by politicians who pursue their own interests, voted for leaving the EU. I wholeheartedly support the liberal democracy system overall, but this is one of those cases when it doesn't work the way it should.

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January 13, 2019, 05:16:13 PM
 #9

Brexit is a big mistake, and the UK will suffer from it economically and in other ways too. And it's not like "Brits don't get it", they do. Almost all more-educated people voted against Brexit, but the less-educated, the majority, being deceived by politicians who pursue their own interests, voted for leaving the EU. I wholeheartedly support the liberal democracy system overall, but this is one of those cases when it doesn't work the way it should.

Exactly, peoples fears were played upon. A lot of people were afraid of
too much immegration and the brexit vote happened around the same
time as the ISIS terrorism in France.

I think the less educated voted for brexit for the wrong reasons.
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January 13, 2019, 05:45:49 PM
Last edit: January 13, 2019, 05:55:52 PM by Juggy777
Merited by LeGaulois (1)
 #10

Next week (Tuesday?) we're going to finally know the end of the story.
In any case, if UK and EU do not reach an agreement before the end of the month, the UK will be forced to leave the European Union because of the Treaty(ies) of the European Union. (hard brexit).

What I wonder is

- Is The UK ready: not only economically (what will be the cost and most important who will pay!) but I feel like there is nothing prepared for. For example, what about the people living in Europe, would they become immigrants since they won't have any legal paper to reside in the country? What about the companies, several banks are moving their offices outside The UK. It looks like a mess already, even 2 ministers resigned

- What about Ireland/North and Scotland?, they should take this opportunity to ask for their independence

- GBP could lose its value easily with 15%-20% (ok I may exaggerating a bit with the % but it's the scenario I am betting for)




Hey this is a really sad scenario for the UK people, and all who’re currently residing there as students, workers. I believe UK shall suffer badly in terms of monetary losses, and there’re chances it shall lead to chaos out there. There’re also talks of an elections, and it seems UK Pm Deal is going to be rejected, things don’t look good for the UK Pm. I don’t think this is a good time for them to ask for independence, also I feel GBP would drop 5 - 10% not more but a good opportunity to short it.

Link: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46853689

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January 13, 2019, 07:13:07 PM
 #11

  For example, what about the people living in Europe, would they become immigrants since they won't have any legal paper to reside in the country? What about the companies, several banks are moving their offices outside The UK.

EU will treat all UK residents with respect. It is not their fault UK us leaving EU.

London was banking center of EU. There was also European agency for banking that was moved I believe to Paris.  Many banks and other offices was in London simply because of this fact. Now that was moved is normal that they were also moved out.

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January 13, 2019, 08:44:06 PM
 #12

@coinplus
Quote
...I don't see why GBP would lose value...
The GBP/USD has lost 10% already and a lot of people are speculating on a decrease...

The problem is, it's easy to set up a subdivision and a bank account in another country, especially in Europe, but what matter (I think) are the regulations. The commercial agreements, or whatever is called, banks, and so on. I don't remember or wasn't old enough but in the old time before the EU creation countries weren't doing exchanges/trades as easily as today.

@exstasie
yeah correct.

@aoluain
Thanks for telling me because up to today, I thought Ireland was part of The UK and Northern Ireland an independent country  Cheesy

@drumamat
Most if not all countries in the EU were better before. It was funny at the beginning but no more! A lot of people across the EU would be happy to get back their country because we're not governed by a country, we are governed by Europe.


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January 13, 2019, 09:00:24 PM
 #13

  For example, what about the people living in Europe, would they become immigrants since they won't have any legal paper to reside in the country? What about the companies, several banks are moving their offices outside The UK.

EU will treat all UK residents with respect. It is not their fault UK us leaving EU.

London was banking center of EU. There was also European agency for banking that was moved I believe to Paris.  Many banks and other offices was in London simply because of this fact. Now that was moved is normal that they were also moved out.

They may wish to treat all UK residents with respect but they have to be mindful of their own residents and their rights. Spain is one of the most interesting countries. There are something like 1 million expats from the UK living in Spain (that's the official number, I suspect it's much more). Are they going to send them all back to the UK and flatten their own economy in the process?

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January 13, 2019, 10:15:27 PM
 #14

It will be a no-deal Brexit I hope. Fuck the pound and fuck the EU.

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January 14, 2019, 05:06:24 PM
 #15

  For example, what about the people living in Europe, would they become immigrants since they won't have any legal paper to reside in the country? What about the companies, several banks are moving their offices outside The UK.

EU will treat all UK residents with respect. It is not their fault UK us leaving EU.

London was banking center of EU. There was also European agency for banking that was moved I believe to Paris.  Many banks and other offices was in London simply because of this fact. Now that was moved is normal that they were also moved out.

They may wish to treat all UK residents with respect but they have to be mindful of their own residents and their rights. Spain is one of the most interesting countries. There are something like 1 million expats from the UK living in Spain (that's the official number, I suspect it's much more). Are they going to send them all back to the UK and flatten their own economy in the process?

LOL trust me none UK citizen's will be sent nowhere. all of them will stay and live in EU as they did so far.

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Halmater
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January 14, 2019, 08:03:06 PM
 #16

Although EU is pushing hard, EU commisioners know that an economical or political crise won't smash only UK and they are going to be in a bad situation. I think, another referendum for Brexit is not so far away and British people may step back. In any situation, they have to bear the full consequences of what they have done.
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January 15, 2019, 05:07:51 PM
Last edit: January 15, 2019, 05:53:31 PM by stompix
 #17

So, it's Tuesday and the comedy is in full swing
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/jan/15/brexit-vote-parliament-latest-news-may-corbyn-gove-tells-tories-they-can-improve-outcome-if-mays-deal-passed-politics-live

Betfair:
UK - Brexit - UK to leave the EU by the 29/03/2019?
https://www.betfair.ro/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.153320849
Just 700k$ not impressive but the rates are no good either

But ...really...wtf?


My opinion is that this is a mess nobody deserves and the ones that started it have long abandoned the ship.
Somebody is desperate at breaking the EU, a united Europe is a nightmare for some it seems.

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January 15, 2019, 08:54:13 PM
 #18

In any situation, they have to bear the full consequences of what they have done.
Too bad it's always someone else that ends up suffering while those responsible for this madness have very likely done everything to hedge any potential negative consequences to protect their wealth.

Bitcoin offers anyone to do the same in order to protect their wealth, or at least a part of it. If Bitcoin wasn't an option I would buy myself into gold, because that was the best option we had before Bitcoin was a thing.

Overall, it was doomed to fail anyway. I strongly believe that we haven't even seen the worst. All we have seen so far is only a glimpse of what people will be going through in the coming years.

BSV is not the real Bcash. Bcash is the real Bcash.
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January 16, 2019, 02:12:14 AM
 #19

In any situation, they have to bear the full consequences of what they have done.
Too bad it's always someone else that ends up suffering while those responsible for this madness have very likely done everything to hedge any potential negative consequences to protect their wealth.

Bitcoin offers anyone to do the same in order to protect their wealth, or at least a part of it. If Bitcoin wasn't an option I would buy myself into gold, because that was the best option we had before Bitcoin was a thing.

Overall, it was doomed to fail anyway. I strongly believe that we haven't even seen the worst. All we have seen so far is only a glimpse of what people will be going through in the coming years.
indeed gold is a good choice to divert wealth, but I think for Brexit we have now been given the option of digital gold, namely bitcoin. if they know clearly about BTC and dare to take risks, surely the investment here will be better

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January 16, 2019, 03:12:31 AM
 #20

Brexit have big effect for economic situation at Europe, many country still do not agree with England and brexit system, it will have effect for economic global situation in the world where only some person could be working at england right now.
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