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Author Topic: Bitcoin will turn......  (Read 2582 times)
YoYa
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November 06, 2011, 02:24:59 AM
 #1

Just a little insight given by one article:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/11/05/diaspora_social_network/

Paypal inexplicably cut payments to diaspora.....funny that. Needless to say, any unconfirmed corporate links are revealed by actions, as it cannot be any other way in an age where information control is but a propagandists dream of the past.

In this sense, the true value of bitcoin as a decentralized, uncontrolled monetary unit beyond the reach of "the establishment" is being realized. A lot has been said about the impact of speculators(myself included) hoarding, and this impact upon bitcoin as being to a point where it will mean the currency is of no meaning(or value) but to a few deflationary extremists.

But this is not being realized. In the wake of Paypal's discriminatory practices, bitcoin is the only independent go to. In the midst of the current revolution, where the powers that be try to control without implicating themselves but only fail in showing their bias, there is but one alternative beyond their control......the time is nearly upon us.

I dare not say what the value of bitcoin in dollars may be going forward, but I do say this:

Do not be surprised when it does not fall below the major lines of resistance and the values of which below are seen to be catastrophic for the currency itself. All of a sudden, the merits of a currency not controlled at the whim of a corporate plutocracy are becoming self evident, and more importantly these values are not being realized by the biased proponents in favor, but by the public and observational actions of those in opposition. Think about those last two lines.....be this true.....the coin is turning.
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November 06, 2011, 02:35:50 AM
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At some point I might agree with you, but we are still far away from that. The realization that the currency itself cannot succeed without a systematic plan for economic development outside the current financial paradigm has to manifest itself....

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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November 06, 2011, 06:17:26 AM
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At some point I might agree with you, but we are still far away from that. The realization that the currency itself cannot succeed without a systematic plan for economic development outside the current financial paradigm has to manifest itself....

Maybe not so far away...

Implementation of capital controls will rouse numerous wealthy individuals and organizations within in any nation that takes such actions. In a panicked flight to escape, alternative methods will be sought. If there is any way to get money out of a nation that has effectively closed its financial borders, Bitcoin will be one of the only means of transferring wealth around those barriers with no risk.

Carrying physical wealth (gold, jewels, etc) or representations of that wealth (cash, stock certificates, etc) is liable to confiscation; Bitcoin is not. Capital controls will be enacted in many countries during 2012. I'd say the continuation of Bitcoin's rise may be less than a year off.

On another note, integration of Bitcoin functionality in Diaspora could boost both.
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November 06, 2011, 09:07:31 AM
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Glad to hear you say that , in my opinion, you don't look good to bitcoin price, this is the first time.

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November 06, 2011, 01:52:13 PM
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At some point I might agree with you, but we are still far away from that. The realization that the currency itself cannot succeed without a systematic plan for economic development outside the current financial paradigm has to manifest itself....

Maybe not so far away...

Implementation of capital controls will rouse numerous wealthy individuals and organizations within in any nation that takes such actions. In a panicked flight to escape, alternative methods will be sought. If there is any way to get money out of a nation that has effectively closed its financial borders, Bitcoin will be one of the only means of transferring wealth around those barriers with no risk.

Carrying physical wealth (gold, jewels, etc) or representations of that wealth (cash, stock certificates, etc) is liable to confiscation; Bitcoin is not. Capital controls will be enacted in many countries during 2012. I'd say the continuation of Bitcoin's rise may be less than a year off.

On another note, integration of Bitcoin functionality in Diaspora could boost both.

in just the last few years FINCEN has tightened its grip on the amt of USD's that can be tx'd out of the USA w/o being reported.  i know this b/c of my GoldMoney acct.  i think the threshold now is $50K (it could be 10K) whereas before there either wasn't one or it was much higher.

also nowadays banks within the USA are required to report  any tx's over $10K which also is much lower than it used to be.
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November 06, 2011, 03:48:13 PM
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On another note, integration of Bitcoin functionality in Diaspora could boost both.

How? Leveraging attention economy?  Grin

I'm somewhat active on Diaspora, I'll share good proposals if someone has any.

https://localbitcoins.com/?ch=80k | BTC: 1LJvmd1iLi199eY7EVKtNQRW3LqZi8ZmmB
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November 06, 2011, 05:09:58 PM
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Seriously, it's all a matter of infrastructure.

Ever heard of The Cayman Islands, Jersey, Gibraltar, Liechtenstein?

The amount of money waiting for a system like Bitcoin to work is probably of a magnitude around 10^10 ~ 10^11 USD. A trade balance of 10 GUSD (low estimate) would amount to an average 476 USD traded per Bitcoin, which does not take future expectations, hoarding, lost coins, inflation and unfinished minting into account.

In a full-success scenario, 5k USD/BTC is possible and not unlikely. Why do you guys think I shrug when people keep flaming me with how I'm burning money if this fails? If I was a real investor, and not just a newcomer wannabe with play money, I'd be busy buying now.

If a certainly surviving Bitcoin is worth 300 USD, which is conservative, the market currently claims that Bitcoin will fail with over 99% probability! This is absurd!
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November 06, 2011, 08:42:16 PM
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Market prices do not so much have to do with probabilities as they do demand.  Few need what BTC can currently provide.  There are many on the sidelines waiting for signs that btc has become a legitimate medium to hold as a hedge against fiat inflation. 

To me, with a currency crash on the horizon, this communities heyday lay in its strength when confidence in government and bank issuance (through fractional reserve banking) crashes down.  The fully realized potential may come at a substantial cost, however, as any very widespread use of btc that may undermine fiat currencies may lead to its control as was gold following the great depression.
miscreanity
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November 06, 2011, 10:52:10 PM
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in just the last few years FINCEN has tightened its grip on the amt of USD's that can be tx'd out of the USA w/o being reported.  i know this b/c of my GoldMoney acct.  i think the threshold now is $50K (it could be 10K) whereas before there either wasn't one or it was much higher.

also nowadays banks within the USA are required to report  any tx's over $10K which also is much lower than it used to be.

Yes, the amount that can be carried on your person for international travel into and out of the US is $10k. The restrictions will be getting tighter, but of course this isn't the sort of information that makes the front page news.

How? Leveraging attention economy?  Grin

I'm somewhat active on Diaspora, I'll share good proposals if someone has any.

Kind of, lol Smiley

Awareness of alternatives is the first stage. Those aware of Bitcoin are likely to look for something that standardizes its use; if that's Diaspora, it will be the go-to just as Mt. Gox is the primary foreign exchange. From the Diaspora side, adding functionality for BTC payments could be extremely beneficial to developing nations (and anywhere else) in providing a relatively stable alternative to their own economic uncertainties that doesn't rely on government mismanagement of a regional money supply - the fact that Bitcoin is used as the underlying system would be a boon to that economic system.

Something as simple as adding a field for your Bitcoin address (similar to other services that assign a BTC address with a normal HTTP URL) and well-placed buttons similar to the "Pay with PayPal" ones (maybe "Buy with Bitcoin") could garner a lot of curiosity, certainly enough to get some people trying it out. Beyond that, an API-based connection with the major exchanges would allow for seamless means of obtaining Bitcoins through localized currencies.

I was intrigued by Diaspora when it first appeared, and have been keeping it in mind - there's a lot of potential, and it could genuinely rival Facebook (even though the two networks are distinct, there's a largely overlapping appeal). The additional functionality from the Bitcoin system affords even greater individual control and freedom; it may even force other networks to include Bitcoin.

The Bitcoinjs project has been making steady progress toward reducing reliance upon a locally-installed client. I'm working on an alternative to the current wallet method of storing keys, so losing a wallet won't necessarily be an issue anymore. Several other developments are coming along that should make it easier to integrate and use Bitcoin within a system such as Diaspora.
quartz92
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November 08, 2011, 02:00:46 AM
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Market prices do not so much have to do with probabilities as they do demand.  Few need what BTC can currently provide.  There are many on the sidelines waiting for signs that btc has become a legitimate medium to hold as a hedge against fiat inflation. 

To me, with a currency crash on the horizon, this communities heyday lay in its strength when confidence in government and bank issuance (through fractional reserve banking) crashes down.  The fully realized potential may come at a substantial cost, however, as any very widespread use of btc that may undermine fiat currencies may lead to its control as was gold following the great depression.
Indeed true, but market prices tend to move towards one big user's decision. It's just a crowd following one move which sets the momentum.
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November 08, 2011, 03:16:39 AM
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Have you noticed that we are almost exactly matching what happened 36 days ago play by play. If that cycle continues, the next big fall will occur in just over two weeks.

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November 08, 2011, 03:31:28 AM
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Have you noticed that we are almost exactly matching what happened 36 days ago play by play. If that cycle continues, the next big fall will occur in just over two weeks.

seem like that yes....  Lips sealed


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miscreanity
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November 08, 2011, 04:37:39 AM
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Have you noticed that we are almost exactly matching what happened 36 days ago play by play. If that cycle continues, the next big fall will occur in just over two weeks.

seem like that yes....  Lips sealed

The pattern is similar, but currency volume is not supportive of a major change in rate. Similar buy/sell volume magnitudes are resulting in slightly higher price levels. Without further external capital flow, stability will remain. A retest of the October low is more likely than a breach.



The ~$2.10 late October low is a lot further away from the current consolidation around $3.00 (~30%) than the $4.50 low was from the $5.00 September consolidation (~10%). Not that I'd be disappointed by an opportunity to grab cheap BTCs; the factors just show a slowly decreasing likelihood of that. There is also heavy global turmoil which is far more likely to result in capital flowing into Bitcoin rather than out, possibly in the very near future.
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November 08, 2011, 01:51:17 PM
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Have you noticed that we are almost exactly matching what happened 36 days ago play by play. If that cycle continues, the next big fall will occur in just over two weeks.

seem like that yes....  Lips sealed

The pattern is similar, but currency volume is not supportive of a major change in rate. Similar buy/sell volume magnitudes are resulting in slightly higher price levels. Without further external capital flow, stability will remain. A retest of the October low is more likely than a breach.



The ~$2.10 late October low is a lot further away from the current consolidation around $3.00 (~30%)(47%) than the $4.50 low was from the $5.00 September consolidation (~10%)(11%). Not that I'd be disappointed by an opportunity to grab cheap BTCs; the factors just show a slowly decreasing likelihood of that. There is also heavy global turmoil which is far more likely to result in capital flowing into Bitcoin rather than out, possibly in the very near future.
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November 09, 2011, 05:09:33 PM
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Have you noticed that we are almost exactly matching what happened 36 days ago play by play. If that cycle continues, the next big fall will occur in just over two weeks.

seem like that yes....  Lips sealed

The pattern is similar, but currency volume is not supportive of a major change in rate. Similar buy/sell volume magnitudes are resulting in slightly higher price levels. Without further external capital flow, stability will remain. A retest of the October low is more likely than a breach.



The ~$2.10 late October low is a lot further away from the current consolidation around $3.00 (~30%) than the $4.50 low was from the $5.00 September consolidation (~10%). Not that I'd be disappointed by an opportunity to grab cheap BTCs; the factors just show a slowly decreasing likelihood of that. There is also heavy global turmoil which is far more likely to result in capital flowing into Bitcoin rather than out, possibly in the very near future.

i heard the fundamental analysis about turmoils in the world economy and therefore maybe rises in bitcoin prices here quite often. i serious doubt that that has any effect. why? simple: bitcoins are highly risky (-> money is taking out of such investments in crsisi). there is a shortage of money in nearly every market (-> you don't put your last dollars into a high risk speculation, dropping in value since 5 months regularly). turmoils equals volatility equals good investment opportunities for traders. sure insecurity is a huge factor, but then again it "security" is really not bitcoins main attribute, although systemic risk is improving slowly with more people get to know the brand "bitcoin" and people like me finally deciding to put a penny into it.
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November 09, 2011, 05:17:43 PM
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i heard the fundamental analysis about turmoils in the world economy and therefore maybe rises in bitcoin prices here quite often. i serious doubt that that has any effect. why? simple: bitcoins are highly risky (-> money is taking out of such investments in crsisi). there is a shortage of money in nearly every market (-> you don't put your last dollars into a high risk speculation, dropping in value since 5 months regularly). turmoils equals volatility equals good investment opportunities for traders. sure insecurity is a huge factor, but then again it "security" is really not bitcoins main attribute, although systemic risk is improving slowly with more people get to know the brand "bitcoin" and people like me finally deciding to put a penny into it.
I agree with this 100%.  Bitcoin is not a store of value against the "destabilizing" fiat currencies of the world.  It is much more volatile and unstable than the fiat currencies it aims to abolish.  And what gewure said regarding high-risk investments is right on the money.  No one is going to look at Bitcoins right now, and think, "Hmmm, that's a nice stable place to keep my money while the world figures itself out."
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November 09, 2011, 07:23:38 PM
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Correct. The financial crash that is just in its baby phase is not helpful for bitcoins. Instead, many people who could be investing in bitcoins are also heavily invested in stocks and / or precious metals. And as all assets crash, including Silver and to some extend even Gold, this reduces available risky capital left for bitcoin.
Bitcoin need to show greater strength vs. other assets first to attract again more investment.

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November 09, 2011, 07:31:58 PM
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One of the advantages of Bitcoin is that even if it goes to 1 Million USD it will still be very affordable for people to buy. You can't say that about gold. Where would you store a small fraction of a dust speck of gold?

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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November 09, 2011, 07:54:43 PM
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One of the advantages of Bitcoin is that even if it goes to 1 Million USD it will still be very affordable for people to buy. You can't say that about gold. Where would you store a small fraction of a dust speck of gold?
Easy

Gold foil in polycarbonate casing. This happens to be the scenario for currency money proposed by some goldbugs.
I'll take that instead of paper any day.

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November 09, 2011, 08:02:46 PM
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One of the advantages of Bitcoin is that even if it goes to 1 Million USD it will still be very affordable for people to buy. You can't say that about gold. Where would you store a small fraction of a dust speck of gold?
Easy

Gold foil in polycarbonate casing. This happens to be the scenario for currency money proposed by some goldbugs.
I'll take that instead of paper any day.

I'm sure by then everyone will have an ipad with a built-in electron microscope. I'm not sure how else you will be able to assay the gold.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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