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Author Topic: Sports bets : how I used to bet a long time ago lol  (Read 238 times)
kenzawak
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January 22, 2019, 10:13:11 AM
Last edit: January 22, 2019, 07:04:46 PM by kenzawak
Merited by mirakal (5), Natalim (1)
 #1

So I don't bet on sports anymore.
I used to, 15 years ago or something. At the time, the betting sites were PaddyPower, Gamebookers, Betoto, Interwetten and I was registered on all of them or almost. Why ? To get the better odds and to have more opportunities of sure bets.
I would bet on every thing and I mean everything. There were sports I knew a lot about (basketball, soccer...) and others I knew zero about (cricket, bowls, darts...) .
My strategy wasn't based on logics but for the most part on stats and probabilities.
Exemple ? Betting on the number of goals in the Dutch soccer championships. It was a very offensive championship with lots of goals scored and dominant teams (az alkmaar, ajax, feyenoord, psv...). Anyway, what I did was pick a high scoring team and wait for it to have a few consecutive games with a total of goals scored under3. And then I'd bet on 3 over. I made a lot of money like this. Probabilities : same things with odd or even results... like at the roulette table.
Of course, I would lose at times but if I did, I would make the exact same bet the next time and make sure to get at least my money back.
Ex: I'd bet 2 on an over 3 and lose... next week I'd bet 3... and if I lost again I'd bet 6 the next time etc, etc...
Everything was recorded on my own sportsbook so I wouldn't lose track.

I would spend my entire day betting, following games and betting on them live. Live betting is the easiest and most secure way to make surebets. I'd pick games with the most chances to have odds reversed (volleyball is great for that... sets are always tight).

I also would bet on baseball, waiting for a strike or a hit, on darts (odd or even number)... stats and probabilities again.

And I was good at it, I would have lots of positive days...
But I was also very bad at it at the same time. Why ? Because I would bet way too much and even though I would win 90% of the time, the 10% of losses were done with a much higher amount. I was the kind of guy who would bet 1000 euros on a 1.01 and lose my bet on a live game (ever seen Federer up two sets to nil , 5-3 in the third set and end up losing ? Well I have and it hurt!).

I don't know how you guys bet today as I completely lost touch with all of this.
But if I may give some advice, whatever your strategy is, don't bet too much (I mean, just place a few easy bets here and there, don't bet 100 times a day), don't be too greedy and be patient. Fix yourself a limit for each bet (losing 1000 euros in one bet is not easy to fix... you'll have to take more risks to get them back and will probably lose even more).

Just thought I'd share. I recently found out about this part of the forum because of the signature campaigns I'm doing and it reminded me of that time.
I don't know if you guys will read this and care or not.
But I'm curious to read about how you guys bet today, what your strategies are and all...

Good luck to all of you !
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January 22, 2019, 12:37:38 PM
 #2

The only times I bet such big amounts on 1 game is when I find an arbitrage opportunity where I am '100%' sure I will have the bet correct. Cause even when the odds are very low. I also had a tennis game yesterday but it turned out in my favour. At the beginning of the game player a 5.2 and player b 1.21. Player A came up 2 nil in sets and and odds turned around Player B got a 6.45 for still winning the game. I decided to take a shot with 10mBTC and that guy ended up winning the game.
But before the match started I already made a bet of 30mBTC on player B at his 1.21 odd prematch. If I would have been unlucky I would have lost that 30mBTC.

Yesterday I was betting live on several tennis games, which player wins game X. I was on a winning streak and had about 50mBTC profits. The I came in a game with a guy that didn't had a single break against and he could win the game by holding his service game. So decided to put the 50mBTC on that player to win the game. Out of the blue he lost his service game with a love game and my 50mBTC profits vanished.

So there never is a certainty in gambling. That why I switched to arbitrage and value betting. Both betting strategies give some steady profits in the long run. Except the value betting strategy can have some swings but overall I manage to make about 20-25% profits monthly by using the valuebeutting strategy.

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January 22, 2019, 07:00:53 PM
 #3

As a gambler i use to place more of my betting on sports (soccer) were i handling lose to the game. I used to bet for a longtime that is, place my game over 1-3 months just to ensure that i made good profits out.

How does this happen: I make sure i select the best game in the season even if the games are weeks distance from each others. This has drastically help me to reduce my lost over time on sport betting. 

Never say no to them when they ask......
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January 22, 2019, 08:24:10 PM
Merited by kenzawak (1)
 #4

you were using martingale in sportsbetting which is really wrong in sportsbetting , I made a topic few months ago about how bad martingale is using real stats from a professional gambler who is actually good in betting . Feel free to check it : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5035907.msg46061753#msg46061753

the only way to make money in sportsbetting is value betting , meaning you need to keep searching in bookies for odds that you think is way too good for the possibility of it winning
if you are really good in analyzing and calling good prices then you will have success in the long run

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January 22, 2019, 09:30:36 PM
 #5

you were using martingale in sportsbetting which is really wrong in sportsbetting , I made a topic few months ago about how bad martingale is using real stats from a professional gambler who is actually good in betting . Feel free to check it : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5035907.msg46061753#msg46061753

the only way to make money in sportsbetting is value betting , meaning you need to keep searching in bookies for odds that you think is way too good for the possibility of it winning
if you are really good in analyzing and calling good prices then you will have success in the long run


 yes you are right we need to alert in all time forgetting the better result in our investment so sports betting definitely need the intelligence that you have in airport that you are being invested otherwise definitely you cannot make money.

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January 22, 2019, 09:49:00 PM
 #6

you were using martingale in sportsbetting which is really wrong in sportsbetting , I made a topic few months ago about how bad martingale is using real stats from a professional gambler who is actually good in betting . Feel free to check it : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5035907.msg46061753#msg46061753

the only way to make money in sportsbetting is value betting , meaning you need to keep searching in bookies for odds that you think is way too good for the possibility of it winning
if you are really good in analyzing and calling good prices then you will have success in the long run
Thank you for answering.
I read the thread you posted and agree... in parts.
But I do believe martingale can work in sports betting (better than in casino) if you chose the right bet. I gave the example of the Dutch soccer championships, how I would only bet on the most scoring teams and how I would be patient before placing my bet (wait at least a few games under 3 before placing an over 3).
That means strategy, analyzis of the sport are also involved (knowing how it works).
Like I said, my mistake was placing too many bets, not analyzing enough the safety of each of them. The most money I lost wasn't actually in this type of bets, it was mainly in the live bets I placed.

P.S : I apologize if I'm not using the right terms here... like I said, this was a long time ago.
Oh and I didn't know that so many threads were made about this. It wasn't my intention to restart the whole debate lol.
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January 22, 2019, 10:07:38 PM
 #7

I used to bet on Eurobet, it was the only available foreigner sportbook to play online, back then SNAI one of the famous Italian betting site was in their beginning and lagging features compared to Eurobet, I am nostalgic of that time as the games were easier to guess than now so back then I used to win more than I do now, I do not complain, I win regularly in sport betting but back then was another thing. Ah the nostalgia....
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January 22, 2019, 10:28:38 PM
 #8

you were using martingale in sportsbetting which is really wrong in sportsbetting , I made a topic few months ago about how bad martingale is using real stats from a professional gambler who is actually good in betting . Feel free to check it : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5035907.msg46061753#msg46061753

the only way to make money in sportsbetting is value betting , meaning you need to keep searching in bookies for odds that you think is way too good for the possibility of it winning
if you are really good in analyzing and calling good prices then you will have success in the long run
Thank you for answering.
I read the thread you posted and agree... in parts.
But I do believe martingale can work in sports betting (better than in casino) if you chose the right bet. I gave the example of the Dutch soccer championships, how I would only bet on the most scoring teams and how I would be patient before placing my bet (wait at least a few games under 3 before placing an over 3).
That means strategy, analyzis of the sport are also involved (knowing how it works).
Like I said, my mistake was placing too many bets, not analyzing enough the safety of each of them. The most money I lost wasn't actually in this type of bets, it was mainly in the live bets I placed.

P.S : I apologize if I'm not using the right terms here... like I said, this was a long time ago.
Oh and I didn't know that so many threads were made about this. It wasn't my intention to restart the whole debate lol.

as you are stating , you found a good system or a good pattern that seems to work which means if you keep betting on this market you should profit anyways without the need of doubling your stake each time you lose ( assuming the pattern or the system you found is actually profitable and +EV )

by doing martingale you may face a downswing that may last for over 20 bets and by doing so you are risking your whole bankroll
so what's the point in risking all of your bankroll when you can actually profit by betting steadily instead of raising the stake once you lose

swings happen a lot in gambling  no matter how good you are or how top quality the bets you make are there will be  a point where you will face a long losing streak

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January 22, 2019, 10:48:57 PM
Merited by freedomgo (1)
 #9

I think that's everyone's challenge, to be fix and constant and prevent themselves from being greedy. I think the part with the emotion can be compared with trading. It should be emotionless but the constant fear and anxiety that surrounds your decision, is it going to be positive or a negative result? If it's a win, you feel great, and you would feel invincible, but if it's negative, it's the end of the world type of feeling, especially if you thought it was a 100% bet that you would win.

I think everyone has been there (if you are a gambler) and losing touch isn't the problem, the fear of gambling again is, and the longer you're scared, the more you can affect your predictions. I think with your experience with gambling is excellent, and you could continue to gamble, I'm not advising you, but your experience says it all. You need more control over your emotions.

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January 23, 2019, 06:13:00 AM
Merited by freedomgo (1)
 #10

Everything you wrote is true and I can feel you are really a real gambler.
I'm into sports betting too that's why I can relate to what you wrote, I've been very greedy in the past as I was too expose in gambling, imagine
having your whole day with gambling and you still end up losing, that's me and it really hurts because you did your effort, risk your money but did not get anything, except for the lessons I get.

I realized that it's very important to control myself, researching is also important but I have to implement what I read into action.
Bankroll management is one of the key to success and because I can control myself now, then I guess my chance to win will grow, but I still have to find it out since my journey is sure to be long.
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January 23, 2019, 06:40:04 AM
 #11


as you are stating , you found a good system or a good pattern that seems to work which means if you keep betting on this market you should profit anyways without the need of doubling your stake each time you lose ( assuming the pattern or the system you found is actually profitable and +EV )

As you probably understood, I ended up losing a lot.
But I think, I'm not 100% sure though, that it's doable, you can win this way. But there are many many factors to take into consideration here : patience, not being greedy, betting on the right sport...
Like I said, I didn't post here to suggest you how to gamble... lol god no, I wouldn't dare doing that.
I just wanted to share my own experience and maybe see if you guys can relate. The topic was not about martingale or any other system... just maybe an introduction of myself here.

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January 23, 2019, 07:02:40 AM
 #12

Everything you wrote is true and I can feel you are really a real gambler.
I'm into sports betting too that's why I can relate to what you wrote, I've been very greedy in the past as I was too expose in gambling, imagine
having your whole day with gambling and you still end up losing, that's me and it really hurts because you did your effort, risk your money but did not get anything, except for the lessons I get.

I realized that it's very important to control myself, researching is also important but I have to implement what I read into action.
Bankroll management is one of the key to success and because I can control myself now, then I guess my chance to win will grow, but I still have to find it out since my journey is sure to be long.
Bankroll management, this is very important knowing when to bet and how much the allocations as you need to control not to be completely burned out, this stories are very common to those aggressive gamblers, the taste of wins make them more hungry each time they see the odds, thinking that the knowledge and information that they've gathered will bring them edge to win the match.

Being responsible gamblers most of the time need to suffer big mistakes, you will learn that enjoyment will terminate addictions after you completely overcome your emotions and you'll be able to have full control of your greediness.
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January 23, 2019, 08:13:01 AM
 #13

I am a relatively new gambler and a casual gambler. I have played very few times in an offline casino and have been always fascinated by the online casinos.

I know many persons who used to play backgammon with money in old times, by old times I mean in the 2000 as I am not that old.

Patience is key virtue together with bankroll management but this does not guarantee winning in the long term although many say it is doable.

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January 23, 2019, 10:07:18 AM
 #14

I have never tried but I heard of a local guy who bets on Football and his bets are always on a draw. He picks a team or several and bets they will play a draw every match. If his bet wins he starts the cycle all over again. If his bet losses he doubles the next bet on the same team.
I haven't given much though about this system, what do you guys think?

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January 23, 2019, 12:05:17 PM
 #15

Very interesting strategy. Still, I can't understand how you lost money as you said in the beginning that you made a profit. Was that a gross profit?
I am going to test your strategy with small bets maybe in La Liga championship, but I would like to combine 2 games with one bet. It has more risk but it can give me more profit. Is it feasible to do so? Maybe the teams that I would be will be of the same ranking.

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January 23, 2019, 12:34:14 PM
 #16

We all learn from our mistakes & let’s face it...most of us lose more than we win with gambljng.
As long as you don’t gamble with the rent money or groceries money or some shit then it’s all good fun.

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January 24, 2019, 04:12:50 AM
Merited by Natalim (1)
 #17

Mate, please bet again, you seem to be expert in gambling.
With your experience, I believe you can still find the success in gambling, you said you win most of the time but due to bad
bankroll management, you loss all your money. With that weakness, it's easy to adjust if you have the skills now to control yourself, keep betting never stop because gambling is very entertainment and more if winning is more on your side many time.
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January 24, 2019, 06:03:49 AM
Merited by Natalim (1)
 #18

Mate, please bet again, you seem to be expert in gambling.
With your experience, I believe you can still find the success in gambling, you said you win most of the time but due to bad
bankroll management, you loss all your money. With that weakness, it's easy to adjust if you have the skills now to control yourself, keep betting never stop because gambling is very entertainment and more if winning is more on your side many time.

Naaah it was ok at the time because I was young, single and had no responsibilities.
Now it's different, I have a wife and lots of things to deal with. I'm already "betting" on Bitcoin, that's enough lol.
But I gotta admit it's very tempting at times.
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January 24, 2019, 07:11:43 PM
 #19

I am going to test your strategy with small bets maybe in La Liga championship, but I would like to combine 2 games with one bet. It has more risk but it can give me more profit. Is it feasible to do so?

Never been a big fan of combos honestly.
I prefered to bet more on a safer bet.
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January 25, 2019, 11:30:26 AM
 #20

Mate, please bet again, you seem to be expert in gambling.
With your experience, I believe you can still find the success in gambling, you said you win most of the time but due to bad
bankroll management, you loss all your money. With that weakness, it's easy to adjust if you have the skills now to control yourself, keep betting never stop because gambling is very entertainment and more if winning is more on your side many time.

Naaah it was ok at the time because I was young, single and had no responsibilities.
Now it's different, I have a wife and lots of things to deal with. I'm already "betting" on Bitcoin, that's enough lol.
But I gotta admit it's very tempting at times.
I believe you will try some time, gambling is really tempting because I don't believe when you quit, that love of gambling is already gone.
With the increasing number of sports book now, I think it's worth a try, it's different now, it's more fun.
Sorry for convincing you, I just want you to play again mate.  Grin Cheesy Grin




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