Without getting into too much detail, the metriAAUC show – with a reasonable degree of confidence – that since 1991, each time a buy signal was triggered, a return of 25% was generated over the subsequent 70 weeks with 63% of these signals being successful.
Similarly, over the same period, we also note the GRA also generated buy signals for the HSI and MSCI Singapore indices. For the HSI, a return of 27.3% was generated over the subsequent 70 weeks with 63% of the signals being successful. For the MSCI Singapore Index, a return of 19.3% was generated over the subsequent 70 weeks with 57% of the signals being successful.
MSCI Singapore risk appetite signal
Hang Seng Index risk appetite signal
Indeed, more broadly, the entire emerging market (EM) complex is firing buy signals right now with the overall MSCI EM Index also expected to return 25.4% in the next 70-week period.
In my view, selling fatigue has set in among investors. Almost daily we read of asset managers active in accumulating deep value stocks across Asia, taking advantage of depressed pricing. I will wait for the “starting tweet” at the end of the month before I recommend we do the same.
Important Information:
This part of the material: (i) aims to provide macro-market commentary; (ii) does not contain any statements or advice in relation to any specific marketable security or financial product; and (iii) does not take into account your personal circumstances and should not be treated as any form of regulated financial advice, legal, tax or other regulated service.
