Thoughts on future of collectible physical cryptocurrency.

[Lucidhouse]

Casascius coins are way undervalued .

Considering something so silly was priced this high at the time of sale... 
“CryptoKitties, an Ethereum blockchain-based game that allows users to breed, trade, and sell digital cats, may have scored the most expensive in-app purchase to date with the sale of a CryptoKitty named Dragon for approximately $170,000, or the equivalent of 600 ETH in cryptocurrency. “

[poptok1]

Casascius coins are way undervalued .

Apples to potatoes man. No point of comparing those things, as they where designed for different people, with completely varying approach to collectibles and memorabilia. Hype versus long term nostalgia based value store. Money grabber versus craftsmanship that can only be appreciated by many after longer periods of time.
I think there is still place for physical coins. Especially those minted from precious metals. 

[Lucidhouse]

Casascius coins are way undervalued .

Apples to potatoes man. No point of comparing those things, as they where designed for different people, with completely varying approach to collectibles and memorabilia. Hype versus long term nostalgia based value store. Money grabber versus craftsmanship that can only be appreciated by many after longer periods of time.
I think there is still place for physical coins. Especially those minted from precious metals. 

Fair point and I agree with you. Though I'm still shocked at the amount of money swapped for something like a badly executed cat graphic.

[elianite]

I believe that even decades from now, Casascious coins will be the 'face' or popular image of bitcoin to a significant extent. It's just perfectly fitting; if bitcoin is a digital cash/gold, it makes perfect sense that its mascot should be a gold-colored coin with the Bitcoin symbol that connects the physical to the digital. Right now the first part of that applies, but I think eventually more people will appreciate the way the coin combines physical ownership & keys to digital assets. And just like bitcoins, they are finite (and decreasing!) in supply.
As such, I believe that as long as we have Bitcoin and even (especially?) if we didn't, Casascious coins will be sought after.

I think that dollar value premiums of coins will continue increasing, even for peeled coins. I believe peeled coins will become highly sought after, with loaded coins being out of reach of anyone but the most serious collectors.

I don't think we will see a 'bull market' in the coins in the way we have before, in that a 1btc loaded coin commonly goes for over 2btc. This is because most of the people currently holding these coins don't think of BTC in its current value but as ~$10,000-$100,000. In that line of thinking, maying five or six figures to speculate on a collectible is not easy to justify.

One of the questions is whether coins should be valued in BTC or USD. My view is that the digital value should always be given in BTC because the loaded amount is stable, and the 'premium' should be thought of in USD terms. Suppose we considered 1.5 BTC to be fair for a 1 BTC loaded coin (let's ignore the BCH etc). Surely if BTC fell to $10, nobody would be selling their coins at a $5 premium, whereas if it rose to $1,000,000, few would consider paying $500,000 extra for a 'normal' 2013 brass Casascius (rare versions might be an exception though). In the first scenario, we can easily imagine a value of $100 meaning 10 BTC premium whereas the second scenario might have a $100,000 premium meaning 0.1 BTC.

Overall, I think Casascious coins are excellent ways to hold BTC for the long term without being tempted to panic sell, daytrade, or invest it in a stupid way. Do I think you can 'make money' with them in the short term? probably not. in any case, you are holding a piece of history and you should continue doing so. This goes for all physical coins, as well as early crypto art and such.

[gentlemand]

I think indistinguishable fakes will be along at some point and then things are going to get a bit shaky.

All the stuff that's put up as fake at the moment is nowhere near a concerted attempt at a forgery, it's just a bit of a rip off that looks similar.

[elianite]

I think indistinguishable fakes will be along at some point and then things are going to get a bit shaky.

All the stuff that's put up as fake at the moment is nowhere near a concerted attempt at a forgery, it's just a bit of a rip off that looks similar.

You may be right. At that point, provenance will become increasingly important, just as it is in the traditional art world. I believe the market for these coins will be more akin to the art/antique market, as opposed to the traditional rare coin market. Coin collectors almost exclusively care about currency issued by governments, whereas others collect things like subway tokens and poker chips, and physical bitcoins belong to neither of those categories.

For all the coin brokering I've done, usually in larger quantities, I've issued certificates with the coins numbers and even photos, and all the info I have about provenance. I think certificates like these will become more commonplace. I am launching a service to issue these types of certificates digitally or physically.
I believe that eventually, the coins will be in so many hands that this forum will only see a small fraction of the trading that takes place.

[gentlemand]

I believe that eventually, the coins will be in so many hands that this forum will only see a small fraction of the trading that takes place.

One of the odd things is that throughout this megabull interest in Casascius coins seemed pretty much as flat as ever. You would've expected some uptick in arousal.

Perhaps they have to be forgotten to be rediscovered again but I expected more enthusiasm.

[krogothmanhattan]

I believe that eventually, the coins will be in so many hands that this forum will only see a small fraction of the trading that takes place.

One of the odd things is that throughout this megabull interest in Casascius coins seemed pretty much as flat as ever. You would've expected some uptick in arousal.

Perhaps they have to be forgotten to be rediscovered again but I expected more enthusiasm.

 You have to place lots of trust in the coinmaker in that the private keys created for the coins had not been stored in anyway. Many people might not have that trust. Especially knowing certain coinmakers swept away the btc or screwed up the private keys.

  But then again...time will tell. I had never heard of Mike...but still placed an order thru him. So yeah I took a chance back then. That risk paid off in that it opened up a door to an exciting and unique hobby that keeps me entertained till this day. Not to mention all the great people I got to meet in here and in person who share the same enthusiasm in physical collectables.

  

[elianite]

Because of the trust issue, I don't believe any new coin maker can achieve that level of common trust. Considering Mike started making his coins in 2011 when BTC was $1, the fact that not one coin has been compromised at $100, $1,000, or $20,000 successively lowers the probability that he kept the keys or that they could be compromised in any way. Another factor is time; 1 year, 5 years, 10 years, 25 years etc.. as time goes on, its exponentially less likely that someone will dig up the keys somehow, even if they were hypothetically stored on some laptop or printer that was sold to someone on craigslist (for the record, I have no reason to believe this is the case, Mike was very careful with data security). Couple that with the fact that there has never yet been a good fake, nor a coin with an illegible or otherwise corrupted private key.

[krogothmanhattan]

Because of the trust issue, I don't believe any new coin maker can achieve that level of common trust. Considering Mike started making his coins in 2011 when BTC was $1, the fact that not one coin has been compromised at $100, $1,000, or $20,000 successively lowers the probability that he kept the keys or that they could be compromised in any way. Another factor is time; 1 year, 5 years, 10 years, 25 years etc.. as time goes on, its exponentially less likely that someone will dig up the keys somehow, even if they were hypothetically stored on some laptop or printer that was sold to someone on craigslist (for the record, I have no reason to believe this is the case, Mike was very careful with data security). Couple that with the fact that there has never yet been a good fake, nor a coin with an illegible or otherwise corrupted private key.

Elias...I agree that with Casascius and Bitbills there should never be any worries on risking any loaded BTC items..especially on the bull run btc had last year and the 20k price we peaked at.
    But we have been collectors for years and have seen how solid certain coin makers are as well as the solid reputations they have gained thru time. For the newbie or novice entering our hobby it is different..especially when people have to pay thousands to buy 1BTC compared to early times when btc was much cheaper.

[gentlemand]

Elias...I agree that with Casascius and Bitbills there should never be any worries on risking any loaded BTC items..especially on the bull run btc had last year and the 20k price we peaked at.
    But we have been collectors for years and have seen how solid certain coin makers are as well as the solid reputations they have gained thru time. For the newbie or novice entering our hobby it is different..especially when people have to pay thousands to buy 1BTC compared to early times when btc was much cheaper.

New manufacturers should either offer self loading with your own keys or sell coins with nominal amounts on them.

No way in hell would I ever choose to trust a newly arrived nobody with one full BTC. Those days are now gone. Even plenty of the non nobodies raped their customers.

[krogothmanhattan]

Elias...I agree that with Casascius and Bitbills there should never be any worries on risking any loaded BTC items..especially on the bull run btc had last year and the 20k price we peaked at.
    But we have been collectors for years and have seen how solid certain coin makers are as well as the solid reputations they have gained thru time. For the newbie or novice entering our hobby it is different..especially when people have to pay thousands to buy 1BTC compared to early times when btc was much cheaper.

New manufacturers should either offer self loading with your own keys or sell coins with nominal amounts on them.

No way in hell would I ever choose to trust a newly arrived nobody with one full BTC. Those days are now gone. Even plenty of the non nobodies raped their customers.

Yes...I would only buy low denomination loaded coins..nothing near 1 BTC. 0.001btc is my comfort range. Unless the coinmaker is a person in my inner circle..then I can see 0.1BTC to be my max loaded purchase.

[OgNasty]

Elias...I agree that with Casascius and Bitbills there should never be any worries on risking any loaded BTC items..especially on the bull run btc had last year and the 20k price we peaked at.
    But we have been collectors for years and have seen how solid certain coin makers are as well as the solid reputations they have gained thru time. For the newbie or novice entering our hobby it is different..especially when people have to pay thousands to buy 1BTC compared to early times when btc was much cheaper.

New manufacturers should either offer self loading with your own keys or sell coins with nominal amounts on them.

No way in hell would I ever choose to trust a newly arrived nobody with one full BTC. Those days are now gone. Even plenty of the non nobodies raped their customers.

I know you were saying “new manufacturers” but one problem I have with the trustless setup and my own coins is that 1) I like to use vanity addresses as they are cool, & 2) I don’t trust paper for storing BTC long term so I engrave addresses on metal. While it is concerning that an individual could have access to so many loaded keys, I have yet to figure out a better way than to publish a complete and transparent list of addresses so that the community can observe any wrongdoing. While this isn’t the most proactive solution, it is one I wish more coin manufacturers followed with their mass produced products.

[wheelz1200]

Elias...I agree that with Casascius and Bitbills there should never be any worries on risking any loaded BTC items..especially on the bull run btc had last year and the 20k price we peaked at.
    But we have been collectors for years and have seen how solid certain coin makers are as well as the solid reputations they have gained thru time. For the newbie or novice entering our hobby it is different..especially when people have to pay thousands to buy 1BTC compared to early times when btc was much cheaper.

New manufacturers should either offer self loading with your own keys or sell coins with nominal amounts on them.

No way in hell would I ever choose to trust a newly arrived nobody with one full BTC. Those days are now gone. Even plenty of the non nobodies raped their customers.

I'm a fan of loaded coins, but I tend to agree, nominal amounts on the coin are preferable.  Although we dont know where usd valuation will be on the load digital value in 10 years time. 

[elianite]

I think that a highly trusted entity could create high-value loaded physical coins/bill/cards etc for mass consumption.
Would I trust a new startup with $10,000 or whatever in loaded value? Nah.
What about if The Canadian Mint created them, or a major bank issued them and said that they guaranteed (or even had insurance on) each loaded BTC? Yeah, I'd probably trust that.
Not to say such entities are lining up to create physical bitcoins.

[wheelz1200]

I think that a highly trusted entity could create high-value loaded physical coins/bill/cards etc for mass consumption.
Would I trust a new startup with $10,000 or whatever in loaded value? Nah.
What about if The Canadian Mint created them, or a major bank issued them and said that they guaranteed (or even had insurance on) each loaded BTC? Yeah, I'd probably trust that.
Not to say such entities are lining up to create physical bitcoins.

There is not enough "buyers" at this point in the cycle for them to even take that risk.  Older entities are less likely to jump in, I think as the next generation of people grow up in a digital world and start taking over these companies it will be less taboo for them to jump into our market.  It will be a slow trail to mainstream adoption for physical crypto coins but I do think it will come.  Nothing wrong with having a little fun along the way. 

[Lesbian Cow]

I think that a highly trusted entity could create high-value loaded physical coins/bill/cards etc for mass consumption.
Would I trust a new startup with $10,000 or whatever in loaded value? Nah.
What about if The Canadian Mint created them, or a major bank issued them and said that they guaranteed (or even had insurance on) each loaded BTC? Yeah, I'd probably trust that.
Not to say such entities are lining up to create physical bitcoins.

BitcoinSuisse AG was the closest to a proper financial institution to produce loaded bitcoin items and after producing a few beautiful loaded notes they determined there was not enough business to justify the expense/hassle/risks. 

[jackbauercsgo]

well thats friggin neat

[Lesbian Cow]

Wowzer.  Who do we know that is a client of theirs?

Time for Mantis Prime to open an account with BitcoinSuisse AG!