I at the end of the year thought: if in January BAKKT is postponed, then we will see another disastrous year
It was bound to be delayed with how the government shutdown is affecting their functioning. If ICE doesn't manage to get Bakkt approved within 6 months, then you can be sure that it won't ever be approved in its current state.
The price itself can also play a role in this with how the CFTC might consider this industry to be an unhealthy environment to operate in, especially if the price keeps going down in the coming months.
Let's be honest here, the price going down for such a long period of time isn't a sign of strength. If the 200WMA breaks, you should expect this bear cycle to be different from all the bear cycles we went through in previous years.