Maduro will fall. Opportunity to invest in Venezuela through Bitcoin?

[bitmover]

Maduro will fall. I just don't know if he is going to leave peacefully or not.

I am always trying to find non-traditional investment opportunities, and this could be one.

The country economy and its fiat currency are completely destroyed. So economic asset there is very very very cheap.  I talked to some people from there few time ago, and 10 USD is a huge amount of money

I was thinking if it was possible to buy some bolivares (their fiat) using bitcoin. Maybe sending some bitcoin to a venezuelan exchange and buying some bolivares there?

Do they still have a stock market? Is it possible to buy it through ETF? I think probably not...

In Brazil  we lived a similar situation 3 years ago (in 2016), when Dilma Roussef was impeached. She was allied to Maduro and supported him. When she left presidency our stock market index (Ibovespa chart) went from 30.000 to 60.000 in one year. BUt now it is worth 97.000. Those a huge gains even for emergent markets.

But our country was not as destroyed as Venezuela is now. Does anyone have any idea how to access that market?




EDit: just found this... https://frontera.net/news/latam/tracking-the-adrs-and-etfs-for-investing-in-venezuela/

Some adr more than 400% up already

[paxmao]

Looks like many people out there were in "the loop" on what was about to happen and bet on the success on the coup d´etat (if it is so). Anyway, once things get as bad as they have in Venezuela, it is the guy with the gun (the army) who decides what happens.

[mikeywith]

actually not a bad idea at all, it's always good to "buy when there is blood in the streets". it's just a matter of how quickly things could move towards your desired directions, for all we know there could be long lasting civil where war there and things might keep getting worse.

[Jet Cash]

Are you sure that Maduro will fail, after all he is the democratically elected president, and the other guy isn't. The US is trying another change of regime to gain control of minerals etc., and people still remember the results of their interference in Libya and other countries. With the new gold extraction agreement with China, and Russia's support for oil extraction, how will you decide on an investment that isn't going to be seized by the emerging government, whichever one it is?

[bitmover]

Are you sure that Maduro will fail, after all he is the democratically elected president, and the other guy isn't. The US is trying another change of regime to gain control of minerals etc., and people still remember the results of their interference in Libya and other countries. With the new gold extraction agreement with China, and Russia's support for oil extraction, how will you decide on an investment that isn't going to be seized by the emerging government, whichever one it is?

Maduro was elected in an election where only 40% of people voted. All his opposition was in jail or not allowed to participate in the election.

The other guy is legit, as he was democratic elected as a congressman, and he became president of the Congress.
Congress decided to remove Maduro due to corruption (about 20million USD) and didn't recognize his election.

If Congress cannot remove a president, he is not a president, but a dictator

However I am not discussing if Maduro is legit or not, but how to make money from his fall.

[Jet Cash]

I accept your point, but if you assume that he will fail, and you try to make money fro this, then you risk losing your investment.

I suspect that the best project would be to crowd fund an agricultural initiative. Whoever wins, the production of food will need to be increased.

[KingScorpio]

well it will not change much,

instead of a "maduro coin" or "petro"

you will get an "opposition coin" or "whatever"

with likely a women running it or a group of people (even more wasteful and dangerous)

so well nothing good will come out of this "revolution"

especially no change, the venezuelian popluation will simply be treated by others as money earning cattle.

[bitmover]

well it will not change much,

This makes absolutely no sense. It will change completely (at least everyone hope it will)

They live in the Caribbean, with Amazon forest and the biggest oil reserves in the world. And people are killing dogs in the street to eat. Do you think nothing will change?

I already mentioned Brazil's case, very similar, and gains were amazing.

Venezuelan ADR are already more than 400% up, as I mentioned in the OP.

Venezuela is now allied to Cuba, Bolivia, China , Russia, Angola...
If they make commercial partnerships with decent countries, implement basic economics and financial plans, it will grow.

The country is devasted because a crazy illiterate dictator is ruling the country. If you change that, and put someone who is slightly better, the economy will grow.

[paxmao]

... Whoever wins, the production of food will need to be increased.

Nah... the problem is not about food production, is about the money being robbed, corruption and inefficiency.

In this case none of the people that pretend to be "President" are democratically elected in a civilised and transparent way at least. It is clear that the new guy is the CIA candidate.

The result of the change is very predictable, if successful:

- Maduro´s supporters will be accused of corruptions and crimes against humanity and sent to prison. The unlucky ones that hold information valuable for the USA will be accused of supporting terrorism, extradited and sent to a CIA secret prison for interrogation and
most likely death. Egypt is my bet.

- The new guy will hold elections. Supported by the USA money and both threatening and buying the media will get massively elected.

- The new guy will open the country to Multinationals and, on the grounds of an ailing economy, will allow them to take over the oil reserves of the country. If that requires killing the natives and destroying the Amazonian rain forest, so be it.

- In a decade, all the relevant sectors of the economy will be dominated by the USA, particularly the oil reserves, which is, once more, what they are after.

- Simultaneously, the social model will become similar to other countries in the area: a rich 1%, 15% of courtesans (bankers, economists, engineers,...) that live supplying a service to the rich and the multinationals, 50% of struggling people, whose only concern is to appear rich when they are not and the remaining 30somthing % of people living in poverty with no better perspectives for their children, accused of being lazy and good for nothing while they die of a non-existing medical care system.

Meanwhile, all the newspapers will sing the song of the "economic miracle", yet in 12 to 15 years it will once more be shown as an speculative bubble based on "quantitative easing", the official name for booming the market artificially by giving credit even to the NIJA.

But all this, even well known, means nothing if you are worried about what you´ll eat tomorrow.

[Jet Cash]

Nah... the problem is not about food production, is about the money being robbed, corruption and inefficiency.

If US sanctions are removed, the Maduro can trade his way into a recovery. He has been rehousing the poor, and trying to provide food for them.  If the Trojan Horse jockey takes over, then the population won't benefit. All the money raised by selling oil will go to buying US arms to suppress the population.

You know the objectives when you see Richard Branson getting involved. He still owns a chunk of the Virgin airline, and their largest operating expense is aviation fuel. This is one of the products that can be created by refining the heavy oil of Venezuela. If he pays for a new refinery, then you can be sure that the benefits won't be given to the population. The galloping Guaido has stated that he will privatise all the assets - read, sell them off cheaply to the US.

You can also expect to see immune destroying vaccines, and destructive pharma drugs being sold to the country, and they will pretend that these are health aids, but they will really be designed to empty the "basket of deplorables" in the community.

[paxmao]

...

I can´t agree with some of your statements, but in general terms, yes, it is about the oil in first place and the many other resources.

The USA (or at least its elites) is once more showing itself as bully state and a force of destruction in Latin América.

Oh, by the way, I think I got the sequence wrong. Apparently the first thing is to block the accounts of Maduro supporters. That´s quite soft for the US normally does. (news is in Spanish here)

[Jet Cash]

It's rime to differentiate between the US and Washington. America is the country that has to increase public and private debt to support Washington warmongering, and to provide the soldiers to convert into dead bodies. Washington is the country that reaps the rewards from defence spending and taxation, and is refusing to allocate this for pensions and the maintenance of the American infrastructure.

[paxmao]

... Washington warmongering, and to provide the soldiers to convert into dead bodies....

I would lean more towards the New York guys.

[Jet Cash]

I would lean more towards the New York guys.

Wall Street is associated with the British Commonwealth tax havens, and those are controlled by the City of London. Washington is one public face of the ruling dynasties, The EU and Westminster are others.