[02/02/2019] Why Pantera Capital Thinks This Bitcoin Bear Market is Different

[gentlemand]

https://www.ccn.com/why-pantera-capital-says-bitcoin-bear-market-different

The most interesting takeaway from this is that Mr. Pantera believes most institutional types won't buy when it's in the doldrums and will only show up when there's an uptick.

That kind of goes against the image we're sold of them being visionary ice men. Of course in reality most are weepy, whiny coke addicts.

I agree with him when he says 2014/15 really felt like it was still possible it would dwindle to nothing. Regardless of how much of a grind is ahead I think that possibility has passed.

[Kakmakr]

The institutional investors are very cautious because most of those funds are from people's pension funds, so they do not have a huge portion invested in high risk investments like Crypto currencies. I also think a lot of things are currently being done behind the scene to simulate stability <A prolonged Bear market like this is not normal> 

As soon as institutional investors see a stable market, they will be willing to invest on a more regular basis. Things will change drastically when they enter this market with bags full of money. <Volatility wil go through the roof> 

[joniboini]

I agree with him when he says 2014/15 really felt like it was still possible it would dwindle to nothing. Regardless of how much of a grind is ahead I think that possibility has passed.

When he says the fundamental is better, I kind of agree as it seems more institutions like Fidelity are willing to open up a Bitcoin services. More countries have started to regulate ICOs too which is a good sign that this unregulated market has at least being recognized by the government.

Still, I wonder how long will this bear market last, it's been 411 days at least. On the other hand, it provides a good opportunity to buy some germ while it's still cheap.

[o_e_l_e_o]

As soon as institutional investors see a stable market, they will be willing to invest on a more regular basis.

Agreed. Knowing how ridiculous the last bull run was, when the next one is beginning I think many people won't be able to hold back.

Still, I wonder how long will this bear market last, it's been 411 days at least.

Can we still call this a bear market? Serious question. We've been pretty much static for the last month, and always at a price higher than the $3,200 low we hit back in December. I don't think this is a bear market as much as it is a sideways market. I understand your sentiment, though. But as long as development is ongoing and adoption is spreading, I honestly wouldn't mind another 411 days at these prices.

[coolcoinz]

That's why I believe we might not get that capitulation candle people are waiting for as a sign of the end. We could get a slow and steady decline followed by months of sideways and slow and steady uptrend. Most of those TA guys are saying we'll have a short spike to 2k and then immediate return back to 3k.

Still, I wonder how long will this bear market last, it's been 411 days at least.

Can we still call this a bear market? Serious question. We've been pretty much static for the last month, and always at a price higher than the $3,200 low we hit back in December. I don't think this is a bear market as much as it is a sideways market. I understand your sentiment, though. But as long as development is ongoing and adoption is spreading, I honestly wouldn't mind another 411 days at these prices.

Bear market is a TA term and it ends when there's an increase in value after a long period of downward pressure. Even if we were to continue sideways for another month we would still be in a bear market, just like we were at 6k (2 months of sideways trading).

[1Referee]

Can we still call this a bear market? Serious question. We've been pretty much static for the last month, and always at a price higher than the $3,200 low we hit back in December. I don't think this is a bear market as much as it is a sideways market. I understand your sentiment, though. But as long as development is ongoing and adoption is spreading, I honestly wouldn't mind another 411 days at these prices.

The thing here is that as long as the market is being controlled by algorithmic trading activity, we'll be seeing prices go lower and lower, because that's what bots are programmed to do. They respect the bearish trend extremely well. We need spontaneous buying to happen and give the market the boost that it needs, otherwise we can be up for a long ass bear market, or sideways moving market.

People think that we'll be pumping towards $20,000 again effortlessly, but that's not the case. Bots are securing profits as soon as they see an opportunity to do so, sell the market down, buy in, and repeat. In other words, it's going to be a slow journey.

As long as we haven't broken through previous lower highs, I'm not really expecting anything to change. Every previous support level has become a resistance level.

[hatshepsut93]

The institutional investors are very cautious because most of those funds are from people's pension funds, so they do not have a huge portion invested in high risk investments like Crypto currencies. I also think a lot of things are currently being done behind the scene to simulate stability <A prolonged Bear market like this is not normal> 

But no one tells them to put half of their money in Bitcoin, they can put 0.1% of their funds and have a pretty good chance for x10 returns in a few years. Sure, Bitcoin has a big risk, but the reward is even bigger, so the expected value is positive.

The most interesting takeaway from this is that Mr. Pantera believes most institutional types won't buy when it's in the doldrums and will only show up when there's an uptick.

Sounds like a smart strategy if you want to minimize the risk, as long as you invest in the beginning or in the middle of the bull run, and not at the end when you risk getting burned overnight.

[figmentofmyass]

Still, I wonder how long will this bear market last, it's been 411 days at least.

Can we still call this a bear market? Serious question. We've been pretty much static for the last month, and always at a price higher than the $3,200 low we hit back in December. I don't think this is a bear market as much as it is a sideways market.

price was literally just halved, and all we need is a few weeks of a sideways for you guys to call the bear market over? lol!

when the chart shows nothing but lower highs and lower lows and price is stuck below the long term MAs, it's a bear market. full stop. if the market can break the chain of lower highs, we can talk about a reversal.

there's no point calling it a "sideways market" IMO. that just sets up all sorts of false bullish hopes like we saw at $6k. it's a bear market until proven otherwise.

[o_e_l_e_o]

Bear market is a TA term and it ends when there's an increase in value after a long period of downward pressure. Even if we were to continue sideways for another month we would still be in a bear market, just like we were at 6k (2 months of sideways trading).

Thanks for the explanation - I'm not a trader, and I don't put much faith in TA so I don't pay much attention to it. Is the reverse also true - it's a bull market until there is a decrease in value after a long period of upward pressure? Therefore, there is no such thing as a sideways market?

But no one tells them to put half of their money in Bitcoin, they can put 0.1% of their funds and have a pretty good chance for x10 returns in a few years. Sure, Bitcoin has a big risk, but the reward is even bigger, so the expected value is positive.

There is no point to that, though. Think of all the paperwork and regulations they would have to go through to invest in cryptocurrency at all, all the hoops they would have to jump through. It's simply not worth it for such tiny amounts. Until they are willing to risk a good few percents of their funds, they just won't bother.

[BitHodler]

When he says the fundamental is better, I kind of agree as it seems more institutions like Fidelity are willing to open up a Bitcoin services.

Fundamentals don't matter right now. It could very well be that we're going much lower than current levels, and that while Bitcoin itself hasn't ever looked this good. Traders just pay attention to the here and now.

And who knows, even if we do have bottomed out, the next bull run could very easily run out of fuel well before it reaches the $20k mark. What happened in 2017 wasn't just a regular bubble, but one that was driven by ICOs.

People needed Bitcoin or Ethereum to buy their ICOs, and that demand is completely gone right now, and I'm not sure if we'll ever get it back with how much stricter regulations around ICOs have become.

[gentlemand]

I'm not sure if we'll ever get it back with how much stricter regulations around ICOs have become.

And how many serious operators were involved in ICOs? Virtually none. They were largely run by assholes taking stock photos and making up bios.

Anyone with any sense, and therefore actual skill and money, knew perfectly well they were going to get nailed to the wall.

Though I think ICOs are a fundamentally stupid and worthless idea, stricter regulation opens up the space for the real professionals and gets rid of the thieving cocksuckers.

[bbc.reporter]

https://www.ccn.com/why-pantera-capital-says-bitcoin-bear-market-different

The most interesting takeaway from this is that Mr. Pantera believes most institutional types won't buy when it's in the doldrums and will only show up when there's an uptick.

The Dow Jones, the Nasdaq and the other major stock markets around the world are presently bullish. I reckon the institional types would have no reason to pull their money out to hold a cryptocoin they do not understand hehehe. What they might be doing is preparing for a gold pump if they exit stocks.

The ETF might be bitcoin's only chance of getting the next flow, in form of multibillion investments, from the institutional types.

[figmentofmyass]

Though I think ICOs are a fundamentally stupid and worthless idea, stricter regulation opens up the space for the real professionals and gets rid of the thieving cocksuckers.

in their earliest scam-laden form, they're mostly stupid and worthless. but i disagree that they are fundamentally so. tokenized securities allow fundraising across borders. that means better access to capital for startups and better access to markets for investors, especially small retail investors. token markets can instantly tap into crypto market liquidity, which is a big plus. in the legacy markets, early startups depend on private angel investors and the pink sheets.