The Jet Cash coffee lounge thread.

[Jet Cash]

Back in the early 60s, MIT and IBM ran a simulation using about 2 million Blackjack hands, and they worked out an optimal place. Rhis was basically a set of rules where you bet on the probability of the dealer busting. I got thrown out of Charlie Chester's casino in Piccadilly for using this method. Shortly afterwards, they changed the rules of casino Blackjack, and it was no longer possible to take advantage of this edge. It gave you about 1.5%, and slightly more if you counted cards.

With regards to Bitcoin, I think I'm going to watch the one hour EMA 12 and 26, and just trade the crosses, and I'll forget about emotion. It's just crossed bearish, but I'm already in fiat, so I can't take advantage of it.

[jackg]

It's fiddling with bet sizes instead of card counting...

There aren't many sites that will offer thst and I bet they'll switch out the deck every now and then...


Try a low ish weekly ema too like the 15 or something. A lot of the TA guys think well go down to 21 so the 20 ema should be crossed... But they do have "moving" in the name.

[Jet Cash]

I've gone off 1 hour ema. I've still got a buy at £7.885, and I might just leave that there to try to catch a liquidation wick. I'll probably move another couple of hundred into my account, as I expect a bit of volatility over the next few days.

I'm still pleased that I've been playing at trading. It has taught me a lot about the Bitcoin market, and its potential. I'm watching Krown at the moment, and he is having another bad hair day. I wish he would clean up his language, but he does seem to understand TA.

[sunday]
I'm also learning that no trading can be a good trade when you aren't sure of the direction that the price will take.

[jackg]

I managed to lose £1000 yesterday while trading on bitmex.

The first £500 went because I managed to cancel a trade that had gone through  (somehow) and the second went because it kept saying the queue was full and then executed all of the trades regardless, I was at £100 profit and then it couldn't close the order and shot up so I'm now speculating their server is buggy and slow because they want you to make a loss and them to make a gain...

My trading account will be limited to £20 on there until I can work out why it's so buggy (if it's something I'm doing). Stop losses finally work though on there.

I've gone off 1 hour ema. I've still got a buy at £7.885, and I might just leave that there to try to catch a liquidation wick. I'll probably move another couple of hundred into my account, as I expect a bit of volatility over the next few days.

I normally don't go lower than the daily. I think the 4 hour can sometimes be useful for some TA but most people use it in conjunction with the daily ema to try to work stuff out...

[Jet Cash]

Good morning to all you lucky Jet Setters. It's the weekend, and time to reflect on Bitcoin and it's potential activity when the Monday traders  start playing on the exchanges. I thought that I would give you some relaxing Jazz music as a background to help you to work through the stats and reports.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=io85zAxiA0E

I'm going to spend some time on the Hayling Island beach, so let me know how you get on, and what you think of my current buy order which is under £8,000 ( $10,000 ).

[jackg]

I think 8000 is a bit risky. The last fall was from 10200 to 9020.

I'd say we look like we could be forming a bear flag and if that's the case, my target would be around 8260 (the second pole doesn't go down as far as the first in this market)...

I've just sold with a hope to buy back at 8300.


Nice jazz music, is this your new background noise? I do quite like the jazz genre (it's a bit like classical but more upbeat and thus with more texture/timbre).

[Jet Cash]

I'm going to leave the buy order, just in case there is a flash crash. If it looks as if the price will never get there, then I can always cancel the order, and I haven't lost anything. I've decided that I need to clear at least one garage worth of scrap and rubbish, and I'll put the proceeds into my Coinbase Sterling wallet, and I can play with that. I'm still expecting a massive rise in the Bitcoin price later this year.

I want to do an analysis of the English economy as well. I'm seeing an increase in people living in cars, and some of the cars are only two or three years old. That must be really uncomfortable, and not something I would choose to do. A large converted van is fun, but a standard hatchback car must be really uncomfortable,

[jackg]

All of my possessions won't fit in a car...
I mean it'd probably take two lorries to hold everything I have at least but...


I'm thinking of trying to experiment with selling casascius coins at auction in the UK. I feel like the greater fools theory might work there and they are quite rare...

I think my blackjack strategy works by determining the likelihood of the dealer going bust along with a small amount of martingale (it gives you the first card of the dealer, if its a 5 or 6 they're quite likely to go bust after being tempted to hit on 15... But its a bit more advanced than that so I can't explain it so well...

[Jet Cash]

This is the guy who did the initial research into the system that I used. He wrote the book " Beat the Dealer"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_O._Thorp

[actmyname]

I think my blackjack strategy works by determining the likelihood of the dealer going bust along with a small amount of martingale (it gives you the first card of the dealer, if its a 5 or 6 they're quite likely to go bust after being tempted to hit on 15... But its a bit more advanced than that so I can't explain it so well...

Keep it simple:
More low numbers = bet higher.
More high numbers = bet lower.
Never take insurance.
Never hit 12+ on dealer 3-6.
Always hit/double otherwise until hard 17.
Soft to 18 for dealer 2-8. Soft to 19 for dealer 9 to A.

You should know when to double down.

[jackg]

A lot of places don't let you double if you have more than 11.

Also, if you get 11 or 10 then double. And yes insurance is just throwing money at the dealer...

If you have two aces you might as well split also...

@jetty who has the confidence to do this thing in person . You're a lot more likely to get caught too...

[actmyname]

Also, if you get 11 or 10 then double. And yes insurance is just throwing money at the dealer...

Yup. If you want to be more exact, double on 11 unless dealer has an Ace and you're not playing a <=2 deck table. Double on 10 for dealer 9 and below.

And here's another stipend when it comes to insurance:

Let 10-value cards be -9 and everything else 4. When the running total reaches a true count of 4 (i.e. total > 4 * cardsLeft / cardsTotal) you place insurance.

If you have two aces you might as well split also...

Always split Aces, never split Faces (unless you're counting).

@jetty who has the confidence to do this thing in person . You're a lot more likely to get caught too...

Live counting is where the money is, though. The point to make is to make your bets fall in line with your character or current mood. If they are suspicious (i.e. stagnant bet size then sudden increases) then you will get caught.

[jackg]

I 4xed before in about an hour... It wasn't bad for the £300 I put in, I might keep doing this but I need to find a way to do it on a large online casino (so I don't feel as bad as the bitcoin casinos don't have much of a bankroll I don't think)...

Card counting strategies look quite good especially for me who accidentally forgets to focus on the size of chips I use... I managed to lose £200 a few days ago because I daydreamed while running with my strategy so just kept hitting deal and hit until I repeatedly went bust...

[Jet Cash]

I don't think card counting works with online casinos. The only people I know who have made money from playing in online casinos ( apart from affiliates ) are the pro poker players who start tables to draw in new players. They play with the casino's money, and get a %age of their winnings.

[jackg]

I don't think card counting works with online casinos. The only people I know who have made money from playing in online casinos ( apart from affiliates ) are the pro poker players who start tables to draw in new players. They play with the casino's money, and get a %age of their winnings.

No it doesn't but there are a few other strategies you can use like actmyname said above which can be used to determine how likely they are to go bust...

There's also the thing of brick and mortar casinos or live online casinos shuffling a couple of decks together to get ahead of the counters....

[actmyname]

I don't think card counting works with online casinos. The only people I know who have made money from playing in online casinos ( apart from affiliates ) are the pro poker players who start tables to draw in new players. They play with the casino's money, and get a %age of their winnings.

It does work. But not as efficiently.

Most online places will have 8-deck games with a penetration of 4 decks. This means that to beat the variance you have to be quite lucky.

The highest true count I've ever gone up to (for only a few rounds) is somewhere around 8 before I got shuffled away. This was over the course of scores of hours, over multiple tables.Gamble for fun and adhere to basic strategy. Count if you want to... but it will detract from your enjoyment and if there's a marginal gain, it's not worth it.

(I believe it's somewhere like $5/hr with a 10K bankroll in online play)

[Jet Cash]

I'm in the supermarket cafe drinking coffee, and waiting for the delivery of some more tools I bought from Amazon - A 150mm hole saw, and some stainless steel nuts and bots with nylon washers. I'm fitting a solar extractor fan to the van a bit later. I'm listening to some jazz piano music from the 60s whilst I work our what I plan to do with Bitcoin over the next week or so. I thought I would share these uplifting tracks by Junior Mance.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6zEK76RHR4g

Junior Mance had his first professional gig in Chicago at the age of 10, and had an interesting career following that - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Junior_Mance

[Jet Cash]

Well here we are on Monday, and I seem to have misread the Bitcoin price movement once again. I have an open buy order at £8,995, and I thought we would have a pump and dump over the weekend. The pump was pretty weak, and the dump doesn't seem to be happening. I think we are due for another run up in the price soon, but the world political situation seems to be in chaos. It's even worse for me as I am in the UK, and the media puts their globalist spins on all the news. They portray the resignation of the treasonous remainer MPs as a disaster, but in reality Boris would have sacked them as he "drained the swamp". I wish he would do the same with the senior civil servants who are leeching the wealth and economy of the country.

So is Bitcoin going to be a safe haven, and thus increase in value, or will people take the misguided view that the US dollar is the true safe haven for wealth. I see that £4 million in gold has been seized as part of a drug payment, and they say Bitcoin is the currency of the drug dealers and money launderers. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9549512/gold-bars-seized-heathrow-south-american-cartel/

[crwth]

I do think that it will pump again in some time regarding the past price, maybe this year it could go above the ATH?

We can never really be sure to what "event" or cause would trigger the pump but having the ideal thing maybe is that more adoption by the public? Yes let's say there are a lot of people who launder money, criminals that use Bitcoin, and then what? Are they the cause of the pump? If so it's always going to be the ultimate currency whether you are using it for good or bad reasons, it's still being used. More users, more people, would get it.

Aaaaand, it burns out. The cycle continues, dumps and pumps. There are a lot of questions in my mind, how long would it be a "safe haven". Could it be regulated? Would we want that?

[Jet Cash]

At the moment institutions seem to be buying Bitcoin through direct deals away from the exchanges. One miner sells to an ATM operator for example. These transactions are not reflected in the price movements for Bitcoin. I wonder what will happen if a government or bank starts a major mining operation, because they aren't  able to buy coins without using the exchanges.