Could Bitcoin break 200MA and be down to $1,700? Not so sure!

[Predicoin]

Hey guys,

Maybe you have followed the recent tweets from Murad Mahmudov, a Princeton graduate and crypto analyst?  He was explaining that Bitcoin could plunge down to $1700 in the next 6 months.

He explains why he believes the famous 200-Week Moving Average support from the last bear cycle could be soon broken.

We have released a note with our partner Blockstars Capital:

"Moving Averages are a significant tool in Technical Analysis. The current weekly 200 day Moving Average has acted as support to the market. Whilst this level may break, Blockstars feel you cannot use previous Technical Analysis in Bitcoin to predict where the market will move to this time.
 
Below are a few reasons:
- Cycles 1,2 and 3 were experienced in an immature market. There was no institutional mechanism to go short such as CME and Cbot Futures. This market now consists of different investors with different strategies. There is a more algorithmic trading and institutional investors in this space who allocate for other reasons then one technical trigger.
- 300 and 400 day Moving Averages are not historically used in traditional markets.
- The suggested price does not consider the effects of mining costs and the algorithm that determines the supply of bitcoin
- Does not consider that significant custodial and regulation developments (ETF’s etc) that could establish a bottom in the market and ignite a new bull run. At any stage fundamental news could trigger a significant reversal in the market

When an immature market is solely based on retail speculation, patterns may evolve as seen in Cycles 1,2 and 3 as there is nothing fundamental supporting the price. Blockstars feels this is no longer the case with Bitcoin. This market can no longer be traded purely on Technical Analysis. Whilst it is an important signal, it's something that should be used in conjunction with fundamental analysis before deciding to allocate."
 
You can find all the tweets here with the original note on our blog: https://predicoin.com/blog/could-bitcoin-break-200ma-and-be-down-to-1-700-not-so-sure-

What do you think of the current 200 day moving average of Bitcoin?

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[MURONDI]

very likely bitcoin will drop to $ 1700, considering the market always shows a downtrend, regarding technical analysis, BTC is not the same as forex, BTC movements are more random and difficult to predict, I myself often find false signals from technical analysis at BTC rather than on Forex.

[mindrust]

very likely bitcoin will drop to $ 1700, considering the market always shows a downtrend, regarding technical analysis, BTC is not the same as forex, BTC movements are more random and difficult to predict, I myself often find false signals from technical analysis at BTC rather than on Forex.

It is not very likely but there is a small chance indeed. What is more likely that it is going to hit $2500. If it ever hits $1700 that basically means free money because there will be hundreds of thousands of people who'll filling their bags from those prices.

[CryptoReggae]

very likely bitcoin will drop to $ 1700, considering the market always shows a downtrend, regarding technical analysis, BTC is not the same as forex, BTC movements are more random and difficult to predict, I myself often find false signals from technical analysis at BTC rather than on Forex.

It is not very likely but there is a small chance indeed. What is more likely that it is going to hit $2500. If it ever hits $1700 that basically means free money because there will be hundreds of thousands of people who'll filling their bags from those prices.

There will be fleets that are interested in $ 2500 / $ 1800 / $ 700 / $ 100.
What is certain in my opinion, that a breakup of the SMA 200 would lead to a huge red candle, and to other years of Bearish trend, other than purchases ...

[butka]

He explains why he believes the famous 200-Week Moving Average support from the last bear cycle could be soon broken.

Well, the way I see it, there are only two options: the price will either bounce off the 200 MA support or it will break the 200 MA support. 50:50 chances. If the price breaks the support, Murad Mahmudov will be right. If not, life goes on.

I don't think you can (or should) assign too much significance to MAs or other technical tools. Or at least not in a market so volatile and impulse driven like the crypto market currently is.

[davis196]

I don't trust the moving average price model.It's price prediction based on previous price behaviour,which we all know is wrong.The market price might go anywhere the crypto whales want it to go.Some unexpected event might break the market price pattern,and it could hit the moon or crash.I don't trust crypto analysts anymore.

[carlfebz2]

very likely bitcoin will drop to $ 1700, considering the market always shows a downtrend, regarding technical analysis, BTC is not the same as forex, BTC movements are more random and difficult to predict, I myself often find false signals from technical analysis at BTC rather than on Forex.

When it comes to technical analysis precision results then I would say that traditional markets like forex and stocks would most likely able to followed these kind of predictions using up TA
but for cryptocurrencies i do really saw that it can really break anyones predictions no matter how good they do made with TA.
For price $1700 prediction, its plausible but we should still consider on how the price would broke down to below 3k before heading with that possible low level.

[pawanjain]

To all those that say that bitcoin will not hold the price any longer and will break down and go below $1700, predictions are never accurate in crypto.
So many experts have made so many predictions about BTC so many times. The haters have many times said that bitcoin will collapse and go down to zero.
But it we can see that it is still holding on to the price very well. Although the market is bearish at the moment, it doesn't mean that it will stay the same or be worse for long.
BTC has faced worst conditions and yet has recovered from it. So just wait until bitcoin recovers this trend and then come back here to be ignorant.

[Slow death]

Maybe you have followed the recent tweets from Murad Mahmudov, a Princeton graduate and crypto analyst?  He was explaining that Bitcoin could plunge down to $1700 in the next 6 months.

So we have another Tom Lee in the square? we will see what the price of bitcoin will be in 6 months, if the price does not fall to  $1700, this guy Murad Mahmudov will lose any credibility in the crypto world.

He explains why he believes the famous 200-Week Moving Average support from the last bear cycle could be soon broken.

We have released a note with our partner Blockstars Capital:

"Moving Averages are a significant tool in Technical Analysis. The current weekly 200 day Moving Average has acted as support to the market. Whilst this level may break, Blockstars feel you cannot use previous Technical Analysis in Bitcoin to predict where the market will move to this time.
 
Below are a few reasons:
- Cycles 1,2 and 3 were experienced in an immature market. There was no institutional mechanism to go short such as CME and Cbot Futures. This market now consists of different investors with different strategies. There is a more algorithmic trading and institutional investors in this space who allocate for other reasons then one technical trigger.
- 300 and 400 day Moving Averages are not historically used in traditional markets.
- The suggested price does not consider the effects of mining costs and the algorithm that determines the supply of bitcoin
- Does not consider that significant custodial and regulation developments (ETF’s etc) that could establish a bottom in the market and ignite a new bull run. At any stage fundamental news could trigger a significant reversal in the market

I repeat what I said: " we will see what the price of bitcoin will be in 6 months, if the price does not fall to  $1700, this guy Murad Mahmudov will lose any credibility in the crypto world. "

whenever prices fall, people are making predictions of more falling and whenever prices go up people are making forecasts of price hikes. this cycle has already become very predictable

[Bagaji]

Well, that will be a great avenue for so many people who are yet to invest in Bitcoin at the cheaper rate to do so, but I very unlikely for Bitcoin market value to drop down to the turn of$1700 in the next six weeks. That can only happen in Forex market since the design of the 200MA is mainly for the for Forex and not necessarily with crypto currency market.

[carter34]

very likely bitcoin will drop to $ 1700, considering the market always shows a downtrend, regarding technical analysis, BTC is not the same as forex, BTC movements are more random and difficult to predict, I myself often find false signals from technical analysis at BTC rather than on Forex.

But I don't think that forex is predictable too. Sometimes, you predict market to go bull and after the end of the day, you open your system, you see a serious bear.

[ikicha]

If this happen, then iam getting rekt with my crypto porfolio. i was chasing and waiting price to be up more than 7000$ because iam already have a major coin from my bounty & mining ready to sell for my profit.

[shield132]

I have no idea if anyone really wants to see bitcoin under 1700$. If this coin falls that much, altcoins will follow it too, there will be a huge chaos and such fall will be shock, this automatically means end of bitcoin because at 1700 I highly believe 90% won't mine bitcoin and if someone can handle that, I have no idea because at such fall even wish of handling fades away.