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Author Topic: The Effect of A Massive HODL Campaign  (Read 292 times)
Atheneum Blockchain
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February 07, 2019, 02:38:27 AM
 #1

  If you were able create a widespread campaign where the vast majority of traders and HODLers could hold their Bitcoin for 30 days, what would be the effect?  Would the dramatically reduced trade-able supply boost the price or would low liquidity ultimately hurt the price? 
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February 07, 2019, 03:33:58 AM
 #2

It could go either ways, but low liquidity might result to rush sellers lowering their price a lot lower to meet the demands of low-ballers. Should a widespread campaign prove successful, only the low-ballers and people who need cash immediately be the ones remaining in the market, thus potentially pulling the price down and causing a downtrend for the next 30 days of the campaign.

There needs to be someone in the market who would 'equalize' the buys and the sells so as to make the price stable.

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February 07, 2019, 04:45:33 AM
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 #3

I've watched two sort of "organized" hodl campaigns in the past. Specifically, ChainCoin(CHC) and Syndicate(SYNX). Both pretty dead and useless coins, but yea.

The ChainCoin hodl campaign was started by a YouTuber(HighOnCoins) in the past, whereas HighOnCoins simply just deleted his past videos on ChainCoin just to clean his name. Pretty much he told the people to "hodl" the coin so the price just goes up due to significantly more CHC being bought than being sold. Then, the SYNX campaign was started by some people who was late to the ChainCoin pump and dump.

Well, obviously what happened was that when there wasn't enough money going into these coins, people started to panic and sell; just as expected. I'm going to let the charts speak for itself(NOTE: focus on BTC value. Yellow lines):



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Now, would the same happen with a bitcoin hodl campaign? No one knows just as always, but I really expect the same to happen as when the prices starts to go down, people are going to panic sell. You really can't trust 100% of the people on the campaign to hold.

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February 07, 2019, 05:41:50 AM
 #4

The problem with these campaigns are the people who always piss against the stream and who will not support a campaign like this. As soon as the price goes up, they will start selling and things will balance out. You cannot dictate to people on how to manage their money and investments, so you leave the market to determine it's own fate, based on supply and demand.

The best strategy would be to increase the demand for coins by reaching out to more merchants to accept Bitcoin and for developers to create Kick-ass applications that use Bitcoin as a payment option.  Wink

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February 07, 2019, 06:10:15 AM
 #5

If you were able create a widespread campaign where the vast majority of traders and HODLers could hold their Bitcoin for 30 days, what would be the effect?  Would the dramatically reduced trade-able supply boost the price or would low liquidity ultimately hurt the price? 

you could never get people to do it. everyone has a different buy-in price, so profit-taking is a very personal matter. if you could convince some people to withhold supply (driving prices up), other sellers will step in and reap the profits. the effect will be minimal because sellers are rational and are competing against one another.

what's been done in some altcoins to accomplish this is to create incentives to withhold supply. proof-of-stake and masternodes, for example.

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February 07, 2019, 06:17:21 AM
 #6

If the demand is high, and supply is stagnated, the price would most likely increase to draw out hodlers to sell their assets. If there is no demand or low demand, hodling would have very little effect
For a crypto assets such as bitcoin, it would be impossible to get everyone to hodl, and also demtrimental for a currency which should be used as a medium of exchange.

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February 07, 2019, 06:22:50 AM
 #7

I'm not sure that such campaigns could have any effect because it's hard to massive engage people on such projects. Everyone has iits own goals and strategy and it would be very hard to convince them that exactly holding in that exact moment is the right thing to do. But having in mind situation on the market I have the feeling that majority of Bitcoin users are holding their coins anyway.

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February 07, 2019, 06:55:10 AM
 #8

  If you were able create a widespread campaign where the vast majority of traders and HODLers could hold their Bitcoin for 30 days, what would be the effect?  Would the dramatically reduced trade-able supply boost the price or would low liquidity ultimately hurt the price? 

If people would hold more their Btc instead of panic selling it,  price would definitively increase.  Demand would remain more or less the same but the offering will decrease significantly.  This would automatically translate into a price increase.

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February 07, 2019, 07:07:30 AM
 #9

  If you were able create a widespread campaign where the vast majority of traders and HODLers could hold their Bitcoin for 30 days, what would be the effect?  Would the dramatically reduced trade-able supply boost the price or would low liquidity ultimately hurt the price? 
It is a billion dollar market to begin with and you really cannot control one percent of the bitcoin holders let alone having a campaign so that people will hold their coins for a certain period, market will always go down if there are more sellers than buyers and you could not literally do anything about it, that being said, since halving is coming up the inflation will reduce further and it will have an impact on the price.

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February 07, 2019, 07:41:26 AM
 #10

This would only work for coins that have a limited distribution, as there are too many bitcoin hodlers this strategy would only work for pump and dumpers. Price would rise, then dumpers will benefit

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February 07, 2019, 08:57:15 AM
 #11

  If you were able create a widespread campaign where the vast majority of traders and HODLers could hold their Bitcoin for 30 days, what would be the effect?  Would the dramatically reduced trade-able supply boost the price or would low liquidity ultimately hurt the price? 
Maybe volume trading will less than usually. It is good because price will stable. I only talk when people hold their Bitcoin, not when pumped. Because if a lot of people who hold Bitcoin, and it price pumped, people will start to sell their coins and price will dumped again.

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February 07, 2019, 12:28:31 PM
 #12

What would be the point other than generating profit by artificially
increasing the price so that some can quickly sell and take maximum
profit at the expense of others who might not be so quick or are
blindly holding . . . something like a pump and dump would occur.

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February 07, 2019, 12:37:25 PM
 #13

It would be a laughing stock for them obviously, and I am pretty sure 95% of non-crypto holders wouldn't take it seriously even if they started in investing in crypto. Let them absorb the essence of crypto for now before putting such meme-like things in crypto. Try to get their seriousness first before you put this campaign. It's just gonna be a massive waste of time trying to convince them to HODL because it would be like a stupidity to put something HODL in their minds instead of hold.

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February 07, 2019, 01:02:28 PM
 #14

you can't force people to do anything that they  don't want to. you can fool certain people with little to no experience and/or brains into doing irrational things but everyone else will do what is best for them. if someone is already accumulating and holding they will do it and if someone has sold they have sold and not waiting for some campaign.

with that said, since it is a moot question there is no point arguing some imaginary scenario that can never happen.

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February 07, 2019, 01:07:48 PM
 #15

  If you were able create a widespread campaign where the vast majority of traders and HODLers could hold their Bitcoin for 30 days, what would be the effect?  Would the dramatically reduced trade-able supply boost the price or would low liquidity ultimately hurt the price? 

If the bitcoin buyers are aware of that mega HODL campaign.They would just wait for 30 days and then start buying cheap bitcoins.Everything in the market is all about information.Not just information,but asimmetric information.The sellers should know something that the buyers don't.

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February 07, 2019, 01:34:21 PM
 #16

  If you were able create a widespread campaign where the vast majority of traders and HODLers could hold their Bitcoin for 30 days, what would be the effect?  Would the dramatically reduced trade-able supply boost the price or would low liquidity ultimately hurt the price? 

first of all that is not something you can do with a silly campaign, the biggest one took place recently and was called "proof of keys" which was encouraging people to withdraw from exchanges and keep their coins out of them... long story short nobody listened.
as for the price, technically if you do something like that you are effectively telling people to stay out of the market so price should not move at all because there is nobody left to buy or sell.

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February 07, 2019, 02:51:03 PM
 #17

  If you were able create a widespread campaign where the vast majority of traders and HODLers could hold their Bitcoin for 30 days, what would be the effect?  Would the dramatically reduced trade-able supply boost the price or would low liquidity ultimately hurt the price? 

As the campaign will be artificial it won't achieve anything.
Traders will know that the hold period will end up in XX days and even if there is any effect, it could be speculated in future exchanges like Bitmex or Okex.

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February 07, 2019, 03:16:55 PM
 #18

Bitcoin is being used by so many people these days. Organizing a campaign might sound easy but it surely would be a tough job to convince everybody to hold their coins.
There would be at least some people who will eventually sell at some point and the rally towards panic sell will continue and lead to a down trend.
I guess most of the people just holded their coins in the year 2018 so that they don't sell their coins in a loss but the price eventually dropped anyway.

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February 07, 2019, 07:22:53 PM
 #19

  If you were able create a widespread campaign where the vast majority of traders and HODLers could hold their Bitcoin for 30 days, what would be the effect?  Would the dramatically reduced trade-able supply boost the price or would low liquidity ultimately hurt the price? 
the possible effect you will get is that you will probably lose because usually the price of the token after ICO will surely fall but if ico has a good development the price will increase and rise, from experience there are a lot of token prices that fall after the ICO.

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February 07, 2019, 09:02:30 PM
 #20

  If you were able create a widespread campaign where the vast majority of traders and HODLers could hold their Bitcoin for 30 days, what would be the effect?  Would the dramatically reduced trade-able supply boost the price or would low liquidity ultimately hurt the price? 

Most likely, it would make the market illiquid as there are more than 90% of coins traded against BTC, and so if BTC (which by the way holds more than 50% of market dominance) halts, the effect would ripple down and cause a whole lot of inactivity on crypto exchanges. Alternatively, while BTC prices will indeed spike due to scarcity, Ethereum as stablecoins will be the go-to place to hedge whatever miserable shitcoins anyone has, consequently increasing their worth.

But this is just a simplistic view, it could get more complex and things could spin outta control.

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