The Effect of A Massive HODL Campaign

[SportbetMaster]

  If you were able create a widespread campaign where the vast majority of traders and HODLers could hold their Bitcoin for 30 days, what would be the effect?  Would the dramatically reduced trade-able supply boost the price or would low liquidity ultimately hurt the price? 

this kind of campaign will end up killing bitcoin.
Imagine what will happen on the 30th day of this campaign; it's going to be the green light to sell and it's everybody who wants to sell before others.
THE END.

[sirohige]

If all of us refused to sell bitcoin will definitely be stagnated and at the end no need for it as we would all sell after the 30 days and pushed the price down. Bitcoin should be allowed to recover by itself as it has been doing.

well, ico follows prices and bitcoin price movements, but bitcoin will never be able to rise alone, bitcoin must need support such as buying a lot of bitcoin so that bitcoin can recover.

[South Park]

  If you were able create a widespread campaign where the vast majority of traders and HODLers could hold their Bitcoin for 30 days, what would be the effect?  Would the dramatically reduced trade-able supply boost the price or would low liquidity ultimately hurt the price? 

Why we will want to do something like that? And how it could be enforced if an agreement was reached that such a thing was good for the market? The concept of being your bank is not only about gaining independence from banks but from any other third party, we must be free of using our bitcoin as we want, if anyone tried to do something like that then there will always be traders willing to sell their coins to the detriment of those that are still holding.

[Oilacris]

  If you were able create a widespread campaign where the vast majority of traders and HODLers could hold their Bitcoin for 30 days, what would be the effect?  Would the dramatically reduced trade-able supply boost the price or would low liquidity ultimately hurt the price? 

On such case of this campaign then there would be no effect on the price. Why? because theres no liquidity involved into these times. Trades and holders are both on stable state which means
there no activity between sellers and buyers.No one supplied and no one buys so its normal to think that there would be no activity.

[xuan87]

I think with all of the traders and holders holding their coin we will create a stagnant price, crypto need supply and demand to make the price moving without any transactions volume then the price will stay still, and it will have bad effect for the market, in long term the coin will lose its reputation

[mk4]

I think with all of the traders and holders holding their coin we will create a stagnant price, crypto need supply and demand to make the price moving without any transactions volume then the price will stay still, and it will have bad effect for the market, in long term the coin will lose its reputation

I'm definitely not for this idea of a "hodl campaign", but completely assuming that 100% of the bitcoin holders will "hodl" and sell zero bitcoin, while demand(buys) stays the same, bitcoin will definitely go up. With zero selling(which is impossible) and with demand still existing, there's no way it's going to stay stagnant.

and no, how is price stagnancy cause bitcoin to lose it's reputation? If anything, price stagnancy is actually beneficial due to the "store-of-value" idea of bitcoin will actually be effective.

[exstasie]

If everybody withheld supply, price would obviously rise.

It'll never happen like this though. You won't convince people to abandon their own rationality for the greater good of hodlers. They'll see a chance to pocket a nice profit and will just sell.

[Slow death]

If you were able create a widespread campaign where the vast majority of traders and HODLers could hold their Bitcoin for 30 days, what would be the effect? 

the price would increase as @exstasie said, but 30 days later the price would fall a lot, then do this is something useless long term

would low liquidity ultimately hurt the price?

this idea in the long run would not be good. we need to use bitcoin as a means of payments in the real world. we need to give bitcoin a great deal of use. What we are doing now is just use bitcoin in the exchanges to make trade and because of this all people are entering the crypto world because they want to get high profits, people are not giving another use for their bitcoins only use to trade in the exchanges.

[gabmen]

If all of us refused to sell bitcoin will definitely be stagnated and at the end no need for it as we would all sell after the 30 days and pushed the price down. Bitcoin should be allowed to recover by itself as it has been doing.

well, ico follows prices and bitcoin price movements, but bitcoin will never be able to rise alone, bitcoin must need support such as buying a lot of bitcoin so that bitcoin can recover.

It seems that that's what's actually happening right now. Those that are hodling bitcoin are still hodling and have no plans of selling. As you said, market would be stagnant unless a panic attack is started or the whales decide that it's time to buy in bulks. It's likely a wait and see situation for most of us.

[Dreamchaser21]

  If you were able create a widespread campaign where the vast majority of traders and HODLers could hold their Bitcoin for 30 days, what would be the effect?  Would the dramatically reduced trade-able supply boost the price or would low liquidity ultimately hurt the price? 

If no one will buy then the price will become more cheaper until no more sellers and the price will become more stable. After the deadline of 30days, we can expect a more volatile price because everyone want to liquidate their money and leave the market for now because it will crash for sure. So I think this is really not a good idea.

[magneto]

  If you were able create a widespread campaign where the vast majority of traders and HODLers could hold their Bitcoin for 30 days, what would be the effect?  Would the dramatically reduced trade-able supply boost the price or would low liquidity ultimately hurt the price? 

Firstly, how would you be able to create this "campaign"? It's simply unfeasible and impossible to make it work because of the sheer number of people that you have to convince. Add the fact that bitcoin is decentralised, you will never make this work in practice.

Secondly, even if it did work theoretically everyone would know that bitcoin's supply has been artificially suppressed, and as a result I expect investors to back out of purchasing altogether, leading to reduced liquidity. Another possible scenario would be that people would speculate and gamble, but that would only be something short term which will eventually collapse.

Either way, I don't think that this type of centralised manipulation would ever work, and if it did, it would in fact significantly hurt bitcoin in the long run especially with the public's perception of bitcoin being changed to something that can be easily manipulated.

[buwaytress]

  If you were able create a widespread campaign where the vast majority of traders and HODLers could hold their Bitcoin for 30 days, what would be the effect?  Would the dramatically reduced trade-able supply boost the price or would low liquidity ultimately hurt the price? 

I just received an email not three days ago from an exchange that's issued its own token to do exactly that actually. Apparently, I go in, buy a small amount of their tokens, and hold for 30 days, and I get some fee waiver bonus plus all sorts of other goodies just for doing that.

I suppose someone must have already tried out that strategy (isn't there a coin called strong hands or something?)... get everyone to hold and see a price climb simply because there isn't enough sell orders to fuel demand?

Wouldn't work for Bitcoin. I think the permabulls are already holding as much as they can. Miners and stashers who're hurting now (or even guys like me) are selling the bare essentials to survive. The low volume of trades these weeks already tell us, we're holding as much as we can.

[1Referee]

Wouldn't work for Bitcoin. I think the permabulls are already holding as much as they can. Miners and stashers who're hurting now (or even guys like me) are selling the bare essentials to survive. The low volume of trades these weeks already tell us, we're holding as much as we can.

It's difficult to combat sellers who are either selling because they have to, regardless of the price, or ICO's who obtained their coins with a shitty infeasible idea that wouldn't ever work anyway. These entities (especially the ICO's) have no problems selling even at $2000 if they have/want to. People are rightfully cautious to go balls deep and buy up every satoshi at current levels with that in mind.

I do however have the impression that the market is exhausted and we're potentially up for a sweet bounce over $4000, and if it breaks the resistance around $4200 it would be the first bit of positiveness in a very long time.

[exstasie]

I think the permabulls are already holding as much as they can. Miners and stashers who're hurting now (or even guys like me) are selling the bare essentials to survive. The low volume of trades these weeks already tell us, we're holding as much as we can.

Honestly, I feel that, and unfortunately that's an environment ripe for capitulation. The problem with the old "blood in the streets" metric is you can see a whole lot of blood before the market has finally had enough.

I do however have the impression that the market is exhausted and we're potentially up for a sweet bounce over $4000, and if it breaks the resistance around $4200 it would be the first bit of positiveness in a very long time.

Same feeling here. It would look a lot like the pump we saw in Q4 of 2014. Given the environment I'm seeing, I think the market will still dig deeper afterwards.

[shoreno]

If no one will buy then the price will become more cheaper until no more sellers and the price will become more stable. After the deadline of 30days, we can expect a more volatile price because everyone want to liquidate their money and leave the market for now because it will crash for sure. So I think this is really not a good idea.

its a good idea actually because in this way , we can help the price to recover  but the only problem is that it is impossible to have a unity .we all have different needs  .  not all user can hodl in a longer time because we also need the cash  . its unfair for some but that is the reality  . sorry !

on such case of this campaign then there would be no effect on the price.

there is effect and thats is the price will became stagnant  . some people loves stability  and i think this can lead to new investors to enter the market scene . after that , the price are expected to move again  .

[michellee]

Both can happen at the same times but I don't think that will happen because all traders will have a different decision and that is what we are going to see later. If all traders decide to not sell bitcoin, then the market will stop but I don't know about altcoin, follows to stop or continue to being traded. And it will soon we will see bitcoin will end because no one wants to buy or sell and it makes the price stops moving although the supply still continues and maybe the price can fall deeper.

[mk4]

its a good idea actually because in this way , we can help the price to recover  but the only problem is that it is impossible to have a unity .

It's actually not a very good idea. It's just another way of manipulating the markets, the difference is that it's just in favor of the hodlers. I'd honestly rather wait for bitcoin to organically find it's sort of "stable" price, no matter how long it takes.

[buwaytress]

Wouldn't work for Bitcoin. I think the permabulls are already holding as much as they can. Miners and stashers who're hurting now (or even guys like me) are selling the bare essentials to survive. The low volume of trades these weeks already tell us, we're holding as much as we can.

It's difficult to combat sellers who are either selling because they have to, regardless of the price, or ICO's who obtained their coins with a shitty infeasible idea that wouldn't ever work anyway. These entities (especially the ICO's) have no problems selling even at $2000 if they have/want to. People are rightfully cautious to go balls deep and buy up every satoshi at current levels with that in mind.

I do however have the impression that the market is exhausted and we're potentially up for a sweet bounce over $4000, and if it breaks the resistance around $4200 it would be the first bit of positiveness in a very long time.

The past day's volumes in the buy zone certainly look like the exhaustion was - for the time being - premature. I actually even have a bet last month on fairlay that needs BTC to touch 4k by 15 Feb to win, and that was a 5/1 bet at the time, so I guess not many people were backing that sweet bounce.

I'm not convinced breaking even 4.5k would bode anything for 2019, but sure, I think it will be some much welcome respite.

@exstasie: I think the pragmatists have been waiting for this period of blood and digging in deeper. The realists will insist that we're still far from that period yet... capitulation, however cyclical, hasn't actually happened yet.

[1Referee]

I'm not convinced breaking even 4.5k would bode anything for 2019, but sure, I think it will be some much welcome respite.

It depends on what your targets are for this year. My personal target for 2019 is to settle above the main $5700-$5800 support, preferably firmly above the $6000 level. If that happens, I consider this to be a successful year. It's going to be a tough level to break through, and that while it kept us up for most of 2018, but it's not entirely impossible.

We have to forget about bull runs and focus on realistic growth, because that's much more reliable in the end. On top of that, the longer it takes for wild west speculation to start boiling up, the more time there is for Lightning to grow and serve users off-chain. If we can also welcome Schnorr signatures this year then that's even better.

In other words, boring year in terms of price action is an amazing year for Bitcoin fundamentally.

[exstasie]

I'm not convinced breaking even 4.5k would bode anything for 2019, but sure, I think it will be some much welcome respite.

It depends on what your targets are for this year. My personal target for 2019 is to settle above the main $5700-$5800 support, preferably firmly above the $6000 level. If that happens, I consider this to be a successful year. It's going to be a tough level to break through, and that while it kept us up for most of 2018, but it's not entirely impossible.

I just don't see it happening this year (reclaiming $6K as support). That level acted as support for 9 months.....it should be hard resistance by now. It will definitely take more than one attempt to break it on the weekly or monthly time frame. Even if the bottom is in, we're still scraping the bottom mid-way through Q1. Just considering the time aspect, I think sometime in 2020 is more likely.