Where do you expect Bitcoin to "settle" once the market is mature?

[thecodebear]

Eventually if bitcoin is adopted by the world its volatility will tick way down and it's market will mature. Look at gold it is fairly settled between in the 1200 - 1400 range for the past about 6 years now. Where do you think that point is for Bitcoin? Not saying it won't occasionally have big movements, but outside of some big economic event that causes a big price movement where do you think it will settle?

I'm thinking in the $300k/$400k range.

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[talkbitcoin]

it is not possible to say. we are still on the ground floor and seeing the final step from here is not possible. all we know is that bitcoin is still rising and so far has only fulfilled something like 1% of its true potential so there is still a long way to go before we reach that stability level due to its mass adoption.

if i had to make a guess, i'd say it would take at least another 10 to 15 years and price would settle somewhere around $1 million.

[o_e_l_e_o]

it is not possible to say. we are still on the ground floor and seeing the final step from here is not possible.

Agreed. It depends entirely on how widespread adoption is. If adoption is stuck at where we are now, with a small handful of users and niche services, then the final price is probably close to where we are now, if not lower. If we end up with widespread adoption, and bitcoin becoming the "currency of the internet" like Jack Dorsey (Twitter CEO) said a few days ago, being the payment of choice for many massive online services like Amazon and Steam, then we could well be looking at a 6 or even 7 digit figure.

It's impossible to tell, and widespread adoption (if it comes) is years, if not decades away.

[YuginKadoya]

I can say that the maturity of bitcoin was finally taking the effect through out the years and the correction was still there that is why the price is keeping on bursting down, But the good part is when the price floor was met we can finally see that the the price is still increasing forward, This is how the price of bitcoin settle in the past and I think by doing this we can then see another all time high.

Volatility is a sure thing for bitcoin to improve itself and many are considering its volatility as a sure possibility for them to succeed.

[Pursuer]

it is not possible to say. we are still on the ground floor and seeing the final step from here is not possible.

Agreed. It depends entirely on how widespread adoption is. If adoption is stuck at where we are now, with a small handful of users and niche services, then the final price is probably close to where we are now, if not lower. If we end up with widespread adoption, and bitcoin becoming the "currency of the internet" like Jack Dorsey (Twitter CEO) said a few days ago, being the payment of choice for many massive online services like Amazon and Steam, then we could well be looking at a 6 or even 7 digit figure.

It's impossible to tell, and widespread adoption (if it comes) is years, if not decades away.

lets not forget about the limited total supply of bitcoin. unlike any other currency, bitcoin has a cap. there will never be more than that fixed amount (21 million) coins and bitcoin being a global currency and the population of the world being a lot more than the small percentage that are already in, we can easily expect 6-7 figures with half a growth before even reaching mass adoption.

[o_e_l_e_o]

-snip-

If we look beyond our lifetimes, provided we don't kill ourselves with global warming, nuclear war, or similar, the human race will colonize other planets. We will, at some point, reach a population of trillions of individuals. If (and it's a big if) bitcoin is still around, even only as a niche payment method, the price could be much higher than it is now. If it becomes widespread in such a large population, the price would be massive.

[xuan87]

It's hard to say what will be the price of Bitcoin once it settle, it can be any number but I guess it will be around 100k, but from time to time the value will keep on increasing due to the limited supply, and calculating the lost coin, it's too soon to say a specific number and it's a long way before Bitcoin reach maturity, we are still in phase of passing the government permission

[semobo]

Eventually if bitcoin is adopted by the world its volatility will tick way down and it's market will mature. Look at gold it is fairly settled between in the 1200 - 1400 range for the past about 6 years now. Where do you think that point is for Bitcoin? Not saying it won't occasionally have big movements, but outside of some big economic event that causes a big price movement where do you think it will settle?

I'm thinking in the $300k/$400k range.

It is hard to predict the value of bitcoin for now because lot of coins were lost or just buried in wallets for long time,the population of world keep increasing and the value of fiat getting inflated and more over lot of cryptocurrencies were created.

[Idrisu]

Eventually if bitcoin is adopted by the world its volatility will tick way down and it's market will mature. Look at gold it is fairly settled between in the 1200 - 1400 range for the past about 6 years now. Where do you think that point is for Bitcoin? Not saying it won't occasionally have big movements, but outside of some big economic event that causes a big price movement where do you think it will settle?

I'm thinking in the $300k/$400k range.

It might take a very long time for that to happen because it volatility has to be in place when maturity started to have it ways in the market.  We actually needs the stability in other to be able to witness public adoptions and acceptability. 

[exstasie]

Eventually if bitcoin is adopted by the world its volatility will tick way down and it's market will mature. Look at gold it is fairly settled between in the 1200 - 1400 range for the past about 6 years now. Where do you think that point is for Bitcoin? Not saying it won't occasionally have big movements, but outside of some big economic event that causes a big price movement where do you think it will settle?

I'm thinking in the $300k/$400k range.

For gold, this is just a short-term consolidation. It didn't "settle" anywhere. It just had a historic bull run from the $200s to nearly $2,000 per ounce that ended not even 8 years ago. In the late 70s, it was trading below $150!

It took gold thousands of years to reach a point where it's still very volatile by any conventional standards. Bitcoin won't settle so soon either. We're nowhere near mass adoption yet so who knows what it'll look like when we achieve that? If anywhere, it'll be seven figures USD and not six, but can't get more precise than that.

[wuvdoll]

Eventually if bitcoin is adopted by the world its volatility will tick way down and it's market will mature. Look at gold it is fairly settled between in the 1200 - 1400 range for the past about 6 years now. Where do you think that point is for Bitcoin? Not saying it won't occasionally have big movements, but outside of some big economic event that causes a big price movement where do you think it will settle?

I'm thinking in the $300k/$400k range.

300 Thousand dollars per bitcoin is about 5.4 trillion dollars. All by itself. I just wanted to point that out because nasdaq itself is 7.4 trillion dollars. That means you think bitcoin could worth around the same as all nasdaq combines combined together. Like literally all of nasdaq comes together and all those companies and all those marketcaps all come together to worth 7.4 trillion dollars and you think its possible for bitcoin to reach there ? I am sorry but you must be dreaming.

More honest potential is 1 trillion at best and thats around 55-60 thousand dollars. I am fine with that type of pricing because it makes it more realistic than some imaginary skyrocketing that makes it sound like we are in a cartoon world or we are in some sort of game.

[figmentofmyass]

300 Thousand dollars per bitcoin is about 5.4 trillion dollars. All by itself. I just wanted to point that out because nasdaq itself is 7.4 trillion dollars. That means you think bitcoin could worth around the same as all nasdaq combines combined together. Like literally all of nasdaq comes together and all those companies and all those marketcaps all come together to worth 7.4 trillion dollars and you think its possible for bitcoin to reach there ? I am sorry but you must be dreaming.

why do you think the capitalization of nasdaq matters? what relationship are you trying to show?

if we're talking about high level aggregate money supplies like M3+ (and that is relevant if bitcoin ever becomes entrenched in the institutional markets), it doesn't seem like "dreaming" to me.

a few decades ago, gold only had capitalization of a trillion dollars. what if bitcoin becomes a legitimate store of value asset like gold in the eyes of mainstream investors and institutions? on a longer timeline, is $7 trillion ( gold's current market cap) really impossible?

[gentlemand]

I don't think gold comparisons are very valid. For starters its supply is not predictable nor does not have a hard cap. And pricing is set by paper gold and no doubt intensely controlled by a small number of groups.

A fully saturated Bitcoin will trade globally 24/7 and since it lives on the internet in a way gold never can it may reach much greater numbers of people too. I personally only know one person who owns any gold. No one else I've ever known has mentioned the desire to own any.

Perhaps naively I expected this bubble to be less volatile. It was certainly more sluggish but the percentages haven't been too far off previous ones. I guess we'll need a few more booms and busts before thinking about a steadier figure but I think it'll need to be many more years down the line yet.

[Biodom]

Eventually if bitcoin is adopted by the world its volatility will tick way down and it's market will mature. Look at gold it is fairly settled between in the 1200 - 1400 range for the past about 6 years now. Where do you think that point is for Bitcoin? Not saying it won't occasionally have big movements, but outside of some big economic event that causes a big price movement where do you think it will settle?

I'm thinking in the $300k/$400k range.

300 Thousand dollars per bitcoin is about 5.4 trillion dollars. All by itself. I just wanted to point that out because nasdaq itself is 7.4 trillion dollars. That means you think bitcoin could worth around the same as all nasdaq combines combined together. Like literally all of nasdaq comes together and all those companies and all those marketcaps all come together to worth 7.4 trillion dollars and you think its possible for bitcoin to reach there ? I am sorry but you must be dreaming.

More honest potential is 1 trillion at best and thats around 55-60 thousand dollars. I am fine with that type of pricing because it makes it more realistic than some imaginary skyrocketing that makes it sound like we are in a cartoon world or we are in some sort of game.

wrong numbers...Nasdaq 12-13 tril (not sure where 7.4 came from), NYSE 20-22 tril. All stock markets 70 tril. Bond market above 40 tril in US alone, above 100 tril worldwide.
Gold-another 7-8 tril.

[1Referee]

lets not forget about the limited total supply of bitcoin. unlike any other currency, bitcoin has a cap. there will never be more than that fixed amount (21 million) coins and bitcoin being a global currency and the population of the world being a lot more than the small percentage that are already in, we can easily expect 6-7 figures with half a growth before even reaching mass adoption.

Bitcoin has indeed a limited total supply, but there is an infinite supply of paper (contract) Bitcoin. Gold's spot volumes are so low compared to the paper volumes, that it in some cases represent a ratio of 1/100. In other words, for every dollar that has been used to trade spot Gold, there has been $100 dollars used to trade paper Gold.

Bitcoin will be heading in that exact same direction eventually. CME is catching up fast, and they are frequently generating more volume than Coinbase Pro itself.

I'm happy if Bitcoin settles between $100,000-$200,000 where we can use the relative stability to actually use it as currency. In the end, we won't look at Bitcoin being worth $100,000 anymore, but at the smaller nominations being worth either $1-$10-$100-$1000, etc.

[gentlemand]

wrong numbers...Nasdaq 12-13 tril (not sure where 7.4 came from), NYSE 20-22 tril. All stock markets 70 tril. Bond market above 40 tril in US alone, above 100 tril worldwide.
Gold-another 7-8 tril.

And what proportion of the Earth's population can access an American stock or bond market?

Anyone anywhere can access Bitcoin as long as they have a way of connecting somehow.

There's not enough reflection on the permissionless part mainly because most of us writing here have that permission. Billions do not.

[hatshepsut93]

Settle is such a relative term, just because gold was at certain range for the last years, there's no guarantee that it will stay there. Same with Bitcoin, even if it will settle at some point, it will likely change later. There will probably be another bubble soon, and after that it will settle in another bottom, just like it happening now. My prediction is that the next bottom will be at $15,000. But does it count as mature? I don't think so, Bitcoin will take a decade or even more to truly mature.

[pooya87]

Eventually if bitcoin is adopted by the world its volatility will tick way down and it's market will mature. Look at gold it is fairly settled between in the 1200 - 1400 range for the past about 6 years now. Where do you think that point is for Bitcoin? Not saying it won't occasionally have big movements, but outside of some big economic event that causes a big price movement where do you think it will settle?

I'm thinking in the $300k/$400k range.

300 Thousand dollars per bitcoin is about 5.4 trillion dollars. All by itself. I just wanted to point that out because nasdaq itself is 7.4 trillion dollars. That means you think bitcoin could worth around the same as all nasdaq combines combined together. Like literally all of nasdaq comes together and all those companies and all those marketcaps all come together to worth 7.4 trillion dollars and you think its possible for bitcoin to reach there ? I am sorry but you must be dreaming.

More honest potential is 1 trillion at best and thats around 55-60 thousand dollars. I am fine with that type of pricing because it makes it more realistic than some imaginary skyrocketing that makes it sound like we are in a cartoon world or we are in some sort of game.

well all i can say to that is that some day (not even so long ago) if you told people that bitcoin is going to be worth $3000 they would have told you, "it is impossible, you are dreaming" but it went up to $20k! you see it is not about the size of that number, that value is just in your perspective that looks big or small. you should look at the bigger picture. not to mention that you are looking at the value of 1.00000000 BTC instead of looking at the value of smaller units. and comparing that with market capitalization! which doesn't even make sense because you are comparing apples and oranges.

[davis196]

Eventually if bitcoin is adopted by the world its volatility will tick way down and it's market will mature. Look at gold it is fairly settled between in the 1200 - 1400 range for the past about 6 years now. Where do you think that point is for Bitcoin? Not saying it won't occasionally have big movements, but outside of some big economic event that causes a big price movement where do you think it will settle?

I'm thinking in the $300k/$400k range.

What if the bitcoin market never becomes "mature".I think the btc price volatility will always remain high,because of the deflationary,"limited supply" nature of bitcoin.The BTC market will always move from price bubbles to price crashes in the long run.

[figmentofmyass]

I don't think gold comparisons are very valid. For starters its supply is not predictable nor does not have a hard cap.

the rate at which supply is increasing is fairly predictable though, like bitcoin. i've also been reading that peak gold is expected to occur soon. a permanently depleting inflation rate would act similarly to a hard cap.

let's face it. there's never been a math-based commodity before or any such thing as a hard cap on supply. but markets are still markets and speculators will still speculate. i don't see why one scarce, speculative commodity would behave so differently from another scarce, speculative commodity.