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Author Topic: a continued inspection of China  (Read 1000 times)
zhangweiwu
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March 11, 2014, 12:26:01 PM
Last edit: March 12, 2014, 03:39:49 AM by zhangweiwu
 #1

I endeavoured to travel hundreds miles away to Xi'an for last weekend's bitcoin event ( www.yangyang.tv hosted it). Given time I'd write a full report, but in this forum of speculators a few words of sentiments should suffice.

  • First I wish to warn speculators of a possible major fiduciary obligation violation in China in bitcoin circle, can be as early as this year 2014. This is through observation of the death-match-ready culture I occassionally smell (read my other article for culture background). I am not sure if bitcoin circle's event would splash an impact though - Chinese are now more frantic about knock-off altcoins.
  • Second: larceny in China is to cause more damage to trust than the same level of security breach would normally cause, because exchanges are playing banks' role. Although everybody are apparently worried about fund security, no one in the event knows electrum and amory. Some use bitcoin client as-is; most keep the money on the exchange and use them as a bank. Most major exchanges offer wallets, but they are only as trust-worthy as the exchanges. Some in the meeting argues that keeping the coins on exchange accounts may be safer than in bitcoin-qt, because few have the resource to secure their own PC (they feel helpless against viruses).
  • In the event, any time not spent on discussing security and mining, are spent on discussing margin trading. 3 of the 4 top Chinese exchanges are offering margin trading: they are: chbtc, huobi, okcoin. The one not offering margin trading, but instead offered liquidity rebate (a measurement to stablize price, opposite to margin trading) is BTCChina.
  • To my surprise, only a few are geeks, and that many non-geek participants in the Xi'an event look as if they scrapes by. To think these are the ones engaging margin trading frightens me.
  • Understand that China has been ruled by a strong government for a long time. The resistance towards centralized power usually is the highest in early stage, later they are tamed. I don't feel any one wish to sign praise to bitcoin for its decentralization nature. Their is no hatred for the government, banks, society: they just want to be allowed to grow rich and bitcoin is the means.

I am only covering a free-to-enter meeting in Xi'an (not nearly as cosmopolitan as Shanghai). The upcoming event in Beijing ( http://www.globalbtcsummit.com ) should offer a chance to have a good look at other players who can afford to pay the 3,800CNY entrance fee (around one bitcoin at the current price), if I can manage to see through Beijing's trademark smog.

Big change from 2013: in the past most exchanges run incognito like BTC-E, now most run under a company umbrella.

I should not be surprised if interest returns to Bitcoin later this year, as mercurial as Chinese players may be.

P.S. In this forum I have fine records of previous speculative opinions. e.g. I bet the price had the gloomy outlook built-in before the Chinese-new-year's dead-line issued by central government, and speculators are wait for nothing. It turns out the price is indeed flat in the days around the deadline.

My (old) column about Bitcoin & China: http://bitcoinblog.de/tag/zhangweiwuengl/
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Alonzo Ewing
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March 11, 2014, 08:21:41 PM
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So is it true that the Chinese govt has given implied approval of Bitcoin trading/buying/selling given the fact that the exchanges are seeing heavy volume?
threecats
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March 11, 2014, 08:26:16 PM
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Thanks for the information, please keep posting!
Siegfried
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March 12, 2014, 12:19:31 AM
 #4

I endeavoured to travel hundreds miles away to Xi'an for last weekend's bitcoin event ( www.yangyang.tv hosted it). Given time I'd write a full report, but in this forum of speculators a few words of sentiments should suffice.

  • First I wish to warn speculators of a possible major fiduciary obligation violation in China in bitcoin circle, can be as early as this year 2014. This is through observation of the death-match-ready culture I occassionally smell (read my other article for culture background). I am not sure if bitcoin circle's event would splash an impact though - Chinese are now more frantic about knock-off altcoins.
  • Second: larceny in China is to cause more damage to trust than the same level of security breach would normally cause, because exchanges are playing banks' role. Although everybody are apparently worried about fund security, no one in the event knows electrum and amory. Some use bitcoin client as-is; most keep the money on the exchange and use them as a bank. Most major exchanges offer wallets, but they are only as trust-worthy as the exchanges. Some in the meeting argues that keeping the coins on exchange accounts may be safer, because few have the resource to secure their own PC (they feel helpless against viruses).
  • In the event, any time not spent on discussing security and mining, are spent on discussing margin trading. 3 of the 4 top Chinese exchanges are offering margin trading: they are: chbtc, huobi, okcoin. The one not offering margin trading, but instead offered liquidity rebate (a measurement to stablize price, opposite to margin trading) is BTCChina.
  • To my surprise, only a few are geeks, and that many non-geek participants in the Xi'an event look as if they scrapes by. To think these are the ones engaging margin trading frightens me.
  • Understand that China has been ruled by a strong government for a long time. The resistance towards centralized power usually is the highest in early stage, later they are tamed. I don't feel any one wish to sign praise to bitcoin for its decentralization nature, and no one hates big banks. They don't hate, they just want to be allowed to grow rich and bitcoin is the means.

I am only covering a free-to-enter meeting in Xi'an (not nearly as cosmopolitan as Shanghai). The upcoming event in Beijing ( http://www.globalbtcsummit.com ) should offer a chance to have a good look at other players who can afford to pay the 3,800CNY entrance fee (around one bitcoin at the current price), if I can manage to see through Beijing's trademark smog.

Big change from 2013: in the past most exchanges run incognito like BTC-E, now most run under a company umbrella.

I should not be surprised if interest returns to Bitcoin later this year, as mercurial as Chinese players may be.

Can you please explain what you mean by "only a few are geeks, and that many non-geek participants in the Xi'an event look as if they scrapes by"?
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March 12, 2014, 12:36:08 AM
 #5

Can you please explain what you mean by "only a few are geeks, and that many non-geek participants in the Xi'an event look as if they scrapes by"?

I am not zhangweiwu, who can speak for himself, but I think he means that the demographic was bimodal:  (1) Techies, who are generally above the mean in income and wealth, and (2) gamblers, who are generally below the mean in income and wealth.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
zhangweiwu
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March 12, 2014, 02:06:00 AM
Last edit: March 12, 2014, 03:29:06 AM by zhangweiwu
 #6

I am not zhangweiwu, who can speak for himself, but I think he means that the demographic was bimodal:  (1) Techies, who are generally above the mean in income and wealth, and (2) gamblers, who are generally below the mean in income and wealth.

True. That is my reading. Techies don't consider themselves rich, but that's because they ignores the poor.

My (old) column about Bitcoin & China: http://bitcoinblog.de/tag/zhangweiwuengl/
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March 12, 2014, 02:47:39 AM
 #7

I endeavoured to travel hundreds miles away to Xi'an for last weekend's bitcoin event ( www.yangyang.tv hosted it). Given time I'd write a full report, but in this forum of speculators a few words of sentiments should suffice.

  • First I wish to warn speculators of a possible major fiduciary obligation violation in China in bitcoin circle, can be as early as this year 2014. This is through observation of the death-match-ready culture I occassionally smell (read my other article for culture background). I am not sure if bitcoin circle's event would splash an impact though - Chinese are now more frantic about knock-off altcoins.
  • Second: larceny in China is to cause more damage to trust than the same level of security breach would normally cause, because exchanges are playing banks' role. Although everybody are apparently worried about fund security, no one in the event knows electrum and amory. Some use bitcoin client as-is; most keep the money on the exchange and use them as a bank. Most major exchanges offer wallets, but they are only as trust-worthy as the exchanges. Some in the meeting argues that keeping the coins on exchange accounts may be safer than in bitcoin-qt, because few have the resource to secure their own PC (they feel helpless against viruses).
  • In the event, any time not spent on discussing security and mining, are spent on discussing margin trading. 3 of the 4 top Chinese exchanges are offering margin trading: they are: chbtc, huobi, okcoin. The one not offering margin trading, but instead offered liquidity rebate (a measurement to stablize price, opposite to margin trading) is BTCChina.
  • To my surprise, only a few are geeks, and that many non-geek participants in the Xi'an event look as if they scrapes by. To think these are the ones engaging margin trading frightens me.
  • Understand that China has been ruled by a strong government for a long time. The resistance towards centralized power usually is the highest in early stage, later they are tamed. I don't feel any one wish to sign praise to bitcoin for its decentralization nature. Their is no hatred for the government, banks, society: they just want to be allowed to grow rich and bitcoin is the means.

I am only covering a free-to-enter meeting in Xi'an (not nearly as cosmopolitan as Shanghai). The upcoming event in Beijing ( http://www.globalbtcsummit.com ) should offer a chance to have a good look at other players who can afford to pay the 3,800CNY entrance fee (around one bitcoin at the current price), if I can manage to see through Beijing's trademark smog.

Big change from 2013: in the past most exchanges run incognito like BTC-E, now most run under a company umbrella.

I should not be surprised if interest returns to Bitcoin later this year, as mercurial as Chinese players may be.

I'd like to read more when you have time.
zhangweiwu
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March 12, 2014, 03:38:19 AM
Last edit: March 12, 2014, 02:30:25 PM by zhangweiwu
 #8

So is it true that the Chinese govt has given implied approval of Bitcoin trading/buying/selling given the fact that the exchanges are seeing heavy volume?

It is true that Chinese govt has given implied approval of Bitcoin trading/buying/selling given the fact that most exchanges are operating now under real companies/personages.

About trade volume:

They are major players speaking. In the top-4 exchanges' speakers, 3 of them are either co-founder or CEO, with exception of OKCOIN who sent a customer-service manager to speak.

Out of the top-4 exchange's speakers, one accused their competitors of fake trade volumes, one hinted so. Ironically, the accuser looks terribly untrustworthy. If I am to predict a weak link in the chain, I would bet him (a co-founder of huobi, name's Zhu Jun). This very personage also, in an apparent move to discredit competitors, said that [because no one has the integrity] every company would use customer's money when they are losing the game, only winners can keep fiduciary obligation. The safe way is [not to go with honesty but] to go with the winner - and needless to say his company reports highest trade volume. The audience seems to agree with him under the MtGox saga (they are losing so they decided to violate the trust), not awaring that he is begging the question. What is more interesting is that Mr Zhu's competitiors look admiring him and hoping to get an exuberant bold speaker like him on their side. Very interesting. It takes a westerner's view of the world up-side-down.

My (old) column about Bitcoin & China: http://bitcoinblog.de/tag/zhangweiwuengl/
Siegfried
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March 12, 2014, 04:18:35 AM
 #9

Will you be attending the Beijing Bitcoin Conference?
zhangweiwu
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March 12, 2014, 04:22:34 AM
Last edit: March 12, 2014, 02:33:01 PM by zhangweiwu
 #10

Will you be attending the Beijing Bitcoin Conference?

Expected to be in Beijing around that time anyway, I may pay a visit, but I expect not very fruitful result. The 3,800CNY ticket will frighten off even the rich investors. We (Chinese) watch our wallets tighter than Jews (referring to the legend version of Jews) and we only spend large on displaying social status (buying lux brands and not removing the label). There will not be many people buying entrance (referring to the Chinese sense of "not many people").

Roger Ver is described as being invited to the meeting. For such a down-to-the-earth man I can feel his surprise on seeing only rich investors around.

My (old) column about Bitcoin & China: http://bitcoinblog.de/tag/zhangweiwuengl/
Siegfried
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March 12, 2014, 04:30:53 AM
 #11

Will you be attending the Beijing Bitcoin Conference?

I think I will, but I expect not very fruitful result. I don't mind the 3,800CNY ticket, but I believe this ticket will frighten off even the rich investors, as we Chinese watch our wallets tighter than Jews (referring to the legend version of Jews). There will not be many people buying entrance (referring to the Chinese sense of "not many people").

Maybe we should organize a free conference across the street at the same time for the ordinary people.
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