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Author Topic: Re: Will people come back to gold  (Read 1530 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (6 posts by 6 users deleted.)
LeGaulois
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February 14, 2019, 05:19:45 PM
Merited by suchmoon (4), The Pharmacist (3), magneto (1)
 #1

Let's continue the topic here since it was an interesting discussion but as usual, the shitposters kill any discussion open.
(it's a self-moderated thread)

With the current economy, the fears about the Brexit, Italy, the Sino-American problems and the general pessimism among investors; It looks like Gold is coming back the past months. At the same time, countries like the EU, Japan & China are reducing their investments in the economy,
(it should also reduce demand for the USD?)

Even the Central banks are buying more Gold (+13% from the previous year). Economists predict a dark year for 2019 and it seems a lot of large funds are now buying Gold massively. Especially from Asia and Soviets.

The purchases of Gold by the central banks increased by over 70% last year. It's something that didn't happen since the '60s - '70s and the dissolution of the Bretton Woods agreements. The main reason is to get away from the dollar. Even Iran and its crypto will be backed by Gold for the same reason and to avoid the US sanctions. Even the ETFs increased by something like 200% last year

The global economy is still weak despite what has been done (or not) since 2008. People, countries, central banks started to realize this and cover their ass by turning to Gold

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February 14, 2019, 07:39:40 PM
 #2

I do not know much about the gold-dollar relationship. But I'm interested in the maximum supply of gold. It is a finite resource and can get exhausted like most mineral resources.
Is there any duration period (or estimate) of when the total gold bars could be all mined globally, just as we have with bitcoins?
And how would exhaustion of the metal affect it's market value?

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February 14, 2019, 08:19:57 PM
 #3

I've had mixed feelings about gold for years now and still do.  There seems to be an undertone of impending doom that doesn't seem to be abating in the least, but I'm not sure what's coming.  We had a global financial crisis in 2008 that went on for years; I'm not certain if we're going to get another one or if armageddon is coming, e.g., nuclear war or a severe terrorist strike.  If it's the latter, we need to be buying survival stuff like seeds and land instead of gold. 

I'm not sure what all this buying of gold was on the part of the governments.  That doesn't seem to indicate doomsday, but I don't have an explanation--and I distrust what I read about such things.

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February 14, 2019, 08:33:05 PM
 #4

Who buys gold?
Central banks, Indians, rich Arabs. In Europe, gold is very, very regulated. In some countries, every transaction has to be declared, and sometimes, it's also taxed. It's a bit better in the US, but not by much. Gold also requires you to rent a deposit box at your bank, and it's hugely difficult to travel with. Shares or cryptocurrencies, which you can trade online, are a much smarter choice for the individual.

If you're looking for a trading/lending place,
better avoid Poloniex, as it socializes losses.
Learn more about it on this topic.
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February 14, 2019, 09:01:22 PM
 #5

Russia and Turkey made a lot of gold purchases.. now the states prefer to keep the gold instead of storing the dollar. I think that makes sense. what do  you think?
Yes it make sense since they know the potential value of gold in the future and it can be more than enough for them to generate money. The market situation doesn’t trigger people from coming back to gold, since most of the hodlers are still holding and traders are still active, though gold is more stable I still want to invest on cryptomarket because I think this is more convenient to buy, hold and sell.
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February 14, 2019, 09:13:26 PM
Merited by The Pharmacist (3)
 #6

But I'm interested in the maximum supply of gold. It is a finite resource and can get exhausted like most mineral resources.
I tried to find the answer to this, and was surprised with what I found:

Quote
Goldman Sachs analyst Eugene King took a stab at answering this question last year, estimating we have only “20 years of known mineable reserves of gold.”
Source: https://www.equities.com/news/how-much-gold-is-really-left-to-be-mined (Article from 2016)

This source also says something similar:

Quote
The concern about remaining extractable gold is based on the fact that annual gold mining production is running at over 3200 tonnes per annum (e.g. 3247 tonnes in 2017 according to GFMS), while various metal and geological consultancy estimates put the amount of remaining extractable gold reserves worldwide in the region of 55,000 tonnes. In other words, at current rates of extraction, according to these estimates, known gold reserves worldwide would be depleted in about 17 years.
Source: https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/annual-mine-supply-gold-matter/ (Article from 2018)

So it seems that somewhere around 2035, there will be an end to gold mining, at lest when it comes to conventional methods of mining. By that time we may find other methods, or advance in space exploration, who knows.

How much gold has been mined to date?

Quote
Estimates range from 155,244 tonnes, marginally less than the GFMS figure, to about 16 times that amount - 2.5 million tonnes.
Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-21969100

So, now the math isn't so hard, depending on the number we accept as the actual number of available, already mined gold.

IMO, central banks should switch to bitcoin. There are theories that gold's scarcity was something that made gold so desirable and precious in the first place, and not the other way around. Now that we have bitcoin, do we really need gold any more?
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February 14, 2019, 09:15:03 PM
 #7

It seems to me that people and even states have never turned away from gold. Gold has always been and will be in price. Of course, if, since 1970, the dollar has ceased to be a secure gold and it can be printed uncontrollably by the US government, then the level of confidence in it falls every day. For states, it is better to replenish their gold reserves than to accumulate dollars.

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February 14, 2019, 09:22:05 PM
 #8

I posted the below link in the other thread but will stick in here too.

A very clever indvidual talking about wealth preservation and the criteria he uses:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a4_U6bS-cU4

If you have the time to sit, watch and absorb what the guy is saying it should help position you for the future if you apply the same principles.

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February 14, 2019, 09:28:56 PM
Last edit: February 14, 2019, 09:52:03 PM by markj113
 #9

Who buys gold?
Central banks, Indians, rich Arabs. In Europe, gold is very, very regulated. In some countries, every transaction has to be declared, and sometimes, it's also taxed. It's a bit better in the US, but not by much. Gold also requires you to rent a deposit box at your bank, and it's hugely difficult to travel with. Shares or cryptocurrencies, which you can trade online, are a much smarter choice for the individual.

Your whole post is pretty much misinformation.

What do you mean by gold is well regulated in Europe?  Some of the largest dealers are EU based such as the european mint, silver to go, goldsilver.be.

In the UK you can buy as little or as much as you want pretty much hassle free.  

If you spend over £5k in one transaction or £10k a year with a single dealer you just give them a copy of I.D, this is not submitted to the authorities routinely but just filed away.  If you dont wish to do this there are plenty of dealers out there to spread your buys around.

You can also import gold into the UK tax free.

Not every transaction has to be declared.
Gold is completely tax free to buy
Legal tender gold is capital gains tax free if you sell at a profit
Why do you have to rent a safety deposit box?  $40k gold is the size of a smart phone, very easy to hide away safely.
Allocated gold can be traded as easily as crypto with services such as bullionvault or goldmoney.
Gold can be spent as easily as crypto with Glint
Gold is not difficult to travel with, you just have to declare over a certain value at customs.  There are several members of a precious metals forum I am a member that often travel to europe and bring large volumes of gold and silver back.

Shares or cryptocurrencies serve different purposes to gold as they contain significantly more risk than physical gold (see my above post video link)

I do not know much about the gold-dollar relationship. But I'm interested in the maximum supply of gold. It is a finite resource and can get exhausted like most mineral resources.
Is there any duration period (or estimate) of when the total gold bars could be all mined globally, just as we have with bitcoins?
And how would exhaustion of the metal affect it's market value?

There is still plenty of gold out there to mine e.g. in sea water, deeper down but it comes down to how cost effective it is to mine.  I think most of the low hanging fruit is already gone and with decreasing gold yields, increased energy, people and equipment costs the price will have to climb just to hit break even point.

I think in the not too distant future it will be more profitable to recover gold from e-waste rather than trying to dig it out of the ground.
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February 14, 2019, 10:11:04 PM
 #10

Why do you have to rent a safety deposit box?  $40k gold is the size of a smart phone, very easy to hide away safely.
That's definitely true, and why people pick gold over silver. I think that the main problem for average joes is that they don't trust themselves holding anything of significant value at home, doesn't matter what it is, gold, crypto, jewelry, and so forth.

People feel comfortable having a bank do the work for them, where in some cases they are even insured up to a certain amount. I can have a safety deposit box be insured up to €50k, but that requires total openness.

If you don't want that your bank knows what you store, you can skip the insurance part, but that comes at a risk--frequently you see criminals accurately dig tunnels to where these units are, and we all know how this ends....
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February 15, 2019, 03:22:17 AM
 #11

I think that the main problem for average joes is that they don't trust themselves holding anything of significant value at home, doesn't matter what it is, gold, crypto, jewelry, and so forth.

People feel comfortable having a bank do the work for them, where in some cases they are even insured up to a certain amount. I can have a safety deposit box be insured up to €50k, but that requires total openness.

This is where the banks come in handy: they offer protection for your important assets and you pay them in return. Even I get anxieties when something valuable is stored at my house, be it a piece of a paper memorabilia worth thousands of dollars or just an average techy item amounting to some tens of thousands of dollars. Idk about any other people but I get the heebie-jeebies holding a significant sum in my hands. The banks can do it, and if they promise me that it'll be insured and I just have to pay extra, then so be it. At least I still get something when the item goes poof.

If you don't want that your bank knows what you store, you can skip the insurance part, but that comes at a risk--frequently you see criminals accurately dig tunnels to where these units are, and we all know how this ends....

A great thought and I often wonder how criminals know what to hit on a relatively safe environment. I'm not saying that it could be insider information but yeah, *wink wink*.


--

Here in the Philippines, there's not much interest and craze going on about gold, though it's still somewhat important to know that gold is extremely valuable and will be picked as a currency at any given day by most people, so if in case the massive devaluation of fiat currencies continue, they still have gold to keep them rich. Only the rich guys will buy gold tbh, but the middle class and the proletariat will never  have the chance to touch gold IMO, as these precious metals are usually confined within the reach of the wealthy class and governments.




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February 15, 2019, 07:39:27 AM
 #12

Why do you have to rent a safety deposit box?  $40k gold is the size of a smart phone, very easy to hide away safely.
That's definitely true, and why people pick gold over silver. I think that the main problem for average joes is that they don't trust themselves holding anything of significant value at home, doesn't matter what it is, gold, crypto, jewelry, and so forth.

People feel comfortable having a bank do the work for them, where in some cases they are even insured up to a certain amount. I can have a safety deposit box be insured up to €50k, but that requires total openness.

If you don't want that your bank knows what you store, you can skip the insurance part, but that comes at a risk--frequently you see criminals accurately dig tunnels to where these units are, and we all know how this ends....

Using a safety deposit box introduces another element of risk.

During the recent Cyprus banking crisis with capital controls in place customers were prevented by the banks from accessing their safety deposit boxes.

Always comes back to "if you dont hold it you dont own it", same applies to leaving all your crypto sitting in an exchange.
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February 15, 2019, 06:45:31 PM
 #13

I do not know much about the gold-dollar relationship.

The dollar was backed by Gold until Nixon decided otherwise

I've had mixed feelings about gold for years now and still do.  There seems to be an undertone of impending doom that doesn't seem to be abating in the least, but I'm not sure what's coming.  We had a global financial crisis in 2008 that went on for years; I'm not certain if we're going to get another one or if armageddon is coming, e.g., nuclear war or a severe terrorist strike.  If it's the latter, we need to be buying survival stuff like seeds and land instead of gold. 

I'm not sure what all this buying of gold was on the part of the governments.  That doesn't seem to indicate doomsday, but I don't have an explanation--and I distrust what I read about such things.

The current financial system is like a Ponzi scheme. The only thing that makes it still alive is the machines to print money.
We live on borrowed money, the whole system is based on loans. It can't work indefinitely, like HYIPs there will be a point of collapse. It's almost mathematical.

Governments borrow money for everything, they can't even pay interests, some borrow money just to pay the interests. More debts for the countries and so its citizens.

It hasn't need to be something more dramatic like a world war, it could come just from one bank collapsing, or it hasn't need to be worldwide, it could be just located to an area like America or Europe. As an example, I could name Italy which is a country that could "crash" the whole European economy and perhaps more, banks are in serious troubles there

Who buys gold?
Central banks, Indians, rich Arabs. In Europe, gold is very, very regulated. In some countries, every transaction has to be declared, and sometimes, it's also taxed. It's a bit better in the US, but not by much. Gold also requires you to rent a deposit box at your bank, and it's hugely difficult to travel with. Shares or cryptocurrencies, which you can trade online, are a much smarter choice for the individual.

Right, but people have no problem to declare the gold bought or sold as well to pay the taxes that come with. Especially since you don't sell your gold you just buy and store it. The minimum period before reselling your gold is at least 20 years. And when it comes to taxes people don't really care because 1) if they have a loss, no tax 2) if there is a profit it's a bonus for them (because they did buy gold not to make a profit but to secure their capital)

Russia and Turkey made a lot of gold purchases.. now the states prefer to keep the gold instead of storing the dollar. I think that makes sense. what do  you think?
Yes it make sense since they know the potential value of gold in the future and it can be more than enough for them to generate money. The market situation doesn’t trigger people from coming back to gold, since most of the hodlers are still holding and traders are still active, though gold is more stable I still want to invest on cryptomarket because I think this is more convenient to buy, hold and sell.
You can buy gold at the supermarket, can you buy Bitcoin?



Using a safety deposit box introduces another element of risk.

During the recent Cyprus banking crisis with capital controls in place customers were prevented by the banks from accessing their safety deposit boxes.

Always comes back to "if you dont hold it you dont own it", same applies to leaving all your crypto sitting in an exchange.
That's the reason people rent a safety box in countries where the governments can't take out your gold, like Belgium and Switzerland.

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February 15, 2019, 07:02:49 PM
 #14

snip-
That's the reason people rent a safety box in countries where the governments can't take out your gold, like Belgium and Switzerland.
I like your view of point mate, it's really obvious that people and also the influential people and countries are buying golds because they know that a crisis will happen and currencies will go down and if you will hedge your currency, you would be needing to wait a decade to get back your profit.

Yes, people will come back to gold soon and that is expected. Maybe the war will happen soon between Europe and the U.S or maybe China, Russia, and the U.S. Ain't know yet. Wink




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February 15, 2019, 08:28:44 PM
 #15

Most investors have found gold to be their choice of investment due to the volatility of the cryptocurrency market in recent time and gold have proven to be stable for a long time now, the price and demand for gold have increase in recent time and that is a plus to gold market.

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February 20, 2019, 05:32:56 PM
 #16

We do not know if some investors will come back to investing in gold and I think it will be hard to decision to them if they keep on investing in cryptocurrencuies or they will invest again in gold. We do not know what will happen in the future in cryptocurrencies but if will give a chance to choose I will stay choosing cryptocurrencies which I know also have great potential like gold.

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February 20, 2019, 07:14:03 PM
 #17

Let's continue the topic here since it was an interesting discussion but as usual, the shitposters kill any discussion open.
(it's a self-moderated thread)

With the current economy, the fears about the Brexit, Italy, the Sino-American problems and the general pessimism among investors; It looks like Gold is coming back the past months. At the same time, countries like the EU, Japan & China are reducing their investments in the economy,
(it should also reduce demand for the USD?)

Even the Central banks are buying more Gold (+13% from the previous year). Economists predict a dark year for 2019 and it seems a lot of large funds are now buying Gold massively. Especially from Asia and Soviets.

The purchases of Gold by the central banks increased by over 70% last year. It's something that didn't happen since the '60s - '70s and the dissolution of the Bretton Woods agreements. The main reason is to get away from the dollar. Even Iran and its crypto will be backed by Gold for the same reason and to avoid the US sanctions. Even the ETFs increased by something like 200% last year

The global economy is still weak despite what has been done (or not) since 2008. People, countries, central banks started to realize this and cover their ass by turning to Gold
the Crypto universities are not totally entered into the complete file decrypter they are still using gold and some other investment still now like how they are contributing the crypt of yield so it need no opportunities to get back to the normal position because it already happening here.
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February 20, 2019, 07:24:02 PM
 #18

Maybe the other will back to the gold but i think many people still love crypto because of the huge profit for this. But gold is for the safety investment and for long term. If you will back to gold dont forget the crypto too like bitcoin that make a many people rich.
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February 20, 2019, 07:46:18 PM
 #19

If you're being practical, buy a gold for a good and trusted investment because that's a physical quantity. If there's a huge crisis in our country, lock down of internet, servers shutdown, and war, probably this gold might help me to bring me up again. But if you're really being practical, buy some property, I assure you it's way more better to gain profit.

Maybe the other will back to the gold but i think many people still love crypto because of the huge profit for this. But gold is for the safety investment and for long term. If you will back to gold dont forget the crypto too like bitcoin that make a many people rich.

Loving crypto makes it bad, there is no always huge and stable profit in cryptocurrency. I agree that crypto and gold will make an great evolution to the digital money.

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February 20, 2019, 07:52:56 PM
 #20

As a store value, maybe.

As a cash alternative? That option died the day the internet was invented.

Seriously, how is people gonna use gold? Let's say you bought a computer from amazon. How you gonna pay? Send coins with fedex?

Gold is done with being a cash alternative. And soon dollar will be following.




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