Speculative Market Analysis

[LUCKMCFLY]

Hi all! In view of some important market movements, I would like to share with you the analysis that I can do about the currencies that you want, I am based on the philosophy of Wyckoff and my intention is that we can all make a great feedback on the analysis of the market . I say the why and so we all participate, this is not to give signs or advice of Trading, my intention is that our financial education increases every day more, I am no expert, but I think I can contribute.Well I hope to have published this thread in the correct Topic =)

[exstasie]

Hi all! In view of some important market movements, I would like to share with you the analysis that I can do about the currencies that you want, I am based on the philosophy of Wyckoff and my intention is that we can all make a great feedback on the analysis of the market . I say the why and so we all participate, this is not to give signs or advice of Trading, my intention is that our financial education increases every day more, I am no expert, but I think I can contribute.Well I hope to have published this thread in the correct Topic =)

Analysts are always welcome here.

So what's your outlook on the BTCUSD market, especially longer term? Do you think the current price action fits a particular Wyckoff schematic?

Usually when someone opens a thread like this, they share some analysis.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Hi all! In view of some important market movements, I would like to share with you the analysis that I can do about the currencies that you want, I am based on the philosophy of Wyckoff and my intention is that we can all make a great feedback on the analysis of the market . I say the why and so we all participate, this is not to give signs or advice of Trading, my intention is that our financial education increases every day more, I am no expert, but I think I can contribute.Well I hope to have published this thread in the correct Topic =)

Analysts are always welcome here.

So what's your outlook on the BTCUSD market, especially longer term? Do you think the current price action fits a particular Wyckoff schematic?

Usually when someone opens a thread like this, they share some analysis.

Of course, the long-term analysis is the most recommended, if you see, we are according to Wyckoff in a clear stage of Accumulation, and specifically leaving the Spring Zone, there was a small bullish rally. As I see the market, you see that the market moved with a high volume, which means that even people or operators do not want to sell at that price range, in my opinion it may reach the 4200USD and lower or a small recession to go to the liquidation zones in 3600USD, this from what I see in the Volume, in the long term there may be a lateralization and a possible bullish rally, but I see it somewhat distant, because the idea of ​​the Accumulation Stage is that eliminate the Floating Offer, so that the price rises without Volume, if it starts to rise without Volume we could be facing a possible upward trend.

What do you think about it?

[passwordnow]

Hi there Luckmcfly,

What do you think about next year? we are about to head the next halving around May 2020. Can you give your full take on it? I'm long on bitcoin and I'm sure that everyone does here and so you are. I want to feel the excitement and want to hear words coming from an analyst like you.

What's your analysis on it before and after the halving occurs?

[LUCKMCFLY]

Hi there Luckmcfly,

What do you think about next year? we are about to head the next halving around May 2020. Can you give your full take on it? I'm long on bitcoin and I'm sure that everyone does here and so you are. I want to feel the excitement and want to hear words coming from an analyst like you.

What's your analysis on it before and after the halving occurs?

Hello @passwordnow good next year I see it very good, I think that when we review millionaire portfolios, the majority of Strong Hands hope to at least accumulate between 70 and 80% of Bitcoin .. If you are long, be careful, remember that these movements are double-edged weapons, as I say in 4200USD if it arrives, I'm sure many will go into Long and put their Stop Loss in 3800, because it is creating a good pull of liquidity there, and most of the Operators of A lot of money they know, and they can throw a Short to hunt those Stop Loss (Buy Cheap) to raise the price and get a profit from that Trade ... The idea of ​​the Accumulation Phase is to end the Floating Offer, right now demand and if the Demand is greater than the Offer the price goes up ... the important thing of all this is to understand that the majority of the market is moved by the emotions of the people, and the adrenaline is something fascinating, in this the way to understand the market, now when you see that The price of BTC goes up without Volume is a good indication, because it is telling us indirectly that there is no floating offer and is preparing for a good bullish rally.

[passwordnow]

Hi there Luckmcfly,

What do you think about next year? we are about to head the next halving around May 2020. Can you give your full take on it? I'm long on bitcoin and I'm sure that everyone does here and so you are. I want to feel the excitement and want to hear words coming from an analyst like you.

What's your analysis on it before and after the halving occurs?

Hello @passwordnow good next year I see it very good, I think that when we review millionaire portfolios, the majority of Strong Hands hope to at least accumulate between 70 and 80% of Bitcoin .. If you are long, be careful, remember that these movements are double-edged weapons, as I say in 4200USD if it arrives, I'm sure many will go into Long and put their Stop Loss in 3800, because it is creating a good pull of liquidity there, and most of the Operators of A lot of money they know, and they can throw a Short to hunt those Stop Loss (Buy Cheap) to raise the price and get a profit from that Trade ... The idea of ​​the Accumulation Phase is to end the Floating Offer, right now demand and if the Demand is greater than the Offer the price goes up ... the important thing of all this is to understand that the majority of the market is moved by the emotions of the people, and the adrenaline is something fascinating, in this the way to understand the market, now when you see that The price of BTC goes up without Volume is a good indication, because it is telling us indirectly that there is no floating offer and is preparing for a good bullish rally.

Great read! Thanks for that analysis that you have shared. Don't worry about me, I don't have any plans of selling around $4,200. I'm aiming higher though I'm not trying to become greedier again like I did last time. I just feel that we're going to get there soon, I like the last part that we're going for a good bullish rally. Like the other analysis that I've read, are you also considering that within the next months/years institutions are going to join the market?

[LUCKMCFLY]

Hi there Luckmcfly,

What do you think about next year? we are about to head the next halving around May 2020. Can you give your full take on it? I'm long on bitcoin and I'm sure that everyone does here and so you are. I want to feel the excitement and want to hear words coming from an analyst like you.

What's your analysis on it before and after the halving occurs?

Hello @passwordnow good next year I see it very good, I think that when we review millionaire portfolios, the majority of Strong Hands hope to at least accumulate between 70 and 80% of Bitcoin .. If you are long, be careful, remember that these movements are double-edged weapons, as I say in 4200USD if it arrives, I'm sure many will go into Long and put their Stop Loss in 3800, because it is creating a good pull of liquidity there, and most of the Operators of A lot of money they know, and they can throw a Short to hunt those Stop Loss (Buy Cheap) to raise the price and get a profit from that Trade ... The idea of ​​the Accumulation Phase is to end the Floating Offer, right now demand and if the Demand is greater than the Offer the price goes up ... the important thing of all this is to understand that the majority of the market is moved by the emotions of the people, and the adrenaline is something fascinating, in this the way to understand the market, now when you see that The price of BTC goes up without Volume is a good indication, because it is telling us indirectly that there is no floating offer and is preparing for a good bullish rally.

Great read! Thanks for that analysis that you have shared. Don't worry about me, I don't have any plans of selling around $4,200. I'm aiming higher though I'm not trying to become greedier again like I did last time. I just feel that we're going to get there soon, I like the last part that we're going for a good bullish rally. Like the other analysis that I've read, are you also considering that within the next months/years institutions are going to join the market?

I think so, there are some institutions that play an important role in the market, in fact, there are many operators that have enough money and that operate. If you look carefully, there are many robots that keep the market and at this moment in my way. to see the trade, I do not see any entry, because you are in Long, keep the entrance and remember to make a profit, the market is very benevolent, it will give you the chance to win even if you see that you are coming. . The important thing is to have some patience, the big operators have time as an ally.

[passwordnow]

I think so, there are some institutions that play an important role in the market, in fact, there are many operators that have enough money and that operate. If you look carefully, there are many robots that keep the market and at this moment in my way. to see the trade, I do not see any entry, because you are in Long, keep the entrance and remember to make a profit, the market is very benevolent, it will give you the chance to win even if you see that you are coming. . The important thing is to have some patience, the big operators have time as an ally.

Alright, though the market is trying to remove my patience I'm trying to be more patient and that's why I decided to get on the long run. No regrets whatever the outcome would be. It takes time for the market to take these institutions and other big players to join the party. I'll put your advice on my mind that I will try to make some profit if I ever see some window of it. Yeah, I'm in long term holding but I'm free also to take out some cash whenever the market displays a perfect current price.

[marcbitcoins]

Well, even do many crypto users are already tired of analysis after a long more than year of waiting then still i believe that some analysis and predictions are still good as long as it will favor the welfare of our investments. So i say this is better than spreading FUD that it will just make the market worst.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Well, even do many crypto users are already tired of analysis after a long more than year of waiting then still i believe that some analysis and predictions are still good as long as it will favor the welfare of our investments. So i say this is better than spreading FUD that it will just make the market worst.

You are absolutely right, at this time the market has gained much more attention, because the state of lateralization kept many operators and traders to the expectation, these movements are very positive, they make the castles in the air appear again in people and know that this market has a lot to offer.

[magneto]

I think so, there are some institutions that play an important role in the market, in fact, there are many operators that have enough money and that operate.

I do think that institutional investors will play a role in fuelling the next bull market.

However, how large or small this role is is still unclear, and that will ultimately influence price movement as well.

Personally I believe that right now we are still in an accumulation zone. Smart money should be buying in instead of selling off. I don't necessarily see a very large bullish outbreak in the first half of the year though, because markets are still mostly bearish and we see that the $4k resistance is quite strong.

The magnitude of the next bull market I think will be significantly less than the previous one because of the extent to which markets have matured. I don't think price swings will be as large. But still, this is an excellent time to buy.

[BitHodler]

I do think that institutional investors will play a role in fuelling the next bull market.

They always have. People assume that they are in before the institutions, but that's not the case when it comes to the majority of the people here. The only difference are their allocations.

As more time goes by, and Bitcoin has shown its solidity, institutions and other deep pockets feel more comfortable allocating more of their portfolio to Bitcoin, and this will continue till Bitcoin is a mature enough asset.

I think the main factor for the next bull run is that there are way more fiat entry points right now than was the case back in 2017, and the exchanges themselves have gone through the necessary upgrades as well.

[Idrisu]

Hi all! In view of some important market movements, I would like to share with you the analysis that I can do about the currencies that you want, I am based on the philosophy of Wyckoff and my intention is that we can all make a great feedback on the analysis of the market . I say the why and so we all participate, this is not to give signs or advice of Trading, my intention is that our financial education increases every day more, I am no expert, but I think I can contribute.Well I hope to have published this thread in the correct Topic =)

I really did not understand what you really mean sir but our education increases when we are ready to open our mind to new ideas about trading.  We have no experts in cryptocurrencies market as we are all still making some loses.  I believe that collectively we can really learn something new.

[figmentofmyass]

What do you think about it?

i suppose something like that is possible but it feels a bit forced. in log scale, it doesn't look like a proper accumulation bottom. it just feels too early and unconfirmed to declare a spring based on a 35% move and subsequent consolidation. we need a few months more to fill in the chart and confirm.

i think we could still be phase A or B. this rally could be the "automatic rally" in either phase. (meaning the final low and spring have not happened yet)

[LUCKMCFLY]

What do you think about it?

i suppose something like that is possible but it feels a bit forced. in log scale, it doesn't look like a proper accumulation bottom. it just feels too early and unconfirmed to declare a spring based on a 35% move and subsequent consolidation. we need a few months more to fill in the chart and confirm.

i think we could still be phase A or B. this rally could be the "automatic rally" in either phase. (meaning the final low and spring have not happened yet)

Well you're right, we're in the Accumulation Phase, we are, I put "Spring Zone" because in many of the configurations of Advanced Wyckoff it seems similar, of course, we must wait a few months to enter the Clear Range of Accumulation .... but it is very likely that they will continue testing some points, until the end of the floating offer (which is the intention of the Accumulation phase.) Thank you very much for your valuable contribution.

[exstasie]

Of course, the long-term analysis is the most recommended, if you see, we are according to Wyckoff in a clear stage of Accumulation, and specifically leaving the Spring Zone, there was a small bullish rally.

Interesting chart. Personally, I don't think we're so far into the accumulation schematic yet. The crash from $6K obviously entered the market into a new trading range, so if we are really in an accumulation schematic, we're in the very early stages.

This is my current guess as to where we are: https://www.tradingview.com/x/l8BeQtyp

It's not my chart but it's one I agree with. It suggests the selling climax is done and we're in the AR of Phase A, which means we may not see the Spring until late this year or early 2020.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Of course, the long-term analysis is the most recommended, if you see, we are according to Wyckoff in a clear stage of Accumulation, and specifically leaving the Spring Zone, there was a small bullish rally.

Interesting chart. Personally, I don't think we're so far into the accumulation schematic yet. The crash from $6K obviously entered the market into a new trading range, so if we are really in an accumulation schematic, we're in the very early stages.

This is my current guess as to where we are: https://www.tradingview.com/x/l8BeQtyp

It's not my chart but it's one I agree with. It suggests the selling climax is done and we're in the AR of Phase A, which means we may not see the Spring until late this year or early 2020.

It's a very good analysis, of course Fibonacci uses, what happens is that for me, the accumulation phase and I have it established, there represents a reaccumulation, is what they are considering, in my opinion if I continue to see it as a "Zone Spring ", I'm based on one of Wyckoff's many advanced graphics.

[YuginKadoya]

I highly anticipated the price movement of BTC and other cryptocurrencies that I have my eyes on, And I really think that the price could really turn this year and goes back to $2000 perhaps at the end of this year but that is just a speculation and we can rather see something different to turn the tables away from that prediction, Well I am saying this because I am basing my analysis in this site

https://longforecast.com/bitcoin-price-predictions-2017-2018-2019-btc-to-usd,

But surely we can not just stick the prediction in it, because I have seen the price have changed after the price of bitcoin moves in a different direction the forecast have shown, So I am only looking at it for a guide.

[LUCKMCFLY]

I highly anticipated the price movement of BTC and other cryptocurrencies that I have my eyes on, And I really think that the price could really turn this year and goes back to $2000 perhaps at the end of this year but that is just a speculation and we can rather see something different to turn the tables away from that prediction, Well I am saying this because I am basing my analysis in this site

https://longforecast.com/bitcoin-price-predictions-2017-2018-2019-btc-to-usd,

But surely we can not just stick the prediction in it, because I have seen the price have changed after the price of bitcoin moves in a different direction the forecast have shown, So I am only looking at it for a guide.

Wow is a prediction, with due respect, I have nothing against predictions, but it would be much smarter to wait for some important movement to occur and thus react.

According to what I have studied in books, it is much better to react than predict, if you predict a movement is practically betting, and the idea of ​​understanding the market, is to have the ability to react to enter or build a position and not bring an unexpected surprise , because it is the easiest way to lose.

 There are often movements that move the market abruptly and volatilely, this Bitcoin market moves differently from the stock market in the Stock Market or Forex, but the Bitcoin market is much more exciting !!

Remember that in predicting, you could at risk the money that we should value, is our ticket to success.

I do not believe much in predictions or signals, most of them take them out only from technical analysis, I mean strips, triangles and a series of tools used by the chartists and lovers of that branch. But they leave aside the most important, and it is the analysis of Supply-Demand, how Strong Hands think, the traps they can place, and many people fall outside the deadlines and therefore lose.

[mirakal]

Good and honest answers mate, thank you for sharing your knowledge with us.
As an investor, I just want to know on how much is the price of BTC by the end of the year, or what will be the ATH for this year alone?

News like JP Morgan getting into crypto and Samsung adding crypto wallets in their next phone release, what would be the effect in the market for long term?