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Author Topic: How much Bitcoin will be circulated within 2030?  (Read 250 times)
RapTarX
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February 21, 2019, 07:39:59 AM
Last edit: February 21, 2019, 10:43:22 AM by RapTarX
 #1

As title says, how much BTC will be in circulation within 2030?
The current circulation is about 1800 bitcoin per day. How can I calculate the possible circulation within 2030?
I have come to know that within May 2020, the rewards per block will be halved and eventually, there will be 900 bitcoin in circulation per day. So, when will be the next halving?
Is there any calculator which help you to calculate the circulation of BTC?

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February 21, 2019, 08:00:45 AM
 #2

How can I calculate the possible circulation within 2030?

there are calculators online and websites that track halving and stuff like that and i am sure you will find them if you do a google search.

as for the mathematics behind it, things work this way:
- difficulty is set in a way that on average we see 1 block every 10 minutes on average. and when you calculate in long term you can use that approximation because the error in that is small.
- supply is distributed in form of block rewards and that is set in a way that it started from 50 btc/block and halves every 210000 block.

so you first calculate how many blocks are going to be found until a desired year (like 2030) starting from 2009 then break it into 210000 blocks and start multiplying each portion with appropriate reward:
- first 210000 * 50
- second 210000 * 25
...
- remainder (smaller than 210000) * respective reward
then add all of them together.

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February 21, 2019, 08:13:38 AM
 #3

As title says, how much BTC will be in circulation within 2030?
The current circulation is about 1800 bitcoin per day. How can I calculate the possible circulation within 2030?
I have come to know that within May 2020, the rewards per block will be halved and eventually, there will be 900 bitcoin mined per day. So, when will be the next halving?
Is there any calculator which help you to calculate the circulation of BTC?

I think you are confusing circulation with mining production. They are not related. Bitcoins aren't consumed, so the bitcoins mined yesterday are in circulation today, too.

Anyway, this page shows the production schedule: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

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February 21, 2019, 08:24:53 AM
 #4

I think you are confusing circulation with mining production. They are not related. Bitcoins aren't consumed, so the bitcoins mined yesterday are in circulation today, too.

Anyway, this page shows the production schedule: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply
Nope, I'm not confused. I am few a bit unfamiliar with the terms/words. A few mistakes are there in my presentation in OP.
Thank you for the link. This is what exactly I was looking for.
.......
- remainder (smaller than 210000) * respective reward
then add all of them together.
As per the above formula, the circulation should be 20500000 approx after 2030. Is it correct?

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February 21, 2019, 12:11:21 PM
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 #5

As per the above formula, the circulation should be 20500000 approx after 2030. Is it correct?

If you look at data posted on that link from odolvlobo, check second table and halving numbers. In year 2020 is 4 halving and in 2028 is 6 halving which is start with 20343750 bitcoins, and end with 20671875 bitcoins on 7 halving 2032, so you are right with your assumption.

Circulation of coins is only informative data, we all know that there will never be 21 million bitcoins in circulation - they are on blockchain, but private keys which control them are lost / destroyed over the years. Some speculation say that 3 to 5 million coins are losted so far, but it is almost impossible to determine that number with any certainty.

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February 21, 2019, 02:16:36 PM
 #6

Some speculation say that 3 to 5 million coins are losted so far, but it is almost impossible to determine that number with any certainty.
Yes, I had created a thread to have some valid discussion here about the lost Bitcoins. Approx. 4 million is lost and a minimum of 5 million will be lost after all the 21 million BTC get mined. My thread- https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5108242.0
But it's good for the bitcoin community who owns bitcoin, it was told by satoshi.
“Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more. Think of it as a donation to everyone.” said by Satoshi.

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February 21, 2019, 02:23:45 PM
 #7

what is certain is that the turnover of the bitcoin currency will be even greater, someday bitcoin will be used more as a payment currency for financial transactions than as an investment. thus the volume of bitcoin transactions will increase even greater. I am optimistic that a financial ecosystem will be created that can have such great capabilities in handling various financial transactions.
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February 21, 2019, 02:28:31 PM
 #8

by 2030 we can expect btc  circulation would be around 18 millions btc as per the per market and 11 years ahead bitcoin  would be short of 3 millions less in circulation
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February 21, 2019, 02:37:57 PM
 #9

It is not known how much bitcoin are permanently lost but the amount is in the millions.  So when you see the listed circulating supply on coinmarketcap it is not the actual true amount.  People are still losing coins everyday because of bitcoin owners dying with no relatives to access their keys.
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February 21, 2019, 03:27:35 PM
 #10

i dont know about it, but i think that in 2030 all bitcoin in the world will already mined, so 21 Miliion bitcoin alraedy mined. which is it will give the decision is the bitcoin can rise up more and more or it will decreasing because they lost the popularity

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February 21, 2019, 03:58:29 PM
 #11

i dont know about it, but i think that in 2030 all bitcoin in the world will already mined, so 21 Miliion bitcoin alraedy mined.

and this is not right.
The difficulty (and halfing and supply) cannot be tricked that way that all is mined in 2030.

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February 21, 2019, 04:20:42 PM
 #12

by 2030 we can expect btc  circulation would be around 18 millions btc as per the per market and 11 years ahead bitcoin  would be short of 3 millions less in circulation
How did you come up with 3 million? If you've read the first few posts, you know that he's not asking how many bitcoins are in circulation not including lost bitcoins.


So when you see the listed circulating supply on coinmarketcap it is not the actual true amount.  People are still losing coins everyday because of bitcoin owners dying with no relatives to access their keys.
OP knows there are lost bitcoins and he even have a seperate thread for it

i dont know about it, but i think that in 2030 all bitcoin in the world will already mined, so 21 Miliion bitcoin alraedy mined.
and this is not right.
The difficulty (and halfing and supply) cannot be tricked that way that all is mined in 2030.
Technically it can be changed but that would result in a hard fork and it won't be called Bitcoin anymore.
  

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February 21, 2019, 04:22:20 PM
 #13

I am thinking close to 90 - 100 billion given the current circumstance. It could be at least 5 times more if it picked up pace to even 50% of what it was in 2018 january.
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February 21, 2019, 09:23:18 PM
 #14

For me,  I feel its inconclusive and can be hard to state because the amount of Bitcoin that  will circulate in the nearest future will have to do with how much it adoption and acceptation will be in the future.
So it's okay to say that that the amount of circulating  Bitcoin will double or triple if it's adoption increase than what it is now. Or might reduce if it has low adoption.

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February 21, 2019, 10:05:25 PM
 #15

Bitcoin circulation every 4 years will always decrease from half, and that will definitely happen to reduce the circulation of bitcoin, and I think after 2030 the circulation of bitcoin will be around 225.

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February 21, 2019, 10:50:32 PM
 #16

i dont know about it, but i think that in 2030 all bitcoin in the world will already mined, so 21 Miliion bitcoin alraedy mined. which is it will give the decision is the bitcoin can rise up more and more or it will decreasing because they lost the popularity
You just think but obviously havent done any research before saying that. I will take at least 100 more years until all bitcoin are going to be mined and that's because the difficulty of mining increases with each block that is created.
Regarding to OP, the circulation of bitcoin will most likely drop in time and that's because once bitcoin it's lost then it's gone for good and it's impossible to recover it. So what you should expect within 2030 is a smaller circulation of bitcoin than now.

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February 21, 2019, 11:18:04 PM
 #17

i dont know about it, but i think that in 2030 all bitcoin in the world will already mined, so 21 Miliion bitcoin alraedy mined.

and this is not right.
The difficulty (and halfing and supply) cannot be tricked that way that all is mined in 2030.

With current difficulty it will take more than 100 years to mine all bitcoins in the world. After the halving has rate will increase and mining rewards will decrease periodically. After this event,low bitcoin supply will lead to increased prices.There is miscalculation in OP's argument.

 
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February 22, 2019, 12:57:36 AM
 #18


With current difficulty it will take more than 100 years to mine all bitcoins in the world. After the halving has rate will increase and mining rewards will decrease periodically. After this event,low bitcoin supply will lead to increased prices.There is miscalculation in OP's argument.

I thought mining difficulty has already reduced because many btc miners were now quitting and moving unto other cryptos that are easier to mine  .  and also the mining dificulty could also depend on the mining hardware that you are using  and the factors sorround you  . 

But one thing is for sure .  the longer the bitcoin existed  , the more the supply that is produced and the price also grow bigger because the adoption is also growing .
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February 22, 2019, 04:04:47 AM
 #19

Bitcoin circulation every 4 years will always decrease from half, and that will definitely happen to reduce the circulation of bitcoin, and I think after 2030 the circulation of bitcoin will be around 225.
Is it true? then whether bitcoin can return to the way it used to when the circulation continues to fall.
There will be many miners who choose to stop mining bitcoin if this is the case, and the bitcoin forecast will develop 10 years later will be lost


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February 22, 2019, 04:35:06 AM
 #20

I think after 2030 the circulation of bitcoin will be around 225.
The total supply of BTC- 21 million. What did you mean through 225?

Is it true? then whether bitcoin can return to the way it used to when the circulation continues to fall.
There will be many miners who choose to stop mining bitcoin if this is the case, and the bitcoin forecast will develop 10 years later will be lost
Bitcoin halving occurs every 210000 blocks. Current reward per block is 12.5 bitcoin. The next halving will occur in May 2020 and reward per block will be 6.25

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