This isn't a price poll, but rather a How sure are you that BTC will succeed?

[mskryxz]

How sure are you that BTC will succeed?

Let me elaborate.

Succeed as in it will reach $5,000 or greater and it will reach main stream adoption.
As for figures, let us just say at least over 20 Million users from the current estimates 2-3 million users as of March 2014.
As for time frame, lets say within the next 2-3 years from this post's date.

[exocytosis]

I'm pretty sure it won't succeed.

Reason: Lack of reliable, secure, user-friendly infrastructure. The Average Joe will stay far away from BTC.
And several (more) governments will ban it.

[RodeoX]

wow, 25% think bitcoin has less than a 10% chance of succeeding? I thought it had succeeded when it reached parity with the dollar.  I'm utterly floored at how far we have come in just a few years. This is happening so much faster than the last time people said "It won't work, It's to complicated and it will be banned by the government."

Glad I didn't listen then either. Instead I went with my gut and started investing in this "silly geek toy". Perhaps you have even heard of the Internet?

EDIT: I see that the numbers are changing.

[av123]

wow, 25% think bitcoin has less than a 10% chance of succeeding? I thought it had succeeded when it reached parity with the dollar.  I'm utterly floored at how far we have come in just a few years. This is happening so much faster than the last time people said "It won't work, It's to complicated and it will be banned by the government."

Glad I didn't listen then either. Instead I went with my gut and started investing in this "silly geek toy". Perhaps you have even heard of the Internet?

Many people on here now became interested in bitcoin during the last bubble. That probably explains some of the pessimism as the price has fallen since the last peak. I haven't let that phase me as adoption is the thing to look at IMO.

[gentlemand]

How sure are you that BTC will succeed?

Let me elaborate.

Succeed as in it will reach $5,000 or greater and it will reach main stream adoption.
As for figures, let us just say at least over 20 Million users from the current estimates 2-3 million users as of March 2014.
As for time frame, lets say within the next 2-3 years from this post's date.

That's a pretty modest set of parameters for success. It can pull that off with ease even with the current creaky infrastructure. Some seriously slick stuff is on the way to replace it, though.

[Ibian]

I'm pretty sure it won't succeed.

Reason: Lack of reliable, secure, user-friendly infrastructure. The Average Joe will stay far away from BTC.
And several (more) governments will ban it.

The blockchain is reliable and secure. Wallets and online payment is more userfriendly that plastic cards. Local bans only matter if you happen to live in said locality, and then only if you willingly choose to follow regulations.

Can I have some of your shit? Seems like it's good.

[kkaspar]

I think that bitcoin has about 1-2 bubbles left in it. One cause of south/central-America and the other one because of high hopes and promises, that bitcoin will succeed with ETF. After that there will be probably a new digital currency with better quality, that takes over.

[threecats]

There is a general deepening of the reverberations of BTC at this point.  And like lobsters in the pot most of us in the inner circles i think don't really credit how fast the temperature is rising. To very important items just today, the NY exchange decision, which = NY throwing down against London, and this: http://www.coindesk.com/dc-veterans-jim-harper-amy-wiess-join-bitcoin-foundation/  some serious weight being brought to bear in washington. Cato Institute. Former White House deputy press secretary.

This shit is going down.

[exocytosis]

I'm pretty sure it won't succeed.

Reason: Lack of reliable, secure, user-friendly infrastructure. The Average Joe will stay far away from BTC.
And several (more) governments will ban it.

The blockchain is reliable and secure. Wallets and online payment is more userfriendly that plastic cards. Local bans only matter if you happen to live in said locality, and then only if you willingly choose to follow regulations.

Can I have some of your shit? Seems like it's good.

BTC service providers have proven to be unreliable. A lot of them end up running away with the funds of their customers -- or they let hackers do it. (And they get away with it, since there is no way to effectively press charges against them. There is no legal precedent in this area yet. Ownership of coins is hard to prove, etc.) To mitigate the risk of theft, BTC users have to store their funds in paper wallets and the like. However, stuff like paper wallets aren't user-friendly enough to be adopted by the mainstream.  

Have a look at this: http://falkvinge.net/2014/02/10/placing-your-crypto-wealth-in-cold-storage-installing-armory-on-ubuntu/

Is that something you expect the Average Joe to accomplish? Is that user-friendly?

Also: The media ain't suddenly gonna start portraying BTC in a positive light. The Average Joe believes what he reads/hears in the mainstream media.

But I do, of course, believe that some form of cryptocurrency may achieve somewhat widespread adoption in the future. However, this will be a currency co-opted by governments/banks, or created and controlled by the big banks.

[threecats]

totally agree with you, the usability barriers are ridiculous for average folk. but average joe won't matter in the near term. its the big boys who see the bottom line that will be hitting the bait.

second market has been buying a couple hundred every day like clockwork through all the shit this last month. read them runes.

[Ibian]

I'm pretty sure it won't succeed.

Reason: Lack of reliable, secure, user-friendly infrastructure. The Average Joe will stay far away from BTC.
And several (more) governments will ban it.

The blockchain is reliable and secure. Wallets and online payment is more userfriendly that plastic cards. Local bans only matter if you happen to live in said locality, and then only if you willingly choose to follow regulations.

Can I have some of your shit? Seems like it's good.

BTC service providers have proven to be unreliable. A lot of them end up running away with the funds of their customers -- or they let hackers do it. To mitigate the risk of theft, BTC users have to store their funds in paper wallets and the like. However, stuff like paper wallets aren't user-friendly enough to be adopted by the mainstream.  

Have a look at this: http://falkvinge.net/2014/02/10/placing-your-crypto-wealth-in-cold-storage-installing-armory-on-ubuntu/

Is that something you expect the Average Joe to accomplish? Is that user-friendly?

Also: The media ain't suddenly gonna start portraying BTC in a positive light. The Average Joe believes what he reads/hears in the mainstream media.

Paper wallets are not a requirement. In fact I want nothing to do with them. I keep my coins in an ordinary wallet on a laptop. All of them. The primary threat is user error, or in laymens terms, stupidity.

Average Cypriot Joe believed their money was safe in the bank. They learned otherwise. So will the rest of us.

And screw ubuntu, seriously. Focus on what the majority uses instead.

[the_sunship]

i'd like to know some reasons for the pessimism. The BTCtrain keeps chugging along no matter what seems to befall it as far as I can tell. After going through 3 crashes and seeing this Phoenix rise again and again, I don't see how this gets stopped. Sure, we need some time to develop more security, better exchanges, easier user interfaces, etc. but the incentive and enthusiasm is there and it's only growing as far as I can tell.

[RodeoX]

i'd like to know some reasons for the pessimism. The BTCtrain keeps chugging along no matter what seems to befall it as far as I can tell. After going through 3 crashes and seeing this Phoenix rise again and again, I don't see how this gets stopped. Sure, we need some time to develop more security, better exchanges, easier user interfaces, etc. but the incentive and enthusiasm is there and it's only growing as far as I can tell.

Those are the things I look at. So many people get sidetracked with "Gox did this or that" or "MOSAD is taking over bitcoin!". Let them play out their fantasy. You and me will clean their clock at the exchanges when they trade on fear and rumor. 
Is bitcoin still the fastest, safest, and cheapest way to send money anywhere? As long as the answer is yes, I'm in!

[mskryxz]

Thanks for the turn out on votes.

I myself voted 91-100%.

Seeing Bitcoin still standing even after Mt.Gox declares bankruptcy is further proof that Bitcoin is very resilient and cannot be killed easily. It will only go up from here.

[Buffer Overflow]

I'm pretty sure it won't succeed.

Reason: Lack of reliable, secure, user-friendly infrastructure. The Average Joe will stay far away from BTC.
And several (more) governments will ban it.

I've never experienced any reliability problems. My transactions have always completed fine.

[zhangweiwu]

And screw ubuntu, seriously. Focus on what the majority uses instead.

is US dollars. ("Focus on what the majority uses instead.")

Seriously, as a desktop OS, 1.5% desktop computer users uses Ubuntu. A bitcoin would worth 20,000USD if only 12 million people (0.25% of world) uses it - bitcoin is far less popular than Ubuntu.

[Ibian]

And screw ubuntu, seriously. Focus on what the majority uses instead.

is US dollars. ("Focus on what the majority uses instead.")

Seriously, as a desktop OS, 1.5% desktop computer users uses Ubuntu. A bitcoin would worth 20,000USD if only 12 million people (0.25% of world) uses it - bitcoin is far less popular than Ubuntu.

Is that supposed to somehow be an argument in favor of switching to linux?

[chessnut]

screw Ubuntu? I never thought Id ever hear that on a bitcoin forum with nerds and smart speculators on it (in theory). nobody wanna be with the herd, it works like a charm, so Ill stick to linux 

[Hyena]

I'm really happy with my Linux Mint.

[Ekaros]

I give it 1% and I'm being way too generous here...