3 is the magic number, and the magic number is 3

[old_engineer]

I've been buying when under 3, and selling at over 3 for the past two weeks, and have been doing quite well while also helping to stabilize the market.

I suppose it's appropriate for a virtual currency to settle on an arbitrary whole-number barrier, but it looks to me like 3 is a stable price point: the majority of miners haven't abandoned mining, and speculators have the purchasing power to buy all of the coins sold on the exchanges.

My prediction: prices won't drop below $2 or go above $4 this year.  Instead, what I'd like to see is the bid & ask walls get steeper, so that the market is less volatile when there are large buys or sells.  But remember months ago when 10k-30k coins would often be dropped on the market by a single sell order, crashing the market?  It seemed like a weekly occurrence back then, but I can't remember the last time that happened.  But we still have 10k-30k bitcoin buys every week or so.  Now to see if we can get through the holidays without a big crash.

[ineededausername]

The same was said at $5 and $14.

[allten]

It is looking pretty good!
Making it through the weekend without a serious crash was a very good indicator for me.
The total global hashrate also appears to be reaching a bottom (still needs a few more weeks to confirm).
The average cost to mine BTC is north of $3 if you take into account the hardware capital being paid off within two years (reasonable time for computing technology)
It gave me a lot of courage to throw up a nice bid wall around 3 (anyone wan'na sell?).

I agree, things are looking very good for some stability for the next several months with a price between $3 and $4(keeping fingers crossed for the holidays).
After that, the next crash will be in a positive direction - My speculation.

[Dan The Man]

I guarantee you that in two weeks the price will be below $3

[allten]

I guarantee you that in two weeks the price will be below $3

What percentage of your bitcoin money do you have riding on this speculation?

You could be right, but when your money is behind your statements then it means a lot more.

If it is below, I suspect it will not be by much.

My speculation/prediction and money is it will not dip much below $3 and maintain a price of $3+ for a while.

We'll see.

[old_engineer]

The same was said at $5 and $14.

Well, they were wrong, and I'm right - this time it's different!  

Seriously, I think the big difference is that more miners are holding rather than selling, waiting for better prices, and marginal miners have stopped mining.  Volume has been dropping, and the combination of reduced price and reduced volume is allowing speculators like myself to keep up with production.

The price was between 4 and 6 between Sept. 9th and October 9th - about a month.  It only held in the $13 range for a couple of weeks.  And it's been between 2 and 4 for about a month, too, and is still in the middle of the range, so I think it's fair to say that we're in a period of unprecedented stability since the rise over $1.

Then again, I (along with many others) push the market with our speculation, so my "prediction" of $3 is at least a partially self-fulfilling prophecy.  I'm not "The Manipulator", but I do represent, oh, >1% but <10% of mt gox volume over the past 30 days.

[tvbcof]

The same was said at $5 and $14.

...

Then again, I (along with many others) push the market with our speculation, so my "prediction" of $3 is at least a partially self-fulfilling prophecy.  I'm not "The Manipulator", but I do represent, oh, >1% but <10% of mt gox volume over the past 30 days.

$25,000 -> $250,000?

The sad thing is that these kinds of numbers are enough to do some damage.  Bring in a few buddies and let's get this thing rolling so I can stop pumping in funds and switch to more productive endeavors.

[lowlevel]

I've been buying when under 3, and selling at over 3 for the past two weeks, and have been doing quite well while also helping to stabilize the market.

I suppose it's appropriate for a virtual currency to settle on an arbitrary whole-number barrier, but it looks to me like 3 is a stable price point: the majority of miners haven't abandoned mining, and speculators have the purchasing power to buy all of the coins sold on the exchanges.

I've been doing the same thing all week, and I've noticed it's getting harder and harder to actually buy back...  I think I'm gonna quit while I'm ahead and sit on my bitcoins for a couple of weeks.

[Litt]

I guarantee you that in two weeks the price will be below $3

I mine and I would love to see the price to hold steady/rise while difficulty adjusts to it, but I'm afraid you are right about this as much as your weekend projection.

Unless we see a clear upward movement with high volume past at least $4 mark, we are only going to see small volume movements near $3 until we inevitably drop again like we have been. Because miners only have such small margin for profit, they are likely to sell right away if they are profitable to not go in negative teritory, or simply quit mining if they aren't profitable.  And longer we linger around same pricepoint, lower their confidence will be to hold. This slow loss of confidence by miners after first difficulty adjustment after a big dip is easily noticeable on the price charts represented by very low volume trading that continues for a week or maybe two which is followed by slowly accelerated selling starting the next wave down.

The average cost to mine BTC is north of $3 if you take into account the hardware capital being paid off within two years (reasonable time for computing technology)
It gave me a lot of courage to throw up a nice bid wall around 3 (anyone wan'na sell?).

What you are pointing out is merely the cut off line for miners to be able to enter and be competitive not losing money doing it. Price can easily go down to drive away more miners as easily as price going up will entice more miners to return. If you say the "average" cost to mine btc is more than $3, it's just means those miners are better off not mining and not facing a loss and the market is offering the coins cheaper than he/she can mine them.

I can't say about average, but my electricity after tax and all the other fees at $.07 right now is still profitable by a very small margin which keeps me mining. Others aren't as lucky and have long been out of the mining game since the downtrend. The cost to mine bitcoin isn't a leading indicator to what the actualy value of bitcoin should be. I would love to see the price go up so that I won't have to sell everyday just to make sure I stay profitable. Holding and price dropping it's bottom on me will ruin the little margin I have right now. But it is what it is and I haven't been convinced that any long term trend shows a clear reversal.  

[avoid3d]

first break above 3 in a while

rabble rabble rabble

[DeathAndTaxes]

I can't say about average, but my electricity after tax and all the other fees at $.07 right now is still profitable by a very small margin which keeps me mining.

How with $0.07 do you have a small margin?  Are you using the electricity to arc weld the hashes into aluminum sheets?

At 2.0MH/W & $0.07 per kWh = $1.01 electrical cost per BTC (current difficulty).  66.7% gross margins is barely profitable?
At 2.5MH/W & $0.07 per kWh = $0.80 electrical cost per BTC.

[Litt]

I can't say about average, but my electricity after tax and all the other fees at $.07 right now is still profitable by a very small margin which keeps me mining.

How with $0.07 do you have a small margin?  Are you using the electricity to arc weld the hashes into aluminum sheets?

At 2.0MH/W & $0.07 per kWh = $1.01 electrical cost per BTC (current difficulty).  66.7% gross margins is barely profitable?
At 2.5MH/W & $0.07 per kWh = $0.80 electrical cost per BTC.

Lets just say that .07 is just the rate. There are plenty of taxes in california on top of that and that is the lowest rate of the 3 tier system. I had to lower my mining output to remain low tier and whatnot.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Well you may want to fix your post:
"but my electricity after tax and all the other fees at $.07"

Hell I am surprise you even have a base rate of $0.07 in CA.  I got a friend in CA who complained his peak rate (TOU) was $0.22 per kWh.  Not sure if he was exaggerating or not. 

[Litt]

Well you may want to fix your post:
"but my electricity after tax and all the other fees at $.07"

Hell I am surprise you even have a base rate of $0.07 in CA.  I got friends in CA paying north of $0.22 per kWh at peak usage.

Yeah I'm living in live/work commercial zone loft and I can get decent rate from DWPLA. I'm definitely lucky to have low rate especially in cali.

[old_engineer]

Then again, I (along with many others) push the market with our speculation, so my "prediction" of $3 is at least a partially self-fulfilling prophecy.  I'm not "The Manipulator", but I do represent, oh, >1% but <10% of mt gox volume over the past 30 days.

$25,000 -> $250,000?

The sad thing is that these kinds of numbers are enough to do some damage.  Bring in a few buddies and let's get this thing rolling so I can stop pumping in funds and switch to more productive endeavors.

Damage?  I'm damn sure that I've been helping the market, not hurting it.

It's funny that 'speculator' is considered a pejorative around here, but it shouldn't be, as it really depends on how the speculation is done.  I think we both agree that dumping thousands of coins to cause a panic sell, then buying back in later at a lower price, is a crap way to treat this fragile market.  I've never done that.  I leave up a number of small bids and sells up that eventually get fulfilled, and rarely put in orders that are immediately fulfilled.  Rather than being a market mover, I'm acting like friction on the price, reducing volatility, no matter which direction it's going.

I'd rather work on something more productive, too, but the bitcoin economy can't function well if there's huge amounts of hourly or daily volatility.  So, my self-selected role has been to try to reduce volatility.  So join me if you agree that reduced volatility is a good thing: put up a bid below $3, a sell above $3, and then we can all move on to the more interesting parts of building this economy.

[Dan The Man]

I guarantee you that in two weeks the price will be below $3

What percentage of your bitcoin money do you have riding on this speculation?

You could be right, but when your money is behind your statements then it means a lot more.

If it is below, I suspect it will not be by much.

My speculation/prediction and money is it will not dip much below $3 and maintain a price of $3+ for a while.

We'll see.

I have about $200 in Mt Gox, none of it in Bitcoins at the moment. I'll buy if I see a panic sell, or some other opportunity, but I would only hold it for as long as the rebound.

[RandyFolds]

I can't say about average, but my electricity after tax and all the other fees at $.07 right now is still profitable by a very small margin which keeps me mining.

How with $0.07 do you have a small margin?  Are you using the electricity to arc weld the hashes into aluminum sheets?

At 2.0MH/W & $0.07 per kWh = $1.01 electrical cost per BTC (current difficulty).  66.7% gross margins is barely profitable?
At 2.5MH/W & $0.07 per kWh = $0.80 electrical cost per BTC.

Lets just say that .07 is just the rate. There are plenty of taxes in california on top of that and that is the lowest rate of the 3 tier system. I had to lower my mining output to remain low tier and whatnot.

My base rate in residential Los Angeles is $.0702, and FYI, there are no tiers from september to may, IIRC. What it actually comes out to is more like $.155 when you factor in taxes and delivery charges (which compose the lion's share of electrical costs here).

DeathAndTaxes: there are two utility companies serving Los Angeles. If you are on LADWP, you are getting the (more) subsidized shit. If you are on Southern California Edison, you are getting raped.

http://www.ladwp.com/ladwp/cms/ladwp004844.jsp
"High Peak" hours are 1:00 p.m. – 5:00 p.m., weekdays.
"Low Peak" hours are 10:00 a.m. – 1:00 p.m., and 5:00 p.m. – 8:00 p.m., weekdays.
The "Base" hours are 8:00 p.m. – 10:00 a.m. weekdays, and all day Saturday and Sunday.

They actually just changed this so that peak was 10 rather than 8 hours of the day. It's bullshit, cause I have a work order in to get a time-of-use meter installed from six months ago.

[tvbcof]

Then again, I (along with many others) push the market with our speculation, so my "prediction" of $3 is at least a partially self-fulfilling prophecy.  I'm not "The Manipulator", but I do represent, oh, >1% but <10% of mt gox volume over the past 30 days.

$25,000 -> $250,000?

The sad thing is that these kinds of numbers are enough to do some damage.  Bring in a few buddies and let's get this thing rolling so I can stop pumping in funds and switch to more productive endeavors.

Damage?  I'm damn sure that I've been helping the market, not hurting it.

It's funny that 'speculator' is considered a pejorative around here, but it shouldn't be, as it really depends on how the speculation is done.  I think we both agree that dumping thousands of coins to cause a panic sell, then buying back in later at a lower price, is a crap way to treat this fragile market.  I've never done that.  I leave up a number of small bids and sells up that eventually get fulfilled, and rarely put in orders that are immediately fulfilled.  Rather than being a market mover, I'm acting like friction on the price, reducing volatility, no matter which direction it's going.

I'd rather work on something more productive, too, but the bitcoin economy can't function well if there's huge amounts of hourly or daily volatility.  So, my self-selected role has been to try to reduce volatility.  So join me if you agree that reduced volatility is a good thing: put up a bid below $3, a sell above $3, and then we can all move on to the more interesting parts of building this economy.

I used the term 'damage' completely figuratively and not at all pejoratively.  Just meaning that it is of a magnitude such that it could have a noticeable impact.  I'm a fairly serious speculator as well and concur that such a class of participants could end up having a positive impact on the monetary system if it survives.

I'm with here on all fronts I think (though I'm certainly not putting up 100's of grand) and appreciate your efforts.  By happenstance I did do a recent one at $3.00, but whoever has the 20k BTC on the block at Tradehill right now is calling the tune on that exchange.  I am dying of curiosity about the story behind that block, but there are losta things we will probably never know.

[PatrickHarnett]

Three is a nice number, but I would say that it is the bitcoin number.

Try trading a different currency or exchange, then you'll find that while you are trading at three, others are not.  I hardly ever trade at that number, and am doing ok.  Good that you're adding to liquidity over at Gox.

[S3052]

I've been buying when under 3, and selling at over 3 for the past two weeks, and have been doing quite well while also helping to stabilize the market.

I suppose it's appropriate for a virtual currency to settle on an arbitrary whole-number barrier, but it looks to me like 3 is a stable price point: the majority of miners haven't abandoned mining, and speculators have the purchasing power to buy all of the coins sold on the exchanges.

My prediction: prices won't drop below $2 or go above $4 this year.  Instead, what I'd like to see is the bid & ask walls get steeper, so that the market is less volatile when there are large buys or sells.  But remember months ago when 10k-30k coins would often be dropped on the market by a single sell order, crashing the market?  It seemed like a weekly occurrence back then, but I can't remember the last time that happened.  But we still have 10k-30k bitcoin buys every week or so.  Now to see if we can get through the holidays without a big crash.

You may be right that BTCUSD may hold below 4 $ for a bit more, but in the next 1-12 weeks (yes, I know it's a broad range) we will see a rise into the 6 (edit)-10 $ range.