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Author Topic: how many S11,S15,T15 did bitmain actually manage to sell?  (Read 373 times)
mikeywith
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February 27, 2019, 12:12:28 AM
Last edit: February 27, 2019, 12:33:57 AM by frodocooper
 #1

I guess we all know that bitmain did not sell many of the their new released miners, but i didn't think the sales would be this low.

a while ago bitmain released a dozen of coupons to everyone who bough any SHA256 miner from S9 and above.

but they made a small change this time.

For every S9 bought they gave out 3 x coupons with face value of (160$,250$,340$).

For every S11/T15/S15 they gave out the same as the S9 + another 3 coupons with face value of ( 195,300,395).

as some of you might already know, i have traded thousands of bitmain coupons and i know these coupons inside out, so i am concluding my analysis based on that.

after the release of these coupons i started getting messages from my Chinese suppliers that i used to do business with back in the good days of mining fomo , and those guys are heavy bulk buyers.

i was offered to buy those coupons , what i have seen personally was about 40,000 S9 coupons ( of each value), but only about 200 coupons from the other type of coupons ( 195,300,395).

while my suppliers do not represent the whole percentage of buyers, i think we can still conclude some figures.

this shows that for every  10,000 S9 bitmain sold only 50 of either S15/T15/S11  ( i can't tell where do these coupons come from exactly)

so that's more like  0.5% for all sha miners ( excluding older models)

the current hashrate is 43,162,124 TH,  i will just assume that it's 100% bitmain gears.

this gives the new bitmain miners 215810.62 TH  , assuming they are all S15  this will give us  = 215810.62/28 =  7707 S15

but we all know that the total hashrate is not only made up of S9,S15,T15,S11 . so that 7077 s15 can even be real, which even if was real, it is still very bad ( terrible)  for bitmain to say the least.

those  numbers are far from accurate, but it does give an overall indication that the new miners are not being bought !  that's one of the main reasons they gave out that huge number of coupons to encourage new buyers, and i do not see bitmain doing so well , they probably started to use whatever reserves they have from their major sales of last year, but how long can they survive doing so?

what do you guys think?

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fanatic26_
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February 27, 2019, 12:24:02 AM
Last edit: February 27, 2019, 10:29:03 AM by frodocooper
 #2

I think that rumors and reports of bitmains demise continue unabated because people so badly WANT them to fail.

Honestly 40k coupons isnt really a good sample size. Just here at my datacenter we received over 15k coupons in total....

While it is obvious that this generation miner did not sell as well, there are plenty of reasons why it did not.

Your numbers make such massive assmuptions I just dont see the data as being particularly useful since you are extrapolating on such a small sample size.

If we wanted to do generic math....my 20MW DC received 15k coupons, so 40k coupons would only represent less then 44 megawatts of processing power in total which doesnt even begin to scratch the surface of what is out there.
mikeywith
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February 27, 2019, 12:38:52 AM
Last edit: February 27, 2019, 10:28:47 AM by frodocooper
 #3

ok i forgot to mentioned something else, the 40k coupons are from people i personally  know, but there is a market for that , let me put this in a simple form.

i can very easily get 100k s9 coupons in 24-48 hours , but i am sure as hell i won't find 500 of the other coupons.

also by looking at the Chinese market "out side of bitmain" you can easily source 10k,20k S9s from a single reseller but try to order 1000 s15 and am pretty certain that not a single resell has that number , regardless of the privileges they get for being Chinese ( yes they get those privileges , it's a standard in China )  

the 40k might be too small , but i am pretty certain these numbers will get worse the larger they grow.

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February 27, 2019, 12:49:11 AM
Last edit: February 27, 2019, 10:30:03 AM by frodocooper
Merited by vapourminer (1), mikeywith (1)
 #4

3000-4000 megawatts of hash  is close right number. Now m10's have been the best gear from Sept 1 to Jan 1

Last year A841 actually was decent A851 sucked.  A 921 sucked.
T1 had a lot of gear.

So Lets say the 40k coupons are based on 44 megawatts over 2500 mega watts that is 1/60 of all the bitmain gear in action.  Kind of  a small % but the issue is bigger than that.

the coupons mikey got  could be from people with really good power cost say 1-3 cents and they held off on s15 + t15.
Also bitmain has built out a new hashnest called bitdeer may be lots of s15 there.
tough call to say what bitmain has pulled in

this is direct to bitmain
https://live.blockcypher.com/btc/address/3AbjSf2vKK2AU6uqhMUjGpPQZGVbqg3HNb/

sent to here by bitmain
https://live.blockcypher.com/btc/address/32vzy8bMmRez6gcq6Q1YLJzancuy7BrxFm/

they account above has had 4,500 coins go in  most likely all bitmain sales

research it here
https://www.blockchain.com/btc/address/32vzy8bMmRez6gcq6Q1YLJzancuy7BrxFm

this one is first coin for 2019 it is 125 pages of sales 20 per page = 2500 sales
https://www.blockchain.com/btc/tx/cb2d9f0ba64cdc17a8b67cc8b1f8efd581e9c2a2b30ca48a602b474dc07a2744

yeah some numbers are too small to be an s15 or a t15

but this is only 1 address for btc.
I know they have  bch and ltc and bank deposits.

So I am not sure if they sold only 7000  s15's

They may sell the shit out of t15's s15's s11's over the next 60-90 days  use coupons and drop the price.

they did this in the spring of 2018 with s9 s9i s9j l3+ and other alt coin gear.
My guess is be very careful ordering over the next 2 months.

BTW  innosilicon has been not doing much avalon has dropped off the map  only the M10 is viable if you don't want bitmain.

the new coupons make the t15 better then the m10

and if you beat the trump tax the new coupons make the s15 better then the m10

I am not a bitmain fan but they look to be back on top.

I mine alt coins with https://simplemining.net...
I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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February 27, 2019, 04:43:46 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), NotFuzzyWarm (1), Steamtyme (1), frodocooper (1)
 #5

A lot of bulk buyers use wire transfers for business and not crypto to buy direct so trying to extrapolate from crypto addresses really isnt the way to go either.

There just isnt enough information out there to make a guess that is anywhere even close to accurate.
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February 28, 2019, 02:36:10 AM
 #6

Lightning will make even wires obsolete even with the low bandwidth at it's current state. The biggest manufacturers we source with are already beginning to pivot.

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fanatic26_
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March 04, 2019, 04:30:26 PM
 #7

Lightning will make even wires obsolete even with the low bandwidth at it's current state. The biggest manufacturers we source with are already beginning to pivot.

We prefer to only sell coins when it maximizes our profits, using them to buy equipment (other than dumping some useless BCH) just doesnt jive with our methods.

Plus in my personal opinion the lightning network is pure trash, and I cant support that shitty band-aid they tried to put over the top of bitcoin instead of fixing its actual scaling problems.
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March 04, 2019, 06:27:32 PM
 #8

Well, now we're getting side tracked cause as I'm more interested in how you drive revenue to cover all costs without selling bitcoin. I'll just say L2 is great for commerce, imo.

We send wires for the average consumer only if it's more cost/time efficient, usually it's for larger orders or innosilicons poor exchange rate.

Bitmain has sold enough units to survive and to continue development of new product. Of course they trimmed a lot of meat with the fat, so that could be a sign of why their new announcement seems really sudden but they need to keep moving. Only thing helping them is the biggest consumer market is reluctant to buy with tariffs, slowing sales all around. 

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March 07, 2019, 10:40:36 AM
Last edit: March 08, 2019, 12:23:50 AM by frodocooper
Merited by vapourminer (1)
 #9

I'm certain Bitmain still make their money from pre-mining undisclosed ASICs, but, this was not accounted for in their IPO documents.

Example; bitmain mining Tensority, without having disclosed any asic able to do so?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5117949.0

On the SHA256 front, Bitmain are currently mining at 1,692,350 TH/s.

That is as of March 5th, down from:
February - 1,790,000 TH/s
January - 1,899,700 TH/s
November - 2,339,210 TH/s

No idea of the make-up S9/S11/S15/S17.

The dropping hashrate suggests alot of their machines are selling.

In January they were running 4,788,300 MH/s of Ethereum ASICs and today are running only 154,520 MH/s, suggesting they are selling hardware through mediums other than their website.

Someone pointed out the B7 to me that is for sale on the Chinese website: https://www.asicminervalue.com/miners/bitmain/antminer-b7-96kh

This must be their new miner I was looking for.
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March 07, 2019, 05:24:50 PM
Last edit: March 08, 2019, 12:24:53 AM by frodocooper
Merited by vapourminer (1)
 #10

More people jumping to conclusions without facts in the race to bash bitmain, gotta love it.

They are not PRE mining anything. They are mining publicly available coins.

They are under NO REQUIREMENT to tell you what they mine, just as there is no requirement that you tell me what you mine.

Their first BTM miner has been out almost a year, yet you claim its an undisclosed asic of some sort?

P.S. Bitmain is under no obligation to tell us when they are testing a new miner before releasing it to the public. Its called Quality Control testing. Of course they are not going to tell people what they are developing and testing, especially with all the competition in the hardware space now.

P.P.S. They test their miners for about 72 hours with a burn in test. Once the test is complete, they are packaged up and loaded on a truck within a day or two. They dont mine on all the hardware they create for months and months like people seem to think. Ive been to their facilities and seen how they operate. Ive walked their testing labs, their warehouses, their packaging and transportation facilities. I speak from experience unlike 99% of this forum when talking about bitmain.
mikeywith
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March 07, 2019, 06:43:26 PM
 #11

More people jumping to conclusions without facts in the race to bash bitmain, gotta love it.

while i don't agree with the alleged pre-mine story that many people have to say about bitmain , this is mining speculation section, and everyone has the right to speculate as they see fit, they don't have to go to "their facilities and seen how they operate" to speculate, and if you think that this is a requirement then maybe we should leave this board for you to speculate with yourself  Grin

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March 12, 2019, 03:03:31 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1)
 #12

I don't bitmain bash anymore.   They are the giant of gear. I will never reach the point of 1 or 2 % of the network  so buying 10,000 s17's won't happen on my part.

if the network is 41,000,000 th and a s17 is 41 th  there would need to be 1,000,000 s17s to match current numbers

10,000 s17's would be about 1% of that.

fanatic_26  is looking to fill  40 mega watts down the road that is 40,000 kwatts or

40,000/1.6 = 25,000 s17's

I like to read his viewpoint as he is the largest miner that actively posts here.

for scale viewpoint  if everything I am looking to do happens  I will be running 280 + 40 + 11 = 331 kwatts

or 331/1.6= 210 s17's

quite the difference Grin

If things stay about the same I will be running 65 kwatts  or 65/1.6 = 40 s17s

fanatic_26  will have a different mindset then most if not all of us.

He is also able to have a lot more access to upper bitmain management then I will ever have.

as 25,000 x 1200 = 30 million

and 210 x 1200 =  252 thousand

   This reason lack of access to bitmain is why I tend to prefer the number 2 builder of gear.
used to be the avalon's it now seems to be the whatsminer's.  I can have some behind the scene conversations and some access to them.

How do I blame bitmain for paying more attention to fanatic_26  then to me? I don't.

I mine alt coins with https://simplemining.net...
I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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March 12, 2019, 06:50:55 PM
 #13

while i don't agree with the alleged pre-mine story that many people have to say about bitmain , this is mining speculation section, and everyone has the right to speculate as they see fit, they don't have to go to "their facilities and seen how they operate" to speculate, and if you think that this is a requirement then maybe we should leave this board for you to speculate with yourself  Grin

I am just offering context for my rebuttals of what people say is going on, that my replies and statements are based on experience more than speculation. A lot of people on here offer their opinions as facts, im just trying to show how I came up with what I am saying
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March 12, 2019, 07:03:57 PM
Last edit: March 13, 2019, 12:26:59 AM by frodocooper
 #14

If bitmain did something really wrong it would have been with hashnest and now bitdeer.

If I have 1000 s9's and I say I have 800 s9's and 600 s7's
then sell hash nest shares for 800 s9's and 600 s7's in many countries I am a criminal
I don't say bitmain did this, but there was zero oversite to stop them from doing it.

If I have 1000 s17's and say I have 800 s15's  and 400 t15's then sell bitdeer shares for s15's and t15's
I am doing a crime in many countries.
once again I do not say bitmain does this right now but there is zero oversight to stop them from doing it.

In both cases bitmain would be stealing money by charging power cost for less efficient gear then they are running.

they have zero need to stealth mine since there is no oversight for the above.

if any company does stealth mining it may be innosilicon as they do not have high sales and have put out lots of other disc miners.

From bitmain's viewpoint why stealth mine when you can charge power prices for t15s when you are mining with s17's?

not that they do it  but that it would be easy to do.  and there is zero oversight to stop it.
by the way doing this could be legal in china for all I know.

I mine alt coins with https://simplemining.net...
I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
mikeywith
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March 12, 2019, 10:06:44 PM
Last edit: March 13, 2019, 12:27:32 AM by frodocooper
 #15

... that my replies and statements are based on experience more than speculation.

A tour in Bitmain facilities does not give your speculations any more accuracy than anybody else's , i know a dozen people who have been there, you did not sit with their sales manager and discussed their internal secrets ,so unless you are Wu Jihan's girlfriend then all you do is speculate just like the rest of us. nothing personal tho, feel free to speculate all you want.  Wink

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