Tax Season and Bitcoin Theory

[dyland]

I have this theory that it will have an impact on Bitcoin, a mainly positive one.

Anyone getting returns will have a little bit of extra money to spend on BTC if they so choose.  

The average tax refund is ~$2000.00 in the US, with 77% of population getting a tax refund.

 
These are rough numbers, but 77% of US population is roughly 245,630,000 persons. *Edit*quartering this number will get rid of dependents in the equation*Edit*  By average return ($2000.00) this amounts to: $122.82 Billion.

If every 1 in 1,000 people uses half ($1000.00) of their return for Bitcoin investing, that's a $61.25M investment into bitcoin in late April/early May.

But let's just say to be more conservative/realistic that 1 in 5000 people (0.0002% of tax return population) adopt it, and they only buy $100.00 of BTC. That is still almost a $1.25M trickle that will be coming in during this time.

Now granted a lot of this hinges on the price of BTC during this time, but given that it stays in the range it is now.....

What do people think.

Does the above analysis have any merit?

[dyland]

Just realized that the population extrapolation is way off as dependents come into play.

I am going to quarter the numbers in the OP.

[mskryxz]

Thanks for the analysis.

[aminorex]

Does the above analysis have any merit?

Much merit.  So analysis.  Very tax season.  Wow!

[dyland]

Does the above analysis have any merit?

Much merit.  So analysis.  Very tax season.  Wow!

Lol

[BitChick]

Seems plausible.  I think we can assume that around December and January Bitcoin will go down due to Holiday expenses and with extra cash flowing in April and May can show some growth.

The only problem this year is that some of us are getting much less in our returns than last year!     We are getting half what we expected back.  Oh well.

[TERA]

Let's say that bitcoin traders made $1 billion this year. On average, they have to pay 30% in taxes. That means they withdraw $300 million worth of bitcoins to pay their taxes. That is a $300 million (in btc) dump. This may explain some of the recent action, and why Bitstamp might be overloaded with withdrawals at the moment.

[dyland]

All in all I'm really surprised that no one's devoted much attention to the idea... Because of that I questioned its merit... Such merit. Wow. Tax season.

[CoinsForTech]

Let's say that bitcoin traders made $1 billion this year. On average, they have to pay 30% in taxes. That means they withdraw $300 million worth of bitcoins to pay their taxes. That is a $300 million (in btc) dump. This may explain some of the recent action, and why Bitstamp might be overloaded with withdrawals at the moment.

I had not even thought of that.. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. My accountant hates me for accepting a split of AUD and BTC so I bet he's looking forward to tax time!

[bassclef]

Let's say that bitcoin traders made $1 billion this year. On average, they have to pay 30% in taxes. That means they withdraw $300 million worth of bitcoins to pay their taxes. That is a $300 million (in btc) dump. This may explain some of the recent action, and why Bitstamp might be overloaded with withdrawals at the moment.

If you wait a year to cash out, long term capital gains are 15% in the US.