SEC will delay any approval until they think that bitcoin represents the risk for traders, but also for them - ultimately they are responsible for everything that happens after approval.
Bitcoin tanking from $20k to $3k in no shape or form will ever satisfy the SEC, especially with how there isn't a way to know what the 'real' value is of Bitcoin. It still could go down way harder than most people here think.
If Bitcoin does happen to drop another 50% from where we are right now, the chances of the SEC being even remotely willing to consider an approval will be gone for ever.
They will see it as a bubble that popped and from there maybe end this whole craze for ever. We here know that's not going to happen, but nocoiners don't look at crypto we way we look at it, and I can't even blame them.