Hodling btc vs Hodling hashpower in 2019, thoughts needed.

[mikeywith]

2017-2018 have been the best 2 years for me so far, i managed to make good profit form both mining and trading. by the end of 2018 i have saved a good amount of my hodlings in a cold wallet and decided to never touch that for at least a couple of years.

lately , and given the market condition i have been thinking about shifting to mining full blast mode  

I have been running the numbers and it does seem to me like this is the perfect market conditions for me to do so, given the stability of price as well as the difficulty, and since i am pretty certain that the bull market still has months and months to come , my analysis on that is here > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5105680.msg49569375#msg49569375

I am planning to use all of my hodlings to buy used S9s

now here are the numbers.

it will cost me approximately 200$ per S9 ( including set up and  installation for the quantity am planning to buy, the more the cheaper )  

daily profit for 13.5 TH would be 2.22$  = 68$ monthly  * power is free

200/66 = 3 months.

so even if price drops from here, difficulty will have to adjust itself and ROI time will be the same more or less.

the only issue that i might face is some gear failure since those will be used gears and can break at any time.

should everything go according to plan , in 3 months i would have the same hodlings back to where they are now, and end up with a good amount of hashing power.

note that i have to go ALL IN for the numbers above to work out, the less risk i take the more it will cost per miner, therefore ROI will take more time which will eventually lead to more risk, giving the fact that there is some initial cost that i have to pay regardless of the number of gears, as well as the miner cost itself.

I would love to hear thoughts from the forum members, do you think this is a good step ? or am i crazy ?

Thanks.

[philipma1957]

how much power do you have available?

[Steamtyme]

The only problem here is the price of your gear at the moment.

You can source 741's for significantly less, and they are nearly bulletproof. Considering you would be loading up a lot of them you only need 1 pi and could run say 15 trouble free. (I've heard going for 20 can be troublesome)

I say this because with free power the efficiency isn't a factor. Now i don't know how much power you have available, but i think you would be in the profit within 2 months.

Where are you located? I ask because I know of someone with miners available.

[mikeywith]

the S9s that i sourced are pretty cheap, 130$ with PSU in china, the other 70$ is the shipping + rack + cables and installation fees. while i can indeed find a much cheaper gear as in cost per TH but the cost that comes along with the miner is the problem, i will probably end up with the same cost and almost half the hashrate if went with the 741.

another issue is that the power is limited, so i am trying to balance between cost per th as well as power consumption. I ran all the numbers on different gears and the best choice so far is the S9.

all the numbers seem to match, i just don't know why am i a little hesitate , i always get the feeling that the gears will stop half way to ROI  .

maybe i am not brave enough to take such a step, but i think anyone else would have taken this opportunity, it's so tempting to hit ROI in 3 months.

do you guys think i should minimize the initial risk and extend ROI period ? because these sweet numbers will only work if i go all in, anything less will not be 3 months to ROI.

[philipma1957]

wow  really hard question to answer.

for simple math pretend it is 100 s9's x 200 = 20000 usd invested

100 x 13th = 1.3ph  which is close to 20000 back in 90 days.

power used is about 130 k-watts

if you look at the L3+

and use the watts reduction software

it is 700 watts a machine if you get 140 machines vs 100 s9

you may pay only 150 each so 21000 paid and only 98kwatts

you would earn 7000 usd a month so 90 days you get the 21000 back

and you used 98 kwatts vs 130 kwatts.

I do not advise all LTC
I do not advise all BTC

but if you buy L3+ and set it up for 150 usd
and you buy s9 and set it up for 200 usd

it is a very slight edge to LTC

so proper game strategy is mine both coins.

we mine 530th BTC   power is about 51kwatts
we mine  7.5gh LTC   power is about 11kwatts

the solar array evens us enough to not worry spending 62kwatts of power 24/7.

[mikeywith]

I thought about L3s , my only concern about LTC mining is that a new scrypt gear can hit the market at anytime.

it has been awhile and i think they are coming up with a new gear soon, and you know these ALTs gears always tend to make the previous generations almost worthless, take D3 for example, it was totally destroyed by a few newer x11 miners, it is now pretty worthless even with free power.

Btc miners on the other hand improve slowly, we won't see a 100th at1500 wats in a few months or so, it could take years to accomplish it , but we can very likely see 2 or 3gh ltc miner with 1kw or so.

Do you think think my concern is valid?

[philipma1957]

yes and no

see my ratio is way more on the sha256 then the scrypt

roughly 51 kwatts sha-256
and only 11 kwatts ltc

why is this because like you I know a ltc miner doing 1.2gh and 700 watts is coming sooner or later.

I guessed to so some ltc in december when we did the array startup.

so I mined all of Jan and all of Feb and some of March .

I hodl all that ltc about 19.9 of them or about  1100 usd.
I paid about 2k for my 16  pieces so most likely i was well off doing the move. I could sell them at 18 to 19 hundred right now

so 2k is now about 3k in 70 days.

[sidehack]

Please tell me I'm not the only one here whose linguistic sensibilities throw up just a little bit every time the word "hodl" is used intentionally. I know it's become an intrinsic cultural element of this industry but gosh dang is that a stupid word.

[mikeywith]

why is this because like you I know a ltc miner doing 1.2gh and 700 watts is coming sooner or later.

i won't be worried about such improvements,am worried about something similar to x11.

119gh/D5 vs 19gh/D3 that's  6.26 improvement with almost the same power range,the next scrypt miner might do 3gh at 700 watts, and it could come out any time soon, that will be a killer! correct me if i am wrong. i do want to be wrong this time honestly   as the numbers for L3 seem slightly better than S9.

Please tell me I'm not the only one here whose linguistic sensibilities throw up just a little bit every time the word "hodl" is used intentionally. I know it's become an intrinsic cultural element of this industry but gosh dang is that a stupid word.

I think it has been intentionally misspelled from day 1, and I love how it sounds and even how it looks,  i am going to Hodl on to saying the word Hodl every time i see fit , i apologize for the innocence

HODL

[sidehack]

Well I guess it's not much worse than everyone here mis-using the term "ROI" for freakin' ever. Return On Investment is a continuous process (usually described as a percentage, or fixed value, per unit time), and what most people are trying to discuss is the breakeven point (where the accumulated returns equal the initial investment).

Sorry, I just woke up from a nap, and the only thing I remember from the dream I had was the line "I'm not angry at you. I'm not angry at all. It's more like disappointment. I'm very familiar with disappointment; it's... nigh perpetual."

Regarding the initial question, remember the first rule of any venture: don't spend more than you can afford to lose.

[philipma1957]

At sidehack  I gave up on  correct use of roi and hodl at least a year ago.

[...]

the s7 at its best is say 240 watts a th
the s9 at its best is say   80 watts a th
the s17 at its best is say  40 watts a th  a true 6x improvement

the l3+ at its best is 700 watts for 500mhs

so the l7+ at its best could be 700/800 watts for 3gh

since it is the 28 to 7 nm jump in both cases.

if you notice I recommended
a 50 kwatt for sha
a 10 kwatt for scrypt

this is my safety margin  incase the  jump to l7+ is a six fold improvement

Now I have mined and hodl ltc since Nov  and I don't have to worry if that gear does come out.

the LTC ½ ing is in 150 days  you should not see the better gear for 90-100 days you would have time to roi if you don't go crazy on the LTC gear.

But I am looking at it  from a different viewpoint as I have been mining it for a while.  I am good for the roi and can still use this gear for my next solar buildout.

Fingers crossed on that  as it will be 3-5 x the size compared to the one in Clifton
we would have the

110kwatt built 3 years ago
300kwatt in Clifton
900kwatt in Warren county

total of 1300kwatt/7 =  185 kwatts 24/7/365 free power.

this would be 3ph sha and 25gh scrypt  by years end.

[mikeywith]

Well I guess it's not much worse than everyone here mis-using the term "ROI" for freakin' ever. Return On Investment is a continuous process (usually described as a percentage, or fixed value, per unit time), and what most people are trying to discuss is the breakeven point (where the accumulated returns equal the initial investment).

Sorry, I just woke up from a nap, and the only thing I remember from the dream I had was the line "I'm not angry at you. I'm not angry at all. It's more like disappointment. I'm very familiar with disappointment; it's... nigh perpetual."

Regarding the initial question, remember the first rule of any venture: don't spend more than you can afford to lose.

you remind me of my dad, he cares a lot about these tiny details, he would "correct" everyone at least 2-3 times a day, don't get me wrong i like my dad   , but i think we " the average people" just prefer to use simple words that are easy for us to understand, regardless of the technical meaning behind it, when i use the word ROI , i think of it as a point of time when my 100% HODLINGS are back to where they came from prior to buying the gears, this does not mean that i don't know that the actual ROI % by then would technically be 0% (excluding whatever my gears are worth by then)

thanks for the advice, good to know you are not angry at me

if you notice I recommended
a 50 kwatt for sha
a 10 kwatt for scrypt

I think i am going to take this recommendation with a slight change in ratio depending on the exact price of L3++ , i have contacted a few sources in china, still waiting for the best price, the L3s have less weigh so shipping should be a plus, i will share the exact number with you once i get the final quote.

thanks a lot pal.

[sarcheer]

According to the BitDeer website, they have an L5 on offer. So assuming that isn’t made up marketing by BM, they have an unreleased scrypt miner.

Specs as quoted:
1473 MH/s
1425 W
0.97 J/MH

[philipma1957]

According to the BitDeer website, they have an L5 on offer. So assuming that isn’t made up marketing by BM, they have an unreleased scrypt miner.

Specs as quoted:
1473 MH/s
1425 W
0.97 J/MH

if true  thats great news as it sucks.

a properly setup l3 + does   500mh at 700 watts or 1.4 J/MH

so the improvement is  not much  which means the l3+  at low cost price and low cost power is better bet.

[mikeywith]

According to the BitDeer website, they have an L5 on offer. So assuming that isn’t made up marketing by BM, they have an unreleased scrypt miner.

Specs as quoted:
1473 MH/s
1425 W
0.97 J/MH

I doubt they can made up something like that, bitmain would lie about anything else but not about a gear they don't have, so it seems like these info are accurate, it's only a matter of when will they release it. thanks for the information.

if true  thats great news as it sucks.

a properly setup l3 + does   500mh at 700 watts or 1.4 J/MH

so the improvement is  not much  which means the l3+  at low cost price and low cost power is better bet.

it sucks big time to say the least, i was expecting something more like 3gh for 700w range , at least based on the improvement of the x11, this is also what you got when you used sha miners for reference, this makes me wonder ! how is it possible to improve that much for x11 but not for scrypt?

also giving the above specs, L3++ would be differently a better option specially that new miners usually come at extremely high prices.

[dentolas]

You are going for a bold move. Bringing a bunch of used gears from China and hope to use them 100% for 3 months it is a risk... have you done it before? ASICs usually need repairs after some months/1 year service
Thinking about it, if you do this quickly (before the next bull run), it will pay off to be able to get your investment back and also accumulate before the market starts pumping... but the market trend has already changed, and considering that the bull run arrives at the end of the year/beginning of the next I am not sure that there will be much time left ...
Please share if you jump into the train or not...

[lunobird]

According to the BitDeer website, they have an L5 on offer. So assuming that isn’t made up marketing by BM, they have an unreleased scrypt miner.

Specs as quoted:
1473 MH/s
1425 W
0.97 J/MH

if true  thats great news as it sucks.

a properly setup l3 + does   500mh at 700 watts or 1.4 J/MH

so the improvement is  not much  which means the l3+  at low cost price and low cost power is better bet.

Your math is wrong. More like 0.66 J/MHh.  So new miner is about 30 percent more efficient

[mikeywith]

You are going for a bold move. Bringing a bunch of used gears from China and hope to use them 100% for 3 months it is a risk... have you done it before?

Well I can't deny the fact that it's indeed a bold move, in fact , every move you take towards mining is bold one way or the other  .

Please share if you jump into the train or not...

which i had a simple answer to this, but this was my reply for the same question (else where)

okay what i did was actually reduce both risk and reward , i had to pay a lot more per miner (of course this includes other expenses )since the numbers i had in mind required a certain amount of gears, so i went in with like 40% instead of 100% , ROI got extended by about 1.2 months based on the initial plan, but with the price rising i am still aiming for about 3 months ( or just a bit more )

i can't say i regret not going all in, , because the btc hodling increased too (dollar wise) , to be honest i am too lazy to do some the math that would suggest if my decision was the best or not , but i am happy with the fact that for once i could resist the temptation of going balls deep into mining.

[BitBustah]

If you don't mind me asking how is your power free?


Even with free power I think you will be better off just buying and holding and you also won't have the hassle of dealing with mining hardware.

[lobat999]

If I were to be asked about that matter, I would choose to hodl BTC since it has a great potential to fully maximize your profits especially if we base that assumption on its historical volatility as compared to hodling your hashpower because  there is also a great chance that profitable coins to mine right now will not be profitable in the foreseeable future and you could end up hodling a depreciating asset such as your mining equipment. Imho.