??? DECISION TIME FOR BITCOIN?!?! 4k or 3.5k?!?! ???

[CoinChili]

We just hit $4K a few minutes ago and it looks like we are not out of steam yet. Looking at the open interest, there was a small amount of positions which closed, so I am thinking we will test $4200 again for the 5th time and this will give us a peak into the future of Crypto.

As i was expecting it, the resistance broke at $4k. If it will going to be strong, it will continue to go up to that $4200. At 1d timeframe, the bullish trend is not yet the end. So, it will continue to pump. Let's not losehope.

[michellee]

Yes, we still at the bearish market but fortunately, the price become stronger than yesterday, and we see that the price can increase higher after it's falling yesterday. So we have a chance to see the price will increase more in the next week unless there is negative news that could push the price to fallen again which I don't want to know that. I am sure that many people will love to see the price can increase, but we cannot just hope it will happen in the short. We still need to be patient in the bearish and I am sure that we are almost leaving the bearish and who knows, in the next months, we will see the bull market come.

[BeGoods]

Its hard to know where the market is heading but I'm confident that the bottom was already hit. The recent dump is just because of the failed attempt to break the resistance and its normal. The dump price will continue not unless we already surpass the resistance on level $4300. Let's make a good prediction, the market will go high! 

I see a lot of people responding like that, if a lot of people believe and are confident about the condition of Bitcoin in the future, then I'm sure recover is just a matter of time. The bottom already over which will happen in the future is price increase, it's better that you prepare to buy more before you are left behind and miss a big opportunity..

[beerlover]

Yeah, 4k range seems to be the new norm for bitcoin. It went up to 4200 range couple weeks ago and even when it dropped it didn't dropped too further down this time, normally when it dropped it hit places like 3500 and a bit under that but this time around it was mostly staying above 3800 which means it didn't get away too far from 4000 range.

I wanted to buy a bit at around 3500 so I could sell when it eventually hits over 4000 again but couldn't get it since it didn't reached that low.

Hopefully we will see it go even higher because if we could find a way to stay around these levels it makes it easier to go higher, think about it which one is easier going from 3400 to 4200 or going from 4000 to 4500 ? One is about 800 dollar difference the other is just 500 and if we could manage that than we can break this cycle and finally go up.

[pixie85]

Yeah, 4k range seems to be the new norm for bitcoin. It went up to 4200 range couple weeks ago and even when it dropped it didn't dropped too further down this time, normally when it dropped it hit places like 3500 and a bit under that but this time around it was mostly staying above 3800 which means it didn't get away too far from 4000 range.

I wanted to buy a bit at around 3500 so I could sell when it eventually hits over 4000 again but couldn't get it since it didn't reached that low.

Hopefully we will see it go even higher because if we could find a way to stay around these levels it makes it easier to go higher, think about it which one is easier going from 3400 to 4200 or going from 4000 to 4500 ? One is about 800 dollar difference the other is just 500 and if we could manage that than we can break this cycle and finally go up.

]

Don't be so sure. If the rally fails and forms a new lower high below 4200 dollars it can go back to retest the lows. The down support is looking good because we are still forming higher lows but we need to break above the previous peaks to convince the bears that it's time they changed their strategy.
I'm still invested and waiting for a return above 5000 dollars which would suggest the final end of the bear market but 4000 is still a weak support and going above it doesn't mean anything. 5000 is what people are waiting for.

[STT]

I took the last big rise to 4200 and its subsequent fall and taking Fibonnaci retracement % from there we are between 50% and 61.8% levels as on this chart.  The blue line is the 8 day average price




To judge a tide you can sometimes just put a stick in the ground to observe if its advancing or retreating.   There are other ways but the simpliest way to judge the tide or trend at that time.   Here we can do similar perhaps in reference to the last break upto 4200.   If it fails to maintain the lower 4050 level then its going to at least check the 8 day average.   If it can push past 4100 then we are above the 61.8% fib retrace and perhaps 100% or 4200 area is more possible.

It needs to break above and confirm above 4100 area.  On the chart we can see on the 4hr bars it rose above a couple times but did not close out there especially

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/retracement.asp

[gabmen]

Its hard to know where the market is heading but I'm confident that the bottom was already hit. The recent dump is just because of the failed attempt to break the resistance and its normal. The dump price will continue not unless we already surpass the resistance on level $4300. Let's make a good prediction, the market will go high! 

I see a lot of people responding like that, if a lot of people believe and are confident about the condition of Bitcoin in the future, then I'm sure recover is just a matter of time. The bottom already over which will happen in the future is price increase, it's better that you prepare to buy more before you are left behind and miss a big opportunity..

The question is, are that much people really confident n btc right now? Though i agree that we've probably bottomed out already, i don't think confidence is high. New investors are still wary in putting in money after the 2017 -2018 drama. The steady hands would have to get is through this slow movement for now.

[KennyR]

Its hard to know where the market is heading but I'm confident that the bottom was already hit. The recent dump is just because of the failed attempt to break the resistance and its normal. The dump price will continue not unless we already surpass the resistance on level $4300. Let's make a good prediction, the market will go high! 

I see a lot of people responding like that, if a lot of people believe and are confident about the condition of Bitcoin in the future, then I'm sure recover is just a matter of time. The bottom already over which will happen in the future is price increase, it's better that you prepare to buy more before you are left behind and miss a big opportunity..

The question is, are that much people really confident n btc right now? Though i agree that we've probably bottomed out already, i don't think confidence is high. New investors are still wary in putting in money after the 2017 -2018 drama. The steady hands would have to get is through this slow movement for now.

In 2017 almost the same pattern of growth took place. For a long there weren't big growth, only the market was showing signs of fluctuations. Later it grew gradually, and by then investors began to pour lot of fund into bitcoin. This kept the market keep on growing without any interruptions. Finally by the way close to $20000 the price drop got initiated and showed drastic fall. By this time it is predicted for a growth above $4200 which might take the price further to $6000 by the end of the second quarter 2019.

[South Park]

In 2017 almost the same pattern of growth took place. For a long there weren't big growth, only the market was showing signs of fluctuations. Later it grew gradually, and by then investors began to pour lot of fund into bitcoin. This kept the market keep on growing without any interruptions. Finally by the way close to $20000 the price drop got initiated and showed drastic fall. By this time it is predicted for a growth above $4200 which might take the price further to $6000 by the end of the second quarter 2019.

Not everything can be told by the charts, the year of 2017 was special for many reasons during almost all year the developers were fighting the miners so they could accept segwit and the battle was fierce, that is why the price did not grew that much during the first part of the year, then some miners decided to create bitcoin cash as a response to the pressure of the developers and the community and when we finally got segwit activated the price began to skyrocket very quickly, and right now I do not see that kind of interest from investors that are not part of the community so I do not expect the same scenario repeating itself.

[Rewards.com]

In 2017 almost the same pattern of growth took place. For a long there weren't big growth, only the market was showing signs of fluctuations. Later it grew gradually, and by then investors began to pour lot of fund into bitcoin. This kept the market keep on growing without any interruptions. Finally by the way close to $20000 the price drop got initiated and showed drastic fall. By this time it is predicted for a growth above $4200 which might take the price further to $6000 by the end of the second quarter 2019.

Not everything can be told by the charts, the year of 2017 was special for many reasons during almost all year the developers were fighting the miners so they could accept segwit and the battle was fierce, that is why the price did not grew that much during the first part of the year, then some miners decided to create bitcoin cash as a response to the pressure of the developers and the community and when we finally got segwit activated the price began to skyrocket very quickly, and right now I do not see that kind of interest from investors that are not part of the community so I do not expect the same scenario repeating itself.

If you look at the charts you can see this drop from 6k is a mirror image of the 2018 bear market

[LUCKMCFLY]

Your analysis has a good sense if we see it from the point of view of the split of 2h. But if you want to analyze the market in general, the best thing is that at times to days or months, the information that you can subtract is much wider, you can decipher where the direction of the market can go.

If we take into account that according to Wyckoff's theory we are in the accumulation phase, the EMA will always be above the normal line of the bitcoin chart, then that information will give you a bearish, but we are not in a bearish trend.

And if you reach that conclusion, you will always enter the Bearish market with the total conviction that it will be bearish, and the market may rise and liquidate your position, in that part, you must be careful, it is best to observe how the volume can tell you the amount of supply and demand that goes to Days, because only then you can determine the line of least resistance, and that is the one that must be followed, since that way you will not go against the market.

[Rewards.com]

Your analysis has a good sense if we see it from the point of view of the split of 2h. But if you want to analyze the market in general, the best thing is that at times to days or months, the information that you can subtract is much wider, you can decipher where the direction of the market can go.

If we take into account that according to Wyckoff's theory we are in the accumulation phase, the EMA will always be above the normal line of the bitcoin chart, then that information will give you a bearish, but we are not in a bearish trend.

And if you reach that conclusion, you will always enter the Bearish market with the total conviction that it will be bearish, and the market may rise and liquidate your position, in that part, you must be careful, it is best to observe how the volume can tell you the amount of supply and demand that goes to Days, because only then you can determine the line of least resistance, and that is the one that must be followed, since that way you will not go against the market.

I always use EMAs

[BUK2016]

I will reply to your question number 2 which has something about the resistance around  $4000. This is happening because of the past event that happened around that particularly amount and we all know that if that level  is penetrate so much the market will definitely reach $5000 or there about.