??? DECISION TIME FOR BITCOIN?!?! 4k or 3.5k?!?! ???

[Rewards.com]

Hello all, I want to do a quick update about bitcoin. Within this post I want to acknowledge all of you about the crucial area of bitcoin and the price reaction on this particular area.

On my post today, I want to present the 2-hours chart as a key chart that I want to concern for, Why?
1. Bitcoin is trending on 200 moving average on 2 hours chart which means the bitcoin is moving nearly the decision line whether it is going to the up trend or down trend
2. $4000 is becoming a relatively strong resistance because of psychological number and a lot of price action has occur  in the past.
3. The price is still trending on the 38.2 fibs retracement based on previous swing high to swing low. as we know, based on fibonacci number there are 2 crucial area which is 38.2 and the golden ratio number, it is a special number that can occur on every aspect of life in this universe.
4. The wicks on 2-hours chart. we can see in the 2-hours chart there are several wicks on the closing candle (look at the yellow box). what does it mean?
Whenever we saw the wick toward the resistance, it always represents the market player's sentiment on specific time frame. we can easily conclude that the bulls are trying to push the price toward the upside to break the resistance zone, but the bear is too bearish, which means it ended up to produces the wicks, and what will happen when we saw a several wicks here? In my opinion, just like the human analogy, whenever you are trying to push the price up and ended up failing, the bulls will feel exhausted if they are rejected a lot of time and it will simply losing their strength soon.

So, the conclusion is I am still bearish side  short term.

and no, i dont think the bottom is in.

[Dreamchaser21]

Its hard to know where the market is heading but I'm confident that the bottom was already hit. The recent dump is just because of the failed attempt to break the resistance and its normal. The dump price will continue not unless we already surpass the resistance on level $4300. Let's make a good prediction, the market will go high! 

[bhadz]

You can be bearish as you want base on your technical analysis but the market can't be predicted that much. Most of the time, these TA's aren't coming into really but for me I respect and I'm good with these TA's because I can have that basis if I want to depend on them but mostly I won't. I'm not very good on the technical side of the market but every each point that has been shared here looks amazing. With the pricing you mentioned on the title, we're heading to $4,000 and if breaks back again expect $3,500 - $3,800 for months.

[pooya87]

it is impossible to say and no there is no "psychological number" yet because those only come in when we actually reach the price multiple times and don't break it. so far we have only done that once and with only one try that doesn't become strong resistant!
right now the only thing "psychological" as i have said before is that uncertainty which is not changing with any kind of TA on the charts. and uncertainty means nobody knows whether price is going up or down which is why it doesn't move at all!

[2double0]

As some of you think that economically, BTC has seen its bottom then I say not yet because BTC is yet to see a bottom but don't worry, it will look more as a red injection line downway (dump to a new bottom) and then instantly back to the price from where the dump starts. I don't see this going below $2000 (the least I expect to be the bottom for this year). The bullish momentum that is being seen at the moment doesn't look trustworthy enough to say that BTC is actually bullish, and chances of reversal as well as dumps are more as it all looks a trap. Better not to take leveraged positions nowadays because it will only land you at ground scale, so save yourself some money and have buy orders open for $2500 with 50% and $2000 with remaining 50% capital you want to invest.

[davis196]

It's pointless to make predictions about the bitcoin price based on a 2-hour chart analysis.
The bitcoin price moves here and there every minute and there's no point to making conclusions out of every 0.1% rise or fall of the price.Bitcoin is stable and that's the best news we could get.

[Rewards.com]

Its hard to know where the market is heading but I'm confident that the bottom was already hit. The recent dump is just because of the failed attempt to break the resistance and its normal. The dump price will continue not unless we already surpass the resistance on level $4300. Let's make a good prediction, the market will go high! 

Unless we break 4150 I see no reason to be bearish. until then I am bearish

[Kemarit]

Its hard to know where the market is heading but I'm confident that the bottom was already hit. The recent dump is just because of the failed attempt to break the resistance and its normal. The dump price will continue not unless we already surpass the resistance on level $4300. Let's make a good prediction, the market will go high! 

Unless we break 4150 I see no reason to be bearish. until then I am bearish

LOL. We have been bearish for a long time, and breaking $4150 doesn't mean we can go uptrend as well. And as far as I know we did broke that barrier last Feb 24, but the growth wasn't sustainable so I don't think we can say that we need to break this certain resistance to go to the next phase. It doesn't work right now as investors or speculators will just jump on opportunity to book profits.

[ryzaadit]

Unless we break 4150 I see no reason to be bearish. until then I am bearish

Bitcoin already breaks $4150 with a few rally and the trend still not change from Bearish to Bullish. You cant use the factor of price for trend of the market. We need some a good news and adoption to makes the rally was really strong.

[gabmen]

Unless we break 4150 I see no reason to be bearish. until then I am bearish

Bitcoin already breaks $4150 with a few rally and the trend still not change from Bearish to Bullish. You cant use the factor of price for trend of the market. We need some a good news and adoption to makes the rally was really strong.

The thing is, no real money is coming in to the market. Very few new investors. It would probably take more than a few good news to really bring back the confidence that was lost because of this ongoing trend. The run to 4.1k isn't at all bullish.  There have  been runs like that last year where we're still dominated by bears. And i agree that we may not have seen the bottom for this year yet.

[dothebeats]

The thing is, no real money is coming in to the market. Very few new investors. It would probably take more than a few good news to really bring back the confidence that was lost because of this ongoing trend. The run to 4.1k isn't at all bullish.  There have  been runs like that last year where we're still dominated by bears. And i agree that we may not have seen the bottom for this year yet.

Correct. The market has since stagnated ever since we stayed on $6k for a few months before sliding down past $5k which seemed to be impossible for many traders back then. No new money is coming in on the market; no catalyst for a price push and certainly no bullish movement happening. Though one thing's interesting lately: volume is gradually growing since Dec. 2018. While this might seem nothing at all, higher volume with almost no price changes is a common scenario for accumulation, and that's what could be happening in the sidelines.

[1Referee]

The thing is, no real money is coming in to the market. Very few new investors. It would probably take more than a few good news to really bring back the confidence that was lost because of this ongoing trend. The run to 4.1k isn't at all bullish.  There have  been runs like that last year where we're still dominated by bears. And i agree that we may not have seen the bottom for this year yet.

I'm sure there is plenty of new money coming into the market, but that's largely through private deals (i.e. OTC trading). The on-chain transaction volume is indicative of high volume trades, but the money doesn't touch spot exchanges, and that's what's driving the price at the end of the day.

Important indicators are stablecoins. As long as the total circulating supply is the same, there isn't all that much money entering the market that we can see. Before $6000 broke USDT's total circulating supply was hovering between 2.3-2.5 billion, right now that's just under 2 billion. In other words, up to 0.5 billion has left the market.

[n0ne]

Bitcoin isn't crossing $4000, people keep focus on the price to grow above $4000. The previous price pumping gave the price of bitcoin to be above $4000, several such predictions happened and none sustained above $4000 for a longer time. Th upcoming price to be above $4000 will support with the crossing of $4000 barrier.

[exstasie]

Whenever we saw the wick toward the resistance, it always represents the market player's sentiment on specific time frame. we can easily conclude that the bulls are trying to push the price toward the upside to break the resistance zone, but the bear is too bearish, which means it ended up to produces the wicks, and what will happen when we saw a several wicks here? In my opinion, just like the human analogy, whenever you are trying to push the price up and ended up failing, the bulls will feel exhausted if they are rejected a lot of time and it will simply losing their strength soon.

After one wick on high volume, that's usually a good assumption. It means supply overtook demand. However, it keeps happening over and over. Bulls keep holding the line and retesting the highs. Usually when a resistance level gets tested over and over, it eventually breaks.

So I'm still short term bullish on the chart, looking for an eventual retest and break of the $4,200 level.

and no, i dont think the bottom is in.

I'm leaning towards that conclusion as well. But there's still a decent chance we're wrong.

[Slow death]

[...]

if the price does not exceed  $4200 then the price will fall, but this is not reason to worry because it is normal. when I speak of normal I am referring to the fact that there is not much demand for bitcoin which causes that the price does not increase much. This is the case of being very patient that in the next months or years the price will recover

[Bagaji]

As some of you think that economically, BTC has seen its bottom then I say not yet because BTC is yet to see a bottom but don't worry, it will look more as a red injection line downway (dump to a new bottom) and then instantly back to the price from where the dump starts. I don't see this going below $2000 (the least I expect to be the bottom for this year). The bullish momentum that is being seen at the moment doesn't look trustworthy enough to say that BTC is actually bullish, and chances of reversal as well as dumps are more as it all looks a trap. Better not to take leveraged positions nowadays because it will only land you at ground scale, so save yourself some money and have buy orders open for $2500 with 50% and $2000 with remaining 50% capital you want to invest.

I don't think there will be any further serious decline of Bitcoin market value that will make us withness another new bottom in time to come. If you are still expecting to Bitcoin at a cheaper rate than what its value was some months back meaning you have the golden opportunity.

[magneto]

So, the conclusion is I am still bearish side  short term.

and no, i dont think the bottom is in.

You're right about the resistance being at $4k. Prices have already tested that level in the past rally, and even though it did go through that resistance, it was only temporary and a correction came right afterwards. I think it's quite obvious that given the still bearish sentiments present in the market, we'll likely see sideways movements with some potential short term dips/panic sells before a large rally comes by that constitutes the actual recovery.

So is it possible we still haven't seen the true bottom? Yes, because short term volatility can literally take prices anywhere, and with people's perception of BTC still being in a bear market it's very possible short term panic dumps can be quite sizeable.

But I personally think that we're already past the bottom, because we've seen strong rebounds from the $3k-3.5k level multiple times. The demand below that price would just be too great, especially from institutions that prices will rebound as soon as coins get below $3k.

[Rewards.com]

So, the conclusion is I am still bearish side  short term.

and no, i dont think the bottom is in.

You're right about the resistance being at $4k. Prices have already tested that level in the past rally, and even though it did go through that resistance, it was only temporary and a correction came right afterwards. I think it's quite obvious that given the still bearish sentiments present in the market, we'll likely see sideways movements with some potential short term dips/panic sells before a large rally comes by that constitutes the actual recovery.

So is it possible we still haven't seen the true bottom? Yes, because short term volatility can literally take prices anywhere, and with people's perception of BTC still being in a bear market it's very possible short term panic dumps can be quite sizeable.

But I personally think that we're already past the bottom, because we've seen strong rebounds from the $3k-3.5k level multiple times. The demand below that price would just be too great, especially from institutions that prices will rebound as soon as coins get below $3k.

With the rejection we just had looks like we might be going towards 3.5 or it was just a hunt trade

[Cosbycoin]

One thing I can say is that I know there will not be a dip in the price of bitcoin beyond the $3000 range unlike what most people are saying that the price of bitcoin would get to $800, we just need a few months from now and we word begin to see the magic of the bull run in the price of bitcoin and other crypto currency like ETH and EOS.

My guess is that it would begin fully in the 3rd quarter of the year. But, if there would be any big positive news in between time, then we may start the journey to moon at that time itself.

[YuginKadoya]

The price can always go to the $4000 USD mark and can make a sudden pump even higher than that but I don't really think  that this is a sign or an indication for a bull movement And because I believe we are not seeing the true bottom for the price of bitcoin, there is a lot happen and we still experiencing low volatileness from the price of bitcoin, And in my opinion the bearish market this year still continues, That is just my speculation and will not gonna handle any other prediction because of unpredictability that may happen to the market this year.