On Bitcoin cycles

[mu_enrico]

Indeed, the halving cycle. The halving is predictable, but the price is unpredictable. I know that from the past two halvings the price actions look similar.

However, in my opinion, it's still different, and these similarities are highly coincidental.

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[buwaytress]

But it is unlikely we are going to see that pattern right now. If anything, it feels more like we are back in 2015. In the first half of that year we were making lows (the last local low was in August at around 200) and only since the fall Bitcoin started to gain momentum in earnest.

it looks like 2015, and that's what most of us are hoping for. but the bottom range isn't well established yet. ranges need to be tested in both directions multiple times so we still need to wait and see. there is still a possibility this is a long term "bear flag" and we are still destined to continue the bear market to sub-$3000 levels. that'll probably ruin this idea of a "4 year cycle". i hesitate to say such a cycle exists yet since 2014-17 was the only time it happened. all i know is the long term bitcoin chart is bullish.

Actually, deisik, I don't think most people are thinking it's 2017. The rational voice is the more common one, least to my eyes. And this 2015 phase is precisely what the rational (and objective) view should place us. I also haven't shifted in opinion about bottom range either. Profit taking is not done, and neither is accumulation. I think the likelihood of a $1k low (what I thought might happen) is looking more remote, but fresh 2019 lows can't be ruled out at this point, so yeah, what figment and others are saying, that's what the majority of us are thinking.

It doesn't change our end game outlook.

[antisocial77]

i dont think its very healthy way to predict the market move.market is alive and everything is change due to time especially for crypto which is so new and less marketmakers than other markets.

[traderethereum]

Maybe the pattern is almost the same as we saw in 2017 but still, it's different. But I don't want to talk it's the same, but if we take a look at the chart, there is a big different than in 2017. In my opinion, people in 2017 think about bitcoin will explode after it slept over than a year or two so they try to buy as much bitcoin as they can with a cheap price. And yes, after they bought bitcoin, it explodes and even it made a big profit for every people who invest in that year.

But now, with the price is up to $3000 and now, we are at $5000, I think people who buy bitcoin is not too big as in 2017 because people already have bitcoin since 2017 and many of them are stuck in the high price. But I believe that there will be many people who already bought bitcoin at $3000-$5000 so they only need to be patient to wait for the price to increase.

[pushups44]

There are bitcoin cycles, but I'm not sure they are four years, and they are certainly not fixed. As CNBC's Brian Kelly asserts, the cycles are more like two years each on average for bull and bear markets roughly. As the industry matures, we are likely to see past trends thrown off a bit. It's possible the cycles may even contract.

[Kakmakr]

Just to be clear, there are no recognisable pattern or cycle in Bitcoin and people claiming that are just speculating or trying to look smart.    Bitcoin like any other commodity goes through the same normal price behaviour, where the price goes up and then this is followed with a coreection phase and then a ATH again, but nobody knows how long this will take and if it will repeat this kind of behaviour. 

We might see a downward spiral that never recover, so people should not bargain on a recovery happening every time. 

[deisik]

i would never call what we have in bitcoin a "cycle" specially because that way of thinking always ends badly for traders who try to follow some arbitrary cycle that never happens

This is not what I'm talking about

What you describe should be referred to as regular volatility. I wouldn't call it cycles, at least not in the sense I use the term in the OP. More specifically, I'm describing 4-year cycles which are caused by the effects of halvings (hype before plus supply squeezes soon thereafter). Obviously, that has little if anything to do with pumps and dumps that are indeed completely random and happen from time to time (or all the time)

but there are not specific time frames or sizes to these periods of time. they can be 1 year or 4, the rise can be 4x or it can be 20x or 50

I'm not talking about the scale of the price rise (fall), but timeframes are certainly traceable

[Artemis3]

It is common to see people claim that Bitcoin follows the pattern which was established in 2017. I understand why they want to think this way as it took less than a year to reach 20k by the year end starting with just 1k in January that year (at a certain point price had even momentarily crashed to 750)

But it is unlikely we are going to see that pattern right now. If anything, it feels more like we are back in 2015. In the first half of that year we were making lows (the last local low was in August at around 200) and only since the fall Bitcoin started to gain momentum in earnest. Then the halving came in July 2016 and the real run-away growth kicked off in a few months (in September 2016, to be exact) being somewhat postponed by the Bitfinex hack in early August

For that matter, things look more like we are following the 4 year cycle in which the Bitcoin reward halvings play an ever important role, and we are in the beginning phase of a new cycle. The implication is that we shouldn't be overly optimistic and expect too much of 2019 as it is more like 2015 rather than 2017 (and 2018 was our 2014). Indeed, things never repeat themselves but the overall outlook should be clear by now

So what are your thoughts?

I also think that the cycles are more closely related to the halvings, meaning every 4 years instead of every year. Things are starting to look a lot like the year before the last halving. But nothing is assured, external events may come and distort the market a bit at anytime, such as a banning here, a new regulation there, etc. Still things tend to go back on track, as designed.

Free to move, but still always returning back in place. Bitcoin is only maturing more and more and will tend to stabilize in the long term.

[odolvlobo]

Answering to all of you, mates

There is a 4 year cycle with Bitcoin, whether you like it or not, whether you believe in it or not. It is there simply because we have the block reward halved each 4 years, and to deny this cycle is to be in denial yourself (no offense intended). So it is sort of a given

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FTFY. I challenge you to show me a 4-year cycle that occured more than once.

Given Bitcoin's history of measly 10 years (3 of which it had been virtually unknown to the wider public), your whole challenge doesn't make a lot of sense

You were talking about prices, so I thought you were talking about a 4-year cycle in the price. Sure, the halving occurs approximately every 4 years, but the price has not followed a 4-year cycle.

[kingpin4321]

As for me, bitcoin isn't following any cycles. It's volatile and unstable so we can't conclude that it's repeating the exact path as before. Though some historical cycles can be used to predict the future trend, I believe that no bitcoin cycle could repeat or could ever have the same version of itself.

I definitely agree with you on this bitcoin is very unpredictable and if bitcoin follows a cycle then it would have been very easy to predict it's next prices.
Expert and analysts can only put there own speculation but bitcoin next moves is not influenced by it

[maianh09]

The trend of Bitcoin is like a yearly cycle and repeated. You will see Bitcoin will increase at the end of the year and early of the year. It eventually adjusts prices in the remaining months of the year. It seems stupid, but the Crypto market always follows this rule for many years.

[deisik]

But it is unlikely we are going to see that pattern right now. If anything, it feels more like we are back in 2015. In the first half of that year we were making lows (the last local low was in August at around 200) and only since the fall Bitcoin started to gain momentum in earnest.

it looks like 2015, and that's what most of us are hoping for. but the bottom range isn't well established yet. ranges need to be tested in both directions multiple times so we still need to wait and see. there is still a possibility this is a long term "bear flag" and we are still destined to continue the bear market to sub-$3000 levels. that'll probably ruin this idea of a "4 year cycle". i hesitate to say such a cycle exists yet since 2014-17 was the only time it happened. all i know is the long term bitcoin chart is bullish.

Actually, deisik, I don't think most people are thinking it's 2017

In fact, I'm quite surprised

There's a thread in Economics (here it is) which constantly keeps popping up in my watch list (read, it is quite popular). Its title eloquently speaks for itself -  "Bitcoin is following the same path of 2017". Indeed, not everyone agrees with it (actually, that was the reason why I started this topic), which I also made known in that very thread (that's why it keeps popping up). But if you look through it, it is not unlike "most people are thinking it's 2017" unless you (don't) mean people literally thinking it is 2017 now (though who knows)

The rational voice is the more common one, least to my eyes. And this 2015 phase is precisely what the rational (and objective) view should place us

The voice of rationale is drowned in the choir of fantasy and delusion

You were talking about prices, so I thought you were talking about a 4-year cycle in the price. Sure, the halving occurs approximately every 4 years, but the price has not followed a 4-year cycle.

Sure, you can come up with something more subtle

[suzanne5223]

I was not around in 2015 but from what I have read about the bitcoin market movement in 2015 I can say it likely following the same pattern in 2019 and at that since history can not repeat it self twice we may not have the same market result in 2019/as it happen in 2015 bit with similar experience and growth. We are all optimistic that the 2020 bitcoin halving will be the starting point of a significant rise of bitcoin price judging from past experience.

Well, what I learnt about the bitcoin market price movement is that history does repeat itself(correction before another halving) and you're wrong when you said history can not repeat it self twice. Besides, this is what the OP is trying to fish out and this is the reason why I also like the fundamental analysis sometime.

[carlisle1]

there is no bitcoin cycle, it all depends on the market, the bitcoin volume is very sad right now, considering the price is fantastic at the end of 2017, I don't know how it was in 2015, because I don't know bitcoin

Agreed on that budz because i can see that there is nothing precise in this market and volatility can tell us all that value fluctuate in each years differently

2017 brings us all what we need to believe about what crypto is all about and what can brings to the cryptonians.but what i am certain is nothing repeats in the trend so lets stop looking for those cycles that link to the same thing

[BrewMaster]

a cycle is only a cycle and worth having it under observation and act on it only if it repeats multiple times. so far the bear market was somewhat similar to the bear market of 2013-2014. and even if the rise follows the same pattern as 2015-2017 it still wouldn't be a cycle because it is the FIRST time that happens whereas bitcoin has been around for 10 years and it had at least 12 major bubbles which shaped up "cycles" that only occurred once.

with that said i am still fascinated by the current trend and how it sometimes mimics the past.

[deisik]

a cycle is only a cycle and worth having it under observation and act on it only if it repeats multiple times

But that's not how things work in trading

When the cycle (whatever it could be) finally reveals itself, it is typically too late to ride it because it just won't go on (so, technically, it is a moot point as once revealed, the cycle stops). On the other hand, if you are able to see it before it becomes obvious and everyone else is made aware of it, you will be able to profit off it handsomely. In this manner, it is actually worth looking for a pattern even before the price actions turn into a cycle (i.e. before it iterates a few times)

[antisocial77]

honesty im sick of to see that cycle.what is cycle?long story in short nothing is fall forever,nothing is rise forever which correction means.simple like that.but it shouldnt be the same moves as before so compare graphics doesnt mean anything.

[SuperTA]

Indeed, the halving cycle. The halving is predictable, but the price is unpredictable. I know that from the past two halvings the price actions look similar.

However, in my opinion, it's still different, and these similarities are highly coincidental.

I would not use 2014 top as a reference, because the mt.gox crash was very specific.