[2019-03-21] Blockchains Have Merit, But Cryptocurrencies Won’t Take Over

[hatshepsut93]

• Trade involving Bitcoin is increasing; trade involving fiat is declining (or at best static)
• The number of people using Bitcoin to account for their wealth is increasing; price inflation in fiat denominated goods/services/assets implies that using fiat to account for wealth is in decline

What makes you say that? The global economy grows with every year, there's no way that the trade involving fiat is static or declining, that only happens during recession years. While no one can predict the future of economy for sure, there's no reason to legitimately think that fiat economy is declining. Bitcoin trade is still so tiny when compared to fiat, the growth rate needs to become exponential in order for Bitcoin to get some significance.

[lukew]

A £1.50 transaction (on testnet at least) ends up over £2 with network fees.

Fees are not fixed, you just made all that up.

Minimum fees are less than half of $0.01. On Lightning, they're 10,000 times less than that.

Its what I just paid on a testnet transaction using the core devleopers android app, I made nothing up, just used the recommended fee. Yes the fee can be less, but realistically a low or zero fee transaction is unlikely to be included in a block if the network is busy. This was my point, so far it is just about making money for the miners and investors. What about if the price hits 60k? TX fees will be 20X what they are now.

Also I said about crypto being a payment system for the masses, not Bitcoin. Bitcoin will never make it but the technology behind it will, eventually.

[hatshepsut93]

Its what I just paid on a testnet transaction using the core devleopers android app, I made nothing up, just used the recommended fee. Yes the fee can be less, but realistically a low or zero fee transaction is unlikely to be included in a block if the network is busy.

Testnet transactions are irrelevant, testnet like its name suggest is meant for testing. Recommended fees are also irrelevant, because most/all wallets are notoriously bad at "recommending" fees. If you want to know the real fees, look at sites like https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#0,24h , they show the current stats. At this moment, even 1 satoshi/byte fees are easily getting included in blocks. For now on-chain Bitcoin transactions are very cheap.
Also, there's no such thing as "core developer's android app".

[lukew]

Its what I just paid on a testnet transaction using the core devleopers android app, I made nothing up, just used the recommended fee. Yes the fee can be less, but realistically a low or zero fee transaction is unlikely to be included in a block if the network is busy.

Testnet transactions are irrelevant, testnet like its name suggest is meant for testing. Recommended fees are also irrelevant, because most/all wallets are notoriously bad at "recommending" fees. If you want to know the real fees, look at sites like https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#0,24h , they show the current stats. At this moment, even 1 satoshi/byte fees are easily getting included in blocks. For now on-chain Bitcoin transactions are very cheap.

Testnet wallet uses the same GBP/BTC conversion rates as the mainnet wallet. Most people can't be arsed to check what the cost of a transaction will be when its easier, faster and free just to use a bank. Seems most people these days don't have the time of day to use punctuation, so expecting them to faff about checking what fee they should pay to send money for that mcdonalds they owe for is a big ask

As said, Bitcoin will never be the payment system of the future, the blockchain will but nothing that exists today.

Also, it's the Bitcoin wallet developers app I meant. I can't be arsed keeping track of who develops what, I gave up on Bitcoin a few years back.

[Carlton Banks]

Bitcoin will never make it but the technology behind it will, eventually.

Bitcoin is the most well developed cryptocurrency. It's posible that someone may in future produce a better design, but no-one's doing it now.

Also, your scenrio is biased: yes, if you use that specific app, a $60,000 dollar price would make it unusable. So just use a payments channel based app, fees are then flexible enough ($60,000 BTC price is a great problem to have, isn't it?)

• Trade involving Bitcoin is increasing; trade involving fiat is declining (or at best static)
• The number of people using Bitcoin to account for their wealth is increasing; price inflation in fiat denominated goods/services/assets implies that using fiat to account for wealth is in decline

What makes you say that? The global economy grows with every year, there's no way that the trade involving fiat is static or declining, that only happens during recession years.

Officially stated growth isn't outpacing inflation. That means de facto low or no growth in trade. And the actual growth rate might be lower than the official published figures. They're unlikely to be lower.

[bbc.reporter]

@Carlton Banks. Agreed! It makes you question the system. Reports would say that the global economy is growing, however, the divide between the rich and the poor has never been larger. Especially in 3rd world countries.

[lukew]

Bitcoin will never make it but the technology behind it will, eventually.

Bitcoin is the most well developed cryptocurrency. It's posible that someone may in future produce a better design, but no-one's doing it now.

Also, your scenrio is biased: yes, if you use that specific app, a $60,000 dollar price would make it unusable. So just use a payments channel based app, fees are then flexible enough ($60,000 BTC price is a great problem to have, isn't it?)

It was just an example, most people want their money to be easy and simple, and free. Don't get me wrong I've been following Bitcoin since it first appeared and have put time and money into developing projects around it. The issue is that even as someone who knows how it works and develops applications for it, I have no real interest in using it as a financial instrument. I considered investing 3 years ago, and I'd have made about £100,000 if I had, but the volitility was the big decider. I could have lost everything I put into it just as easily as making enough to buy a farm. Bitcoin is it's own currency and until it's possible to "piggyback" fiat on the network, it will likely remain a development tool and investment platform.

[Carlton Banks]

so you develop applications for Bitcoin, but don't want to use, and think it has no future. ok