Bitcoin 4-year cycle is it real? Probable end year rally for Bitcoin

[Hamphser]

~snip~

I do always have thought to myself that no matter what there would be no such pattern for this kind of market. We have seen on how many years that
Bitcoins price is very unpredictable.We might see some related incidents comparing to traditional market which we can apply to bitcoin but
it doesn't mean that this will correlate or will happen to btc itself.

[1Referee]

I wouldn't be surprised if the upcoming halving is already priced in, with the next ATH not occurring until the halving of 2024. Crypto never fails to catch one off guard though.

I think purely the speculation and people's assumptions that the block halving will lift the price will make them buy in, especially if the price is trending up for a month or two straight. People buy into that what goes up, and whatever the reason is the price is going up, people link it to the most obviously available event, which again comes down to the block halving.

Bitmain recently stated that it plans to deploy 200,000 miners, which is something they wouldn't consider if they believed the price would stay more or less around the $4000'ish level. It's obviously not a guarantee that the price will explode, but at least these entities put their money where their mouth is with the insane risks they expose themselves to.

[Baofeng]

I wouldn't be surprised if the upcoming halving is already priced in, with the next ATH not occurring until the halving of 2024. Crypto never fails to catch one off guard though.

I think purely the speculation and people's assumptions that the block halving will lift the price will make them buy in, especially if the price is trending up for a month or two straight. People buy into that what goes up, and whatever the reason is the price is going up, people link it to the most obviously available event, which again comes down to the block halving.

People will always assume in this market, I believed, how many assumed that the price would even go below 5 digits again, when we touch ATH last year? This market is really based on speculation and if they see the price started to rise after the next halving, and guarantee that they will opt to buy in again, pushing the market price again.

Bitmain recently stated that it plans to deploy 200,000 miners, which is something they wouldn't consider if they believed the price would stay more or less around the $4000'ish level. It's obviously not a guarantee that the price will explode, but at least these entities put their money where their mouth is with the insane risks they expose themselves to.

Maybe Bitmain knows something that we don't know,  . Probably risking it, what do they have to lose? They have total monopoly of it, and at least a little risk might be worth in the next year or so.

[pooya87]

lets not forget that the "4 year" is the time that has taken once between the two ATHs not between the time bubble pops and the price starts rising. so your first part of the statement (4 year cycle is real) can be correct only if you think things are repeated that way but the second part (end year rally) is wrong because you forgot to look at the charts.
the rallies last time started happening about a year and a half after the bubble burst. and even though i don't agree with things repeating the same way but price should be rising already and be up by the end of the year instead of starting then.

[lionheart78]

lets not forget that the "4 year" is the time that has taken once between the two ATHs not between the time bubble pops and the price starts rising. so your first part of the statement (4 year cycle is real) can be correct only if you think things are repeated that way but the second part (end year rally) is wrong because you forgot to look at the charts.
the rallies last time started happening about a year and a half after the bubble burst. and even though i don't agree with things repeating the same way but price should be rising already and be up by the end of the year instead of starting then.

True , nothing is certain in the market, but the possibility is always there.  As stated history is not a definitive indicator on what will happen next but it is so interesting to talk about the probability of this thing occurring again since as you stated those two 4 year cycle gives Bitcoin its ATH, one in 2013, and another one in 2017.  It is also very interesting to see different views of people regarding this cycle, but nonetheless a certain event will back the next possible run of Bitcoin which may lead to its new ATH or the opposite of it.

[HeRetiK]

[...] People buy into that what goes up [...]

Well ain't that the truth.

I always found it funny how Bitcoin @ USD 19,000,- seemed like a better investment to many people than Bitcoin at its current price point.

Bitmain recently stated that it plans to deploy 200,000 miners, which is something they wouldn't consider if they believed the price would stay more or less around the $4000'ish level. It's obviously not a guarantee that the price will explode, but at least these entities put their money where their mouth is with the insane risks they expose themselves to.

Bitmain also heavily bet on Bitcoin Cash so I'm not sure I'd trust their judgement (from a business point of view, regardless of what your stance on blocksize is).

[buwaytress]

Historically speaking can mean a lot of things. The only history for a boom after 270 days is the last cycle, or are we also going to ignore all the other cycles? Don't get me wrong, I completely believe in "we've been here before and we'll be here again", but I don't think we can ever accurately predict just how long lies in between the "whens".

Could be 270 days. Could be 270 weeks. Are you prepared for 5 years of waiting? You should be if you're into Bitcoin!

[lionheart78]

Historically speaking can mean a lot of things. The only history for a boom after 270 days is the last cycle, or are we also going to ignore all the other cycles? Don't get me wrong, I completely believe in "we've been here before and we'll be here again", but I don't think we can ever accurately predict just how long lies in between the "whens".

Could be 270 days. Could be 270 weeks. Are you prepared for 5 years of waiting? You should be if you're into Bitcoin!

Indeed!  Bitcoin trading is like a waiting game.  Those who cannot wait often ends up with regret, while those who waited for too long.. well, they just found out that they are at the starting point again..  It is always best to be vigilant about the price movement and the market news, gossips and rumors..  There is no harm in being informed.  At the end of the day, there maybe cycles but the amount of time or period it will take is still unsure, though funny that these 2 cycles from 2011 to 2014 and 2015 to 2018, both started at being bullish and ended with correction.

[darewaller]

2019 is really expected to be a very good year for Bitcoin but I don’t think it is based on trend even if it eventually coincided, the events that occurred in the past that brought about past event has come and gone.

The new events of these time are what will see to it that Cryptocurrency witness major recovery from the current bear market we find it, was there Facebook coin during that time, was there visa adoption of crypto, was there Binance Launchpad, was there Samsung S10 crypto wallet, so whatever affected the price then has done its part and waiting from the new events to take over, so let’s keep our finger crossed and see what happens from here.

[Slow death]

What do you think?

I think people do not want to admit that the price is falling because there is not much demand and that this lack of demand is due to the fact that the governments are making a lot of pressure and because the regulations are uncertain. So people are looking for justifications where they can and everything to not accept the sad reality of lack of demand because of the pressure of governments and the uncertainty of regulations. But we must accept reality. Keep bringing past events to say that in the future will be the same thing will not cause the price to increase and I very much doubt that happen the same things of the past

[The Sceptical Chymist]

Bitcoin is just over 10 years old, and I think that's not nearly enough time to establish a 4-year pattern. 

You know, it's human nature to look for patterns everywhere--and we often think something that looks like it has a pattern actually does, when it's not really the case.  That's probably been true ever since we developed frontal lobes, but nowadays people make youtube videos about it and gather followers and likes.  So no, I don't think there's a 4-year cycle at play with bitcoin.  Could we get a rally at the end of the year?  Sure.  It isn't a given, though. 

But man, I'd love to see it happen.  It's been a long time since we've felt that old bitcoin-to-the-moon euphoria.

[tomahawk9]

The new events of these time are what will see to it that Cryptocurrency witness major recovery from the current bear market we find it, was there Facebook coin during that time, was there visa adoption of crypto, was there Binance Launchpad, was there Samsung S10 crypto wallet, so whatever affected the price then has done its part and waiting from the new events to take over, so let’s keep our finger crossed and see what happens from here.

Most of things you mentioned won't help the market recover from the bearish season.

Facebook launching their centralized coin will have as much impact on the crypto market as JPM launching their stable coin: zero. VISA adopting crypto? Where did you read this? There's no way that VISA is going to adopt a cryptocurrency when they have the resources and manpower to create their own digital currency, plus they'd rather adopt the blockchain technology. Finally, the hype for the S10 crypto wallet died down, I bet 90% of the people who bought the S10 don't even care about downloading the wallet app.

[beerlover]

lets not forget that the "4 year" is the time that has taken once between the two ATHs not between the time bubble pops and the price starts rising. so your first part of the statement (4 year cycle is real) can be correct only if you think things are repeated that way but the second part (end year rally) is wrong because you forgot to look at the charts.
the rallies last time started happening about a year and a half after the bubble burst. and even though i don't agree with things repeating the same way but price should be rising already and be up by the end of the year instead of starting then.

The only thing I know for sure is that I don’t see anything major happening until the halving of next year, even the litecoin halving slated for this year will have good effect on the market but not enough to bring the market out of the bear market fully into bull run but might set it on its part, the major halving expected to really turn the market round and make the major bull run is that of bitcoin which will not happen until next year, sure we will see some major signs this year irrespective of whatever everyone believe will be the course but not the complete bull run. So, let us all wait and see.

[pooya87]

lets not forget that the "4 year" is the time that has taken once between the two ATHs not between the time bubble pops and the price starts rising. so your first part of the statement (4 year cycle is real) can be correct only if you think things are repeated that way but the second part (end year rally) is wrong because you forgot to look at the charts.
the rallies last time started happening about a year and a half after the bubble burst. and even though i don't agree with things repeating the same way but price should be rising already and be up by the end of the year instead of starting then.

The only thing I know for sure is that I don’t see anything major happening until the halving of next year, even the litecoin halving slated for this year will have good effect on the market but not enough to bring the market out of the bear market fully into bull run but might set it on its part, the major halving expected to really turn the market round and make the major bull run is that of bitcoin which will not happen until next year, sure we will see some major signs this year irrespective of whatever everyone believe will be the course but not the complete bull run. So, let us all wait and see.

actually i do believe that the halving is only coinciding with the rise and is not the reason. and it has never been the reason for the rises. that coincidence helps speed up the process though because it brings some hype and that always removes a lot of "fear of manipulation" from the market and people jump in where before they were standing around scared of some FUD or some manipulation dump.
otherwise the real effects of halving are always only seen at least 3 months AFTER the event itself while the rise starts 1-2 months BEFORE the event.

[FanEagle]

2019 is really expected to be a very good year for Bitcoin but I don’t think it is based on trend even if it eventually coincided, the events that occurred in the past that brought about past event has come and gone.

The new events of these time are what will see to it that Cryptocurrency witness major recovery from the current bear market we find it, was there Facebook coin during that time, was there visa adoption of crypto, was there Binance Launchpad, was there Samsung S10 crypto wallet, so whatever affected the price then has done its part and waiting from the new events to take over, so let’s keep our finger crossed and see what happens from here.

I honestly still don’t get why most investors keeps watching out for trend and believing whatever trend that played out in the past will also play same role again, well the market cannot be predicted so we find ourselves in a market where anything can happen but I think the forces behind value decision of Bitcoin and any other cryptocurrency is what you have said, the major determinant of its value will be what people are presently doing with it and the volume of Bitcoin the get engage in daily, what will now determine if we will experience a decline or increase in price is if the volume that is affecting the market is a BUY volume or SELL volume.

[kryptqnick]

It's apparent that this time round with the 2020 halving, a bull rally of sorts will most likely occur beforehand. Whether it'll start this year as people price in the event, or how much the markets actually go up as a result of this, we have no idea of knowing for certain,

Definitely agree with you, halving always have a positive effect on Bitcoin price ever since, as what you said, it made Bitcoin mining more scarce.  And scarcity somehow affect the price of any items.  

Yes, I think these cycles are directly related to halvings which also happen to be around every 4 years. The next halving is expected to happen in a bit more than a year from now, and the prices were seen to grow after them, so it's likely to happen again. At the same time, though, we should not be absolutely certain that this will happen, since mining does not really affect the price directly. This logic was used to justify the point that Bitcoin won't go below $6k, and yet here we are. Halving might lead to more miners leaving the market as the already unprofitable business gets even more unprofitable, you know. Halving might trigger the growth of demand but it's not bound to do that, unfortunately.

[ricardobs]

I don't seem to understand what you are trying to talk about but I am assuming that you are talking about the bitcoin halves that happens every 4 years in the bitcoin blockchain that makes the mining reward lesser thereby increasing the hashing difficulty of the coin.

Once we see an halve in the bitcoin network, we are likely to see a growth in the price of the coin because the halves always cause scarcity in coin supply.

[sandra_x]

You rightly noted that previous performance is not a guarantee for future performance. But it does  sounds reasonable to expect the market to go bullish this year. We are seeing so much interests from institutions ,adopting the block chain technology, also retail is growing significantly( bitcoin transaction counts are near those of the bull market)

[LUCKMCFLY]

I see it from the speculative point of view based on the philosophy of Wyckoff, and is that the bitcoin in 2014 began its accumulation stage until 2017 when it began its bullish trend phase, then the range that many see is 4 years , this does not mean that it should be repeated, because we are currently in the second phase of accumulation of the bitcoin, where we do not know how long it takes to accumulate the bitcoins to prepare to rise in price.

Some claim that it will last the same time, but you have to take into account the high volatility of the market, and that some times may vary, it may not last for 3 or 4 years, it may take less time to find your bullish trend again.

[pooya87]

I see it from the speculative point of view based on the philosophy of Wyckoff, and is that the bitcoin in 2014 began its accumulation stage until 2017 when it began its bullish trend phase,

i think you might have zoomed out of the charts too much because you can not call a 500% rise in 2 years an "accumulation"! price started at $200 with lowest at $150 and went up to $900ish by 2017 which is the 500% rise which you call "accumulation" but that was actually part of the bull run. the "accumulation" stage only lasted a couple of months in 2015 where price (similar to now) was stable at $220 to $240 range.