Bitcoin 4-year cycle is it real? Probable end year rally for Bitcoin

[exstasie]

I see it from the speculative point of view based on the philosophy of Wyckoff, and is that the bitcoin in 2014 began its accumulation stage until 2017 when it began its bullish trend phase, then the range that many see is 4 years , this does not mean that it should be repeated, because we are currently in the second phase of accumulation of the bitcoin, where we do not know how long it takes to accumulate the bitcoins to prepare to rise in price.

Some claim that it will last the same time, but you have to take into account the high volatility of the market, and that some times may vary, it may not last for 3 or 4 years, it may take less time to find your bullish trend again.

I agree. It could take more time as well. Many are expecting a 2015-like reversal in Q3 or Q4 based on past performance, but I think it's a tossup. This early in an accumulation phase, it's impossible to tell. In fact, it's too early to even call it an accumulation phase since we haven't established a bottom range like 2015 and we certainly haven't broken above it. Everyone is just assuming we will. Mid-2018 had the potential to be an accumulation phase too, but we know now it wasn't.

Wyckoff is the basis for my long term view as well. I like to see some confirmation of an accumulation/distribution schematic before projecting too far into the future. Repeating the 2015 model is possible but we'll probably see some deviation.

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[BitHodler]

We are seeing so much interests from institutions ,adopting the block chain technology,

Institutions adopting the blockchain as technology isn't really that bullish for crypto in general because it always concerns private blockchains. This whole blockchain thing is stupid and not even worth the hype it enjoys.

Institutions say yes to blockchain, but are very skeptical about our decentralized crypto currencies, while the innovation lies in the decentralized crypto currencies and not the blockchain itself.

also retail is growing significantly( bitcoin transaction counts are near those of the bull market)

That also means saying welcome back to higher fees. More needs to happen in order to prevent the network from clogging up. I hope Schnorr will help free up some block space, but when will it be released? This year? Next year?

[Pab]

I think that cycle is going to repeat and bitcoin will reach new ATH
Current biggest hurdle is 6k$ if btc will break 6k$ will be one big buy signal
And until that price btc will grow little by little
But 4500k will  cause positive impact
I expect first attempt to break 4500$ will be rejected but if btc will defend 4150  than next target will be 5500$ to 6000$

Price will be supported by more institution coming and infrastructure developed

[1Referee]

Bitmain also heavily bet on Bitcoin Cash so I'm not sure I'd trust their judgement (from a business point of view, regardless of what your stance on blocksize is).

That's definitely true, but the BCash bet was more related to Jihan and his right hand over at Bitmain (which Jihan paid the price for as he got booted from his head position), while their current plan to deploy an insane number of miners seems to be more of a smart business move based on internal consensus, where on top of that, you can't really go wrong with Bitcoin.

Of course, this isn't a guarantee that it will pay off would the market fall down below its current low, but you have to take that risk at the end of the day. China's cheap energy season very likely is an important factor for their plan, so they at least have a financial advantage here.

[Harlot]

Considering that the bearish market started right after Bitcoin's all time high which is December we aren't exactly a year past it by now as we are about 4 months behind from your current prediction. 16 months in a bear market just confirms as that the 4 year cycle you are talking about is not true for the most part, although I am willing to test it out as this could just be an extended bear market and we might see BTC go up anytime soon as BTC unlike before is steadily going back up above in a good fashion.

[2chase]

I think that it is likely that the existence of Bitcoin can fit into the concept of a four-year cycle proposed by the author. I believe that this may well reflect the existing reality and this means that 2019 may be the year of the beginning of the next cycle. At least it looks like the truth.

[lionheart78]

Additonal explanation about the 4 year cycle  by Bob Loukas

The Next 4-Year Cycle Started

Bitcoin 4 Year Journey - The Right HODL Allocation

The first actionable step in the BTC 4-Year Cycle Strategy is here!   Have you taken your position yet?  In this video I cover the right allocation and what I am doing. 

My position for this strategy is this Public Address:

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It is very interesting how can his position regarding the strategy he is discussing will end.  So far his position is on the positive from $100k worth of BTC during that time and now it is around $200k.   This is kinda educational because he is practically discussing and actually performing the discussed strategy.