Correlation between increase in transaction fees and Bitcoin price.

[2double0]

Mind well everyone, I have smelled this pump incoming.
You know how? I watch the network congestion every now and then. And guess what, I had been seeing unnecessary high fee payers once again which gave me a signal of an assured rise in the price of Bitcoins.

You might onto something.

I've said it in another thread, fees have been on the rise since last week for no reason.
Take a look at how the mempool looks over a 2-week period: https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#0,2w

Fees began to increase on March 26, unless something was going on behind the scenes and traders started making their move, I can't find something that can explain that sudden rise in fees.

If you check bitcoinfees.earn(dot)com, the optimal fee at the time of this post is 98 sats, so there's a lot of people overpaying for fees, pretty crazy considering that you could pay from 20-40 sats and get your tx confirmed in a few hours but I guess some people don't have the patience to wait.

Don't just limit it to traders, I think that even exchanges were knowing about this upcoming pump due to which they started paying those 98-200 sats/byte (where they could have paid less than 5 sats/byte to easily get it confirmed in max 3 blocks). I've watched this since the fee was being played with and was made to clog the network once again and make everyone pay higher fees back. It is true that it's people who don't just understand the metrics behind this and they don't even try to lower the fee but just send whatever was recommended to them. This way, we are not too far of seeing those $10-100 paid in fees days once again. Fees should really be lowered down when an increase (a quicker one) takes place in BTC price. This was almost a pump in the range of 30-50% where even indicators gave overbought signals in each of those.

[1715424088]

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[kryptqnick]

Mind well everyone, I have smelled this pump incoming.
You know how? I watch the network congestion every now and then. And guess what, I had been seeing unnecessary high fee payers once again which gave me a signal of an assured rise in the price of Bitcoins. Either way, it goes like this or opposite as sometimes, when price of BTC rises, fee starts to rise and chase its previous higher highs. Is $5000 showing a possibility of BTC transaction fees to be rising to newer highs too?

Well, you know that it's not really because of the prices going up but rather truly a correlation due to other factors, right? Transaction fees increase when the network is busy. If too many poeple are sending their bitcoins in the network, miners need more encouragement with confirming the transactions, so we have to pay them more (at least, that's how I see it). At the same time, people tend to get active when the prices are going up, because they either want to sell while they are high or buy more because of believing that the bull run is just starting. At the same time, though, the fees might get high in case of a massive sell-off as well, so it's more of an indicator that something is happening, but this something is not necessarily a good thing.

[Ucy]

This is an interesting one and maybe a good sign... Even better than the correlation between increase in the  search for Bitcoin on Google .
I noticed the increase in fees a day or less before the bull run and wondered what caused it.

[shield132]

Well, let me explain according to my own opinion:
When price increases, it means bitcoin has more value in usd, so logically value of fee in usd rises too. But also when price rises, demand increases too but supply continues to grow as usual. When demand increases, number of transactions increases too which means in order to get confirmation quickly, you have to pay high fee.

[Gaff]

Well, let me explain according to my own opinion:
When price increases, it means bitcoin has more value in usd, so logically value of fee in usd rises too. But also when price rises, demand increases too but supply continues to grow as usual. When demand increases, number of transactions increases too which means in order to get confirmation quickly, you have to pay high fee.

That's normal when there's a price update all fees on cryptocurrency transactions will also increase. Everything will change according to it's price rate of every crypto. Same also with fiat economy everything will going to increase, when a certain goods in the local store sold to consumer has to be updated to current fiat exchange rate in order to fulfill the worldwide market standard pricing. It's the rule of financial system, which is common to experience during price increase of bitcoin which entitled for all crypto coins not just bitcoin but also for ethereum contract tokens.

[STT]

Found the graph for fees if anyone was not believing they rose some, still not a spike more a rise into volume I guess



The best timing between spikes into yellow higher fees, you might get the green range of 30 or so in the early hours of UTC somewhere.   Surprising as I think that would correlate to Asia working day


Also another graph I spotted showing major  buy areas on initial rise -

[magneto]

Mind well everyone, I have smelled this pump incoming.
You know how? I watch the network congestion every now and then. And guess what, I had been seeing unnecessary high fee payers once again which gave me a signal of an assured rise in the price of Bitcoins. Either way, it goes like this or opposite as sometimes, when price of BTC rises, fee starts to rise and chase its previous higher highs. Is $5000 showing a possibility of BTC transaction fees to be rising to newer highs too?

With Segwit I don't think that there will be a much of a transaction fee hike as we saw back in 2017.

But it's my observation as well that transaction fees and market activity (which can be reflected through bitcoin price) has a direct correlation, probably because traders are more likely to move coins around during periods of volatility, and since prices fluctuates so much during high market activity periods, more people are willing to pay higher fees which push the overall fees up so that they're not exposed to temporary exchange rate risks when their coins are unconfirmed.

It's an interesting correlation. Whether or not this can actually be used as a TA method is debatable, since it's unclear which is the independent and the dependent variable.

[efxtrader]

Mind well everyone, I have smelled this pump incoming.
You know how? I watch the network congestion every now and then. And guess what, I had been seeing unnecessary high fee payers once again which gave me a signal of an assured rise in the price of Bitcoins. Either way, it goes like this or opposite as sometimes, when price of BTC rises, fee starts to rise and chase its previous higher highs. Is $5000 showing a possibility of BTC transaction fees to be rising to newer highs too?

I think its very normal if transaction fee increase when bitcoin price rising. Its because we convert it to US Dollar number but the transaction fee still the same in sats. I am prefer choosing bitcoin price rising rather than drop become lower because when we decide to invest, we must be want to make profits on our investment

[okala]

I have taken note of this since the last hype of December 2017 when the bitcoin transactions fees was so high that one almost pay $40 transactions fees for a transaction of above $100 and that always happen when ever bitcoin price rise so high and the point is when bitcoin Reach's $8000/and above the fees increase suddenly. But hope that will not repeat it self when ever the next bull run return.

[stompix]

Today I paid BTC0.00029744 ($1.53) for a $92 bill as a regular transaction fee and even waited about an hour for the transaction to get confirmed.

Just sent one an hour ago, 0.00015955 , almost half you paid and next block confirmation!

Also, the main culprit for higher transaction fees is veriblock:
Bitcoin Shed Over 40% In Transaction Count After Testnet Ended

Well, you know that it's not really because of the prices going up but rather truly a correlation due to other factors, right? Transaction fees increase when the network is busy. If too many poeple are sending their bitcoins in the network, miners need more encouragement with confirming the transactions, so we have to pay them more (at least, that's how I see it).

Nope, miners don't need anything more.
You can create a block with 1 million ASICs or with a couple of CPUs like Satoshi did.
There is no relation between the hashrate and the number of tx that can be confirmed, that is only limited by the block size.

[bonker]

Mind well everyone, I have smelled this pump incoming.
You know how? I watch the network congestion every now and then. And guess what, I had been seeing unnecessary high fee payers once again which gave me a signal of an assured rise in the price of Bitcoins. Either way, it goes like this or opposite as sometimes, when price of BTC rises, fee starts to rise and chase its previous higher highs. Is $5000 showing a possibility of BTC transaction fees to be rising to newer highs too?

Increase in transaction fee happens because of increase in traffic at blockchain network,so you have to pay high for your transaction to get confirmed earlier which doesn't relate anything to the price increase.

[Airbuxf]

There are much more iinside and outside indicators which goes up when price grows like hashrate, difficulty or google trends search bitcoin. I think this one is only correlated with price but it's more like effect of a price grow which results bitcoin is more interested by masses and more people buys and mempool is filled by new txs.

[Adriano2010]

Well i think indeed is a connection between high fee on bitcoin transaction and the price grow, in my opinion this happen because when price grow more and more people start send their bitcoin to exchange or from them and start sell and buy bitcoin and this cause the high fee.

[sana54210]

That’s how it is, whenever the price is increasing, the fees for transaction will also increase cause miners will be charging bigger fees. I can remember that in 2017 I had to pay up to $15 and a bit above that for transactions. There were even some people that mentioned paying more than as fees for transactions. Then there were lots of people complaining that the fees is too much and that cryptocurrency needs correction and I think that is what they got now, a correction I guess

Mind well everyone, I have smelled this pump incoming.
You know how? I watch the network congestion every now and then. And guess what, I had been seeing unnecessary high fee payers once again which gave me a signal of an assured rise in the price of Bitcoins. Either way, it goes like this or opposite as sometimes, when price of BTC rises, fee starts to rise and chase its previous higher highs. Is $5000 showing a possibility of BTC transaction fees to be rising to newer highs too?

Increase in transaction fee happens because of increase in traffic at blockchain network,so you have to pay high for your transaction to get confirmed earlier which doesn't relate anything to the price increase.

The price has even been increasing this month. Ever since we got into the month of April, as the price of Bitcoin moved, the transaction fees followed it up to 500%. Earlier this year it was $0.18 that we were paying as transaction fees, but it has moved up and now cost $1.3 for each transactions you do. If the price and fees for transactions continues to increase, a lot of people are going to switch to altcoins when they want to make transaction and that’s going to make the price to drop again. But let’s first see what’s going to happen.

[stompix]

That’s how it is, whenever the price is increasing, the fees for transaction will also increase cause miners will be charging bigger fees.

Seriously, aren't we past the stage where we've learned that miners can't charge bigger fees?

Well i think indeed is a connection between high fee on bitcoin transaction and the price grow, in my opinion this happen because when price grow more and more people start send their bitcoin to exchange or from them and start sell and buy bitcoin and this cause the high fee.

Not always.
In 2018 we had a jump from 6000 to 8000 in July, and one from 6500 to 9500 during last April..
If you look at the size of the mempool during the last 12 months you will see that none of the rises was reflected in the mempool size:
https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#0,1y

Also, one of the biggest spikes in transactions happened during November which was a dump

[STT]

If the price and fees for transactions continues to increase, a lot of people are going to switch to altcoins when they want to make transaction and that’s going to make the price to drop again. But let’s first see what’s going to happen.

Im thinking this also, alt coins will thrive while Bitcoin wants to charge over a dollar just because alot of traffic and very minor transaction want to confirm in minutes and many only contain value below that dollar.     People might think that isnt important but I actually think the business done below 1 dollar is the most genuine and regular ongoing business that will always occur in crypto currency.     I guess Im a cheapskate but I dont want to pay over a dollar ideally ever, Im just not that rich, important or in that much of a hurry normally.    I do think the demand for efficiency in crypto is a driving force and determiner of success

This part of the online economy is only handled as well as crypto can do it, most alternatives globally contain alot more hassle and cost usually and especially that is true for the developing world.    I would expect BTC to be handling all business but if it really does not aim to do so or cant then alt coins are going to do well for years to come despite some viewing them as nothing important

[shesheboy]

Well, let me explain according to my own opinion:
When price increases, it means bitcoin has more value in usd, so logically value of fee in usd rises too.

what's the connection of usd to bitcoin ? you mean the fees are payed in usd ? fees are actually measured on bitcoins while other wallets/exchanges measure the fees in usd or other local currency depending on what country you are in  .

But also when price rises, demand increases too but supply continues to grow as usual. When demand increases, number of transactions increases too which means in order to get confirmation quickly, you have to pay high fee.

the dump or the bear is the one that can trigger demand although some people are still/also buying when they see that the price of cyptos are growing  . 

demand increases too but supply continues to grow as usual

when demand increase  , isnt it the supply decreases  ?

[futile-resistance]

OP must be very observant, there is always an increase in transaction fees when there is an increase in price and this happens because once the price of bitcoin begin to increase, the bitcoin network get congested due to the number of transactions that are being carried out on the network, miners will now have to work much more confirming transaction and that cause a delay in the confirmation of some transactions on the blockchain, since many of the transactions will have to pile up and wait to be included in a block.

Today BTC prices trying to break $5950 levels and at the same time blockchain.com showed me pending transactions up to 30k whereas my electrum wallet suggested very costly fees to be included to attract miners as quick as possible.

I guess when bitcoin markets into relatively peak levels, more people are buying/selling bitcoins or transacting bitcoins in more numbers which triggers higher tx fees. It is a correlations and could be identified easily for any bitcoiner .