[2019-04-04] This Bitcoin Price Rally is Masking a Serious Problem

[MathGame]

This week is looking to end on a positive note for bitcoin, as the cryptocurrency clawed its way above $4,100, adding $1 billion to its market cap in the process.

Bitcoin Price Cracks $4,100 as Bullish Sentiment Grows

The bitcoin-to-dollar rate established an intraday high at $4,103, up 2.24-percent since Friday’s opening price. The session peak also marked bitcoin’s highest mark since February, leading many to believe that the cryptocurrency was finally breaking out of its prolonged bearish bias. The shift in sentiment has been building since bitcoin’s sharp reversal from the $3,100-3,200 range last December, which recovered the asset’s price by as much as 34.23 percent.

Nevertheless, the upside push looked attractive only from the intraday perspective, for it lacked the volume required to declare a breakout action. We covered our view elaboratively here, discussing three converging bearish factors that could withhold bitcoin gains from flourishing any further.

https://www.ccn.com/this-bitcoin-price-rally-is-masking-a-serious-problem

[magneto]

Nevertheless, the upside push looked attractive only from the intraday perspective, for it lacked the volume required to declare a breakout action. We covered our view elaboratively here, discussing three converging bearish factors that could withhold bitcoin gains from flourishing any further.

This article really aged badly, didn't it?

I fail to see any serious problem mentioned at all through the article. In fact, the only problem that they mentioned was the fact that this rally may not be long lasting, which isn't even a problem considering that nobody expects a prolonged bull market at this stage yet. I thought at first they were talking about some fundamental issue about the network judging from the title.

I somewhat echo the still bearish sentiment presented by the article though. I still think that there is a possibility that bitcoin could correct down to $4k, once this short term volatility comes to an end. That said though, expect the second half of the year to be much more bullish as we are already seeing signs of a trend reversal.

[joniboini]

Seems like not everyone believes bitcoin could continue the run up to $6k. I personally believe that breaking $6k would require more than just TA stuff. Need some good fundamental to come up and then push the price even further.

Nevertheless, the upside push looked attractive only from the intraday perspective, for it lacked the volume required to declare a breakout action. We covered our view elaboratively here, discussing three converging bearish factors that could withhold bitcoin gains from flourishing any further.

Seems like the lack of volume doesn't affect the price too much atm. Bitcoin is pretty comfortable sitting at $5k position.

[buwaytress]

This article really aged badly, didn't it?

I fail to see any serious problem mentioned at all through the article. In fact, the only problem that they mentioned was the fact that this rally may not be long lasting, which isn't even a problem considering that nobody expects a prolonged bull market at this stage yet. I thought at first they were talking about some fundamental issue about the network judging from the title.

Which is why news shouldn't take too long with analysis on price, especially when these surges will break quickly either way.

I think the volume problem is an issue, but that's only technical, and, if you believe the explanations that there aren't explanations for the 5k surge, then well, even the surge was technical rather than fundamental, so we get contradictions. Volume almost non existent comparatively for weeks and months, and then super-concentrated in the space of a day. So maybe volume's just not as important as we think, after all, and maybe even less so if accumulation is really happening.

[hatshepsut93]

This week is looking to end on a positive note for bitcoin, as the cryptocurrency clawed its way above $4,100, adding $1 billion to its market cap in the process.

Journalists can't do arithmetic these days? Bitcoin jumped up by ~25%, and its marketcap was way higher than 4 billions, so it got a lot more than 1 billion. It actually added around 17 billions in this week.

Seems like not everyone believes bitcoin could continue the run up to $6k. I personally believe that breaking $6k would require more than just TA stuff. Need some good fundamental to come up and then push the price even further.

Something like new ETF rumors could boost the price, but there's already a strong fundamental in play - the upcoming halvening. The price will continue to grow in this year, maybe not too fast, but still we are entering the bullish territory now.

[1Referee]

Something like new ETF rumors could boost the price, but there's already a strong fundamental in play - the upcoming halvening. The price will continue to grow in this year, maybe not too fast, but still we are entering the bullish territory now.

People are already over ETF rumors. It's known what the SEC's stance is when it comes to an ETF, and there is nothing that can change their mind this year, unless Bitcoin miraculously shows the kind of improvemente they are looking for, but that's not going to happen.

The block halving is what people and investors are focusing on because it's an event that's guaranteed to play out, and it has shown very generous returns in the runup to the actual event in the past. People however shouldn't expect a moonshot. 100-150% from $4000 is what I am aiming for in 2020 when the last 12.5BTC block is minted.

[Betwrong]

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The block halving is what people and investors are focusing on because it's an event that's guaranteed to play out, and it has shown very generous returns in the runup to the actual event in the past. People however shouldn't expect a moonshot. 100-150% from $4000 is what I am aiming for in 2020 when the last 12.5BTC block is minted.

This is a reasonable expectation. Only I think many people have figured that out, and so they've decided to start buying earlier than in 2020, at times when BTC is way below those figures, $8,000-$10,000.


As for the article's TA, it failed miserably. Look at the Bitcoin charts to see what has been happening after the publication (29/03/2019):

[1Referee]

This is a reasonable expectation. Only I think many people have figured that out, and so they've decided to start buying earlier than in 2020, at times when BTC is way below those figures, $8,000-$10,000.

It depends. Smart money always buys in when there is blood flowing through the streets, but dumb money on the other hand buys what is going up, and I am quite certain that they will provide the liquidity smart money needs to unload just before or just after the block halving.

The mass is so focused on price action (regardless of the asset), that they sell just because the price is going down, and buy just because the price is going up. This isn't always bad though. Dumb money that sold early 2018 did very well because they didn't have to ride the market down all the way to $3150 which most hodlers did.